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Surrealist
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[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Rob Rang
Senior Analyst
NFLDraftScout.com
March 22, 2006 - Mock drafts offer a tantalizing, if often blurred, glimpse into the potential future of NFL franchises. Fans can't get enough of them, and NFL executives, despite claims to the contrary, enjoy them as well and use them to help gauge where players might fall.
But the draft will always be an unpredictable phenomenon, with mocks based on theory and educated (sometimes not so) guesswork. Players rise and fall unexpectedly. Teams thought to be strong in an area eschew other needs to pick a prospect at the same position because he is the best player available. Medical or legal information from reports never released to the public lead to players taking unforeseen tumbles down the board.
To predict those surprises is the ultimate challenge. And with more than a month to go before the draft, I'm giving you names and reasons why 10 big-name players will be drafted higher or lower than you expect.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]HIGHER THAN YOU THINK:[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee:[/SIZE][/FONT] At this point, I don't know of another draft analyst ranking Meachem as the second-best receiver of the 2007 class. I know of at least a half dozen NFL teams that do -- including a handful of that own picks in the top 15. Those toward the middle of the first round don't expect Meachem to be available when they pick.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Levi Brown, OT, Penn State:[/SIZE][/FONT] It is perhaps the oldest maxim in football: run the ball effectively, and you will win with consistency. Brown may be the draft's finest run-blocking offensive tackle, and some view him as a better overall prospect than Wisconsin's Joe Thomas, who could go as high as No. 2 overall. Barring a traumatic injury or incident, Brown won't make it out of the top 10.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Leon Hall, CB, Michigan:[/SIZE][/FONT] Ohio State's Ted Ginn, Jr. and Southern Cal's Dwayne Jarrett, over the course of two games, attempted to ruin Hall's high draft status. While Hall was victimized in these two games -- the final two of his collegiate career -- it is important to review a player's entire body of work. Certainly, Hall's 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the Combine helped his cause, but more important, the more film you watch on this kid, the more you appreciate how he blankets receivers 97 percent of the time, rather than worry about his getting beat three percent of the time. Darrelle Revis and perhaps Chris Houston will offer some competition to be the first cornerback selected, but Hall will be off the board in the top 10-12 picks.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee:[/SIZE][/FONT] With the franchise tag amount for defensive tackles ($6.77 million) behind only pass rushers on the defensive side the ball, big run stuffers are highly valued commodities. Not since 2000 has there been a draft without at least three defensive tackles being selected in the first round. Don't expect 2007 to change the run. It may be hard for teams to justify taking Harrell, who played in only four games last season because of a torn bicep. But with 25 starts in 35 games, there is plenty of film available on him, and he is clearly the third best defensive tackle prospect in this draft. The drop from Harrell to the next tier of defensive tackles is a significant one. Last year, I was one of the few to correctly project John McCargo going in the first round. The rationale behind that projection was the same as this one -- teams will reach for defensive tackles.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan:[/SIZE][/FONT] A pulled hamstring kept Staley from working out at the Combine. At that time, he was being bandied about by NFL insiders as a potential first-round pick. After a Pro Day performance that one long-time scout I spoke to classified "as the best workout I've ever seen from an offensive lineman," the question isn't if the former Chippewa makes the first round, but how high he goes. Staley's 40-yard dash (4.80), shuttle (4.30), and three-cone drill (7.17) were each the fastest recorded by an offensive lineman in the 2007 draft class. Staley is hardly just a workout warrior. Not only did he start 39 games for Central Michigan, he also held his own at the Senior Bowl.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]LOWER THAN YOU THINK:[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma:[/SIZE][/FONT] In listing Peterson, I'll be unfairly judged as a non-believer in his pro potential. Nothing could be further from the truth. Peterson is an explosive talent with the size, strength and speed to justify the comparisons to Hall of Fame member Eric Dickerson. That said, barring the Cleveland Browns succumbing to public pressure, Peterson is going to drop out of the top five and, I believe, out of the top 10. As talented a runner as he is, Peterson, at 6-2, is taller than scouts prefer at running back and he has an upright running style that invites big hits. His number of games played dropped from 13 as a freshman to 11 as a sophomore to seven this past season. Teams are closely checking his medical results from the Combine, and at least a handful of them have already red-flagged Peterson's shoulder.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Alan Branch, DT, Michigan:[/SIZE][/FONT] Even Branch's most ardent supporters will acknowledge that the former Wolverine will never be a big stat producer in the middle. That isn't his game. Taking up blockers and controlling the middle is. That said, Branch surprised more than a couple of scouts who interviewed him with his meek behavior at the Combine. A soft-spoken personality isn't a negative. When one has been characterized throughout his career as a physically imposing and aggressive player, however, a soft-spoken nature raises questions about toughness. To make matters worse, Branch looked out of shape and struggled through positional drills at his Pro Day. Branch is too big, strong and talented to fall too far, but the comparisons to Detroit Pro Bowl tackle Shaun Rogers are becoming rarer, with allusions to disappointing Rams tackle Jimmy Kennedy popping up instead.