Osa Odighizuwa Free Agency

[DuncanIso]

Exactly! It should always be about value. What is Osa's production worth to the Cowboys?

I like Osa, and I would like to keep him. I think he will continue t improve the next year or two. But based on what he produces, he is not worth $20 million. I am sure the Cowboys could find the money to pay him that much, but that is not the point. Maybe for $20 million they can find another DTs who's a little better.

Although, as I pointed out, the list of free agent DTs this year is slim. I think Milton Williams and Levi Onwuzurike are the best on the list this year. I wonder what Milton Williams will cost considering he did not play much behind Carter and Jordan in Philly.

I think OSA is undervalued by fans on here.

His Pro Football Ref AV numbers are very good.

He’s gonna walk out with a ton of FA $$$

4YR 80M+

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

We pay premium dollars for mid players around here in case you haven't noticed.

How many players have we paid premium money who haven’t racked up a pro bowl or all pro? I can think of Steele and they should be regretting it.

 

[charron]

Osa at 10 = yes maybe 12 a year but he's not worth 15+. You just have to let him walk then find another guy along with potential draft picks to help fill the void.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

15m-17m is likely what he will get either here or the open market

If so, then he’s as good as gone. Don’t see Jerry spending that on him.

 

[vlad]

I could see both Osa and Dlaw going to washington, if anything to stick it to Jerry, plus obvious upside with that team. We'll get some practice squad guys or try to move someone positions or say some nonsense about mazi coming on.

 

[Creeper]

How did we go from having 19m in cap space to being 4m over?

But restructuring:
Lamb - saves $20.5m
Diggs - save 5.9m

Extensions:
Parsons - $16.1m
Bland - 3.3m

Cuts:
Hooker - saves $3.75m
Wilson - saves $5.35m
Steele - saves $4.625m

By the way, Over the Cap shows we can add $86m with simple restructures, and $121m with max restructures. So adding $58m isn't pushing things.

That's over 58m in space with only the loss of three players that aren't playing to their contract. Progress stoppers, get rid of them. Steele has been bad for 2 years, lets see what Asim Richards has.

Turpin, Bell and Juanyeh Thomas are RFA and will be brought back for cheap. Mukuamu can be brought back on a cheap deal. Hoffman and Wheat are ERFA and will also be resigned cheaply. Would look to bring Dowdle, Lawson, and maybe Gholston back. The RFA and ERFA will be about $4m in space. None of the other 4 should be more than about $3m each in space, so you are looking at a total of about $15-18m in cap space. That leaves $40m to decide on O'Diggy, Tank, Lewis, and spend on a couple of decent free agents.

THis would be what is on the roster using the above:
QB - Dak, Will Grier
RB - Dowdle, Vaughn, Luepke, Davis
WR - Lamb, Tolbert, Turpin, Brooks, Mingo, Flournoy, Moreno-Cropper, Harmon, Williams
TE - Ferguson, Schoonmaker, Stephens, Spann-Ford, Fant
OL - Smith, Guyton, Beebe, Bass, Richards, Hoffman, Thomas, Bostick, Waletzko, Anderson

DE - Parsons, Williams, Kneeland, Lawson, Gholston, Wheat, Vilain
DT - Smith, Daxon, Rogers, Brown
LB - Overshown, Liufau, Clark, Buddy Johnson, Harris, Mogenson
CB - Diggs, Bland, Carson, Butler, Pride, Booth, Hall, Barcoo
S - Mukuamu, Bell, Thomas,
K - Aubrey
P -
LS -

We have the following picks:
Rd 1 - 12
Rd 2 - 44
Rd 3 - 76
Rd 5 - 148, 168, 170, 171
Rd 6 - 187, 209
Rd 7 - 248

Biggest needs are DT, S, WR, RB, LB and OL.

First 3 picks could be WR, DT and S and would likely be early contributors and possible starters. Other picks throw at LB, CB & WR.

Look to free agency for another DT, RB, and maybe LB or OL.

Look at the improvements the Skins made in one year, it is possible. And they didn't really break the bank.

