NFL Next Gen Rush Stats on Pollard, Henry, Rico, etc

[VaqueroTD]

Just because he's got a higher rate of those carries doesn't mean he's having more success against them than other backs. It also doesn't say how many carries that is and the RYOE and other stats you're pointing to don't filter for those fronts. For all we know, he's averaging 2 yards per carry against 8+ defenders.

10% of his yards came on one carry against a light box, and it still means that the majority of his carries are coming against lighter boxes.

You're making leaps in logic that aren't there, because that information isn't granular enough.

That's not a leap in logic. 50% of the time he runs there is an extra man to stop him. True it doesn't say the yards for 8+ and yard for less. But this is where common sense comes into play. Don't need stats for this. If they're playing that much, it's because he will tear them up if they don't adjust. Or at least the perception is still out there he will. Bring that to the Cowboys, suddenly Cooks and Fergy are open all the time now too.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Here's his two biggest plays of the year.


Neither of these are against negative fronts, and they count for nearly 1/5 of his production. If we assume that every other carry he's had is against those 8+ boxes, he's at 118 attempts and 3.8 ypc.

 

[Pass2Run]

Derrick Henry is already recorded as one of the fastest runners this year at 21 MPH....just as fast as Achane, Mostert and slightly slower then Tyreke Hill...He is 30 years old, 6'3 250 LBS..the other 3 guys are all 5'10 or shorter. I've yet to reply to someone who disagrees with me that Henry wouldn't help this team, because they are flat wrong. He no doubt about it would put this offense on another level. He'd be our best back since 2016 Zeke the second he walked in the door.

The problem is you have a team full of guys who know they deserve to get paid.. and bringing in Henry would be an *** yew to them.. which is bad for morale.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Here's his two biggest plays of the year.


Neither of these are against negative fronts, and they count for nearly 1/5 of his production. If we assume that every other carry he's had is against those 8+ boxes, he's at 118 attempts and 3.8 ypc.

I still don't think you get it. What do big plays have to do with this? Pollard is the playmaker. Henry is the bruiser.

 

[Pass2Run]

I do not understand the hesitation. It would make a huge impact.

So, just give away draft picks? I don't understand the impulsive urge.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

That's not a leap in logic. 50% of the time he runs there is an extra man to stop him. True it doesn't say the yards for 8+ and yard for less. But this is where common sense comes into play. Don't need stats for this. If they're playing that much, it's because he will tear them up if they don't adjust. Or at least the perception is still out there he will. Bring that to the Cowboys, suddenly Cooks and Fergy are open all the time now too.

Yes, you do need stats for this. I guess we can do the math on it - it is 52 carries against those loaded fronts. We don't know how many of his yards have come on those 52 plays, but if his biggest plays came against light boxes, the logic is that those carries are where he is more successful. That is true for every running back in the league. You're making a leap that he's having some unique level of success on those 52 carries, but there is nothing to suggest that's the case. Doing something a lot of times doesn't mean it's being done well.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

I still don't think you get it. What do big plays have to do with this? Pollard is the playmaker. Henry is the bruiser.

Because his big plays aren't coming against loaded boxes, so we have to assume most of his production isn't either.

You're taking 43% of his carries and combining them with the production from the other 57%.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Because his big plays aren't coming against loaded boxes, so we have to assume most of his production isn't either.

You're taking 43% of his carries and combining them with the production from the other 57%.

You use 2 plays to prove it? And you say my logic is bad. LOL

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

You use 2 plays to prove it? And you say my logic is bad. LOL

2 plays that count for a huge chunk of his production. Outside of those he has 118 carries for 433 yards. 52 of them are against 8+ boxes. It is impossible to expect anything more than ~150 of those 433 yards to be against 8+ boxes, when such a significant piece has already been accounted for against the light boxes.

How many yards do you think he actually has on those 52 carries? Anything more than 200, would mean he's averaging 3.5 ypc against light boxes. Trading for that player would be stupid.

 

[Pass2Run]

I've read and seen it on the boom tube. Just comes with the age. And reason why no one has swooped in and made an offer the Titans can't refuse is because everyone knows the decline happens at some point very soon, if not already happening.

