jday
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In my last contribution, I pointed out that there is nothing better than having nothing to do on the weekend. This past weekend proved to be the opposite of ideal, as it featured a Honey-Do list from hell. Much of said list was the usual standard-fare (mow the lawn, do the dishes, misc cleaning), however, one task on this list was a somewhat massive undertaking.
Roughly two years ago I installed an 18” above-ground pool on the side of a hill, otherwise known as my backyard. To install this monster, I had to dig into the hill on one side and build up on the other side with sand bags in an effort to create a pool-sustaining level surface. Needless to say it proved to be a herculean-effort over the course of two days and a task I vowed never to undertake alone again. The pool in question survived two summers…and I have to say had I known it would only last two summers going in, I likely would have offered a hard-pass on the extracurricular addition all together.
During winter this past year a number of stray cats used the inflatable lip of my pool as a seat for taking a drink and in doing so, put several holes in it, rendering the pool useless. My task for the weekend was to remove the whole operation and put it on the curb for bulk trash pickup, which occurs on the last Monday of every month. The primary difficulty in this task was the fact that when I installed it, I used part bagged-sand and part free-sand to fill in that gaps between the bags of sand and therefore, I had to unearth the sand bags out of the ground after having been packed down by tons of water. All in all though, it could have been a lot worse; this job was made a whole lot easier by a certain concept surviving the test of time despite the advent of brain-washing smart phones: One man’s trash is still another man’s treasure.
My wife simply went to offerup.com, uploaded a picture of the bags of sand with Free in the title, and sat back while person after person responded with interest in devoting a little sweat-equity to otherwise free bags of sand. All they had to do was save me the trip from my backyard to the curb where our bulk-trash would normally go. Initially, given the state these sands bags were in after being buried for over two years, I thought there was no way this type of offering would generate any interest. I was very wrong. Three different sets of people showed up and saved me a very long afternoon lugging bag after ant infested sand bag from my backyard to the curb. Thank you offerup.com (cue cha-ching).
Anywho, this aforementioned cliché standing the test of time against all odds got me to thinking how I could segway this into yet another contribution from yours truly…and me-thinks, it’s a bit obvious where I’m going in the aftermath of the Dallas Cowboys delving deep into Free Agency action and excavating a number of treasures off of the NFL trash-heap.
For the casual fan, these names may not engender the excitement you may have been looking for a week ago, however, I beg you to tap the proverbial breaks before deciding the value of these newly-minted Cowboys. The first thing you have to know before deciding anything about the collection of players the Cowboys grabbed in the second/third week of Free Agency, is that these acquisitions were one hundred percent about not wanting to go into the draft with a bunch of have-to-haves on the first day.
This is something they have been doing now for a few years and all the same signs and symptoms are there in 2018. The first thing they do before dipping their toe in Free Agency is build their draft board so that they can determine what positions of need have the fewest amount of potential scheme-fits. Take last year, just for instance. Many thought given their ardent needs in the secondary (created by a massive exodus of the Cowboys entire starting secondary via Free Agency) that the Cowboys would draft for the secondary in the first round. Instead, the Cowboys took a hard look at the board, noticed there were still a good bit of corners they liked still available, noticed that DE’s were flying off the shelf and smartly got a guy they liked (Taco) despite the fact that at the time he may have been considered a reach (even by the Cowboys own board, which had him graded as a second rounder).
As we know now, that patience paid off big time, because they were still able to land Chidobe and Jourdan in the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectively, and both figure to be the Cowboys starting dynamic duo at corner in 2018. Furthermore, look for Taco to make a jump this year, as he will have had a full offseason in a strength and conditioning program and should be more physically prepared to compete with NFL-caliber offensive lineman.
