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Packers' Next Opponent: The comfort of home
Dallas gets experts' nod because game is in Texas
Posted: Nov. 26, 2007
Green Bay - One crucial factor seems to separate the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys when it comes to picking a winner Thursday night at Texas Stadium.
"I'd pick Dallas just because it's there," an executive in personnel for a recent Cowboys' opponent said. "I think it's pretty evenly matched but Dallas runs the ball better. Although the last couple weeks Green Bay has run it, too."
Four of the five personnel men and assistant coaches for teams that have faced Dallas picked the Cowboys for that very reason. "I'd take Green Bay if it was at Green Bay," one of the coaches said. "It probably will be a hell of a game."
The Cowboys are favored by 6 1/2 points, a hefty spread for a matchup of teams with 10-1 records. Perhaps coach Mike McCarthy's road record isn't all that well-known beyond state borders.
Since 2006, the Packers are a remarkable 10-3 on the road. They were 5-3 last season as an underdog in each road game and are 5-0 this season on the road, including three as underdog.
However, oddsmakers also know that Brett Favre is 0-8 at Texas Stadium, and that not one of the defeats was by less than a 10-point margin. Conversely, he has quarterbacked two lopsided victories in his only starts against the Cowboys at Lambeau Field.
"I see Green Bay," another scout said. "Because Green Bay's defense will be able to stop Dallas' offense more than vice versa.
"It's at Dallas; it will be close. If Green Bay gets home-field, they will (reach the Super Bowl). But Green Bay can beat Dallas in Dallas. I don't think Dallas can beat Green Bay in Green Bay."
Another coach questioned Green Bay's run defense and gave Dallas a slight edge on the basis of its ground game.
"But Dallas isn't that great on defense and the Packers are playing great defense and have a special passing offense," one scout said.
"If I'm betting, I maybe bet Dallas. But I wouldn't bet because I'd never bet against Favre. This is New England-Indianapolis. That's what the commissioner wants, these kind of games."
OFFENSE
SCHEME
Owner Jerry Jones persuaded the Dolphins to release Jason Garrett in January so he could hire him as coordinator. It wasn't until later that Jones hired Wade Phillips as coach. Garrett, 41, incorporates elements of the vertical offense that he learned from Norv Turner in the early 1990s as Troy Aikman's backup. Garrett is rushing 45.5% of the time with a pure power-oriented run game. The Cowboys rank second in points (32.6) and yards (388.5), and are tied for 11th in turnovers (17).
QUARTERBACKS
Tony Romo (6-2, 224), 16-5 as a starter, is smart (37 on the Wonderlic intelligence test) and far more mobile than his 5.05 speed would indicate. He has a great feel for the rush, throws instinctively moving up in the pocket, has good accuracy, nice touch and adequate arm strength. He's nervy, charismatic, hard to sack and a risk-taker. He is capable of big plays and big mistakes. Brad Johnson (6-4 1/2, 238) is 39 and doesn't have much arm left.
RECEIVERS
Terrell Owens (6 feet 3 inches, 218 pounds) is big, physical and still can run. Garrett is using Owens all over the formation, making him difficult to double-team. His relationship with position coach Ray Sherman, in his first year in Dallas, is thought to be critical to his exemplary deportment. Terry Glenn, 33, would have been a terrific complement to Owens but has been out all season with a knee injury. His replacement, Patrick Crayton (6-0, 205), sat out last week (ankle) but is expected to play. He has fine hands, competitive speed and runs solid routes. Sam Hurd (6-2, 196) doesn't run well but is fearless inside. Another ex-free agent, Miles Austin (6-2, 216), is developing into a deep threat. Pro Bowl TE Jason Witten (6-5 1/2, 266) is the No. 2 option after Owens. He's fast (4.67-second speed at 40 yards), gets into his routes quickly and is physical downfield. His blocking is adequate, too. Backup Anthony Fasano (6-4, 265) is OK.
OFFENSIVE LINE
In March, the Cowboys guaranteed $18.75 million to sign free agent RG Leonard Davis (6-6, 354) from Arizona. As the replacement for Marco Rivera, Davis uses his superior strength to maul people in the run game and hold his own in protection, although quickness still troubles him. Another road-grader is Andre Gurode (6-4, 316), one of the NFL's biggest and best centers. He lacks foot quickness but has quick hands, long arms and a measure of nastiness. LG Kyle Kosier (6-4 1/2, 294), the midget of the group, is adequate in protection and often gets help in the run game. LT Flozell Adams (6-7 1/2, 340), a Pro Bowler in '03, physically dominates slower foes but can be beat outside by speed. RT Marc Colombo (6-8, 315), a bust as the Bears' first-round pick in '02, restructured his misshapen body in Dallas and turned his career around. He's no gazelle, and still qualifies as the weak link, but his days as a turnstile are over. He battles.
