Not Surprised by Final 4 teams

Jumbo075

Jumbo075

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The Jaguars have been flying under the radar all year as one of the better NFL teams. It wouldn't be a shock to see them win it all. In my final statistical rankings of the teams at the end of the regular season, and the Jaguars rank #1 - followed by Philadelphia, Minnesota, and New England.

New England ranks the lowest of the final 4 teams, mainly because their defense ranks 28th in the NFL. If the Patriots fail to make another Super Bowl this season, it will be because of their defense. Also, the strength of the Jaguars defense is their pass defense, and they are a tough matchup for the Patriots because the Patriots lack the star power at the receiver position that the Steelers have.

Lastly, although the Eagles rank ahead of the Vikings, and they are playing at home, the reality is that it is hard to trust that Nick Foles will deliver. If Wentz was still healthy, you'd have to favor the Eagles, but we'll see if they can hold off the Vikings with Foles.

My final regular season rankings: (And then there were 4)

1. 92.5 Jacksonville Jaguars
2. 91.9 Philadelphia Eagles
3. 90.3 Minnesota Vikings
4. 89.9 New England Patriots

5. 88.2 New Orleans Saints
6. 88.0 Pittsburgh Steelers
7. 86.6 Los Angeles Rams
8. 86.5 Los Angeles Chargers
9. 86.1 Carolina Panthers
10. 86.0 Baltimore Ravens
11. 84.3 Kansas City Chiefs
12. 83.3 Atlanta Falcons
13. 81.8 Detroit Lions
14. 81.5 Dallas Cowboys
15. 79.5 Arizona Cardinals
16. 79.5 Tennesee Titans
17. 79.0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
18. 77.7 Seattle Seahawks
19. 77.6 Buffalo Bills
20. 77.5 Chicago Bears
21. 77.1 Washington Commanders
22. 76.2 Green Bay Packers
23. 74.9 San Francisco 49ers
24. 74.3 Houston Texans
25. 73.3 Denver Broncos
26. 73.2 New York Jets
27. 73.1 Indianapolis Colts
28. 71.9 Oakland Raiders
29. 71.7 New York Giants
30. 70.2 Miami Dolphins
31. 69.9 Cincinnati Bengals
32. 66.4 Cleveland Browns
 
Jake said:
"I knew it all along!"

By chance can you point us to the thread where you posted these rankings before the games were played?
Click to expand...

I didn't say I knew it all along. I said I am not surprised. And I've been doing these rankings for 20 years, and posting them on the DC.com site. I can't help they've shut it down.

And by the way, here are my rankings from the 2016 season, just for comparison:

1. 92.5 New England Patriots
2. 91.1 Atlanta Falcons
3. 88.1 Dallas Cowboys
4. 86.3 Green Bay Packers
5. 85.1 Arizona Cardinals
6. 84.9 Kansas City Chiefs
7. 83.9 Oakland Raiders
8. 83.7 Pittsburgh Steelers
9. 83.7 Cincinnati Bengals
10. 83.4 Tennesee Titans
11. 83.0 Washington Commanders
12. 82.9 Philadelphia Eagles
13. 82.7 Seattle Seahawks
14. 81.9 Minnesota Vikings
15. 81.8 Denver Broncos
16. 81.4 New Orleans Saints
17. 81.2 Buffalo Bills
18. 80.7 Carolina Panthers
19. 80.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20. 80.5 Baltimore Ravens
21. 80.2 Indianapolis Colts
22. 80.0 New York Giants
23. 79.4 Houston Texans
24. 78.7 San Diego Chargers
25. 78.6 Detroit Lions
26. 73.7 Miami Dolphins
27. 71.1 Jacksonville Jaguars
28. 70.5 Chicago Bears
29. 69.0 Cleveland Browns
30. 67.9 New York Jets
31. 66.6 San Francisco 49ers
32. 65.1 Los Angeles Rams

Last season, there were 22 teams with an 80+ score. This year, the quality of football is down considerably, with only 14 teams with an 80+ score. Perhaps this drop in the quality of football teams is part of the reason for the drop off in fan attendance and viewership, among other things...