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas:[/SIZE][/FONT] Some have characterized Anderson as a better overall prospect and earlier pick than Clemson's Gaines Adams. It easy to understand why when focusing on Anderson's stat-line against the top opponents Arkansas faced last year. Anderson racked up some of his SEC-leading 13.5 sacks against the likes of Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee and Wisconsin. When looking at Anderson closer on film, however, you see a player whose production was helped dramatically by Arkansas' frequent stunts and twists. Anderson, it should also be noted, lined up at left end, opposite the right tackle generally known more for his strength against the run than pass blocking prowess. Scouts didn't worry too much about this as the perception was that Anderson, a former wide receiver, would work out exceptionally well. His Pro Day results, instead, were fairly pedestrian. Anderson has rare size and legitimate upside, but he fits into this draft in the 15-25 range, not the top 5-10 as some suggest.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State:[/SIZE][/FONT] My esteemed colleague, Dave Te' Thomas, summarized Ginn well in stating that the former Buckeye appears to be a "quality return specialist who can contribute some as a receiver rather than a receiver who can contribute some as a return specialist." I certainly recognize Ginn's big-play ability. I believe he has a chance to have a Devin Hester-like impact as a returner next year. But as a receiver, if one were to ignore his mercurial speed for one moment and focus on his route-running, hands, and willingness to go over the middle, they'd realize that he is a remarkably one-dimensional weapon. Ginn is so explosive that some team will take him in the first round, but I see him as being a luxury pick made by a team in the 22-32 range hoping to incorporate Ginn as a return specialist and slot receiver, rather than a team in the top 15 looking for a receiver to build an offense around.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue:[/SIZE][/FONT] Listing Spencer here is difficult for me. I am quite high on his ability to put pressure on the quarterback and have been vocal in my appreciation of his skills. However, I was a little disappointed in his workouts, and after initially feeling that Spencer might be athletic and instinctive enough to play linebacker in the 3-4 alignment, I now believe he is much better suited to remaining as a 4-3 end. Spencer is a solid end, but is one of those jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none types. He isn't explosive off the edge, and at 6-3, 265 pounds, is viewed by some as a bit of a 'tweener. I think he is going to be a productive starting defensive end at the next level, but he'll be one who is drafted in the second or maybe even third round, not in the first, as some suggest.[/FONT]
Senior Analyst
NFLDraftScout.com
March 22, 2006 - Mock drafts offer a tantalizing, if often blurred, glimpse into the potential future of NFL franchises. Fans can't get enough of them, and NFL executives, despite claims to the contrary, enjoy them as well and use them to help gauge where players might fall.
But the draft will always be an unpredictable phenomenon, with mocks based on theory and educated (sometimes not so) guesswork. Players rise and fall unexpectedly. Teams thought to be strong in an area eschew other needs to pick a prospect at the same position because he is the best player available. Medical or legal information from reports never released to the public lead to players taking unforeseen tumbles down the board.
To predict those surprises is the ultimate challenge. And with more than a month to go before the draft, I'm giving you names and reasons why 10 big-name players will be drafted higher or lower than you expect.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]HIGHER THAN YOU THINK:[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee:[/SIZE][/FONT] At this point, I don't know of another draft analyst ranking Meachem as the second-best receiver of the 2007 class. I know of at least a half dozen NFL teams that do -- including a handful of that own picks in the top 15. Those toward the middle of the first round don't expect Meachem to be available when they pick.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Levi Brown, OT, Penn State:[/SIZE][/FONT] It is perhaps the oldest maxim in football: run the ball effectively, and you will win with consistency. Brown may be the draft's finest run-blocking offensive tackle, and some view him as a better overall prospect than Wisconsin's Joe Thomas, who could go as high as No. 2 overall. Barring a traumatic injury or incident, Brown won't make it out of the top 10.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Leon Hall, CB, Michigan:[/SIZE][/FONT] Ohio State's Ted Ginn, Jr. and Southern Cal's Dwayne Jarrett, over the course of two games, attempted to ruin Hall's high draft status. While Hall was victimized in these two games -- the final two of his collegiate career -- it is important to review a player's entire body of work. Certainly, Hall's 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the Combine helped his cause, but more important, the more film you watch on this kid, the more you appreciate how he blankets receivers 97 percent of the time, rather than worry about his getting beat three percent of the time. Darrelle Revis and perhaps Chris Houston will offer some competition to be the first cornerback selected, but Hall will be off the board in the top 10-12 picks.