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NFL Draft 2017: Finding Playmaking Defensive Ends Based On Their College Production
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017...ensive-ends-based-on-their-college-production
...PRODUCTION RATIO = (SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS) / NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED
The resulting number gives you a metric with which to evaluate a player's playmaking ability, even if it isn't a one-to-one measure of the frequency of splash plays (sacks or tackles-for-loss) a player recorded per game. That's because officially, a sack also counts as a tackle for loss, so adding up the two numbers is a bit of double-counting. But in terms of the Production Ratio as originally described by Pat Kirwan, sacks plus the total number of TFLs go into the formula.
The ratio is usually calculated over the entire college career of a prospect, but that method can be inaccurate because not every prospect has a four-year career in college. To correct for that, we'll only look at the last two seasons of a player's college career. For the two-year measure, a number above 1.5 is often indicative of premier talent for a pass rusher, a value above 2.0 can be indicative of elite talent.
But before we look at the defensive ends in the 2017 draft class, I'm going to take a little detour. Last week, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com published his first mock draft of the year, and had the Cowboys picking a pass rusher in Takkarist McKinley.
The Cowboys need pass rushers; they can no longer rely on Randy Gregory. McKinley has double-digit sack potential.
"Double-digit sack potential" is a term that's liberally thrown around in the lead-up to the draft, but just because it's an over-used term doesn't make it any truer. But it does reflect the unrealistic expectations many fans have about pass rushers in the draft. I know almost nothing about Takkarist McKinley, but I can state with almost absolute certainty that McKinley will not be a double-digit sack player in the NFL.
Why? Because double-digit sack players are exceedingly rare. Of all the edge rushers drafted in the six drafts between 2010 and 2015, only four have managed to average 10 sacks per year. The table below shows the top pass rushers (DEs/OLBs as ranked by sacks per year) drafted between 2010 and 2015 and includes each player's Production Ratio.
Top Edge Rushers drafted 2010-2015
Year Rnd (Pick) Tm Player Pos Total Sacks Sacks/Year Prod Ratio
2011 1 (11) HOU J.J. Watt DE 76 12.7 1.85
2011 1 (2) DEN Von Miller LB 73.5 12.3 2.52
2014 1 (5) OAK Khalil Mack LB 30 10.0 2.40
2011 3 (70) KAN Justin Houston LB 60 10.0 2.28
2011 1 (16) WAS Ryan Kerrigan DE 58.5 9.8 2.77
2015 1 (8) ATL Vic Beasley LB 19.5 9.8 2.67
2012 1 (21) NWE Chandler Jones DE 47 9.4 1.28
2015 3 (88) MIN Danielle Hunter DE 18.5 9.3 0.98
2011 1 (14) STL Robert Quinn DE 54 9.0 2.31
2015 2 (58) ARI Markus Golden DE 16.5 8.3 1.83
2013 1 (5) DET Ezekiel Ansah DE 32 8.0 0.70
2011 1 (7) SFO Aldon Smith DE 47.5 7.9 1.96
2011 1 (24) NOR Cameron Jordan DE 46.5 7.8 1.34
2012 1 (26) HOU Whitney Mercilus DE 37.5 7.5 1.63
2012 3 (72) MIA Olivier Vernon LB 37.5 7.5 1.13
2010 1 (15) NYG Jason Pierre-Paul DE 50 7.1 1.61 ...
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017...ensive-ends-based-on-their-college-production
...PRODUCTION RATIO = (SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS) / NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED
The resulting number gives you a metric with which to evaluate a player's playmaking ability, even if it isn't a one-to-one measure of the frequency of splash plays (sacks or tackles-for-loss) a player recorded per game. That's because officially, a sack also counts as a tackle for loss, so adding up the two numbers is a bit of double-counting. But in terms of the Production Ratio as originally described by Pat Kirwan, sacks plus the total number of TFLs go into the formula.
The ratio is usually calculated over the entire college career of a prospect, but that method can be inaccurate because not every prospect has a four-year career in college. To correct for that, we'll only look at the last two seasons of a player's college career. For the two-year measure, a number above 1.5 is often indicative of premier talent for a pass rusher, a value above 2.0 can be indicative of elite talent.
But before we look at the defensive ends in the 2017 draft class, I'm going to take a little detour. Last week, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com published his first mock draft of the year, and had the Cowboys picking a pass rusher in Takkarist McKinley.
The Cowboys need pass rushers; they can no longer rely on Randy Gregory. McKinley has double-digit sack potential.
"Double-digit sack potential" is a term that's liberally thrown around in the lead-up to the draft, but just because it's an over-used term doesn't make it any truer. But it does reflect the unrealistic expectations many fans have about pass rushers in the draft. I know almost nothing about Takkarist McKinley, but I can state with almost absolute certainty that McKinley will not be a double-digit sack player in the NFL.
Why? Because double-digit sack players are exceedingly rare. Of all the edge rushers drafted in the six drafts between 2010 and 2015, only four have managed to average 10 sacks per year. The table below shows the top pass rushers (DEs/OLBs as ranked by sacks per year) drafted between 2010 and 2015 and includes each player's Production Ratio.
Top Edge Rushers drafted 2010-2015
Year Rnd (Pick) Tm Player Pos Total Sacks Sacks/Year Prod Ratio
2011 1 (11) HOU J.J. Watt DE 76 12.7 1.85
2011 1 (2) DEN Von Miller LB 73.5 12.3 2.52
2014 1 (5) OAK Khalil Mack LB 30 10.0 2.40
2011 3 (70) KAN Justin Houston LB 60 10.0 2.28
2011 1 (16) WAS Ryan Kerrigan DE 58.5 9.8 2.77
2015 1 (8) ATL Vic Beasley LB 19.5 9.8 2.67
2012 1 (21) NWE Chandler Jones DE 47 9.4 1.28
2015 3 (88) MIN Danielle Hunter DE 18.5 9.3 0.98
2011 1 (14) STL Robert Quinn DE 54 9.0 2.31
2015 2 (58) ARI Markus Golden DE 16.5 8.3 1.83
2013 1 (5) DET Ezekiel Ansah DE 32 8.0 0.70
2011 1 (7) SFO Aldon Smith DE 47.5 7.9 1.96
2011 1 (24) NOR Cameron Jordan DE 46.5 7.8 1.34
2012 1 (26) HOU Whitney Mercilus DE 37.5 7.5 1.63
2012 3 (72) MIA Olivier Vernon LB 37.5 7.5 1.13
2010 1 (15) NYG Jason Pierre-Paul DE 50 7.1 1.61 ...