Also, you can tell by my post count that I am a new poster at this site. So it's a cheap shot to ask me to point to older posts - although I did post the 2017 rankings before either game started yesterday in the thread about the Philadelphia Eagles owner dancing.
 
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Jumbo075 said:
The Jaguars have been flying under the radar all year as one of the better NFL teams. It wouldn't be a shock to see them win it all. In my final statistical rankings of the teams at the end of the regular season, and the Jaguars rank #1 - followed by Philadelphia, Minnesota, and New England.

New England ranks the lowest of the final 4 teams, mainly because their defense ranks 28th in the NFL. If the Patriots fail to make another Super Bowl this season, it will be because of their defense. Also, the strength of the Jaguars defense is their pass defense, and they are a tough matchup for the Patriots because the Patriots lack the star power at the receiver position that the Steelers have.

Lastly, although the Eagles rank ahead of the Vikings, and they are playing at home, the reality is that it is hard to trust that Nick Foles will deliver. If Wentz was still healthy, you'd have to favor the Eagles, but we'll see if they can hold off the Vikings with Foles.

My final regular season rankings: (And then there were 4)

1. 92.5 Jacksonville Jaguars
2. 91.9 Philadelphia Eagles
3. 90.3 Minnesota Vikings
4. 89.9 New England Patriots

5. 88.2 New Orleans Saints
6. 88.0 Pittsburgh Steelers
7. 86.6 Los Angeles Rams
8. 86.5 Los Angeles Chargers
9. 86.1 Carolina Panthers
10. 86.0 Baltimore Ravens
11. 84.3 Kansas City Chiefs
12. 83.3 Atlanta Falcons
13. 81.8 Detroit Lions
14. 81.5 Dallas Cowboys
15. 79.5 Arizona Cardinals
16. 79.5 Tennesee Titans
17. 79.0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
18. 77.7 Seattle Seahawks
19. 77.6 Buffalo Bills
20. 77.5 Chicago Bears
21. 77.1 Washington Commanders
22. 76.2 Green Bay Packers
23. 74.9 San Francisco 49ers
24. 74.3 Houston Texans
25. 73.3 Denver Broncos
26. 73.2 New York Jets
27. 73.1 Indianapolis Colts
28. 71.9 Oakland Raiders
29. 71.7 New York Giants
30. 70.2 Miami Dolphins
31. 69.9 Cincinnati Bengals
32. 66.4 Cleveland Browns
Click to expand...
Would you mind explaining your methodology for calculating these numbers?
 
TimHortons said:
Would you mind explaining your methodology for calculating these numbers?
Click to expand...

I use passing offense yards, rushing offense yards, passing defense yards, rushing defense yards, penalty yardage for, penalty yardage against, turnover and turnover differential to come up with a basic strength score. Then, I do an adjustment for strength of schedule based on the average base score of all the teams played to date. Then I adjust for points scored, and points allowed, and finally divide it all out by the number of games played.

If you add up the scores, they always come out to exactly 2560 points at the end of the season, which is 80 points per team. During the time that the bye weeks are occurring, the average is slightly more or slightly less due to the difference in the number of games played. But once all the teams are back on the same number of games played, the average of all scores is always EXACTLY 80 points per team - which is the baseline score. The raw numbers are actually a positive or negative number, which increases above or below the 80 point average. So, in raw terms, a -10.5 score equates to a 69.5 grade, while a +15 score equates to a 95.0 score. The highest regular season score ever achieved was the perfect season of the Patriots in 2007, where they had a 105.3 point regular season score.

The formula I use was refined over 6 seasons from 1998 through the 2003 seasons. In 2004, I eliminated all special teams statistics, and added in penalty yardage, which resulted in a much more accurate ranking. But if a team is especially good, or especially bad at special teams, that will not be reflected in the rankings. The most egregious example of this was the year the Chargers ranked #1 in both offense and defense, but missed the playoffs due to catastrophically bad special teams play, and a really bad turnover ratio.
 
Asklesko said:
Did you bet?
Click to expand...