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee:[/SIZE][/FONT] With the franchise tag amount for defensive tackles ($6.77 million) behind only pass rushers on the defensive side the ball, big run stuffers are highly valued commodities. Not since 2000 has there been a draft without at least three defensive tackles being selected in the first round. Don't expect 2007 to change the run. It may be hard for teams to justify taking Harrell, who played in only four games last season because of a torn bicep. But with 25 starts in 35 games, there is plenty of film available on him, and he is clearly the third best defensive tackle prospect in this draft. The drop from Harrell to the next tier of defensive tackles is a significant one. Last year, I was one of the few to correctly project John McCargo going in the first round. The rationale behind that projection was the same as this one -- teams will reach for defensive tackles.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan:[/SIZE][/FONT] A pulled hamstring kept Staley from working out at the Combine. At that time, he was being bandied about by NFL insiders as a potential first-round pick. After a Pro Day performance that one long-time scout I spoke to classified "as the best workout I've ever seen from an offensive lineman," the question isn't if the former Chippewa makes the first round, but how high he goes. Staley's 40-yard dash (4.80), shuttle (4.30), and three-cone drill (7.17) were each the fastest recorded by an offensive lineman in the 2007 draft class. Staley is hardly just a workout warrior. Not only did he start 39 games for Central Michigan, he also held his own at the Senior Bowl.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]LOWER THAN YOU THINK:[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma:[/SIZE][/FONT] In listing Peterson, I'll be unfairly judged as a non-believer in his pro potential. Nothing could be further from the truth. Peterson is an explosive talent with the size, strength and speed to justify the comparisons to Hall of Fame member Eric Dickerson. That said, barring the Cleveland Browns succumbing to public pressure, Peterson is going to drop out of the top five and, I believe, out of the top 10. As talented a runner as he is, Peterson, at 6-2, is taller than scouts prefer at running back and he has an upright running style that invites big hits. His number of games played dropped from 13 as a freshman to 11 as a sophomore to seven this past season. Teams are closely checking his medical results from the Combine, and at least a handful of them have already red-flagged Peterson's shoulder.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Alan Branch, DT, Michigan:[/SIZE][/FONT] Even Branch's most ardent supporters will acknowledge that the former Wolverine will never be a big stat producer in the middle. That isn't his game. Taking up blockers and controlling the middle is. That said, Branch surprised more than a couple of scouts who interviewed him with his meek behavior at the Combine. A soft-spoken personality isn't a negative. When one has been characterized throughout his career as a physically imposing and aggressive player, however, a soft-spoken nature raises questions about toughness. To make matters worse, Branch looked out of shape and struggled through positional drills at his Pro Day. Branch is too big, strong and talented to fall too far, but the comparisons to Detroit Pro Bowl tackle Shaun Rogers are becoming rarer, with allusions to disappointing Rams tackle Jimmy Kennedy popping up instead.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas:[/SIZE][/FONT] Some have characterized Anderson as a better overall prospect and earlier pick than Clemson's Gaines Adams. It easy to understand why when focusing on Anderson's stat-line against the top opponents Arkansas faced last year. Anderson racked up some of his SEC-leading 13.5 sacks against the likes of Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee and Wisconsin. When looking at Anderson closer on film, however, you see a player whose production was helped dramatically by Arkansas' frequent stunts and twists. Anderson, it should also be noted, lined up at left end, opposite the right tackle generally known more for his strength against the run than pass blocking prowess. Scouts didn't worry too much about this as the perception was that Anderson, a former wide receiver, would work out exceptionally well. His Pro Day results, instead, were fairly pedestrian. Anderson has rare size and legitimate upside, but he fits into this draft in the 15-25 range, not the top 5-10 as some suggest.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State:[/SIZE][/FONT] My esteemed colleague, Dave Te' Thomas, summarized Ginn well in stating that the former Buckeye appears to be a "quality return specialist who can contribute some as a receiver rather than a receiver who can contribute some as a return specialist." I certainly recognize Ginn's big-play ability. I believe he has a chance to have a Devin Hester-like impact as a returner next year. But as a receiver, if one were to ignore his mercurial speed for one moment and focus on his route-running, hands, and willingness to go over the middle, they'd realize that he is a remarkably one-dimensional weapon. Ginn is so explosive that some team will take him in the first round, but I see him as being a luxury pick made by a team in the 22-32 range hoping to incorporate Ginn as a return specialist and slot receiver, rather than a team in the top 15 looking for a receiver to build an offense around.
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue:[/SIZE][/FONT] Listing Spencer here is difficult for me. I am quite high on his ability to put pressure on the quarterback and have been vocal in my appreciation of his skills. However, I was a little disappointed in his workouts, and after initially feeling that Spencer might be athletic and instinctive enough to play linebacker in the 3-4 alignment, I now believe he is much better suited to remaining as a 4-3 end. Spencer is a solid end, but is one of those jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none types. He isn't explosive off the edge, and at 6-3, 265 pounds, is viewed by some as a bit of a 'tweener. I think he is going to be a productive starting defensive end at the next level, but he'll be one who is drafted in the second or maybe even third round, not in the first, as some suggest.[/FONT]