Here are some possibilities of young UFAs at positions of need.

Here are some free agent targets to consider - decent production and young

RB - Add one of these and a decent draft pick
-Ty Johnson from Buffalo, has been pretty much just as effective as Cook when given the chance, would be reasonably cheap and a good pair with Dowdle
-Javonte Williams from Denver, decent power back that needs a change of scenery.
-Cam Akers - performed well as an all around back in first year fully back from injury...should be inexpensive

WR - a true #2 is needed. Draft might be best bet.
-Dyami Brown - looks great in a Kingsbury type offense and would weaken Washington
-Josh Palmer - decent years in San Diego, good size

G - young guys that have a lot of playing time
-Ben Bredesen - Bucs
-Robert Jones - Dolphins
-Trey Smith - KC
-Teven Jenkins - Bears

DT - big question is do you resign O' Diggy. He is an above average DT, but would it be money better spent on a different DT?
-Tershawn Wharton - KC
-Javon Kinlaw - Jets
-Levi Onwuzirke - Lions
-Poona Ford - Chargers

LB - Overshown seems like a stud, but injury history. Kid from ND was decent but that is really all we have unless we resign Kendricks.
-Kyzir White - Cardinals
-Jamien Sherwood - Jets
-Ernest Jones - Sea
-Nick Bolton - Chiefs
-Tyrel Dodson - Dolphins

S - just move guys we have up and draft some new ones. Hooker and Wilson are ok but probably time to move on.
-Trevon Moehrig - Raiders
-Jeremy Chinn - COmmanders
-Julian Blackmon - Colts
-Justin Reid - KC
-Jason Pinnock - NYG
-Jevon Holland - Dolphins

Many are on teams with coaches that are of interest like Saleh, Kingsbury, etc. These players could help bring in their systems in a similar way to what Quinn did in Washington. Quinn is an example of what a good coach and staff can do...they have turned around a team. Houston has done the same, and so did the Chargers and Denver. Quick turnarounds are possible.

Right, so here is what happens if they take a $20 million save against the CAP for CeeDee in 2025. His CAP value goes from $35.4 million to $16.4 million in 2025. But his CAP increases by $6.3 million in 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029. 2029 is a voidable year so his dead money cap hit in 2029 becomes about $12 million. So his CAP hit in 2026 goes to $40 million. His CAP hit in 2027 becomes $43 million. And that assumes they do not restructure him again in 2026.

Again, this is just one player. If you restructure other players and give Micah a CAP friendly deal (CAP friendly just means his first year has a low impact because the later years have huge impact), the CAP problem in 2026 and 2027 gets worse.

I know people say, well the CAP will increase every year. And so will the floor level of player contracts. You are only pushing out the problem to the future, and for what? This team is not one year away from doing something special.

I am not saying restructuring and creating CAP space is a bad strategy. I am saying it is a bad strategy for the Cowboys. If they were a player or two from a Super Bowl, or if they had an already strong roster that might lose a player or two, then going for broke in 2025 at the expense of maybe 2027 would be worth it. The Cowboys are not in that position. They need a lot more than a player or two. For them, the strategy is to plan on ridding themselves of the horrible contract they gave Dak and plan for a retool over the next 2 years. That means accept the losses now, take those CAP hits now, and in 2027 plan on lots of CAP space and some significant new additions to the team.

My recommendation is for Dallas to go easy on the restructures, (I actually would restructure CeeDee and give Micah a new deal), but I would not shoot for $80 million or $100 million in CAP space Jerry will not use anyway.

 

[John813]

If he hits the open market, someone will overpay him, which at that point let him walk.

Funny enough some of the former 3rd round DT's Dallas has drafted are still in the league getting snaps.

Maliek Collins got a nice contract. Gallimore is still playing. I'd imagine Osa will be too.

 

[Creeper]

I would be he will turn down $20 million from the Cowboys and sign for $15 million elsewhere, like Washington.

Who wants to play for a team where the GM doesn't care about winning and will lowball their contributing players.