No. But there was a member of the old DC.com forum that used my rankings to place bets. I'm not a gambler myself. Also, these statistics are strictly a measurement of past performance, and are not necessarily accurate predictors of what will happen.

You might, for example, discount the Eagles score, which has dropped 3 full points since Wentz was lost to injury - which means they are averaging much lower than their full season score since Wentz was lost for the season. The average for the Eagles is not weighted for most recent performance. It is strictly a raw average over the entire season.

Conversely, the Patriots ranked around 9th or 10th most of the season, until the last month - when their average rose substantially, indicating they are peaking at the right time. I have charts for each division, which track the season long performance of each team in a graphical representation. This year, Dallas never ranked higher than 12th, and that was at their peak rating, right before Elliott started serving his suspension.

If I wanted to use Calculus, and calculate the rate of change in the slopes of the lines in the performance distributions, I suppose I could do that. But this is simply a hobby I developed during the Dave Campo years to keep me engaged in the NFL as a fan when the Cowboys really, really sucked.

It is mainly for my own edification to track how teams are ACTUALLY performing during the season, regardless of their win/loss record. I would have told you last year that the Giants 11-5 record was a mirage, with their abysmal 22nd NFL ranking. And digging inside the statistics, I know why. This year was very disappointing, in that the Cowboys never achieved top 10 status, even as they held the #1 spot for most of last season until they tailed off at the end.
 
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Here is a chart of the raw weekly ratings: Add 80 to the raw ratings to get the weekly grade for any particular team:

AFC East Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Buffalo Bills 4.5 5.9 7.6 10.2 6.5 6.1 6.8 8.3 2.1 -2.2 -6.4 -4.6 -4.7 -4.5 -2.6 -3.9 -2.4
Miami Dolphins 0.0 1.0 -8.2 -12.0 -6.1 -2.5 -0.8 -6.3 -5.0 -7.8 -9.7 -10.3 -8.5 -6.4 -7.5 -8.8 -9.9
New England Patriots -7.5 2.1 2.6 6.9 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 6.3 9.0 10.0 10.0 7.8 8.0 9.1 9.9
New York Jets -4.5 -18.4 -10.5 -8.0 -7.0 -8.2 -8.1 -8.3 -3.5 -5.6 -6.5 -5.7 -5.0 -6.9 -5.6 -5.9 -6.8
AFC North Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Baltimore Ravens 10.0 20.9 1.4 -3.9 0.0 -4.0 -3.1 2.1 1.9 1.3 4.3 5.1 7.2 7.4 7.9 7.3 6.0
Cincinnati Bengals -10.0 -14.6 -17.7 -7.5 -3.7 -5.2 -10.3 -10.8 -11.8 -12.7 -11.5 -10.1 -10.1 -12.4 -12.8 -11.3 -10.1
Cleveland Browns -1.5 5.7 -7.4 -11.5 -9.2 -11.5 -12.7 -12.3 -12.0 -10.9 -10.6 -11.6 -11.4 -11.9 -12.6 -14.0 -13.6
Pittsburgh Steelers 1.5 4.5 1.6 6.3 1.2 3.6 7.0 6.9 6.7 5.8 8.9 7.4 7.3 6.6 6.2 8.1 8.0
AFC South Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Houston Texans -11.0 -21.0 -9.0 9.5 6.5 9.6 8.7 7.7 5.2 1.5 2.8 2.2 1.0 -0.6 -3.1 -4.8 -5.7
Indianapolis Colts -18.5 -24.9 -12.3 -16.5 -11.4 -13.6 -14.0 -12.5 -9.4 -8.5 -8.7 -8.6 -8.4 -8.5 -8.7 -8.2 -6.9
Jacksonville Jaguars 11.0 2.0 20.3 10.9 16 14.4 16.7 17.3 17.7 15.7 16.6 14.8 14.9 14.9 17.2 14.6 12.5
Tennesee Titans -5.0 17.9 17.4 -3.6 -5.7 -1.6 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.7 -2.1 -1.4 0.2 -1.8 -2.3 -2.5 -0.5
AFC West Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Denver Broncos 1.5 12.3 6.4 7.8 6.9 2.3 0.2 -0.8 -6.7 -9.3 -9.9 -10.3 -10.8 -7.9 -6.8 -7.1 -6.7
Kansas City Chiefs 7.5 4.7 7.0 12.0 12.0 8.2 6.1 6.0 4.0 3.6 1.8 0.5 -0.2 0.7 3.1 4.4 4.3
Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 2.7 -5.9 -5.3 -3.9 -3.9 0.2 -1.2 -2.2 -1.2 3.8 6.0 6.3 8.4 5.8 5.6 6.6
Oakland Raiders 5.0 11.8 7.7 -3.3 -7.2 -8.5 -6.2 -7.0 -7.3 -8.0 -10.7 -8.8 -7.5 -8.4 -7.5 -7.1 -8.1
NFC East Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Dallas Cowboys 8.0 -2.6 -2.7 -5.0 -5.8 -6.7 0.6 2.3 3.4 1.1 -2.7 -5.0 -1.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.5
New York Giants -8.0 -13.9 -15.4 -11.5 -10.03 -6.3 -5.9 -6.0 -10.3 -10.6 -8.0 -8.8 -9.3 -10.7 -9.7 -10.8 -8.3
Philadelphia Eagles 6.5 5.1 6.2 6.0 9.6 6.4 6.6 8.1 12.3 12.7 15.5 16.2 13.4 14.6 13.5 13.4 11.9
Washington Commanders -6.5 6.6 15.4 7.0 6.5 3.2 2.0 0.5 2.5 3.2 2.8 3.9 0.2 -1.5 -1.7 -0.7 -2.9
NFC North Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Chicago Bears -3.0 -0.2 -6.4 -11.3 -10.67 -6.5 -3.7 -2.2 -2.2 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -4.2 -1.8 -3.3 -1.7 -2.5
Detroit Lions 6.0 8.2 6.0 5.1 6.3 5.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.0 3.8 2.2 -0.3 -0.1 1.1 -0.3 1.8
Green Bay Packers 4.0 -5.8 -7.5 0.6 2.9 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.4 1.5 -1.4 -0.4 0.3 1.0 -0.6 -1.9 -3.8
Minnesota Vikings 5.0 -8.9 6.6 6.1 5.1 8.7 8.1 8.7 8.6 8.1 10.4 10.9 10.1 8.4 8.6 10.0 10.3
NFC South Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Atlanta Falcons 3.0 2.3 6.8 5.2 5.7 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.0 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.2 3.1 3.5 2.1 3.3
Carolina Panthers 10.0 15.8 2.3 5.7 2.3 4.5 1.3 3.2 3.7 7.2 7.3 6.4 5.3 6.4 7.5 7.8 6.1
New Orleans Saints -5.0 -12.0 3.8 7.9 7.9 10.5 9.4 7.2 8.8 13.0 12.1 10.9 10.6 9.2 8.4 9.3 8.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.0 11.0 1.3 -3.6 1.1 1.7 -0.8 -2.4 -4.9 -3.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.9 -1.0
NFC West Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Arizona Cardinals -6.0 -3.2 -0.9 -7.2 -6.8 -5.2 -11.1 -10.8 -7.6 -6.5 -7.9 -6.4 -6.4 -4.2 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5
Los Angeles Rams 18.5 -0.5 0.8 2.1 -0.9 -0.6 4.8 4.8 8.8 11.7 8.3 8.2 8.0 6.3 8.7 8.7 6.6
San Francisco 49ers -10.0 -9.7 -14.1 -3.7 -7.8 -5.6 -11.2 -12.3 -12.0 -10.3 -10.8 -11.4 -10.4 -8.7 -8.5 -5.7 -5.1
Seattle Seahawks -4.0 -9.1 -5.6 0.6 1.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.2 1.3 -0.1 0.7 2.5 1.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4
 
Jumbo075 said:
I didn't say I knew it all along. I said I am not surprised. And I've been doing these rankings for 20 years, and posting them on the DC.com site. I can't help they've shut it down.

