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by Andy Simpson
9-7
Three of the last four years, the Dallas Cowboys have finished with a 9-7 record. While 9-7 can help fans forget the 5-11 three-peat from 2000-2002, the Stadium in Arlington Yet to be Named will suffer the same fate as the now-deceased Texas Stadium.
The Dallas Cowboys will go 9-7 again in 2009.
They will lose both to the Giants and split home games with the Eagles and Commanders. Dallas will benefit by playing two tough NFC South teams at home and the weak AFC West.
Parody will likely ruin this prediction like Jar-Jar Binks ruined Star Wars: Episode I. In light of parody, let's try to figure out what has to happen to move the Cowboys either up a tier to Super Bowl contender or down a tier to "Now on the clock..."
Let's assume that any significant development, such as Brad Johnson taking over for Tony Romo or Jay Ratliff becoming a Pro Bowler out of the seventh round, can swing wins and losses by at least two games.
Assuming that, we will try to predict how Dallas could in up in each of the four tiers: Now On The Clock, Dave Campo Rides Again, One Trick Tony, or Empire Strikes Back.
Now On The Clock
The Cowboys finish with a measly three wins, "highlighted" by thrilling victories over the Raiders on Thanksgiving and the Commanders for their only win at Tom Landry Stadium (the only acceptable name for the new stadium).
Jon Kitna takes over for an injured Tony Romo and leads the NFL in interceptions. Roy Williams leads the NFL in poorly-run routes, while Jason Witten leads all tight ends in double-coverage.
Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice rush for over 1,600 yards as a group, but struggle through constant eight-man fronts.
The defense can pressure the passer, with DeMarcus Ware leading the NFC in sacks again and facing fewer double teams with the stable of other pass rushers racking up sacks. However, the inside linebackers and safeties look slow and shy to tackle, so teams destroy Dallas on draws, screens, and quick outs.
The special teams are a disaster as Nick Folk's injury and Mat McBriar's over-use expose unprepared units. Sam Paulescu tests positive for performance-enhancing substances.
Dave Campo Rides Again
Cowboys fans love Dave Campo, but fear any scenario of Jerry Jones replacing Wade Phillips with Campo. If the Cowboys start 1-4 though, Jones could fire Phillips and replace him going into the bye with Campo. Campo will go 4-7 in his interim position, and once again, the Cowboys will finish 5-11 under Campo to finish the decade like they started it.
Tony Romo and Jason Garrett will be barking at each other on the sidelines as both realize without Terrell Owens the offense isn't very "Romo-friendly." Jason Witten will score 11 touchdowns as Romo leans on the only guy he trusts in the passing game, turning into a football version of Stockton and Malone.
Choice, Jones, and Barber will rush for a combined 2,000 yards and score 15 touchdowns following the behemoth offensive line plowing down the field.
DeMarcus Ware finishes with 13 sacks, with the outside linebacker rotation on the right side struggling to 12 sacks. Jay Ratliff and Bradie James have solid, but unspectacular, campaigns in the middle of the defense.
Terence Newman finally reaches elite status as a shut-down corner, but teams routinely pick on the Cowboys over-eager safeties and inexperienced corners.
The special teams units improve from one of the worst kickoff-coverage teams in 2008, but the Cowboys returners make no impact on the field due to injuries.
One Trick Tony
Tony Romo seems like he's just a 9-7 quarterback, and the Cowboys are a 9-7 kind of team in a $1.1 billion, 16-0 kind of stadium with 16-0 kind of hype and fans.
Dallas makes the playoffs, but sneaks in as the fifth seed, so no home playoff game to help pay for Tom Landry Stadium (if you type it, they will name it).
Romo scores high in fantasy football again, connecting with All-Pro Witten for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. Even Roy Williams has a respectable 800 yard, seven touchdown campaign. Couple that with another 15 touchdowns from Miles Austin, Martellus Bennett, and Patrick Crayton, and you're watching a real good passing game in Dallas.
Turf, Wind, and Fire (you get cool nicknames when you are successful and your team plays on prime time) rush for over 2,000 yards combined with 18 touchdowns and surpass Cerberus as the best three-headed entity. The offensive line looks dominant late in games.
DeMarcus Ware has 17 sacks and six forced fumbles and is second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting again. Jay Ratliff makes his second straight Pro Bowl, joined by Bradie James after another solid season in the middle.
Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky, and Gerald Sensabaugh prove to be solid acquisitions by combining for over 200 tackles.