But my point on this is Henry is playing at a disadvantage right now. Like McCaffrey, he'll shine on a new team. McCaffrey didn't go to a great passing team, no one knew Purdy was going to stand out. Just a great coach.

Until seeing the next gen stats spell it out even more, I still wasn't worried because he was 250lbs, 6'3". There have always been some big boys who prolonged their RB career with size making up for speed, and he's one who could definitely do it. Main worry I had was the ego. Can Henry take less snaps to let Pollard also play realizing it gives them best shot at a Super Bowl.

This whole trade just makes too much sense for Jerry to do it. LOL And Coach Mac needs to stop being the politician on the sidelines. Dude... Jerry is going to fire you anyways if you don't make it to Conference Championship. Tell him it's now or never. Make it happen. Sucks that now we have to give up something more to change their mind. He's been available for a while. But recent games have shown parity is still there. Get that physical team you need!

What trade? What are the parameters? What's the specific offer?

 

[VaqueroTD]

2 plays that count for a huge chunk of his production. Outside of those he has 118 carries for 433 yards. 52 of them are against 8+ boxes. It is impossible to expect anything more than ~150 of those 433 yards to be against 8+ boxes, when such a significant piece has already been accounted for against the light boxes.

We're just going to have to disagree on this one. All accounts are it's not going to happen anyway.

I think this team needs more big men. RB, OL, DT, S, etc... I like the speed, but so far, they haven't proven it will get them over the hump. Definitely get their next test this week with the Eagles.

 

[G2]

So, just give away draft picks? I don't understand the impulsive urge.

I'm not content with the running game. It's that simple. It doesn't even have to be Henry. Just improve it.

 

[blueblood70]

it would be crazy if ezekiel elliott ends up back here.....the haters will be happy they can complain again...

 

[Dallasfann]

2 plays that count for a huge chunk of his production. Outside of those he has 118 carries for 433 yards. 52 of them are against 8+ boxes. It is impossible to expect anything more than ~150 of those 433 yards to be against 8+ boxes, when such a significant piece has already been accounted for against the light boxes.

How many yards do you think he actually has on those 52 carries? Anything more than 200, would mean he's averaging 3.5 ypc against light boxes. Trading for that player would be stupid.

By far the worst logic I've seen. I can make any RB look terrible. Like watch this...McCaffrey isn't very good. If you took away his 2 longest runs of the year he's only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. DUMB

 

[CCBoy]

Derrick Henry is already recorded as one of the fastest runners this year at 21 MPH....just as fast as Achane, Mostert and slightly slower then Tyreke Hill...He is 30 years old, 6'3 250 LBS..the other 3 guys are all 5'10 or shorter. I've yet to reply to someone who disagrees with me that Henry wouldn't help this team, because they are flat wrong. He no doubt about it would put this offense on another level. He'd be our best back since 2016 Zeke the second he walked in the door.

Hill is the fastest receiver producing volume and New Orleans has a non-drafted receiver showing up now.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

By far the worst logic I've seen. I can make any RB look terrible. Like watch this...McCaffrey isn't very good. If you took away his 2 longest runs of the year he's only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. DUMB

Holy cow this is not even close to the point.

Go ahead and tell me what you think his ypc is on those carries against loaded boxes.

Let me guess, you can't? Shut up.

 

[Dallasfann]

Holy cow this is not even close to the point.

Go ahead and tell me what you think his ypc is on those carries against loaded boxes.

Let me guess, you can't? Shut up.

You're creating make believe numbers to fit a dumb agenda. What are Henrys YPC in a loaded box with the Cowboys offense compared to the Titans? How many loaded boxes will he get in the Cowboys offense compared to the Titans?

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

You're creating make believe numbers to fit a dumb agenda. What are Henrys YPC in a loaded box with the Cowboys offense compared to the Titans? How many loaded boxes will he get in the Cowboys offense compared to the Titans?

No I'm not lol. I'm literally using the numbers from the OP.

Take a nap.