Our offense in the 5 playoff losses the past decade

[fivetwos]

There are so many around here who know what they are talking about to where I can’t believe that there’s debates/arguments over who is more to blame for the playoff failures.

Even so. Offense vs defense? The front office is way more to blame than either for leaving each unit short on the field. This team loses plenty of games in March.

Overestimating the talent they have, and/or how fast they can make an impact. Sounds much like every May/June around here when every draft pick is destined to be a stud. They believe what they wish to instead of what’s likely to happen.

 

[McKDaddy]

What makes this especially bad is that this team has the lion's share of draft and cap invested in the offense so they need to carry the team.

This is another stone cold reason the D can't bear equal responsibility. Largely filled with lower round picks, under performing draft picks and bargain basement acquisitions it's amazing they have done as well as they have.

Yet all those All Pro's couldn't carry their part of the load.

 

[75boyz]

It's almost a cop out, heck it is a cop out, because I've criticized so many here for it before. And that my fanhood has been reduced to hope and luck.

That same luck of Lamb falling to the Cowboys.
The same luck of Surtain and Horn being gone and "settling" for Micah.
I mean can you imagine those Quinn defenses without Micah?

The Cowboys once again need an elite QB AND elite HC if they are ever to win anything of substance.
Two so good at their jobs that they can win in spite of the Joneses.
Now for Jerry to draft or hire 2 quality people like that is most likely never happening of his own free will so I'll continue to hope for luck or by accident if you will.

What a roster building strategy on my part, huh?

 

[DandyDon52]

If you have a defense and coordinator who can adapt and put on the brakes, the game isn’t decided by a lead until there are not enough possessions left. The offense and the defense must adapt. Dan Quinn has always had trouble adapting. He does what he does, and he does it well when he has a lead.

This is true, and sadly for most teams in nfl !
Most coaches dont adapt well or at all during a game.

Being behind should mean going all pass in 2nd quarter lol.
This is where I hope shotty will just keep running when behind.
However if the run is not going good enough and you have tried different things to get it going,
then go all pass.

 

[plasticman]

Though I agree that Dak played poorly, he certainly wasn't helped by his friend, Zeke, who participated in three of the last four losses.

Against the Rams in the 2018 playoffs, Zeke had 20 carries for 47 yards. In the first 49er playoff game in the 2021 playoffs, he had 12 carries for 31 yards. Against them in 2022, he had 10 carries for 26 yards.

Even in the playoff win against the Bucs in 2022, Zeke had 13 carries for 27 yards.

In my opinion, Zeke was far more disappointing than Dak when it came to playoff performance.

Pollard did a little better in 2023, 15 carries for 56 yards.

In every one of those playoff games, Dak was forced to throw more often and in more dangerous situations due to a lack in run support.

Three of his five INTs in the last three playoff losses came on 3rd and long.

In the two close playoff losses to the 49ers, Dak had to throw 43 and 37 times respectively.

I'm not defending Dak, he didn't do anything to compensate for any other team shortcomings like the great ones do. I'm just adamantly agreeing with your primary observations. Dak requires help. This team never had his back when things weren't going good for him.

I refer, again, to Tom Brady's performance for the Bucs in the 2020 NFC championship game in which he threw INTs in three consecutive drives in the 2nd half.

Their opponent scored just 3 points off those INTs and the Bucs ended up in the Super Bowl as a result.

I am honestly hard-pressed to think of any Cowboys game in which they won despite Dak playing poorly.

 

[75boyz]

Though I agree that Dak played poorly, he certainly wasn't helped by his friend, Zeke, who participated in three of the last four losses.

Against the Rams in the 2018 playoffs, Zeke had 20 carries for 47 yards. In the first 49er playoff game in the 2021 playoffs, he had 12 carries for 31 yards. Against them in 2022, he had 10 carries for 26 yards.

Even in the playoff win against the Bucs in 2022, Zeke had 13 carries for 27 yards.