Terence Newman reaches elite corner status, but receives enough help from Mike Jenkins, Orlando Scandrick, and Ken Hamlin to eliminate matchup problems of the past few years.
Nick Folk is healthy, but relinquishes kickoff duties to workout wonder David Buehler, who doubles as a gunner on punt coverage. Dallas is top 10 in kickoff and punt coverage.
Empire Strikes Back
Jerry Jones could easily be Emperor Palpatine in a remake of the Star Wars movies. He's definitely the villain to everyone outside of America's Team and it's fans. No one wants to see the Empire on top again.
The Cowboys win the 2010 Super Bowl a year before Tom Landry Stadium hosts the big game, leading to "Will Dallas be the first team the play in a home Super Bowl?" questions all offseason.
Critics of Tony Romo forget about Jessica, the trip to Cabo, and the fumble in Seattle, as Romo leads the NFL in Passing Efficiency and is named NFL MVP. He breaks his own team record with 41 touchdown passes and enters into the discussion of elite quarterbacks with Manning and Brady.
Roy Williams, the self-proclaimed Number One Receiver, makes good on his promises, and turns in a 1,400 yard and 14 touchdown effort. Jason Witten leads all tight ends with 900 yards and seven touchdowns and mentions by Troy Aikman as "the most complete tight end in the game."
Miles Austin catches 40 passes, averaging 21.5 yards per attempt and 1.5 big pass interference penalties a game.
DeMarcus Ware is named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year with 18 sacks, nine forced fumbles, and five interceptions. Jay Ratliff, Bradie James, and Ken Hamlin perform at a Pro Bowl-level all season, and the Cowboys lead the NFL in point differential.
Terence Newman impersonates Deion Sanders as the best cover corner alive, while Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick make the leap from serviceable rookies to good veterans. Dallas gives up two touchdowns of more than 20 yards all season, and the secondary combines for 20 takeaways.
Nick Folk and Mat McBriar make the Pro Bowl as the best kicking tandem in the NFL. The coverage units both finish in the top eight, and Joe DeCamillas becomes the league's next hot head-coaching candidate.
Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones hoist the trophy together on the field in Miami, and America's Team is back.
The Dallas Cowboys will end up in one of these tiers of teams, but put your money on 9-7. They are a One-Trick Tony.
9-7
Three of the last four years, the Dallas Cowboys have finished with a 9-7 record. While 9-7 can help fans forget the 5-11 three-peat from 2000-2002, the Stadium in Arlington Yet to be Named will suffer the same fate as the now-deceased Texas Stadium.
The Dallas Cowboys will go 9-7 again in 2009.
They will lose both to the Giants and split home games with the Eagles and Commanders. Dallas will benefit by playing two tough NFC South teams at home and the weak AFC West.
Parody will likely ruin this prediction like Jar-Jar Binks ruined Star Wars: Episode I. In light of parody, let's try to figure out what has to happen to move the Cowboys either up a tier to Super Bowl contender or down a tier to "Now on the clock..."
Let's assume that any significant development, such as Brad Johnson taking over for Tony Romo or Jay Ratliff becoming a Pro Bowler out of the seventh round, can swing wins and losses by at least two games.
Assuming that, we will try to predict how Dallas could in up in each of the four tiers: Now On The Clock, Dave Campo Rides Again, One Trick Tony, or Empire Strikes Back.
Now On The Clock
The Cowboys finish with a measly three wins, "highlighted" by thrilling victories over the Raiders on Thanksgiving and the Commanders for their only win at Tom Landry Stadium (the only acceptable name for the new stadium).
Jon Kitna takes over for an injured Tony Romo and leads the NFL in interceptions. Roy Williams leads the NFL in poorly-run routes, while Jason Witten leads all tight ends in double-coverage.
Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice rush for over 1,600 yards as a group, but struggle through constant eight-man fronts.
The defense can pressure the passer, with DeMarcus Ware leading the NFC in sacks again and facing fewer double teams with the stable of other pass rushers racking up sacks. However, the inside linebackers and safeties look slow and shy to tackle, so teams destroy Dallas on draws, screens, and quick outs.
The special teams are a disaster as Nick Folk's injury and Mat McBriar's over-use expose unprepared units. Sam Paulescu tests positive for performance-enhancing substances.
Dave Campo Rides Again
Cowboys fans love Dave Campo, but fear any scenario of Jerry Jones replacing Wade Phillips with Campo. If the Cowboys start 1-4 though, Jones could fire Phillips and replace him going into the bye with Campo. Campo will go 4-7 in his interim position, and once again, the Cowboys will finish 5-11 under Campo to finish the decade like they started it.
