NFL Next Gen Rush Stats on Pollard, Henry, Rico, etc

[VaqueroTD]

8+ Defenders in the Box (8+D%): On every play, Next Gen Stats calculates how many defenders are stacked in the box at snap. Using that logic, DIB% calculates how often does a rusher see 8 or more defenders in the box against them. Of all the new analytic stats, I personally like this one a lot because it's not subjective. Either there, or not.

• Derrick Henry is 1st in NFL, incredible 43.33% of time! Almost half the snaps he takes! He may not be as washed up as some think. With Tannehill out, defenses know there is only one way the Titans will beat them.
• Pollard is 14th in NFL among RBs with over 100 carries at 13.89%. Stephen Jones in his PC yesterday said the change on CeeDee in passing game will allow Pollard and RBs more opportunity. I assume he's talking about moving Lamb to X receiver to replace Gallup, and using more snap motion for all of them? So Pollard not getting the easy road this year, but defenses not game planning against it as much as Jones implies.
• Rico not on the list even though he has minimum amount rush attempts. Don't know what this means.
• Last year, Pollard was 16th in NFL with 100+ carries, and at 22.28%. He faced tougher defensive adjustments. Zeke actually had it easier at 21.21% even being in so many obvious run situations.
• The next guy that has no support from pass game this year and they are just trying to shut him down is Tyler Allgeier on Falcons. Only his second season, Falcons aren't trading him. Check link above if you want to see if there are any guys ready for a breakout with a decent pass game to support them. Before he was traded to the Niners, Christian McCaffrey was averaging 30%-40% of his snaps with Panthers with 8+ in box, which was near top of league.

Rush Yards % over Expected: This is more subjective, but is approved by NFL, not a third-party site. They have it for both receivers and running backs. They don't go into detail what it means, but I think an easy way of thinking about it, is how many more yards the running back gets when he breaks tackles, jukes, etc. This is the percentage of extra yards on each run play this year.

• There is debate on if Pollard is his same self after the injury. Remember that play where he was run down in the open field by the DB? Pollard is almost bottom of the NFL on this list, at 27.9%, see for yourself. This include any RB with any amount carries. Last year? He was much higher at 40.9% Zeke slightly lower last year at 38.6%.
• This year, Henry is 5th among RBs with 100+ carries this year. AND Zeke has same % as Henry this year, although not nearly as many carries. Both have double the % of rush yards over expected gain over Pollard, at 44.8% and 44.4%.
• McCaffrey one of best in league at this, even in games without his All-Pro LT.
• Rico again not on the stat list.

Conclusions?

• Pollard probably has lost a step. He is 3.9/carry this year versus 5.2/carry last year. It doesn't help explain situational play calling last year, but Pollard had more yards/carry with more defenders to stop him. He also broke more tackles, made more moves, etc... And that any fan can see on the field. Greg Olsen gave a good summation about it in the game. It's just different when you're the man. Body takes more damage. Doesn't always work out. For you who have watched the Boys since 90's, you saw this with Hambrick replacing Emmitt. So you have that and the injury, we need to get him some help.
• Henry would probably be as impactful as McCaffrey. Word is they won't trade him anymore. But you can see that he IS the Titans offense, even at 30 years old. Teams are just keying in on him. Our offense would open up with him same way 49ers did with McCaffrey.
• I wish they had more visibility on Rico Dowdle. Be interesting to see what he is doing vs Pollard.

 

[Dallasfann]

Derrick Henry is already recorded as one of the fastest runners this year at 21 MPH....just as fast as Achane, Mostert and slightly slower then Tyreke Hill...He is 30 years old, 6'3 250 LBS..the other 3 guys are all 5'10 or shorter. I've yet to reply to someone who disagrees with me that Henry wouldn't help this team, because they are flat wrong. He no doubt about it would put this offense on another level. He'd be our best back since 2016 Zeke the second he walked in the door.

 

[G2]

Waiting for the big play making ability. So far, I think the longest run is 30 yards.

 

[G2]

Derrick Henry is already recorded as one of the fastest runners this year at 21 MPH....just as fast as Achane, Mostert and slightly slower then Tyreke Hill...He is 30 years old, 6'3 250 LBS..the other 3 guys are all 5'10 or shorter. I've yet to reply to someone who disagrees with me that Henry wouldn't help this team, because they are flat wrong. He no doubt about it would put this offense on another level. He'd be our best back since 2016 Zeke the second he walked in the door.