In my opinion, Zeke was far more disappointing than Dak when it came to playoff performance.

Pollard did a little better in 2023, 15 carries for 56 yards.

In every one of those playoff games, Dak was forced to throw more often and in more dangerous situations due to a lack in run support.

Three of his five INTs in the last three playoff losses came on 3rd and long.

In the two close playoff losses to the 49ers, Dak had to throw 43 and 37 times respectively.

I'm not defending Dak, he didn't do anything to compensate for any other team shortcomings like the great ones do. I'm just adamantly agreeing with your primary observations. Dak requires help. This team never had his back when things weren't going good for him.

I refer, again, to Tom Brady's performance for the Bucs in the 2020 NFC championship game in which he threw INTs in three consecutive drives in the 2nd half.

Their opponent scored just 3 points off those INTs and the Bucs ended up in the Super Bowl as a result.

I am honestly hard-pressed to think of any Cowboys game in which they won despite Dak playing poorly.

They beat the Chargers in San Diego a few years back where Dak played poorly.

 

[plasticman]

They beat the Chargers in San Diego a few years back where Dak played poorly.

Did he?

He completed over 85% of his passes while throwing one INT in the 1st quarter.

The RBs played great, Polard had a hundred-yard game. Dak may not have played great but I wouldn't call it poorly.

When I actually research I find the closest counter-example to my original claim to be the Washington game in 2021 in which Dak completed 56% of his passes and threw two INTs.

And yet, the Cowboys won after building a 24-0 leads with help from the defense on a fumble return for a TD and 4 takeaways.

 

[75boyz]

Hmm
Jm

Did he?

He completed over 85% of his passes while throwing one INT in the 1st quarter.

The RBs played great, Polard had a hundred-yard game. Dak may not have played great but I wouldn't call it poorly.

When I actually research I find the closest counter-example to my original claim to be the Washington game in 2021 in which Dak completed 56% of his passes and threw two INTs.

And yet, the Cowboys won after building a 24-0 leads with help from the defense on a fumble return for a TD and 4 takeaways.

Fair enough, I remember coming away thinking the ground game carried that win in spite of Dak but did not realize the final stat numbers.

 

[Bobhaze]

The last paragraph is what says it all.

This team loses its playoff games the previous March because they think they are better than they are personnel-wise and can skip free agency while others improve via that method.

I mean at least learn from mistakes. This DT room is arguably the worst in recent years, yet they are spending more on it. A WR rental has many excited about this season. Maybe Jerry does know what he is doing after all since that’s his primary goal.

I like the George Pickens trade but if doesn’t have a good year it could be a one year rental with not much results. I expect he will have a good season. We will see.

The offense should be better this year. It’s hard not to be better than last year’s bunch.

 

[fivetwos]

I like the George Pickens trade but if doesn’t have a good year it could be a one year rental with not much results. I expect he will have a good season. We will see.

The offense should be better this year. It’s hard not to be better than last year’s bunch.

There’s no doubt he does a lot for the offense, be it his own production or opening up opportunities for others.

My question is if it was the right move for this team at this time….in other words did they do enough elsewhere to make this a go for it type of year? There’s a ton of questions, including the health of the QB.

If he makes all the difference on offense, but your defense is still extremely susceptible to the run, you’re still going to fall short this year, then also need to replace him in the off-season just to keep status quo.

But hey, the trade got many around here excited for the season, and that’s likely what Jerry was looking to do, whereas I’m looking to open a 2-3 window to take real shots at a deep run. Different pages.

 

[CowboyFrog]

On properly functioning infrastructures of all other NFL teams I assign the positional blame on team success an even third of 33 1/3 percent for the GM, HC and QB.

Jerry changes that whole dynamic with this team.

But okay, I'll toe the forum line and just follow along in the It's all Jerry's fault bread line never acknowledging that a HC or QB even have a job here.

