CFZ NFL Passer Rating Historically Adjusted (thru 2022)

[pansophy]

Every few years, we post the historically adjusted NFL Passer ratings.

As we all know, QB ratings have been rising steadily for 50 years with just a few minor regressions for years here or there.
All this does is take a 7-year rolling average of passer ratings dating back 50 years and adjust it to today's ratings.
It is amazing how this adjustment immediately stacks the Hall of Famers (or future HOFers) to the top.
Our Staubach vaults all the way into the top 7, for example.
It does not mean who is best, but in most cases, it does highlight good/great careers.

Here are te top 40 (5 year, 80 game min)

1. Graham (Hall of Fame)
2. Young (HOF)
3. Montana (HOF)
4. Dawson (HOF)
5. Jorgenson (HOF)
6. Rodgers (future HOF)
7. Staubach (HOF)
8. Mahomes (future HOF)
9. Starr (HOF)
10. Tarkenton (HOF)
11. Anderson (should be HOF)
12. Warner (HOF)
13. Brees (future HOF)
14. P Manning (HOF)
15. Romo...nope
16. Unitas (HOF)
17. Brady (future HOF)
18. Fouts (HOF)
19. Wilson (??futre HOF?)
20. B Jones.
21. Marino (HOF)
22. White
23. Griese (HOF)
24. Garcia.
25. Pennington
26. Morton
27. Rivers
28. Kelly (HOF)
29. Cousins
30. Prescott
31. Van Brocklin
32. Theismann
33. Lomax
34. Stabler (HOF)
35. Meredith
36. Ryan
37. Gabriel (should be HOF, imo)
38. YA Tittle (HOF)
39. Morrell
40. Roethlisberger (future HOF?)

As always, Aikman tends to not rank high due to the heavy run offense he was in. It is what it is...

I did something similar back in 2020, but created z-scores by season. Very similar list. QBR is on page 2 as well if anyone is interested.
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/all-time-qb-rating-normalized-by-year.458091/

 

[DFWJC]

I did something similar back in 2020, but created z-scores by season. Very similar list. QBR is on page 2 as well if anyone is interested.
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/all-time-qb-rating-normalized-by-year.458091/

Great stuff. I think your database might be larger
My cutoff of 80 starts (or about 5 years) maybe cut some guys like Jimmy G out.
I also notice I dont have Donowski and a few other old timers

 

[DFWJC]

I did something similar back in 2020, but created z-scores by season. Very similar list. QBR is on page 2 as well if anyone is interested.
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/all-time-qb-rating-normalized-by-year.458091/

Maybe you could run it thru 2022 if you have a program set up.
500 attempts seems like a low bar but as long as its consistent, its all good. Thru 2022 would add a few to your list.

 

[pansophy]

Maybe you could run it thru 2022 if you have a program set up.
500 attempts seems like a low bar but as long as its consistent, its all good. Thru 2022 would add a few to your list.

Okay here we go...this is standard QB Rating converted to z-score each year with final ordering based on their average z-score. I then use the average/StDev QB rating in 2022 to convert the z-score back to a QB rating. I took your advice and limited it to 1000 attempts. I'll include a separate table of the average QB rating by year so that people see why normalization matters so much and trying to compare raw numbers of today's player to those playing even 10 years ago doesn't make much sense.