I do not understand the hesitation. It would make a huge impact.

 

[Havic]

Titans record doesn’t indicate the season is lost, especially if levis continues to play well. Titans will keep him

 

[VaqueroTD]

Titans record doesn’t indicate the season is lost, especially if levis continues to play well. Titans will keep him

Was heart-broken when they started winning again. LOL Have wanted Henry on this team since offseason.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

The thing you dont mention is pollards plays from last year to this year. We had zeke pounding the middle. Now we are asking tony to do it (more?).

So tony just cant get a head of steam going which makes it harder from him to evade and get top end speed.

Some mocked zeke for needing a hole but any rb needs 'em. Not avoiding defender on hand off.

 

[thunderpimp91]

First off thanks for the info, it's an interesting quick read. With that said though I have wondered if we need to redefine what a stacked box looks like in 2023 as the base offense for pretty much everyone is 1TE, 1RB sets. Should a 7 man box vs 3 receiver sets be considered stacked? a 6 man box with four receivers? IMO anytime you have more defenders than blockers in the box to me that is stacked, and just wonder if the numbers get skewed a bit for offenses like Tennessee who may play a lot more 2TE sets?

 

[G2]

The thing you dont mention is pollards plays from last year to this year. We had zeke pounding the middle. Now we are asking tony to do it (more?).

So tony just cant get a head of steam going which makes it harder from him to evade and get top end speed.

Some mocked zeke for needing a hole but any rb needs 'em. Not avoiding defender on hand off.

It's got be a ton easier when you have a featured RB wearing down a defense. Pollard could pop in here and there and bang out big chunk runs.
2022 longest run - 57
2023 - 31

 

[VaqueroTD]

The thing you dont mention is pollards plays from last year to this year. We had zeke pounding the middle. Now we are asking tony to do it (more?).

So tony just cant get a head of steam going which makes it harder from him to evade and get top end speed.

Some mocked zeke for needing a hole but any rb needs 'em. Not avoiding defender on hand off.

No, I mention that. Can't take into account situational play calling from last year. Although I was SHOCKED to see Zeke faced less 8+ men in the box since he had so many short/goal line obvious run situations. Sort of just assuming it would be opposite for Pollard. If he was in more pass situations last year, or just more yardage on downs etc., we would see more 8+ men in box situations this year but he faced them much more last year.

The other thing this doesn't account for is changes on the offensive line. According to Cavanaugh yesterday, and he's just quoting some guy who is known as an O-Line Training Guru, the problem is Big Mac pulls them more often with his new offense. I don't know if anyone tracks that or not, so don't know how to find it. But I could see that being a problem with so many older or more powerful guys. But bottom line, it's still almost the same offensive line as last year Pollard is running behind.

 

[VaqueroTD]

First off thanks for the info, it's an interesting quick read. With that said though I have wondered if we need to redefine what a stacked box looks like in 2023 as the base offense for pretty much everyone is 1TE, 1RB sets. Should a 7 man box vs 3 receiver sets be considered stacked? a 6 man box with four receivers? IMO anytime you have more defenders than blockers in the box to me that is stacked, and just wonder if the numbers get skewed a bit for offenses like Tennessee who may play a lot more 2TE sets?

Good point. They don't say what the qualifier is on the Next Gen Site. For me, bottom line is they are closer to the running back and able to stop him more. I was thinking about this when Kellen called the offense, since Zeke had lower 8-men in box than I expected. Was because Kellen loved to put 3-4 WRs out there in short yardage situations?

 

[xwalker]

8+ Defenders in the Box (8+D%): On every play, Next Gen Stats calculates how many defenders are stacked in the box at snap. Using that logic, DIB% calculates how often does a rusher see 8 or more defenders in the box against them. Of all the new analytic stats, I personally like this one a lot because it's not subjective. Either there, or not.