And I'm not even a Jerry groupie, but my gosh.

The problem is the GM's job is to change the HC and QB thats not working.... the owners job is to change the GM thats not working..yes we can blame the players and coaches but just like in every business ever, if the results are always failing at some point 100% of the blame has got to go to the man that wont change whats not working over 3 decades. If the HC/QB or hell the wtaerboy is the problem then the GM needs to replace them...if the GM isnt working well the owner needs to replace him...you want the QB changed your enemy is the GM since he is the one who wont change him....

 

[Chasing6]

In my prior thread I shared a look at how our defense fared in the 5 playoff losses of this decade. It wasn’t pretty. In short, unable to stop the run, 52% 3rd down conversion rate, 4 sacks in 5 games, and the defense gave up points in 4 of those 5 games before the offense touched the field.

Four BIG points I want to make before diving in.

1. The 5 playoff losses are not 100% on the defense nor 100% the offense. It’s mix of both. IMO anyone who plays the “all or nothing game” is refusing to look beyond their own biases. None of this is “all or nothing”.
2. Most people don’t want to read a long post like this - I understand that. But if we want a FAIR discussion, it requires more than a line or two.
3. I’m not a “Dak fan” nor a “Dak hater”. I’m a Cowboys fan. I agree that’s he’s overpaid and would rather have a better QB. But JJ is the one who who has paid him TWICE. I will criticize him when he deserves it and give credit when he earns it.
4. Keep it civil in here. You’re welcome to disagree with me or anyone. As long as you leave out the trolling, insults and name calling that often accompany these discussions.

Now let’s look at the offense’s performance, and the QB who led it. It’s not exactly beautiful either. Before I do that, here are the results of the 5 playoff losses in the last decade:

• 2016 L 34-31 vs packers in divisional round at home.
• 2018 L 30-22 vs rams in divisional round on the road.
• 2021 L 23-17 vs niners in wild card round at home.
• 2022 L 19-12 vs niners in divisional round on the road.
• 2023 L 48-32 vs packers in wild card round at home.

So let’s look at offensive performance in those 5 losses:

• Avg scoring by the offense in those 5 losses is 23 points ppg. (Defense was 31). If you take the GB loss last yr out as an outlier, we averaged 21 ppg. Not great but not bad either.
• Total yard avg is 367 but taking the garbage yards from the last GB game, it’s 331. Again, not great but not awful. (20 yds per game taken out by sack losses)
• Running game: Offense avg exactly 100 yards pg in those 5 losses. Two of them we had less than 80 yards. (The defense avg 157 yds pg)
• Passing game: Dak averaged 287 yds passing pg. But if you take the 403 yds out from the last GB game as an outlier, he avg 257 yds per game)
• 3rd down conversions total in 5 losses: 27/66 for 41% conversion rate, which is about average for NFL. (Our defense allowed a 52% conversion rate, which is terrible in playoffs)
• Sacks allowed: in the 5 losses, the OL allowed 13 sacks. (In those same 5 games, the defense only had 4 sacks)
• Turnovers: The offense had 6 turnovers, all 6 are INTs. Of those 6 INTs, 4 of them occurred in the last two playoff losses at SF and at home to GB. Dak was terrible in the first half of the GB game. Just horrible. Those two INTs in the first half sealed our fate. BUT, the defense was horrible too.

There are many other categories in offensive performance like TOP, yards per play, etc. I tried to just stick to the bigger stat numbers.

My final take on the offensive performance led by Dak is this:

• Dak’s performance in the last two losses were really bad. Four of his six INTs happened in the last two playoff losses to GB and SF.
• Dak’s performance in the first two losses - at home to GB and on the road at rams were actually pretty good. In those first two losses he had 4 TDs and 1 INT.
• In the last 3 playoff losses he had 3 TDs 5 picks. That’s awful.
• The offense has been up and down in these losses. The sack numbers weren’t good and the running game has been below average.

