Once in a Lifetime WR

[xwalker]

Precisely. And the WR is at an advantage by default; there’s no pass rush affecting the QB; there’s no linemen obscuring the passing windows; the CB is reacting to the what the WR is doing, et cetera.

I personally think Duvernay is too rocked up (built like a RB) and stuff to be truly effective in short areas to create space for himself. Can he improve? Sure. To what extent I’m not sure. He’s at his best running linear routes: 9’s, posts, slants

In general, yes the WR has an advantage; however, many of those routes were near the sideline and a Nickel CB covering a slot WR does not have "help" from the sideline. Slot WRs have a 2-way go and the Nickel CB can't react until the WR has made his cut. On the outside there is more time for the DB to react/recover after the WRs cut but up near the line covering a slot WR the ball gets there much faster.

 

[JBell]

If I had to make a case for Duvernay, I'd say that the track record for sub-4.4 WRs drafted in the last 4 years has been very good.

The only guys I'm seeing on that list who were just a straight-up bad picks are John Ross and Josh Malone (both Bengals coincidentially... sucks to suck, Cincinnati), for all the rest, I think the team would be happy with what they invested.

Based on tape I don't see Duvernay making it, but in light of the how much of a speed-based game pro football is becoming, I could justify a 4th rounder.

The only other correlation I've seen for NFL WR success besides height/weight/speed is college team target share, and Duvernay did great in that regard as well (70th percentile target hog in the nation). I personally discounted that because he got fed twelve billion bubble screens on manufactured touches, but if you're just trusting the statistics, then hey.

Nice post. Makes me like Darnell Mooney as a day 3 sleeper even more.

I agree with Cal, that ideally I'd like us to get a 3rd WR who has proven he can win in the slot - otherwise we could be pigeon holing Coop to play most of his snaps there. But then again, I love me some Denzel Mims *shrugs*

 

[beware_d-ware]

FWIW - 75% of fourth rounders don't end up becoming starters, so when I say I don't see Duvernay making it, that's normal for his draft range. Most of those guys aren't going to make it. You're looking for players who have traits that give them a chance to break the mold, and I think his speed qualifies.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Didn't he win most of those reps?

He definitely ran simple routes in college. He does not project to be a full time "starting" slot WR as rookie.

As a slot WR, Nickel CBs won't have the sideline to help them. Playing with a 2-way go benefits a player like Duvernay.

He is fast with a solid RB-ish build (5'10-1/2", 200, 4.39 forty) and is very good after the catch.

It's not a requirement, but it's nice to have a slot WR with deep speed and reasonable size to be a threat on intermediate/deep routes.
- Defenses often played back on 3rd and long type situations against Beasley because they didn't fear him running beating them deep.
- That didn't limit Beasley's stats but it made it easier for defenses to cover other receivers.

With regards to the Cowboys, I think Tony Pollard can do most of what Duvernay can do as a receiver plus Pollard can play as a legit RB.

I'm not jumping up and down to draft Duvernay but I think he would be a solid 4th round pick.

How many of those passes did you see him catch? I’ll give you the deep routes but that’s not what I’m arguing.

You can see in the video his releases are pretty poor and unrefined (look at Van Jefferson comparatively). He’s not creating separation and winning in those short routes. Beasley, love him or hate him, made a nice living being able to do just that.

 

[xwalker]

How many of those passes did you see him catch? I’ll give you the deep routes but that’s not what I’m arguing.

You can see in the video his releases are pretty poor and unrefined (look at Van Jefferson comparatively). He’s not creating separation and winning in those short routes. Beasley, love him or hate him, made a nice living being able to do just that.

We're talking about a projected 4th round pick.

If the discussion was about similar sized WR Ruggs as the pick at #17 then it's a completely different expectation.

Van Jefferson is projected to go about a full round earlier than Duvernay.

Duvernay was not asked to play like Beasley. They either ran him deep or got him the ball short to see if he could gain yards after the catch.

I don't see a physical reason that he can't develop short area route running.

Like many prospects, I would want to know more about his mental makeup to see if he is coach-able and smart enough to understand NFL scheme concepts.