Now let’s flash back forward to today:
If there’s a position deep like corner was a year ago, that position in my opinion, would have to be receiver. That fact, paired with the truth that first round receivers have not panned-out well for teams in recent years, and you could guess that this year there will be starting-caliber receivers available as late as the fourth round…potentially later. Another position that figures to have contributors still on the board late in the second day is Safety. So if they don’t see a Safety they really like at 19 (Minkah or Derwin), they will likely wait until day 3 to address that particular position, because the only way I see them drafting a Safety in rounds 2 through 4 is if they think the Safety is better than Kavon Frazier or Xavier Woods right now, which is very unlikely.
Taking a hard look at the Cowboys roster a week ago, you could reasonably guess that the following positions would be addressed at some point in the draft or Free Agency (in no particular order): Linebacker, Guard, Offensive Tackle (Swing or starting quality that justifies moving La’el back to Guard), Wide Receiver, Safety, Defensive End (RE – dependent on how the FO views Randall Gregory’s chances of a return), Defensive Tackle (1 and/or 3 tech). Of all those positions, only Guard and Linebacker should have been considered actual needs, since the Cowboys at least still had options at Receiver (Dez, TWill, Beasley), Safety (Byron Jones, Xavier Woods, Kavon Frazier), Defensive End (Taco, Crawford, Randall Gregory…still maybe), and Defensive Tackle (Maliek Collins, David Irving).
A week later, the Cowboys have added 2 wide receivers (1 of which should be considered starting caliber), one offensive tackle (who started on the right side for the Patriots in this past Super Bowl and who might justify moving La’el back to LG), one guard (who has starting experience and has the flexibility to play Center), a Full Back via trade with the Raiders and a linebacker (who is more or less a stop-gap solution and Special Teams contributor who likely replaces Kyle Wilber on the depth chart).
The last point we as a fanbase must take in consideration is that the Cowboys have at their disposal 10 picks to work with in this year’s draft coupled with the knowledge that 10 rookies quite simply are not making this team in August.
With the above details firmly in place acting as the lenses through which we look at the future, you should be able to get a good idea of a draft day gameplan the Cowboys may be considering:
1. The Cowboys are not planning on letting the draft come to them. However, the cost to move up in the first (or back into it) is way too high; I believe teams tend to over-value that fifth year option, but for some players it certainly does come in handy…just not as often as you would think given the typical asking price to move up or back into the first round. My best guess has the Cowboys either drafting a middle linebacker (Rashaan Evans is my linebacking pet cat), Vita Vea (my ultimate pet cat, my want above all wants), or one of the top tier safeties (Minkah Fitzpatrick or Derwin James), should they fall to 19. Those three positions, if you haven’t already pieced it together, have something in common: they are middle fielders and as such, are crucial to the Cowboys defense taking the next logical step towards dominance. My preference would absolutely be Vita, but I’ll get over it provided they address the middle of the defense in some other meaningful way: Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Rashaan Evans, Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds…to name a few. As an aside, I believe 19 is too high for Leighton Vander Esch, in my opinion….I am leery of guy’s whose combine efforts alone put them in the first round. He was being discussed as late as the third round before the combine…just saying. I would be okay with him in the second round, if the following doesn’t happen.
2. In the second round is where I’m expecting the Cowboys to get busy in terms of trying to move up. The move I’m honestly expecting is a deal involving picks packaged with Cole Beasley. I love Beasley, but he is 29, currently a member of a crowded receiver room and likely the only guy that has value outside of Dallas that would not kill the cap trying to move him (like Dez, for instance). The guy I think they would target high in the second to make this move would be Beasley’s logical replacement Christian Kirk or DJ Moore (should they fall this far which I believe to be very possible). Note: The only way I cosign this acquisition is if they do in fact use Beasley. Otherwise, I am absolutely hoping they continue addressing the defense, where they currently still have the greatest need. The other aspect of this prediction involving Beasley to keep in mind is they have to find a willing partner for that trade…which is certainly not a given. Beasley is a first down machine…but not much more in terms of playmaking. If Christian Kirk or DJ Moore (absolute playmakers and then some) are available, it may make more sense to the team in possession of that opportunity to take one of them over trading for Beasley and a pick that may yield a whole bunch of nothing. My overall point is the Cowboys making this move would not surprise me…nor should it you.