So on the whole IMO if I’m being objective and give a % of fault in these 5 losses, I would have to give the defense 60% and the offense (and Dak) 40%. As I said in the opening, it’s never 100% on one person.

Unless we want to say it’s mostly the GM who can’t seem to understand if you have an above average QB, he can’t carry you. You need a running game and a defense and we’ve had neither.

Super Bowl winning teams' defenses have consistently ranked high in points allowed. Over the last 23 Super Bowl winners, 16 had defenses ranked in the top 10 in points allowed, according to an NFL.com article. Specifically, the 1991 Commanders were ranked #1 on defense and #2 on offense, according to a Medium article. The 70s Steelers, with four Super Bowl wins, averaged a defense ranked 2.5, and the 90s Cowboys averaged a defensive rank of 3.3 over their three championship seasons.

To elaborate, Super Bowl champions often have strong defenses. For example, the 1972 Miami Dolphins and the 1996 Green Bay Packers both ranked #1 in both offense and defense, according to a Medium article. The 1984 San Francisco 49ers and 1985 Chicago Bears were ranked #2 on offense and #1 on defense.

 

[gtb1943]

you lose playoff games by two ways; getting beaten and losing

getting beaten by a superior team is one thing
losing to a inferior team is another

Our worse loss came to a team we were favored by over a TD at home

The blame for this starts at the top and goes all the way down to everyone but the water boys.

 

[GINeric]

In my prior thread I shared a look at how our defense fared in the 5 playoff losses of this decade. It wasn’t pretty. In short, unable to stop the run, 52% 3rd down conversion rate, 4 sacks in 5 games, and the defense gave up points in 4 of those 5 games before the offense touched the field.

Four BIG points I want to make before diving in.

1. The 5 playoff losses are not 100% on the defense nor 100% the offense. It’s mix of both. IMO anyone who plays the “all or nothing game” is refusing to look beyond their own biases. None of this is “all or nothing”.
2. Most people don’t want to read a long post like this - I understand that. But if we want a FAIR discussion, it requires more than a line or two.
3. I’m not a “Dak fan” nor a “Dak hater”. I’m a Cowboys fan. I agree that’s he’s overpaid and would rather have a better QB. But JJ is the one who who has paid him TWICE. I will criticize him when he deserves it and give credit when he earns it.
4. Keep it civil in here. You’re welcome to disagree with me or anyone. As long as you leave out the trolling, insults and name calling that often accompany these discussions.

Now let’s look at the offense’s performance, and the QB who led it. It’s not exactly beautiful either. Before I do that, here are the results of the 5 playoff losses in the last decade:

• 2016 L 34-31 vs packers in divisional round at home.
• 2018 L 30-22 vs rams in divisional round on the road.
• 2021 L 23-17 vs niners in wild card round at home.
• 2022 L 19-12 vs niners in divisional round on the road.
• 2023 L 48-32 vs packers in wild card round at home.

So let’s look at offensive performance in those 5 losses:

• Avg scoring by the offense in those 5 losses is 23 points ppg. (Defense was 31). If you take the GB loss last yr out as an outlier, we averaged 21 ppg. Not great but not bad either.
• Total yard avg is 367 but taking the garbage yards from the last GB game, it’s 331. Again, not great but not awful. (20 yds per game taken out by sack losses)
• Running game: Offense avg exactly 100 yards pg in those 5 losses. Two of them we had less than 80 yards. (The defense avg 157 yds pg)
• Passing game: Dak averaged 287 yds passing pg. But if you take the 403 yds out from the last GB game as an outlier, he avg 257 yds per game)
• 3rd down conversions total in 5 losses: 27/66 for 41% conversion rate, which is about average for NFL. (Our defense allowed a 52% conversion rate, which is terrible in playoffs)
• Sacks allowed: in the 5 losses, the OL allowed 13 sacks. (In those same 5 games, the defense only had 4 sacks)
• Turnovers: The offense had 6 turnovers, all 6 are INTs. Of those 6 INTs, 4 of them occurred in the last two playoff losses at SF and at home to GB. Dak was terrible in the first half of the GB game. Just horrible. Those two INTs in the first half sealed our fate. BUT, the defense was horrible too.

