Doomsday101
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The collective bargaining agreement is finally, painfully done. Okay, so the league still doesn't know when free agency starts. Despite published reports to the contrary, look for the NFL to announce a start time of Saturday or Sunday at 12:01 A.M. They mean it this time!
We do know a few of the new rules. The salary cap is now set at $102 million, which is $7.5 million more than the old number. Now that teams know what they are working with, they can start cutting and re-signing their own players at will. The roster purging won't be as intense, but we still expect a lot of movement over the next week. Willie McGinest has already been cut by the Patriots.
The biggest winners in this decision are free agents like Drew Brees and Edgerrin James. There is suddenly an extra $240 million available on the free agent market for teams to spend. Now that we know the rules, here are some answers to the biggest questions hanging in the NFL.
Question: Will the new CBA keep Drew Brees in San Diego?
Anwser: No. There are hard feelings between Brees and Chargers general manager A.J. Smith, who wants Phillip Rivers to take over. The two sniped at each other in the papers last week, and this agreement makes it even more likely Brees will leave. He's the No. 1 free agent on the market.
The Dolphins are considered the front-runners to sign Brees and will now have more spending money. He already has a visit scheduled. Detroit and Green Bay are two darkhorse teams with plenty of cap room who have shown interest. Minnesota appears to be the biggest challenger to Miami. They will have to move fast on unloading Daunte Culpepper, but Brees would fit their offense and they could offer him the biggest contract.
Q: Has Daunte Culpepper lost his mind?
A: Yes, great question! Culpepper is recovering from a devastating knee injury and is due a $6 million roster bonus this month. Naturally, he decided to fire his agent, represent himself, and ask for a huge raise. C-Pep hit bottom Wednesday when he sent an unsolicited email to ESPN asking to be traded or released. That playoff win with Randy Moss in Lambeau seems a lot longer than 14 months ago.
Culpepper's relationship with the Vikings has reached the point of no return. Miami will be the most likely landing spot, but only if they can't sign Brees. Baltimore is likely to show interest, and don't rule out Oakland and Arizona making late bids. However, Culpepper's health for the 2006 season is still in doubt.
Q: Is Kerry Collins still a Raider?
A: Yep. Collins probably learned of his supposed release while watching television Sunday. Even the Associated Press ran with the story. It turns out the CBA extension kept him in Oakland, if only for the week. The Raiders are believed to be interested in keeping him at a lower price, but Collins is reportedly sick of the franchise. He is likely to get cut still. Look for the Ravens to make a run at him to compete with Kyle Boller.
Q: What's up with the Denver backfield?
A: The backfield that used to be certifiable fantasy gold is now a quagmire. Mike Shanahan thanked Mike Anderson for his 1,014 yards and 13 touchdowns by cutting the low-priced veteran. He wanted to save money to pursue big names like John Abraham and Terrell Owens. Tatum Bell was an explosive backup, but the team doesn't trust him to carry the load. The early favorite to be Denver's Week 1 starting running back is … (you might want to take a seat) … Ron Dayne!
Dayne isn't even a Bronco, but he's expected to re-sign once the new year starts. He is a very interesting fantasy player to own in dynasty leagues. Expect the Broncos to also select a running back on the first day of the draft.
Q: What players signed too quickly?
A: Ahman Green and Travis Henry should look for new agents. With an uncertain free agent market looming, both panicked and took tiny deals to stay with their respective teams. The Packers only gave Green a $500,000 signing bonus. He will have to compete for playing time and could be cut during training camp with a minimal cap hit. Henry took the league minimum with incentives to stay in Tennessee and compete with Chris Brown.
Q: What team panicked?
A: The Rams cut Isaac Bruce loose days before they had to. Now he's on the free agent market with raw feelings while being pursued by the Texans, Commanders and Lions. We'd be very surprised if he returned to St. Louis, which means Kevin Curtis is hitting a fantasy sleeper list near you shortly.
Q: Where is Edgerrin James headed?
A: Shaun Alexander is staying in Seattle and the CBA extension makes it possible for Edge to stay with the Colts. Judging by James' postseason comments, we wouldn't expect it. Like 98 percent of the players, James will play for whoever pays him the most. Like we all would. There aren't many natural fits.
Minnesota, Baltimore and Jacksonville all have spending money and have a need at the position. Alexander's huge deal will make him more difficult to sign because James is a superior player in almost every respect.
Q: What teams are hurt most by the new CBA?
A: The Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Packers and Lions were all poised to take advantage of huge salary cap space and very little competition for top players. They are still in great shape, but can't cherry pick any players they want like they would have been able to before.
Q: What teams benefited the most from the new CBA?
