NFL Offensive Rankings Without D/ST Scores

[dstovall5]

I've heard constantly that if you take away our defensive scores, then our offense wouldn't be ranked anywhere near it is now (3rd in PPG). So I wondered if that had any truth to it, or if it was just a false inaccurate statement. Well this is what I came up with by taking out D/ST scores.

1 Denver 2.5 D/ST - 38.2 OFF = 35.7 PPG W/O D/ST
2 New Orleans 0.0 D/ST - 26.4 OFF = 26.4 PPG W/O D/ST
3 New England 0.5 D/ST - 26.8 OFF = 26.3 PPG W/O D/ST
4 Seattle 1.9 D/ST - 27.5 OFF = 25.4 PPG W/O D/ST
5 Chicago 3.2 D/ST - 28.3 OFF = 25.1 PPG W/O D/ST
6 Philadelphia 0.7 D/ST - 25.7 OFF = 25 PPG W/O D/ST
7 Dallas 3.2 D/ST - 27.5 OFF = 24.3 PPG W/O D/ST
7 Detroit 2.3 D/ST - 26.6 OFF = 24.3 PPG W/O D/ST
9 San Diego 0.5 D/ST - 24.5 OFF = 24 PPG W/O D/ST
10 Cincinnati 2.7 D/ST - 25.7 OFF = 23 PPG W/O D/ST
11 Indianapolis 1.2 D/ST - 24.1 OFF = 22.9 PPG W/O D/ST
12 Green Bay 1.6 D/ST - 24.3 OFF = 22.7 PPG W/O D/ST
13 San Francisco 1.8 D/ST - 24.3 OFF = 22.5 PPG W/O D/ST
14 Pittsburgh 1.2 D/ST - 22.4 = 22.2 PPG W/O D/ST
15 Minnesota 2.1 D/ST - 24.2 OFF = 22.1 PPG W/O D/ST
16 Carolina 1.1 D/ST - 22.9 OFF = 21.8 PPG W/O D/ST
17 Arizona 2.5 D/ST - 23.5 OFF = 21.5 PPG W/O D/ST
18 Kansas City 5.4 D/ST - 26.4 OFF = 21 PPG W/O D/ST
19 Tennessee 1.6 D/ST - 22.5 OFF = 20.9 PPG W/O D/ST
20 Miami 1.2 D/ST - 22.0 OFF = 20.8 PPG W/O D/ST
21 Atlanta 1.6 D/ST - 21.7 OFF = 20.1 PPG W/O D/ST
22 Baltimore 1.6 D/ST - 21.4 OFF = 19.8 PPG W/O D/ST
23 Buffalo 1.6 D/ST - 21.0 OFF = 19.4 PPG W/O D/ST
24 St Louis 3.3 D/ST - 22.2 OFF = 18.9 PPG W/O D/ST
25 Washington 2.7 D/ST - 21.5 OFF = 18.8 PPG W/O D/ST
26 Cleveland 1.6 D/ST - 19.9 OFF = 18.3 PPG W/O D/ST
26 NY Giants 1.0 D/ST - 19.3 OFF = 18.3 PPG W/O D/ST
28 Oakland 2.1 D/ST - 20.3 OFF = 18.2 PPG W/O D/ST
29 Houston 1.2 D/ST - 19.2 OFF = 18 PPG W/O D/ST
30 Tampa Bay 1.8 D/ST - 18.8 OFF = 17.0 PPG W/O D/ST
31 NY Jets 1.2 D/ST - 17.4 OFF = 16.2 PPG W/O D/ST
32 Jacksonville 1.5 D/ST - 15.5 OFF = 14 PPG W/O D/ST

By taking out D/ST scores it ended up dropping our PPG by 3.2, but we're still ranked 7th in PPG out of 32 teams. I wouldn't exactly call it a drastic change as some have indicated it would've been, we only dropped from 3rd to 7th. I know some like to point out that on offense we struggle moving the ball, and that's true to an extent, but the fact is we DO have one of the better offenses in the league. We may struggle moving the ball, but we make up for it with our RZ TD efficiency which is only 2nd to Denver.

Sources
1) http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game
2) http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/defensive-points-per-game
3) http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/special-teams-points-per-game

 

[TrailBlazer]

22nd in total offense is more pertinent to the way we have been playing of late. Ya know, how we almost set a record for not being able to convert a 3rd down..? That happened. We're not as good as you would have us believe.

 

[dstovall5]

22nd in total offense is more pertinent to the way we have been playing of late. Ya know, how we almost set a record for not being able to convert a 3rd down..? That happened. We're not as good as you would have us believe.

We've already had this discussion ... RZE is a lot more important than yards, those yards are meaningless if you can't turn them into TDs. Last year we were 7th in yards, yet 14th in PPG, the reason? We were 20th in RZE, meaning we couldn't convert those yards into TDs. If you disagree that's fine, but no point in going in a circle round and round.

 

[TTexasTT]

22nd in total offense is more pertinent to the way we have been playing of late. Ya know, how we almost set a record for not being able to convert a 3rd down..? That happened. We're not as good as you would have us believe.

What record are you speaking of?

 

[TrailBlazer]

What record are you speaking of?

The streak where we couldn't convert a 3rd down

 

[TTexasTT]

The streak where we couldn't convert a 3rd down

I know but I dont remember them saying anything about a record. Which record are you talking about.