• Derrick Henry is 1st in NFL, incredible 43.33% of time! Almost half the snaps he takes! He may not be as washed up as some think. With Tannehill out, defenses know there is only one way the Titans will beat them.
• Pollard is 14th in NFL among RBs with over 100 carries at 13.89%. Stephen Jones in his PC yesterday said the change on CeeDee in passing game will allow Pollard and RBs more opportunity. I assume he's talking about moving Lamb to X receiver to replace Gallup, and using more snap motion for all of them? So Pollard not getting the easy road this year, but defenses not game planning against it as much as Jones implies.
• Rico not on the list even though he has minimum amount rush attempts. Don't know what this means.
• Last year, Pollard was 16th in NFL with 100+ carries, and at 22.28%. He faced tougher defensive adjustments. Zeke actually had it easier at 21.21% even being in so many obvious run situations.
• The next guy that has no support from pass game this year and they are just trying to shut him down is Tyler Allgeier on Falcons. Only his second season, Falcons aren't trading him. Check link above if you want to see if there are any guys ready for a breakout with a decent pass game to support them. Before he was traded to the Niners, Christian McCaffrey was averaging 30%-40% of his snaps with Panthers with 8+ in box, which was near top of league.

Rush Yards % over Expected: This is more subjective, but is approved by NFL, not a third-party site. They have it for both receivers and running backs. They don't go into detail what it means, but I think an easy way of thinking about it, is how many more yards the running back gets when he breaks tackles, jukes, etc. This is the percentage of extra yards on each run play this year.

• There is debate on if Pollard is his same self after the injury. Remember that play where he was run down in the open field by the DB? Pollard is almost bottom of the NFL on this list, at 27.9%, see for yourself. This include any RB with any amount carries. Last year? He was much higher at 40.9% Zeke slightly lower last year at 38.6%.
• This year, Henry is 5th among RBs with 100+ carries this year. AND Zeke has same % as Henry this year, although not nearly as many carries. Both have double the % of rush yards over expected gain over Pollard, at 44.8% and 44.4%.
• McCaffrey one of best in league at this, even in games without his All-Pro LT.
• Rico again not on the stat list.

Conclusions?

• Pollard probably has lost a step. He is 3.9/carry this year versus 5.2/carry last year. It doesn't help explain situational play calling last year, but Pollard had more yards/carry with more defenders to stop him. He also broke more tackles, made more moves, etc... And that any fan can see on the field. Greg Olsen gave a good summation about it in the game. It's just different when you're the man. Body takes more damage. Doesn't always work out. For you who have watched the Boys since 90's, you saw this with Hambrick replacing Emmitt. So you have that and the injury, we need to get him some help.
• Henry would probably be as impactful as McCaffrey. Word is they won't trade him anymore. But you can see that he IS the Titans offense, even at 30 years old. Teams are just keying in on him. Our offense would open up with him same way 49ers did with McCaffrey.
• I wish they had more visibility on Rico Dowdle. Be interesting to see what he is doing vs Pollard.

The Cowboys #1 need is to improve the run game.
- It makes all other areas of the team better.

I don't know where the narrative came from that Derrick Henry is "washed up".

Derrick Henry in 2022:
- 1538 rushing yards (only 2 seasons in career with more).
- 13 TDs (only 2 seasons in career with more).
- 4.4 yards/carry
- 33 catches for 398 yards (both are almost double his career average).

2023:
- 4.4 ypc
- 15 catches in 7 games (approximately his career full-season average).

 

[VaqueroTD]

The Cowboys #1 need is to improve the run game.
- It makes all other areas of the team better.

I don't know where the narrative came from that Derrick Henry is "washed up".

Derrick Henry in 2022:
- 1538 rushing yards (only 2 seasons in career with more).
- 13 TDs (only 2 seasons in career with more).
- 4.4 yards/carry
- 33 catches for 398 yards (both are almost double his career average).

2023:
- 4.4 ypc
- 15 catches in 7 games (approximately his career full-season average).

I've read and seen it on the boom tube. Just comes with the age. And reason why no one has swooped in and made an offer the Titans can't refuse is because everyone knows the decline happens at some point very soon, if not already happening.

But my point on this is Henry is playing at a disadvantage right now. Like McCaffrey, he'll shine on a new team. McCaffrey didn't go to a great passing team, no one knew Purdy was going to stand out. Just a great coach.