A: The Commanders simply weren't prepared under the old model. They would have cut over 10 players and had no flexibility to sign free agents and rookies. They are still tight against the cap, but can possibly free up room for a receiver now. The Dolphins also will be able to be much more aggressive in free agency.
Q: Who are some exciting players people are forgetting about?
A: David Givens and Antonio Bryant were both far more productive receivers than Antwaan Randle El in 2005. Givens is safer, but both are ready-made NFL starters. Look for the Browns to aggressively go after Givens.
Najeh Davenport and Chester Taylor are two attractive middle-tier running backs who could be the next LaMont Jordan. Taylor is reportedly seeking a Jordan-like contract. Don't be shocked if he ends up in Cleveland or Indianapolis as Edgerrin James' replacement.
Aaron Brooks has won a lot of games as an NFL starting quarterback, with solid numbers. He has issues, but surely he's a better target than Jon Kitna, Chris Weinke and Josh McCown. The Saints are expected to release Brooks shortly.
On defense, Charles Woodson is a young four-time Pro Bowl cornerback. He has a lot of warts, but look for a team like the Jaguars to give him big money. Rocky Bernard and Ryan Pickett are two underrated and cost-effective options at defensive tackle. Julian Peterson should be very intriguing to 3-4 teams like the Patriots.
Q: What's the most confusing position in football?
A: The Jets' quarterback position. First, they re-signed Chad Pennington for $3 million for 2006 because they couldn't afford to cut him. But it's clear they aren't counting on him. The team worked out Patrick Ramsey Wednesday and is reportedly planning to pounce on Kitna in free agency Huh? Kitna has been one of the most consistently error-prone players his entire career. The Jets also have the fourth pick in a draft loaded with top-shelf quarterbacks. Can they really afford to have Jay Cutler or Matt Leinart as their No. 3 quarterback?
Q: How come the Rams were allowed to sign defensive tackle LaRoi Glover? I thought free agency hasn't started.
A: This one has confused a shocking amount of lazy national football writers. Players officially released last week like Glover, Mike Anderson, Kevin Mawae and Isaac Bruce are free to sign with new teams 24 hours after being let go. Look for action on Mawae and Bruce to pick up following the CBA agreement.
Q: You didn't think an entire article was going to pass without mentioning T.O., did you?
A: The Terrell Owens Chronicles begin anew this week. The Eagles still have an outside chance of getting a late-round draft pick for him. It's more likely they will release him within the next week. Kansas City, Denver and Dallas appear to be the most likely suitors. We're betting on the Tuna taking a one-year, incentive-laden deal chance on him. They deserve each other.
We do know a few of the new rules. The salary cap is now set at $102 million, which is $7.5 million more than the old number. Now that teams know what they are working with, they can start cutting and re-signing their own players at will. The roster purging won't be as intense, but we still expect a lot of movement over the next week. Willie McGinest has already been cut by the Patriots.
The biggest winners in this decision are free agents like Drew Brees and Edgerrin James. There is suddenly an extra $240 million available on the free agent market for teams to spend. Now that we know the rules, here are some answers to the biggest questions hanging in the NFL.
Question: Will the new CBA keep Drew Brees in San Diego?
Anwser: No. There are hard feelings between Brees and Chargers general manager A.J. Smith, who wants Phillip Rivers to take over. The two sniped at each other in the papers last week, and this agreement makes it even more likely Brees will leave. He's the No. 1 free agent on the market.
The Dolphins are considered the front-runners to sign Brees and will now have more spending money. He already has a visit scheduled. Detroit and Green Bay are two darkhorse teams with plenty of cap room who have shown interest. Minnesota appears to be the biggest challenger to Miami. They will have to move fast on unloading Daunte Culpepper, but Brees would fit their offense and they could offer him the biggest contract.
Q: Has Daunte Culpepper lost his mind?
A: Yes, great question! Culpepper is recovering from a devastating knee injury and is due a $6 million roster bonus this month. Naturally, he decided to fire his agent, represent himself, and ask for a huge raise. C-Pep hit bottom Wednesday when he sent an unsolicited email to ESPN asking to be traded or released. That playoff win with Randy Moss in Lambeau seems a lot longer than 14 months ago.
Culpepper's relationship with the Vikings has reached the point of no return. Miami will be the most likely landing spot, but only if they can't sign Brees. Baltimore is likely to show interest, and don't rule out Oakland and Arizona making late bids. However, Culpepper's health for the 2006 season is still in doubt.
Q: Is Kerry Collins still a Raider?
A: Yep. Collins probably learned of his supposed release while watching television Sunday. Even the Associated Press ran with the story. It turns out the CBA extension kept him in Oakland, if only for the week. The Raiders are believed to be interested in keeping him at a lower price, but Collins is reportedly sick of the franchise. He is likely to get cut still. Look for the Ravens to make a run at him to compete with Kyle Boller.