Tony Romo and Jason Garrett will be barking at each other on the sidelines as both realize without Terrell Owens the offense isn't very "Romo-friendly." Jason Witten will score 11 touchdowns as Romo leans on the only guy he trusts in the passing game, turning into a football version of Stockton and Malone.
Choice, Jones, and Barber will rush for a combined 2,000 yards and score 15 touchdowns following the behemoth offensive line plowing down the field.
DeMarcus Ware finishes with 13 sacks, with the outside linebacker rotation on the right side struggling to 12 sacks. Jay Ratliff and Bradie James have solid, but unspectacular, campaigns in the middle of the defense.
Terence Newman finally reaches elite status as a shut-down corner, but teams routinely pick on the Cowboys over-eager safeties and inexperienced corners.
The special teams units improve from one of the worst kickoff-coverage teams in 2008, but the Cowboys returners make no impact on the field due to injuries.
One Trick Tony
Tony Romo seems like he's just a 9-7 quarterback, and the Cowboys are a 9-7 kind of team in a $1.1 billion, 16-0 kind of stadium with 16-0 kind of hype and fans.
Dallas makes the playoffs, but sneaks in as the fifth seed, so no home playoff game to help pay for Tom Landry Stadium (if you type it, they will name it).
Romo scores high in fantasy football again, connecting with All-Pro Witten for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. Even Roy Williams has a respectable 800 yard, seven touchdown campaign. Couple that with another 15 touchdowns from Miles Austin, Martellus Bennett, and Patrick Crayton, and you're watching a real good passing game in Dallas.
Turf, Wind, and Fire (you get cool nicknames when you are successful and your team plays on prime time) rush for over 2,000 yards combined with 18 touchdowns and surpass Cerberus as the best three-headed entity. The offensive line looks dominant late in games.
DeMarcus Ware has 17 sacks and six forced fumbles and is second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting again. Jay Ratliff makes his second straight Pro Bowl, joined by Bradie James after another solid season in the middle.
Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky, and Gerald Sensabaugh prove to be solid acquisitions by combining for over 200 tackles.
Terence Newman reaches elite corner status, but receives enough help from Mike Jenkins, Orlando Scandrick, and Ken Hamlin to eliminate matchup problems of the past few years.
Nick Folk is healthy, but relinquishes kickoff duties to workout wonder David Buehler, who doubles as a gunner on punt coverage. Dallas is top 10 in kickoff and punt coverage.
Empire Strikes Back
Jerry Jones could easily be Emperor Palpatine in a remake of the Star Wars movies. He's definitely the villain to everyone outside of America's Team and it's fans. No one wants to see the Empire on top again.
The Cowboys win the 2010 Super Bowl a year before Tom Landry Stadium hosts the big game, leading to "Will Dallas be the first team the play in a home Super Bowl?" questions all offseason.
Critics of Tony Romo forget about Jessica, the trip to Cabo, and the fumble in Seattle, as Romo leads the NFL in Passing Efficiency and is named NFL MVP. He breaks his own team record with 41 touchdown passes and enters into the discussion of elite quarterbacks with Manning and Brady.
Roy Williams, the self-proclaimed Number One Receiver, makes good on his promises, and turns in a 1,400 yard and 14 touchdown effort. Jason Witten leads all tight ends with 900 yards and seven touchdowns and mentions by Troy Aikman as "the most complete tight end in the game."
Miles Austin catches 40 passes, averaging 21.5 yards per attempt and 1.5 big pass interference penalties a game.
DeMarcus Ware is named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year with 18 sacks, nine forced fumbles, and five interceptions. Jay Ratliff, Bradie James, and Ken Hamlin perform at a Pro Bowl-level all season, and the Cowboys lead the NFL in point differential.
Terence Newman impersonates Deion Sanders as the best cover corner alive, while Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick make the leap from serviceable rookies to good veterans. Dallas gives up two touchdowns of more than 20 yards all season, and the secondary combines for 20 takeaways.
Nick Folk and Mat McBriar make the Pro Bowl as the best kicking tandem in the NFL. The coverage units both finish in the top eight, and Joe DeCamillas becomes the league's next hot head-coaching candidate.
Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones hoist the trophy together on the field in Miami, and America's Team is back.
The Dallas Cowboys will end up in one of these tiers of teams, but put your money on 9-7. They are a One-Trick Tony.