There are many other categories in offensive performance like TOP, yards per play, etc. I tried to just stick to the bigger stat numbers.

My final take on the offensive performance led by Dak is this:

• Dak’s performance in the last two losses were really bad. Four of his six INTs happened in the last two playoff losses to GB and SF.
• Dak’s performance in the first two losses - at home to GB and on the road at rams were actually pretty good. In those first two losses he had 4 TDs and 1 INT.
• In the last 3 playoff losses he had 3 TDs 5 picks. That’s awful.
• The offense has been up and down in these losses. The sack numbers weren’t good and the running game has been below average.

So on the whole IMO if I’m being objective and give a % of fault in these 5 losses, I would have to give the defense 60% and the offense (and Dak) 40%. As I said in the opening, it’s never 100% on one person.

Unless we want to say it’s mostly the GM who can’t seem to understand if you have an above average QB, he can’t carry you. You need a running game and a defense and we’ve had neither.

Great post!!! One of the best things you've typed was "I'm not a Dak hater or a Dak fan, I'm a COWBOYS fan."

Cowboys fans support all of their players. Cowboys fans celebrate with other fans after wins and during that week, not disappear until the next loss and gloat all week after a loss.

Other than that, I agree with your breakdown. Our losses in those games were a combination of the offense and defense. We certainly can't forget the coaches contributing to the losses as well by failing to get the team mentally ready to complete at a high level.

Can't forget about the high count of penalties in those games.

 

[75boyz]

The problem is the GM's job is to change the HC and QB thats not working.... the owners job is to change the GM thats not working..yes we can blame the players and coaches but just like in every business ever, if the results are always failing at some point 100% of the blame has got to go to the man that wont change whats not working over 3 decades. If the HC/QB or hell the wtaerboy is the problem then the GM needs to replace them...if the GM isnt working well the owner needs to replace him...you want the QB changed your enemy is the GM since he is the one who wont change him....

Haze responded similarly with an earlier post.
Scroll up and refer to my post #14 as my counter.

No worries.
Cowboys!

 

[GINeric]

I'm a cowboys fan. That's why I am a Dak "hater"

And that's the weirdest thing ever. Respectfully.... how does a fan cheer for a team but hate it's own players. This is the only fanbase I see doing that.

Aren't fans of a team supposed to support the players on their "favorite" team? I'm sorry, but that makes absolutely zero sense.

 

[DeaconMoss]

And that's the weirdest thing ever. Respectfully.... how does a fan cheer for a team but hate it's own players. This is the only fanbase I see doing that.

Aren't fans of a team supposed to support the players on their "favorite" team? I'm sorry, but that makes absolutely zero sense.

How can the fanbase support this?

• "In the last 3 playoff losses he had 3 TDs 5 picks. That’s awful."

 

[zrinkill]

In my prior thread I shared a look at how our defense fared in the 5 playoff losses of this decade. It wasn’t pretty. In short, unable to stop the run, 52% 3rd down conversion rate, 4 sacks in 5 games, and the defense gave up points in 4 of those 5 games before the offense touched the field.

Four BIG points I want to make before diving in.

1. The 5 playoff losses are not 100% on the defense nor 100% the offense. It’s mix of both. IMO anyone who plays the “all or nothing game” is refusing to look beyond their own biases. None of this is “all or nothing”.
2. Most people don’t want to read a long post like this - I understand that. But if we want a FAIR discussion, it requires more than a line or two.
3. I’m not a “Dak fan” nor a “Dak hater”. I’m a Cowboys fan. I agree that’s he’s overpaid and would rather have a better QB. But JJ is the one who who has paid him TWICE. I will criticize him when he deserves it and give credit when he earns it.
4. Keep it civil in here. You’re welcome to disagree with me or anyone. As long as you leave out the trolling, insults and name calling that often accompany these discussions.