Until seeing the next gen stats spell it out even more, I still wasn't worried because he was 250lbs, 6'3". There have always been some big boys who prolonged their RB career with size making up for speed, and he's one who could definitely do it. Main worry I had was the ego. Can Henry take less snaps to let Pollard also play realizing it gives them best shot at a Super Bowl.

This whole trade just makes too much sense for Jerry to do it. LOL And Coach Mac needs to stop being the politician on the sidelines. Dude... Jerry is going to fire you anyways if you don't make it to Conference Championship. Tell him it's now or never. Make it happen. Sucks that now we have to give up something more to change their mind. He's been available for a while. But recent games have shown parity is still there. Get that physical team you need!

 

[Coogiguy03]

Titans record doesn’t indicate the season is lost, especially if levis continues to play well. Titans will keep him

we can send them a back sheesh in the trade

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Henry's not washed up entirely he's just not a difference maker, and not worth the acquisition cost & contract. His numbers are wildly skewed by one run against Baltimore, which came out of wildcat on a trick play against a 6-man box - with a play-side numbers advantage. Take away that carry, and all of a sudden he's averaging just under 4 ypc. It's not necessarily fair to players to filter out the big plays, but in such a limited scope you have to take out outliers.

43% is the number of his attempts against 8+ defenders, not the number of snaps, and it doesn't account for personnel (there's a big difference between an 8-man box against 11 and 13 or 22 personnel). There's nothing in the NGS data to suggest he's effective against negative fronts.

RYOE/ATT is really the only RYOE number that gives a reasonable comparison, and there's no functional difference between Henry and the 12-15 players around him.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Henry's not washed up entirely he's just not a difference maker, and not worth the acquisition cost & contract. His numbers are wildly skewed by one run against Baltimore, which came out of wildcat on a trick play against a 6-man box - with a play-side numbers advantage. Take away that carry, and all of a sudden he's averaging just under 4 ypc. It's not necessarily fair to players to filter out the big plays, but in such a limited scope you have to take out outliers.

43% is the number of his attempts against 8+ defenders, not the number of snaps, and it doesn't account for personnel (there's a big difference between an 8-man box against 11 and 13 or 22 personnel). There's nothing in the NGS data to suggest he's effective against negative fronts.

RYOE/ATT is really the only RYOE number that gives a reasonable comparison, and there's no functional difference between Henry and the 12-15 players around him.

That was Thunderpimp's point on the personnels, and I hear you on snaps, but no matter how you try to whitewash this, dude is constantly playing against defenses geared to stop him, especially vs other RBs. We don't have an elite pass game, but we definitely have one good enough to give him more support. Then you factor in you're rotating him with Pollard, which keeps him fresher. I would probably cringe if they had to go as high as 2nd round too, but I think this would be what the team needs to go with some of the new wrinkles on offense that seem to be working better. Teams that can out-muscle us have been our Achilles Heel going back to even the Garrett Days. Both sides of ball.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

That was Thunderpimp's point on the personnels, and I hear you on snaps, but no matter how you try to whitewash this, dude is constantly playing against defenses geared to stop him, especially vs other RBs.

But they mostly are stopping him.

 

[Creeper]

If we are going to talk about RBs we have to factor in the OL. They have been awful this season. Last year Martin and Steele were collapsing the right side and making space outside for Pollard to run. This year both areunderperformaing and Pollard has nowhere to go. Then look at the Tes and WRs. Their blockign is awful too, but to break big runs those guys have to get tot he 3nd and third level and get in the way of defenders. They can;t even do that.

Jim Brown couldn't run behind this offensive line.

 

[VaqueroTD]

But they mostly are stopping him.

Because he leads the league in rush defense formations. It takes an extra man to take down a 250lb bowling ball.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Because he leads the league in rush defense formations. It takes an extra man to take down a 250lb bowling ball.

Just because he's got a higher rate of those carries doesn't mean he's having more success against them than other backs. It also doesn't say how many carries that is and the RYOE and other stats you're pointing to don't filter for those fronts. For all we know, he's averaging 2 yards per carry against 8+ defenders.

10% of his yards came on one carry against a light box, and it still means that the majority of his carries are coming against lighter boxes.

You're making leaps in logic that aren't there, because that information isn't granular enough.