DFWJC
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As I've done for the last several years, I looked at every trade in last years draft and compared it to the trade value chart.
It's unbelievably consistent and reliable.
Crazy even
I looked at all 26 trades involving only draft picks (not players) in the 2019 draft.
Just simply using the standard Trade Value Chart, I found the correlation to almost always be at 95-100%
23 of 26 trades were almost dead on and the other 3 were close enough.
Pretty amazing
Ironically, one of the worst correlations of the 26 was when Dallas traded up to grab our center at pick 146. Not saying it was not worth it, but by the books, we overpaid more than almost any other 2019 trade. If you like the player though, I have no real issue.
When future picks were involved the match was always fixed by assuming GMs devalue future picks by about 55% each year forward. It works out to about 1 round of devaluation each year forward.
The matches were usually almost exact...98-100%
The bottom line is if you do a mock or prose a trade in the draft zone, just know that in real life, the GMs stick to that chart almost to a silly extent.
No special discounts or special treatment to move from 20 to 10, for example, to "get a QB".
The facts say that is not true based on the last draft and the chart match.
If the proposed trade does not follow the chart to within 90% or so, it is not realistic at all.
The lone exception I've seen in the 1st round in the last 10 years was in 2016 at the very top of the draft. Those "only" matched at 80-87%
Here's the chart
https://BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1/draftchart.php
Go Cowboys
It's unbelievably consistent and reliable.
Crazy even
I looked at all 26 trades involving only draft picks (not players) in the 2019 draft.
Just simply using the standard Trade Value Chart, I found the correlation to almost always be at 95-100%
23 of 26 trades were almost dead on and the other 3 were close enough.
Pretty amazing
Ironically, one of the worst correlations of the 26 was when Dallas traded up to grab our center at pick 146. Not saying it was not worth it, but by the books, we overpaid more than almost any other 2019 trade. If you like the player though, I have no real issue.
When future picks were involved the match was always fixed by assuming GMs devalue future picks by about 55% each year forward. It works out to about 1 round of devaluation each year forward.
The matches were usually almost exact...98-100%
The bottom line is if you do a mock or prose a trade in the draft zone, just know that in real life, the GMs stick to that chart almost to a silly extent.
No special discounts or special treatment to move from 20 to 10, for example, to "get a QB".
The facts say that is not true based on the last draft and the chart match.
If the proposed trade does not follow the chart to within 90% or so, it is not realistic at all.
The lone exception I've seen in the 1st round in the last 10 years was in 2016 at the very top of the draft. Those "only" matched at 80-87%
Here's the chart
https://BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1/draftchart.php
Go Cowboys
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