Player	Att	FirstYear	LastYear	Seasons	nQBRate
Aaron Rodgers	7601​	2008​	2022​	15​	102.900742​
Steve Young	4149​	1985​	1999​	15​	102.563244​
Otto Graham	1565​	1950​	1955​	6​	102.150545​
Joe Montana	5347​	1980​	1994​	13​	101.580808​
Patrick Mahomes	2958​	2018​	2022​	5​	101.530871​
Roger Staubach	2891​	1970​	1979​	9​	100.273983​
Peyton Manning	9380​	1998​	2015​	17​	99.6482683​
Drew Brees	10524​	2002​	2020​	19​	99.5640088​
Tom Brady	12036​	2001​	2022​	21​	98.7743225​
Bob Griese	2491​	1970​	1980​	11​	98.369558​
Russell Wilson	5218​	2012​	2022​	11​	98.276188​
Tony Romo	4331​	2006​	2015​	10​	98.0142294​
Norm Van Brocklin	2895​	1949​	1960​	12​	97.3916977​
Bob Berry	1049​	1968​	1972​	5​	97.2093452​
Sid Luckman	1707​	1939​	1949​	11​	96.7283169​
Kurt Warner	4059​	1999​	2009​	11​	96.7197347​
Jimmy Garoppolo	1695​	2016​	2022​	7​	96.6173842​
Ken Anderson	4420​	1971​	1984​	14​	96.5242411​
Dan Marino	8358​	1983​	1999​	17​	96.2563896​
Deshaun Watson	1918​	2017​	2022​	5​	96.1178296​
Joe Burrow	1530​	2020​	2022​	3​	96.0847105​
Fran Tarkenton	6467​	1961​	1978​	18​	96.0663629​
Sonny Jurgensen	4163​	1957​	1974​	14​	95.9038824​
Philip Rivers	8104​	2006​	2020​	15​	95.6683372​
Danny White	2805​	1980​	1987​	8​	95.3578529​
Sammy Baugh	2962​	1937​	1951​	15​	94.8331084​
Len Dawson	1344​	1970​	1975​	6​	94.7045277​
Bart Starr	3060​	1957​	1970​	14​	94.6423213​
Dak Prescott	3283​	2016​	2022​	7​	94.4500697​
Jim Kelly	4779​	1986​	1996​	11​	94.366407​
Dave Krieg	5286​	1981​	1996​	16​	94.0609933​
Dan Fouts	5604​	1973​	1987​	15​	93.7159668​
Ben Roethlisberger	8443​	2004​	2021​	18​	93.6600816​
Greg Landry	2156​	1969​	1979​	11​	93.605021​
Brett Favre	10165​	1992​	2010​	19​	93.3375907​
Johnny Unitas	5154​	1956​	1973​	17​	93.2899007​
Matt Ryan	8464​	2008​	2022​	15​	93.2498402​
Justin Herbert	1966​	2020​	2022​	3​	93.1261477​
Jeff Garcia	3676​	1999​	2008​	10​	93.0893144​
YA Tittle	3817​	1950​	1964​	15​	92.9670568​
Tommy Thompson	1368​	1941​	1950​	7​	92.8158711​
Kirk Cousins	4818​	2013​	2022​	10​	92.6384115​
Chad Pennington	2444​	2002​	2009​	8​	92.3607148​
Mark Brunell	4567​	1995​	2006​	12​	92.3324353​
Bernie Kosar	3321​	1985​	1995​	10​	92.1802759​
Neil Lomax	3153​	1981​	1988​	8​	91.9633577​
Craig Morton	3667​	1967​	1981​	14​	91.8418605​
Billy Wade	2437​	1954​	1964​	10​	91.6227699​
Billy Kilmer	2861​	1967​	1977​	11​	91.5923384​
Rich Gannon	4174​	1990​	2004​	13​	91.5691637​
Lamar Jackson	1655​	2018​	2022​	5​	91.5645572​
Tua Tagovailoa	1078​	2020​	2022​	3​	91.5467456​
Frank Ryan	2114​	1959​	1968​	10​	91.5288454​
Pat Haden	1322​	1976​	1981​	5​	91.5183989​
Charlie Conerly	2833​	1948​	1961​	14​	91.393935​
Ryan Tannehill	4534​	2012​	2022​	10​	91.2763579​
Roman Gabriel	4495​	1962​	1976​	15​	91.1992374​
Phil Simms	4634​	1979​	1993​	13​	91.0564835​
Joe Theismann	3569​	1976​	1985​	10​	91.0260336​
Donovan McNabb	5374​	1999​	2011​	13​	90.9286481​
Marc Bulger	3171​	2002​	2009​	8​	90.9133649​
Boomer Esiason	5205​	1984​	1997​	14​	90.908729​
Troy Aikman	4715​	1989​	2000​	12​	90.8694656​
Arnie Herber	1175​	1932​	1945​	11​	90.8446707​
Matthew Stafford	7128​	2009​	2022​	14​	90.8111028​
Jim McMahon	2473​	1982​	1993​	10​	90.7727587​
Steve McNair	4544​	1995​	2007​	13​	90.7276998​
Ken Stabler	3738​	1972​	1984​	13​	90.6979242​
Bill Nelsen	1830​	1965​	1971​	7​	90.681255​
Warren Moon	6786​	1984​	1998​	15​	90.6778544​
Charlie Batch	1449​	1998​	2012​	6​	90.5035114​
David Garrard	2223​	2004​	2010​	7​	90.3705002​
Shaun Hill	1167​	2007​	2014​	5​	90.2019986​
Carson Palmer	6307​	2004​	2017​	14​	90.1521434​
Matt Schaub	3301​	2004​	2019​	11​	89.9722843​
Neil ODonnell	3197​	1991​	2001​	11​	89.724603​
John Elway	7250​	1983​	1998​	16​	89.7067198​
Bill Munson	1781​	1964​	1975​	9​	89.5984763​
Ken OBrien	3602​	1984​	1993​	10​	89.5974078​
Kyler Murray	1971​	2019​	2022​	4​	89.4889092​
Elvis Grbac	2445​	1994​	2001​	8​	89.4657091​
Jeff Hostetler	2270​	1990​	1997​	8​	89.4220277​
Brad Johnson	4242​	1996​	2008​	12​	89.2890752​
Derek Carr	4958​	2014​	2022​	9​	89.2218467​
Jeff George	3925​	1990​	2000​	11​	89.106014​
Brian Griese	2761​	1999​	2008​	9​	88.8459999​
Bert Jones	2509​	1973​	1982​	9​	88.6073427​
Daunte Culpepper	3199​	2000​	2009​	10​	88.5966321​
Bob Waterfield	1617​	1945​	1952​	8​	88.5827765​
Wade Wilson	2320​	1984​	1998​	12​	88.4519864​
Bobby Thomason	1334​	1951​	1957​	7​	88.4459313​
John Brodie	4470​	1958​	1973​	16​	88.3529256​
Trent Green	3739​	1998​	2008​	10​	88.2540796​
Marcus Mariota	2065​	2015​	2022​	6​	88.1924244​
Teddy Bridgewater	2042​	2014​	2022​	6​	88.1913854​
Randall Cunningham	4285​	1985​	2001​	15​	88.1901197​
Terry Bradshaw	3893​	1970​	1982​	13​	88.1487615​
Jared Goff	3502​	2016​	2022​	7​	88.0905662​
Earl Morrall	2482​	1956​	1972​	15​	88.0606304​
Josh Allen	2566​	2018​	2022​	5​	87.9296204​