3. The third, if not used to move up in the second, will likely be used to address whatever need (LB, S, G, DT) they didn’t in the first two rounds. My ideal scenario would have us take Vita in the first and a linebacker in the third or second dependent if their second was included in the Beasley package deal. Keep in mind, regardless of the linebacker or DT they draft, both will be viewed as 2 down / run stopping players, so if you are looking for a coverage linebacker, my guess is you are looking in the wrong place. In the Nickel and Dime, neither rookie DT or LB would see much time on the field during passing downs. That is a very important consideration, because there are many who believe Vita is not as good as he looks on his highlights versus his extended tape. The problem with that assessment is the lack of projection. Vita in college was playing the majority of snaps for his defense surrounded by subpar talent. In 2017 for the Huskies, Vea played 308 snaps at defensive tackle, 116 snaps at nose tackle and 108 snaps at defensive end. You can’t ask a guy his size to be consistently dominant on the snap count he was on with the linemates he had. Here, he would be part of a rotation featuring guys who demand double-teams by themselves (Demarcus Lawrence and David Irving). So like I’ve said before, adding a Vita, in my opinion, would be the equivalent of what adding Zeke to the Cowboys offensive line was in 2016: it would be taking a strength and making it dominant…and by extension, make whatever linebacker they plug in behind him better by merit of playing behind that stacked line…especially considering that linebacker will be on a similar snap count to that of Vita’s.
4. In the fourth, the Cowboys will either target a Swing Tackle, safety, running back (Nyheim Hines most likely doesn’t make it this far, but if he does, I would love it) receiver (if they weren’t able to in the second) or 2 of the 3 considering they currently have 2 fourth round picks.
5. From the fifth down, it will be about value BPA, with less of an emphasis on need and more about creating competition across the roster.
I’m no expert, but based on what I have seen the Cowboys do in recent years and the positions they seem to be targeting with their visits so far, this is how I could see things shaking out.
Thoughts?
Roughly two years ago I installed an 18” above-ground pool on the side of a hill, otherwise known as my backyard. To install this monster, I had to dig into the hill on one side and build up on the other side with sand bags in an effort to create a pool-sustaining level surface. Needless to say it proved to be a herculean-effort over the course of two days and a task I vowed never to undertake alone again. The pool in question survived two summers…and I have to say had I known it would only last two summers going in, I likely would have offered a hard-pass on the extracurricular addition all together.
During winter this past year a number of stray cats used the inflatable lip of my pool as a seat for taking a drink and in doing so, put several holes in it, rendering the pool useless. My task for the weekend was to remove the whole operation and put it on the curb for bulk trash pickup, which occurs on the last Monday of every month. The primary difficulty in this task was the fact that when I installed it, I used part bagged-sand and part free-sand to fill in that gaps between the bags of sand and therefore, I had to unearth the sand bags out of the ground after having been packed down by tons of water. All in all though, it could have been a lot worse; this job was made a whole lot easier by a certain concept surviving the test of time despite the advent of brain-washing smart phones: One man’s trash is still another man’s treasure.
My wife simply went to offerup.com, uploaded a picture of the bags of sand with Free in the title, and sat back while person after person responded with interest in devoting a little sweat-equity to otherwise free bags of sand. All they had to do was save me the trip from my backyard to the curb where our bulk-trash would normally go. Initially, given the state these sands bags were in after being buried for over two years, I thought there was no way this type of offering would generate any interest. I was very wrong. Three different sets of people showed up and saved me a very long afternoon lugging bag after ant infested sand bag from my backyard to the curb. Thank you offerup.com (cue cha-ching).