Now let’s look at the offense’s performance, and the QB who led it. It’s not exactly beautiful either. Before I do that, here are the results of the 5 playoff losses in the last decade:

• 2016 L 34-31 vs packers in divisional round at home.
• 2018 L 30-22 vs rams in divisional round on the road.
• 2021 L 23-17 vs niners in wild card round at home.
• 2022 L 19-12 vs niners in divisional round on the road.
• 2023 L 48-32 vs packers in wild card round at home.

So let’s look at offensive performance in those 5 losses:

• Avg scoring by the offense in those 5 losses is 23 points ppg. (Defense was 31). If you take the GB loss last yr out as an outlier, we averaged 21 ppg. Not great but not bad either.
• Total yard avg is 367 but taking the garbage yards from the last GB game, it’s 331. Again, not great but not awful. (20 yds per game taken out by sack losses)
• Running game: Offense avg exactly 100 yards pg in those 5 losses. Two of them we had less than 80 yards. (The defense avg 157 yds pg)
• Passing game: Dak averaged 287 yds passing pg. But if you take the 403 yds out from the last GB game as an outlier, he avg 257 yds per game)
• 3rd down conversions total in 5 losses: 27/66 for 41% conversion rate, which is about average for NFL. (Our defense allowed a 52% conversion rate, which is terrible in playoffs)
• Sacks allowed: in the 5 losses, the OL allowed 13 sacks. (In those same 5 games, the defense only had 4 sacks)
• Turnovers: The offense had 6 turnovers, all 6 are INTs. Of those 6 INTs, 4 of them occurred in the last two playoff losses at SF and at home to GB. Dak was terrible in the first half of the GB game. Just horrible. Those two INTs in the first half sealed our fate. BUT, the defense was horrible too.

There are many other categories in offensive performance like TOP, yards per play, etc. I tried to just stick to the bigger stat numbers.

My final take on the offensive performance led by Dak is this:

• Dak’s performance in the last two losses were really bad. Four of his six INTs happened in the last two playoff losses to GB and SF.
• Dak’s performance in the first two losses - at home to GB and on the road at rams were actually pretty good. In those first two losses he had 4 TDs and 1 INT.
• In the last 3 playoff losses he had 3 TDs 5 picks. That’s awful.
• The offense has been up and down in these losses. The sack numbers weren’t good and the running game has been below average.

So on the whole IMO if I’m being objective and give a % of fault in these 5 losses, I would have to give the defense 60% and the offense (and Dak) 40%. As I said in the opening, it’s never 100% on one person.

Unless we want to say it’s mostly the GM who can’t seem to understand if you have an above average QB, he can’t carry you. You need a running game and a defense and we’ve had neither.

You should break the numbers down by quarter ..... late in the 3rd and the 4th quarter is when the offense seems turns it on in the playoffs.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Haze responded similarly with an earlier post.
Scroll up and refer to my post #14 as my counter.

No worries.
Cowboys!

I read it and i think it magnifies the problem of the owner/GM tie here, at some point the owner needs to eveluate and corrrect the GM not being able to get those positions correct...Romo, Prescott, JG,MM all are just symptoms of a bad GM who the owner will not part ways with...your post about being reduced to believeing in luck (not sure if it was this thread) is the right answer..no one believes this GM can build a winning team our only hope is dumb luck and that is a miserable place for a fan.

 

[Mikexike]

You should break the numbers down by quarter ..... late in the 3rd and the 4th quarter is when the offense seems turns it on in the playoffs.

I'd like a breakdown of the 1st half and 2nd half stats in those games.