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NFL.com Senior Analyst
(June 21, 2006) -- Before you know it, NFL teams will be in training camps and the whole focus in pro football will turn to getting teams ready for the season. Before that, from early July through early August, most of the interest will be in getting the top draft picks signed. But before even that, June is a time to reflect on how teams handle personnel evaluation. This month is an excellent time to look back at some of the ways players are evaluated and see if there are some things that could be improved.
With that in mind and with Colts defensive end Robert Mathis just signing a big contract extension after leading his team with 11½ sacks in the 2005 season, I went back and looked at the draft Mathis was a part of to see what could be learned about how teams evaluated his position.
In the 2003 draft, there were 17 defensive ends drafted before Mathis and only one has delivered more sacks in his three-year career: Terrell Suggs of the Ravens. Suggs has played outside linebacker when the Ravens were in the 3-4 defense and is back at defensive end in the 4-3, but he has still managed 30½ sacks in his career despite the position changes. Mathis is credited with 25½ in his career, which is outstanding for the undersized specialist from little Alabama A&M, but Mathis was not alone in that draft when it came to small-school talent.
Osi Umenyiora, the New York Giants' defensive end from Troy State, didn't get drafted until six other defensive ends were taken, but he already has the third best sack production of the class with 22½. The possibility of a big-school bias has to be reviewed when teams look at the drafting decisions at defensive end in the 2003 draft. Are scouts and coaches influenced by where a pass rusher demonstrated his pass-rush skills?
With three defensive ends from the University of Miami (Jerome McDougle, Andrew Williams and Jamaal Green) all being picked before Mathis was selected in the fifth round, it appears a big-school bias is a very real possibility. With what we know today about Mathis, it almost seems impossible that he couldn't get on the field if he were at Miami instead of Alabama A&M. The three Hurricanes have a grand total of three career sacks combined. Williams was a third-round pick of the 49ers and now belongs to the Bucs and he has yet to get to get to a quarterback in his three years as an outside linebacker or defensive end. Green was a fourth-round pick of the Eagles and now suits up in the Chicago Bears locker room and has one sack.
Clemson had two college defensive ends drafted before Mathis, Nick Eason and Bryant McNeal, who have two sacks between them since they left the Clemson campus. Eason is now a defensive tackle and McNeal has never stood over a quarterback he sacked.
The questions that arise from the draft decisions made just four years ago at the defensive end position have a lot to do with big-school vs. small-school players. But it is also possible that teams could look at the 2003 draft and conclude that pass rushers don't have to come from the first round. Remember how much success the Broncos have had taking running backs later in the draft and how some teams concluded ball carriers could be found in later rounds. Mathis is a fifth-round selection and Umenyiora was a second-round pick.
I don't believe one draft can establish how teams will evaluate their draft process, but it sure can be the impetus to study possible trends that are developing. Take a look at the defensive ends selected in 2003 in the order they were taken and see if it provokes any thoughts about how teams grade players.
Round Name School 2005 sacks Career sacks Percent of 2005 plays 1 Terrell Suggs Arizona St. 8 30½ 96% 1 Ty Warren Texas A&M 1½ 6 69% 1 Michael Haynes Penn State 1½ 5½ 19% 1 Jerome McDougle Miami 0 2 0% 1 Calvin Pace Wake Forest 1 6½ 10% 2 Chris Kelsay Nebraska 2½ 7 93% 2 Osi Umenyiora Troy State 14½ 22½ 89% 2 Dewayne White Louisville 3 9 42% 3 Cory Redding Texas 1 4 54% 3 Kenny Peterson Ohio State 3 3 27% 3 Sam Williams Fresno State 0 0 0% 3 Andrew Williams Miami 0 0 0% 4 Jarrett Johnson Alabama 1½ 1½ 66% 4 Nick Eason Clemson 2 2 48% 4 Bryant McNeal Clemson 0 0 0% 4 Shurron Pierson South Florida 0 0 0% 4 Jamaal Green Miami 0 1 0% 5 Robert Mathis Alabama A&M 11½ 25½ 35%
When you look at the success rate of Umenyiora and Mathis, it would be easy to say it is a direct result of playing opposite Michael Strahan and Dwight Freeney. But Dewayne White plays opposite Simeon Rice in Tampa Bay, Kenny Peterson has Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila in Green Bay and Chris Kelsay has Aaron Schobel in Buffalo, among other combinations, and the results haven't been the same. Eight of the 17 players picked ahead of Mathis played a larger percentage of plays and six players selected prior to Mathis didn't play a single down in 2005.
No one who runs a draft needs to feel like they failed, but they can learn from looking back at drafts and June is an excellent time to do some quality control work. This report isn't deep enough to change the way a team grades players, but it is thought provoking enough to go back and read all the scouting reports written during the 2003 draft preparation to see if there is a pattern of behavior that leads teams to favor certain types of players over other players.
I wonder what the Colts would have done if any of the players selected before Mathis were still on the draft board when their fifth-round pick came up. Ten years ago in a conversation about wide receiver Andre Reed, Bill Polian, who helped draft Reed while with the Bills and is now president of the Colts, told me he liked taking small college players on the second day of the draft because they were hungry and appreciative of the opportunity. It looks like he kept that principle in mind when the Colts selected Mathis. The challenge for all 32 teams preparing for the 2007 draft is to find a way to arrive at selecting the next Mathis rather than taking a much better known player who may not have the rare pass-rush skills of a lesser known player.
Finally, keep in mind Adewale Ogunleye wasn't drafted, Michael Strahan played at Texas Southern, Jason Taylor went to Akron, Gbaja-Biamila played his college ball at San Diego State and Bryce Fisher lined up for the Air Force Academy, yet they combined to reach the quarterback 50½ times last season. Pass rushers come from all over the country and this is the time of year to keep that in mind.