Anywho, this aforementioned cliché standing the test of time against all odds got me to thinking how I could segway this into yet another contribution from yours truly…and me-thinks, it’s a bit obvious where I’m going in the aftermath of the Dallas Cowboys delving deep into Free Agency action and excavating a number of treasures off of the NFL trash-heap.
For the casual fan, these names may not engender the excitement you may have been looking for a week ago, however, I beg you to tap the proverbial breaks before deciding the value of these newly-minted Cowboys. The first thing you have to know before deciding anything about the collection of players the Cowboys grabbed in the second/third week of Free Agency, is that these acquisitions were one hundred percent about not wanting to go into the draft with a bunch of have-to-haves on the first day.
This is something they have been doing now for a few years and all the same signs and symptoms are there in 2018. The first thing they do before dipping their toe in Free Agency is build their draft board so that they can determine what positions of need have the fewest amount of potential scheme-fits. Take last year, just for instance. Many thought given their ardent needs in the secondary (created by a massive exodus of the Cowboys entire starting secondary via Free Agency) that the Cowboys would draft for the secondary in the first round. Instead, the Cowboys took a hard look at the board, noticed there were still a good bit of corners they liked still available, noticed that DE’s were flying off the shelf and smartly got a guy they liked (Taco) despite the fact that at the time he may have been considered a reach (even by the Cowboys own board, which had him graded as a second rounder).
As we know now, that patience paid off big time, because they were still able to land Chidobe and Jourdan in the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectively, and both figure to be the Cowboys starting dynamic duo at corner in 2018. Furthermore, look for Taco to make a jump this year, as he will have had a full offseason in a strength and conditioning program and should be more physically prepared to compete with NFL-caliber offensive lineman.
Now let’s flash back forward to today:
If there’s a position deep like corner was a year ago, that position in my opinion, would have to be receiver. That fact, paired with the truth that first round receivers have not panned-out well for teams in recent years, and you could guess that this year there will be starting-caliber receivers available as late as the fourth round…potentially later. Another position that figures to have contributors still on the board late in the second day is Safety. So if they don’t see a Safety they really like at 19 (Minkah or Derwin), they will likely wait until day 3 to address that particular position, because the only way I see them drafting a Safety in rounds 2 through 4 is if they think the Safety is better than Kavon Frazier or Xavier Woods right now, which is very unlikely.
Taking a hard look at the Cowboys roster a week ago, you could reasonably guess that the following positions would be addressed at some point in the draft or Free Agency (in no particular order): Linebacker, Guard, Offensive Tackle (Swing or starting quality that justifies moving La’el back to Guard), Wide Receiver, Safety, Defensive End (RE – dependent on how the FO views Randall Gregory’s chances of a return), Defensive Tackle (1 and/or 3 tech). Of all those positions, only Guard and Linebacker should have been considered actual needs, since the Cowboys at least still had options at Receiver (Dez, TWill, Beasley), Safety (Byron Jones, Xavier Woods, Kavon Frazier), Defensive End (Taco, Crawford, Randall Gregory…still maybe), and Defensive Tackle (Maliek Collins, David Irving).
A week later, the Cowboys have added 2 wide receivers (1 of which should be considered starting caliber), one offensive tackle (who started on the right side for the Patriots in this past Super Bowl and who might justify moving La’el back to LG), one guard (who has starting experience and has the flexibility to play Center), a Full Back via trade with the Raiders and a linebacker (who is more or less a stop-gap solution and Special Teams contributor who likely replaces Kyle Wilber on the depth chart).
The last point we as a fanbase must take in consideration is that the Cowboys have at their disposal 10 picks to work with in this year’s draft coupled with the knowledge that 10 rookies quite simply are not making this team in August.