 

[pansophy]

...and now Average QB Rating by year

Year	Avg	STD
1932​	37.6857143​	18.4486159​
1933​	37.5888889​	17.8315342​
1934​	25.55​	13.498783​
1935​	29.7888889​	20.4220741​
1936​	40.2222222​	16.7302703​
1937​	46.2090909​	19.6974341​
1938​	46.19375​	18.2315649​
1939​	50.7​	27.749749​
1940​	47.64​	20.3028781​
1941​	44.14​	25.4396148​
1942​	50.85​	30.4015625​
1943​	52.4833333​	25.8264429​
1944​	49.9846154​	21.13819​
1945​	57.7​	26.8764513​
1946​	46.6538462​	20.9455491​
1947​	56.6714286​	17.5028098​
1948​	59.3​	24.8398661​
1949​	53.7388889​	25.5406513​
1950​	56.2782609​	19.1421941​
1951​	52.4954545​	18.1233466​
1952​	54.012​	18.9663368​
1953​	48.1190476​	22.1266721​
1954​	62.0909091​	19.0557805​
1955​	54.6​	17.1799948​
1956​	60.2904762​	14.7783593​
1957​	62.9411765​	17.886135​
1958​	64.01​	14.517862​
1959​	60.34​	21.4216909​
1960​	60.0136364​	19.4560382​
1961​	68.65​	13.458605​
1962​	71.8809524​	15.2019939​
1963​	64.225​	20.0637517​
1964​	70.5095238​	17.7480113​
1965​	71.0434783​	17.825794​
1966​	67.1535714​	20.8966147​
1967​	62.432​	17.1515723​
1968​	64.7185185​	20.1831429​
1969​	66.37​	19.7425001​
1970​	62.95​	17.7674828​
1971​	60.1511111​	16.5375554​
1972​	67.5897436​	13.5228616​
1973​	60.4234043​	19.5273522​
1974​	60.1086957​	19.6095989​
1975​	61.7727273​	19.6065172​
1976​	65.4139535​	20.9582531​
1977​	57.2021739​	18.4420713​
1978​	63.5871795​	15.0416121​
1979​	67.6926829​	11.5884078​
1980​	73.295​	14.9600142​
1981​	71.2234043​	14.5063137​
1982​	72.0216216​	12.7359756​
1983​	73.4020833​	14.9212042​
1984​	70.7036364​	19.3552459​
1985​	71.0176471​	14.8295476​
1986​	70.3886792​	16.032403​
1987​	72.8112903​	16.0132538​
1988​	70.6288462​	14.0011111​
1989​	72.1730769​	16.4114871​
1990​	74.7291667​	16.0784507​
1991​	72.3933333​	16.0315796​
1992​	73.7528302​	14.1026539​
1993​	74.054717​	14.11755​
1994​	76.3480769​	14.4934534​
1995​	74.836​	15.2418698​
1996​	74.4384615​	13.1876674​
1997​	73.4596154​	17.2990225​
1998​	75.7910714​	15.4043356​
1999​	73.4896552​	13.4382629​
2000​	73.8944444​	15.0976372​
2001​	76.3844444​	12.1556563​
2002​	78.0176471​	13.1033081​
2003​	76.8358491​	14.9403055​
2004​	77.7924528​	16.9925645​
2005​	77.4462963​	14.2540258​
2006​	79.2686275​	14.3292497​
2007​	79.5016667​	14.629208​
2008​	78.0382979​	15.247873​
2009​	77.758​	17.9273146​
2010​	80.6076923​	14.4258462​
2011​	79.2923077​	15.0715138​
2012​	82.1023256​	14.3918378​
2013​	82.8632653​	15.9097283​
2014​	86.3125​	11.8814467​
2015​	86.5960784​	11.36857​
2016​	87.4604167​	13.6751792​
2017​	84.4434783​	12.5621062​
2018​	86.952​	16.5824623​
2019​	85.9754717​	17.0478501​
2020​	90.54375​	14.4259209​
2021​	86.6207547​	15.4955249​
2022​	84.6655172​	13.4493273​