 

[TrailBlazer]

We've already had this discussion ... RZE is a lot more important than yards, those yards are meaningless if you can't turn them into TDs. Last year we were 7th in yards, yet 14th in PPG, the reason? We were 20th in RZE, meaning we couldn't convert those yards into TDs. If you disagree that's fine, but no point in going in a circle round and round.

All that is fine and dandy. I disagree with your assertion that this is a good offense. We're ranked 30th in punts per drive offensively. Punting nearly half the time.

 

[Idgit]

That stat will still be skewed based on how many series the offense actually gets. Any idea how we stack up in terms of points/offensive series?

 

[Tabascocat]

That stat will still be skewed based on how many series the offense actually gets. Any idea how we stack up in terms of points/offensive series?

Was going to ask that along with TOP.

 

[dstovall5]

That stat will still be skewed based on how many series the offense actually gets. Any idea how we stack up in terms of points/offensive series?

I glanced over all the categories and I didn't see a points per series, but I did find this -

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-play

We ranked 2nd in points per play, but I know that's not what you asked for.

You can check the categories as well and see if they have one, maybe I missed it ? Here's a list of all their categories, it's a good resource for all kinds of statistics -

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stats/

 

[TrailBlazer]

I know but I dont remember them saying anything about a record. Which record are you talking about.

I know it was said. You look it up. I know we went 0-9 on 3rd downs against the saints. That's bad enough.

 

[Idgit]

I glanced over all the categories and I didn't see a points per series, but I did find this -

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-play

We ranked 2nd in points per play, but I know that's not what you asked for.

You can check the categories as well and see if they have one, maybe I missed it ? Here's a list of all their categories, it's a good resource for all kinds of statistics -

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stats/

Yeah. That would work, but it's total team points, not just offensive points. I looked for it, too, but wasn't able to find it easily. I now it's out there, because I've seen it quoted before in threads. It's probably a safe bet that we rank fairly high in that regard, anyway, given that we've scored a fair amount of offensive points and we're middling in terms of ToP.

 

[TrailBlazer]

That stat will still be skewed based on how many series the offense actually gets. Any idea how we stack up in terms of points/offensive series?

Was going to ask that along with TOP.

10th in points per drive. I suggest reading @percyhowards post in "this ain't the same o" thread.

 

[Idgit]

Was going to ask that along with TOP.

Heh. Yep, me, too. We're fairly efficient on offense. And we've got solid STs. Our problem is with pass defense. It's nothing new, and it's no longer avoidable. We've made moves to address it, but the CB resources we've added and the scheme change obviously haven't worked. We need better S play, and more pressure, both of which require accumulating more talent.

 

[TTexasTT]

I know it was said. You look it up. I know we went 0-9 on 3rd downs against the saints. That's bad enough.

Ah, so it wasnt really a record. Gotcha

 

[Idgit]

10th in points per drive. I suggest reading @percyhowards post in "this ain't the same o" thread.

There we go. I knew I'd seen it somewhere, and I was betting it was percy. 10th is not as high as I'd have expected, honestly, but it's still pretty decent.

 

[TrailBlazer]

Ah, so it wasnt really a record. Gotcha

Do I need to take a picture of it for you to believe it?

We had a streak where we were atrocious on 3rd downs. That's the point. That's the part you need to understand. Everything else is irrelevant. Keep up.

 

[TTexasTT]

Do I need to take a picture of it for you to believe it?

We had a streak where we were atrocious on 3rd downs. That's the point. That's the part you need to understand. Everything else is irrelevant. Keep up.

Ok, so you make up stuff and I need to follow along? Solid plan.

You should go far in life with this method.

 

[TrailBlazer]

Ok, so you make up stuff and I need to follow along? Solid plan.

You should go far in life with this method.

We had a streak where we went 0-16 on third down conversions. Threatening the record, this was mentioned more than once. Nothing made up here. Just facts.

 

[dstovall5]

10th in points per drive. I suggest reading @percyhowards post in "this ain't the same o" thread.

There we go. I knew I'd seen it somewhere, and I was betting it was percy. 10th is not as high as I'd have expected, honestly, but it's still pretty decent.

We ranked 6th, at least according to Percy.


"I appreciate the research. This definitely ain't the same O at all.

Yards Per Drive
2012: 34.01 (8th)
2013: 29.94 (18th)

TOP Per Drive
2012: 2:52 (4th)
2013: 2:37 (14th)

Punts Per Drive
2012: .395 (10th)
2013: .483 (30th)

If you look just at the above stats, and the stats in the OP, the offense seems like it must be in the bottom half of the league. But then you look at the most important stat of all -- scoring. Different story.

Points Per Drive
2012: 2.01 (10th)
2013: 2.21 (6th)

We're scoring more than we did last year, even with fewer yards, more punts, and less TOP. The defense also plays a role in this, giving the offense the 4th-best average starting field position. This ain't the same D either, but it's close. The difference is obviously the takeaways. Some of these takeaways have given the offense ridiculously good field position to start a drive.

Even so, if you look at only the offense's drives that start inside their own 30-yard line, 33% of those drives end in scores. That's 7th in the league. 21% end in touchdowns. That's 6th. Last year, we were 8th and 11th. IOW, more of these drives end in scores than last year.

We're doing it because we're #2 in red zone passing and #1 red zone rushing, based on the percentage of red zone plays that result in either a TD or first down. We also rank #2 in fewest turnovers per drive. Last year, we were at the opposite end of those categories.

No, the defense isn't the only problem. The offense can be better. But the defense couldn't be much worse."