With the above details firmly in place acting as the lenses through which we look at the future, you should be able to get a good idea of a draft day gameplan the Cowboys may be considering:
1. The Cowboys are not planning on letting the draft come to them. However, the cost to move up in the first (or back into it) is way too high; I believe teams tend to over-value that fifth year option, but for some players it certainly does come in handy…just not as often as you would think given the typical asking price to move up or back into the first round. My best guess has the Cowboys either drafting a middle linebacker (Rashaan Evans is my linebacking pet cat), Vita Vea (my ultimate pet cat, my want above all wants), or one of the top tier safeties (Minkah Fitzpatrick or Derwin James), should they fall to 19. Those three positions, if you haven’t already pieced it together, have something in common: they are middle fielders and as such, are crucial to the Cowboys defense taking the next logical step towards dominance. My preference would absolutely be Vita, but I’ll get over it provided they address the middle of the defense in some other meaningful way: Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Rashaan Evans, Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds…to name a few. As an aside, I believe 19 is too high for Leighton Vander Esch, in my opinion….I am leery of guy’s whose combine efforts alone put them in the first round. He was being discussed as late as the third round before the combine…just saying. I would be okay with him in the second round, if the following doesn’t happen.
2. In the second round is where I’m expecting the Cowboys to get busy in terms of trying to move up. The move I’m honestly expecting is a deal involving picks packaged with Cole Beasley. I love Beasley, but he is 29, currently a member of a crowded receiver room and likely the only guy that has value outside of Dallas that would not kill the cap trying to move him (like Dez, for instance). The guy I think they would target high in the second to make this move would be Beasley’s logical replacement Christian Kirk or DJ Moore (should they fall this far which I believe to be very possible). Note: The only way I cosign this acquisition is if they do in fact use Beasley. Otherwise, I am absolutely hoping they continue addressing the defense, where they currently still have the greatest need. The other aspect of this prediction involving Beasley to keep in mind is they have to find a willing partner for that trade…which is certainly not a given. Beasley is a first down machine…but not much more in terms of playmaking. If Christian Kirk or DJ Moore (absolute playmakers and then some) are available, it may make more sense to the team in possession of that opportunity to take one of them over trading for Beasley and a pick that may yield a whole bunch of nothing. My overall point is the Cowboys making this move would not surprise me…nor should it you.
3. The third, if not used to move up in the second, will likely be used to address whatever need (LB, S, G, DT) they didn’t in the first two rounds. My ideal scenario would have us take Vita in the first and a linebacker in the third or second dependent if their second was included in the Beasley package deal. Keep in mind, regardless of the linebacker or DT they draft, both will be viewed as 2 down / run stopping players, so if you are looking for a coverage linebacker, my guess is you are looking in the wrong place. In the Nickel and Dime, neither rookie DT or LB would see much time on the field during passing downs. That is a very important consideration, because there are many who believe Vita is not as good as he looks on his highlights versus his extended tape. The problem with that assessment is the lack of projection. Vita in college was playing the majority of snaps for his defense surrounded by subpar talent. In 2017 for the Huskies, Vea played 308 snaps at defensive tackle, 116 snaps at nose tackle and 108 snaps at defensive end. You can’t ask a guy his size to be consistently dominant on the snap count he was on with the linemates he had. Here, he would be part of a rotation featuring guys who demand double-teams by themselves (Demarcus Lawrence and David Irving). So like I’ve said before, adding a Vita, in my opinion, would be the equivalent of what adding Zeke to the Cowboys offensive line was in 2016: it would be taking a strength and making it dominant…and by extension, make whatever linebacker they plug in behind him better by merit of playing behind that stacked line…especially considering that linebacker will be on a similar snap count to that of Vita’s.
4. In the fourth, the Cowboys will either target a Swing Tackle, safety, running back (Nyheim Hines most likely doesn’t make it this far, but if he does, I would love it) receiver (if they weren’t able to in the second) or 2 of the 3 considering they currently have 2 fourth round picks.
5. From the fifth down, it will be about value BPA, with less of an emphasis on need and more about creating competition across the roster.
I’m no expert, but based on what I have seen the Cowboys do in recent years and the positions they seem to be targeting with their visits so far, this is how I could see things shaking out.
Thoughts?
