In my prior thread I shared a look at how our defense fared in the 5 playoff losses of this decade. It wasn’t pretty. In short, unable to stop the run, 52% 3rd down conversion rate, 4 sacks in 5 games, and the defense gave up points in 4 of those 5 games before the offense touched the field.
Four BIG points I want to make before diving in.
- The 5 playoff losses are not 100% on the defense nor 100% the offense. It’s mix of both. IMO anyone who plays the “all or nothing game” is refusing to look beyond their own biases. None of this is “all or nothing”.
- Most people don’t want to read a long post like this - I understand that. But if we want a FAIR discussion, it requires more than a line or two.
- I’m not a “Dak fan” nor a “Dak hater”. I’m a Cowboys fan. I agree that’s he’s overpaid and would rather have a better QB. But JJ is the one who who has paid him TWICE. I will criticize him when he deserves it and give credit when he earns it.
- Keep it civil in here. You’re welcome to disagree with me or anyone. As long as you leave out the trolling, insults and name calling that often accompany these discussions.
Now let’s look at the offense’s performance, and the QB who led it. It’s not exactly beautiful either. Before I do that, here are the results of the 5 playoff losses in the last decade:
- 2016 L 34-31 vs packers in divisional round at home.
- 2018 L 30-22 vs rams in divisional round on the road.
- 2021 L 23-17 vs niners in wild card round at home.
- 2022 L 19-12 vs niners in divisional round on the road.
- 2023 L 48-32 vs packers in wild card round at home.
So let’s look at offensive performance in those 5 losses:
- Avg scoring by the offense in those 5 losses is 23 points ppg. (Defense was 31). If you take the GB loss last yr out as an outlier, we averaged 21 ppg. Not great but not bad either.
- Total yard avg is 367 but taking the garbage yards from the last GB game, it’s 331. Again, not great but not awful. (20 yds per game taken out by sack losses)
- Running game: Offense avg exactly 100 yards pg in those 5 losses. Two of them we had less than 80 yards. (The defense avg 157 yds pg)
- Passing game: Dak averaged 287 yds passing pg. But if you take the 403 yds out from the last GB game as an outlier, he avg 257 yds per game)
- 3rd down conversions total in 5 losses: 27/66 for 41% conversion rate, which is about average for NFL. (Our defense allowed a 52% conversion rate, which is terrible in playoffs)
- Sacks allowed: in the 5 losses, the OL allowed 13 sacks. (In those same 5 games, the defense only had 4 sacks)
- Turnovers: The offense had 6 turnovers, all 6 are INTs. Of those 6 INTs, 4 of them occurred in the last two playoff losses at SF and at home to GB. Dak was terrible in the first half of the GB game. Just horrible. Those two INTs in the first half sealed our fate. BUT, the defense was horrible too.
There are many other categories in offensive performance like TOP, yards per play, etc. I tried to just stick to the bigger stat numbers.
My final take on the offensive performance led by Dak is this:
- Dak’s performance in the last two losses were really bad. Four of his six INTs happened in the last two playoff losses to GB and SF.
- Dak’s performance in the first two losses - at home to GB and on the road at rams were actually pretty good. In those first two losses he had 4 TDs and 1 INT.
- In the last 3 playoff losses he had 3 TDs 5 picks. That’s awful.
- The offense has been up and down in these losses. The sack numbers weren’t good and the running game has been below average.
So on the whole IMO if I’m being objective and give a % of fault in these 5 losses, I would have to give the defense 60% and the offense (and Dak) 40%. As I said in the opening, it’s never 100% on one person.
Unless we want to say it’s mostly the GM who can’t seem to understand if you have an above average QB, he can’t carry you. You need a running game and a defense and we’ve had neither.