 

[glimmerman]

Every few years, we post the historically adjusted NFL Passer ratings.

As we all know, QB ratings have been rising steadily for 50 years with just a few minor regressions for years here or there.
All this does is take a 7-year rolling average of passer ratings dating back 50 years and adjust it to today's ratings.
It is amazing how this adjustment immediately stacks the Hall of Famers (or future HOFers) to the top.
Our Staubach vaults all the way into the top 7, for example.
It does not mean who is best, but in most cases, it does highlight good/great careers.

Here are te top 40 (5 year, 80 game min)

1. Graham (Hall of Fame)
2. Young (HOF)
3. Montana (HOF)
4. Dawson (HOF)
5. Jorgenson (HOF)
6. Rodgers (future HOF)
7. Staubach (HOF)
8. Mahomes (future HOF)
9. Starr (HOF)
10. Tarkenton (HOF)
11. Anderson (should be HOF)
12. Warner (HOF)
13. Brees (future HOF)
14. P Manning (HOF)
15. Romo...nope
16. Unitas (HOF)
17. Brady (future HOF)
18. Fouts (HOF)
19. Wilson (??futre HOF?)
20. B Jones.
21. Marino (HOF)
22. White
23. Griese (HOF)
24. Garcia.
25. Pennington
26. Morton
27. Rivers
28. Kelly (HOF)
29. Cousins
30. Prescott
31. Van Brocklin
32. Theismann
33. Lomax
34. Stabler (HOF)
35. Meredith
36. Ryan
37. Gabriel (should be HOF, imo)
38. YA Tittle (HOF)
39. Morrell
40. Roethlisberger (future HOF?)

As always, Aikman tends to not rank high due to the heavy run offense he was in. It is what it is...

Yeah but he led his team to the SB how many times. That has to say something,

 

[Cowboys5217]

This is an example of why QBR does not paint the whole picture. Brady is the unquestioned GOAT and yet he isn't even top 10 here. Aikman was better than most of the guys on the list and he doesn't register.

 

[DFWJC]

Yeah but he led his team to the SB how many times. That has to say something,

Of course it does. My point was that he is one of the few where QB ratings don't reflect his value as much as most.
And the thread was not at all about Aikman. I put that footnote in there to point out the obvious

 

[DFWJC]

This is an example of why QBR does not paint the whole picture. Brady is the unquestioned GOAT and yet he isn't even top 10 here. Aikman was better than most of the guys on the list and he doesn't register.

Maybe you didn't read the OP where it specifically said it does not tell us who is best and is not a rating of who is best.
Just a pretty good indicator of who is or will be in the HOF.
say 90% of the time for the very top.
If anything, Brady (and Manning, and Montana, and Stabuach, etc,etc,etc,etc,) being up there confirms what we already know

 

[visionary]

I’ve repeatedly said Romo is the best Cowboys QB I’ve ever seen live. Here’s evidence I’m not crazy.

You’re crazy

The most important stat is playoff wins and NFCCG wins and SBs

There are talkers and doers

Romo doesn’t hold a candle to Aikman
He talks from the booth but couldn’t get it done whenever the chips were down

 

[jterrell]

Dak Prescott is the 30th highest rated passer of all-time (while adding a runnign dimension half the people above him do not) and goofies on this board will post that he should be released.

 

[jterrell]

Troy Aikman was a good QB and a great leader but he was not an otherworldly or best of era type guy.
He was a product of an offense that featured a top 5 all-time running back and elite OL plus a Hall of Fame WR.

His final 4 seasons were very unimpressive with a bad team around him. 24-28 over 4 seasons of banged up play.
He was also punished by relative longevity issues due to the concussions and back.

None of that really matters.
He was so great when it mattered and he has 3 SB rings.
He has a ring of honor and Hall of Fame spot.
He had made a fortune in broadcasting post playing career.
When he gets bored someone will probably let him be a walk in GM.

 

[DFWJC]

the fact that 17 of the top 19 on that list are in (or will be in) the Hall of Fame tells us that the Passer rating does mean something.
We all know it doesn't mean everything, but there is a huge and undeniable correlation at the very top