Washington doesn't need him and they already have $48 million in CAP space allocated to their two DTs. I would be shocked if Osa goes to Washington for $15 million.

 

[Sydla]

Osa is the best and really only decent DT we have drafted since Ratliff in 2005. He is the third best player on a defense already in need of talent.

$20m for him is far better than anything we could hope for in VFA.

Pay the man.

It would be a bad contract.

 

[Landryhat73]

I could see both Osa and Dlaw going to washington, if anything to stick it to Jerry, plus obvious upside with that team. We'll get some practice squad guys or try to move someone positions or say some nonsense about mazi coming on.

Washington is loaded at DT - not going there.

 

[Sydla]

Who would pay $20MM a year for Milton Williams? That's Osa's comp based on 2024 seasons.

 

[Landryhat73]

To have average DTs, we will have to spend this offseason. It will either be overspending in free agency or spending serious draft capital in that position. I could see a situation like this playing out - We let Osa walk and don't attempt to sign any form of a adequate replacement during free agency. Then the first two days of the draft we fill other needs like a lot of mock drafts suggest. Welcome to the worst defense in the NFL!

 

[big dog cowboy]

Osa is a good DT who would be better playing next to another good DT.

He’s not worth the top DT money he’s going to probably require. He isn’t a game changer.

But if they sign him and draft another DT, it’d be a step towards solidifying the middle of the defense.

Really good post.

 

[Sydla]

To have average DTs, we will have to spend this offseason. It will either be overspending in free agency or spending serious draft capital in that position. I could see a situation like this playing out - We let Osa walk and don't attempt to sign any form of a adequate replacement during free agency. Then the first two days of the draft we fill other needs like a lot of mock drafts suggest. Welcome to the worst defense in the NFL!

Yes, the downside is Osa leaves and we do nothing to fill the hole. But the flipside is you realize you have nothing at DT, sign Osa out of pure need and you end up with yet another bad contract in the sense you are paying a guy a ton of money and while a nice player, he's not at the level his contract would indicate.

 

[Landryhat73]

Yes, the downside is Osa leaves and we do nothing to fill the hole. But the flipside is you realize you have nothing at DT, sign Osa out of pure need and you end up with yet another bad contract in the sense you are paying a guy a ton of money and while a nice player, he's not at the level his contract would indicate.

Both options are terrible and this is all on the front office. We either overpay based on need or over draft based on need, unless by a miracle Graham falls to 12. There isn't a good solution to DT.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Who would pay $20MM a year for Milton Williams? That's Osa's comp based on 2024 seasons.

So you are hanging your hat on a single sources comparison - a dumbed down player evaluation too to boot- assume that method is best and only, and wave your hands a lot with a snotty tone.

Nice.

 

[beware_d-ware]

If he hits the open market, someone will overpay him, which at that point let him walk.

Funny enough some of the former 3rd round DT's Dallas has drafted are still in the league getting snaps.

Maliek Collins got a nice contract. Gallimore is still playing. I'd imagine Osa will be too.

Collins just keeps chugging. He gets 3 or 4 sacks every year, but he's kept it up for 9 straight years.

 

[conner01]

I like him.

But you don’t pay him 20MM+ a year. Thats insane.

Sportstrac is generally really close at predicting salaries of FA. They have him getting 25-26 mil

 

[Sydla]

Sportstrac is generally really close at predicting salaries of FA. They have him getting 25-26 mil

Is that a pay feature now for Spotrac?

$25-26MM a year for Osa is crazy. That would rank him like 8th amongst current DTs. You think he's in that class?

EDIT: That AAV would rank him 3rd amongst DTs currently under contract.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Is that a pay feature now for Spotrac?

$25-26MM a year for Osa is crazy. That would rank him like 8th amongst current DTs. You think he's in that class?

EDIT: That AAV would rank him 3rd amongst DTs currently under contract.

They are essentially a salary database. They go by that as opposed to an arbitrary class system.

Generally speaking when you are comparing salaries across years, you should go by % of cap as opposed to the raw numbers. Did a DT get a big payday last year? There are not many of them.