And by the way, here are my rankings from the 2016 season, just for comparison:

1. 92.5 New England Patriots
2. 91.1 Atlanta Falcons
3. 88.1 Dallas Cowboys
4. 86.3 Green Bay Packers
5. 85.1 Arizona Cardinals
6. 84.9 Kansas City Chiefs
7. 83.9 Oakland Raiders
8. 83.7 Pittsburgh Steelers
9. 83.7 Cincinnati Bengals
10. 83.4 Tennesee Titans
11. 83.0 Washington Commanders
12. 82.9 Philadelphia Eagles
13. 82.7 Seattle Seahawks
14. 81.9 Minnesota Vikings
15. 81.8 Denver Broncos
16. 81.4 New Orleans Saints
17. 81.2 Buffalo Bills
18. 80.7 Carolina Panthers
19. 80.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20. 80.5 Baltimore Ravens
21. 80.2 Indianapolis Colts
22. 80.0 New York Giants
23. 79.4 Houston Texans
24. 78.7 San Diego Chargers
25. 78.6 Detroit Lions
26. 73.7 Miami Dolphins
27. 71.1 Jacksonville Jaguars
28. 70.5 Chicago Bears
29. 69.0 Cleveland Browns
30. 67.9 New York Jets
31. 66.6 San Francisco 49ers
32. 65.1 Los Angeles Rams

Last season, there were 22 teams with an 80+ score. This year, the quality of football is down considerably, with only 14 teams with an 80+ score. Perhaps this drop in the quality of football teams is part of the reason for the drop off in fan attendance and viewership, among other things...

Also, you can tell by my post count that I am a new poster at this site. So it's a cheap shot to ask me to point to older posts - although I did post the 2017 rankings before either game started yesterday in the thread about the Philadelphia Eagles owner dancing.
Click to expand...

I see. So you didn't say you knew it all along, you just claimed your rankings had those teams in the top four.

Would've been more convincing had you posted them Friday.
 
Jake said:
I see. So you didn't say you knew it all along, you just claimed your rankings had those teams in the top four.

Would've been more convincing had you posted them Friday.
Click to expand...

I posted the season long chart of numbers that underlies the rankings, and you can look at it if you want to.

I'm not trying to convince you. I'm just sharing. You don't find it of any interest? Fine with me.
 
Proof said:
this is interesting and a fun read. appreciate you sharing and answering questions despite other posters acting like jerks for no apparent reason
Click to expand...

Thanks. To tell the truth, I mainly posted the rankings because there are so many former members of the DC.com Forum joining this website, and they were used to seeing me post these rankings there since 2005. It was a courtesy to them, and I don't really care if long-time members of this website believe me or not.

As most of the members of the old forum know, I taught Math, Electrical Theory, and Air Conditioning Systems design in college for 2-1/2 years. I am an engineer, and am currently the Chief Mechanical Engineer for a major college in Texas. I do the football statistics for fun on Sundays. In my day job, I am responsible for other things. I stopped being a Professor because my current job pays a lot more.
 
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I can say I thought Jax would beat Pittsburgh... before the last 2 weeks of the season, and then only scoring 10 vs Buff, kinda changed my mind on that.

Not surprised they won, hella surprised in the way they won. Pittsburgh were pulling rabbits out their hats, never were really sold on them.
 
Gameover said:
I can say I thought Jax would beat Pittsburgh... before the last 2 weeks of the season, and then only scoring 10 vs Buff, kinda changed my mind on that.

Not surprised they won, hella surprised in the way they won. Pittsburgh were pulling rabbits out their hats, never were really sold on them.
Click to expand...

Their overall score dropped from a 97.2 to a 92.5 in the last two weeks of the season. They didn't really have a motivation to play well the last week, as the loss in Week 16 locked them into the #3 seed, and it didn't matter if they won against the Titans the final week. But their 30-9 shellacking of Pittsburgh in Week 5 should have been a clue that they knew how to beat the Steelers in Heinz Field.

As for Pittsburgh, when was the last time you saw a team score touchdowns on 3 4th down plays? Never?
 
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