Q: What's up with the Denver backfield?
A: The backfield that used to be certifiable fantasy gold is now a quagmire. Mike Shanahan thanked Mike Anderson for his 1,014 yards and 13 touchdowns by cutting the low-priced veteran. He wanted to save money to pursue big names like John Abraham and Terrell Owens. Tatum Bell was an explosive backup, but the team doesn't trust him to carry the load. The early favorite to be Denver's Week 1 starting running back is … (you might want to take a seat) … Ron Dayne!
Dayne isn't even a Bronco, but he's expected to re-sign once the new year starts. He is a very interesting fantasy player to own in dynasty leagues. Expect the Broncos to also select a running back on the first day of the draft.
Q: What players signed too quickly?
A: Ahman Green and Travis Henry should look for new agents. With an uncertain free agent market looming, both panicked and took tiny deals to stay with their respective teams. The Packers only gave Green a $500,000 signing bonus. He will have to compete for playing time and could be cut during training camp with a minimal cap hit. Henry took the league minimum with incentives to stay in Tennessee and compete with Chris Brown.
Q: What team panicked?
A: The Rams cut Isaac Bruce loose days before they had to. Now he's on the free agent market with raw feelings while being pursued by the Texans, Commanders and Lions. We'd be very surprised if he returned to St. Louis, which means Kevin Curtis is hitting a fantasy sleeper list near you shortly.
Q: Where is Edgerrin James headed?
A: Shaun Alexander is staying in Seattle and the CBA extension makes it possible for Edge to stay with the Colts. Judging by James' postseason comments, we wouldn't expect it. Like 98 percent of the players, James will play for whoever pays him the most. Like we all would. There aren't many natural fits.
Minnesota, Baltimore and Jacksonville all have spending money and have a need at the position. Alexander's huge deal will make him more difficult to sign because James is a superior player in almost every respect.
Q: What teams are hurt most by the new CBA?
A: The Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Packers and Lions were all poised to take advantage of huge salary cap space and very little competition for top players. They are still in great shape, but can't cherry pick any players they want like they would have been able to before.
Q: What teams benefited the most from the new CBA?
A: The Commanders simply weren't prepared under the old model. They would have cut over 10 players and had no flexibility to sign free agents and rookies. They are still tight against the cap, but can possibly free up room for a receiver now. The Dolphins also will be able to be much more aggressive in free agency.
Q: Who are some exciting players people are forgetting about?
A: David Givens and Antonio Bryant were both far more productive receivers than Antwaan Randle El in 2005. Givens is safer, but both are ready-made NFL starters. Look for the Browns to aggressively go after Givens.
Najeh Davenport and Chester Taylor are two attractive middle-tier running backs who could be the next LaMont Jordan. Taylor is reportedly seeking a Jordan-like contract. Don't be shocked if he ends up in Cleveland or Indianapolis as Edgerrin James' replacement.
Aaron Brooks has won a lot of games as an NFL starting quarterback, with solid numbers. He has issues, but surely he's a better target than Jon Kitna, Chris Weinke and Josh McCown. The Saints are expected to release Brooks shortly.
On defense, Charles Woodson is a young four-time Pro Bowl cornerback. He has a lot of warts, but look for a team like the Jaguars to give him big money. Rocky Bernard and Ryan Pickett are two underrated and cost-effective options at defensive tackle. Julian Peterson should be very intriguing to 3-4 teams like the Patriots.
Q: What's the most confusing position in football?
A: The Jets' quarterback position. First, they re-signed Chad Pennington for $3 million for 2006 because they couldn't afford to cut him. But it's clear they aren't counting on him. The team worked out Patrick Ramsey Wednesday and is reportedly planning to pounce on Kitna in free agency Huh? Kitna has been one of the most consistently error-prone players his entire career. The Jets also have the fourth pick in a draft loaded with top-shelf quarterbacks. Can they really afford to have Jay Cutler or Matt Leinart as their No. 3 quarterback?
Q: How come the Rams were allowed to sign defensive tackle LaRoi Glover? I thought free agency hasn't started.
A: This one has confused a shocking amount of lazy national football writers. Players officially released last week like Glover, Mike Anderson, Kevin Mawae and Isaac Bruce are free to sign with new teams 24 hours after being let go. Look for action on Mawae and Bruce to pick up following the CBA agreement.
Q: You didn't think an entire article was going to pass without mentioning T.O., did you?
A: The Terrell Owens Chronicles begin anew this week. The Eagles still have an outside chance of getting a late-round draft pick for him. It's more likely they will release him within the next week. Kansas City, Denver and Dallas appear to be the most likely suitors. We're betting on the Tuna taking a one-year, incentive-laden deal chance on him. They deserve each other.