RUNNING BACKS
Julius Jones (5-10, 208) starts and alternates by series with Marion Barber (5-11 1/2, 221), but Barber is better and by the fourth quarter takes most of the snaps. Pound-for-pound, Barber might be the NFL's most punishing runner. He runs over tacklers, has a wicked stiff-arm and wears down defenses. Barber (4.51), a fourth-round pick in '05, isn't as fast as Jones (4.40), a second-round pick in '04. Barber also is a capable receiver. Jones might be more consistent in his reads. He has good hands, is elusive and probably is the better receiver. When starting FB Deon Anderson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 8, Oliver Hoyte (6-2 1/2, 252) took over. Hoyte, a collegiate LB, is an OK blocker but lacks Anderson's skills as a receiver.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Brian Stewart is the coordinator but Phillips makes almost all the calls. It's a 3-4 front with one-gap principles and "quarters" as base coverage. The Cowboys play a four-man line on most passing downs. Unlike Bill Parcells, Phillips is big on line stunts. The Cowboys try to sow confusion by lining up late on third down. They rank seventh in yards allowed (299.1), tied for eighth in takeaways (23) and tied for 10th in points allowed (20.1).
DEFENSIVE LINE
After losing NT Jason Ferguson (biceps) in Week 1, the Cowboys didn't miss a beat with Jay Ratliff (6-3 1/2, 298), a seventh-round pick in '05. Ratliff relies more on quickness than the bulkier Ferguson. He's strong for his size and a real threat as a pass rusher. LE Marcus Spears (6-4, 305), the 20th pick in '05, and RE Chris Canty (6-7, 299), a fourth-round pick the same year, are evenly-matched as adequate starters. Spears has very long arms and holds the point pretty well, but isn't much of a pass rusher. Canty isn't as stout as Spears but offers more rush. Former Bear DT Tank Johnson (6-2 1/2, 300), who served an eight-game NFL suspension, is starting to play back to his mid-2006 form. He had 4.69 speed in '04, effectively shoots into gaps and isn't bad at the point. Backup DE Jason Hatcher (6-6, 298) has size and 4.89 speed but is late to locate and shed.
LINEBACKERS
WOLB DeMarcus Ware (6-4, 252), the 11th pick in '05, is a candidate for NFL defensive player of the year. He's an equally effective rusher standing up in the 3-4 or from DE on passing downs. He rushes with power and speed, is athletic and aware and is dynamic against the run. SOLB Greg Ellis (6-5, 265), the eighth pick in '98, is a converted DE who plays the other end in nickel and still can get to the passer. He's much less effective in coverage. The early-down ILBs are Bradie James (6-2 1/2, 239) and Akin Ayodele (6-2, 240). James is sound in every phase. Ayodele, a former Jaguar, is aggressive but lacks speed and doesn't cover well. They're replaced on passing downs by Kevin Burnett (6-2 1/2, 227), a second-round pick in '05. He's excellent covering backs and tight ends but is rather soft against the run. Rookie OLB Anthony Spencer (6-2 1/2, 257), the 26th pick, can play up or down and is another pass-rush threat.
SECONDARY
LC Terence Newman (5-10 1/2, 181), the fifth pick in '03, is Pro Bowl-caliber. He's hard to beat and tackles well. Nickel back Anthony Henry (6-0 1/2, 205), a former Brown, still isn't 100% with a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 4. Henry, a ball-hawk with bump-and-run ability, is playing hurt and lacks top speed. Starting for Henry at RC is Jacques Reeves (5-11, 188), a seventh-round pick in '04. He has good speed but is a little stiff and gives too much cushion. The No. 4 CB, Nathan Jones (5-9, 183), is a career backup with limited tools. SS Roy Williams (6-0 1/2, 225), the eighth pick in '02, plays near the line in base and at LB in nickel. He's an intimidating hitter and solid blitzer, but in coverage his shaky speed gets exposed almost on a weekly basis. FS Ken Hamlin (6-2 1/2, 206), a former Seahawk, has good range and is physical but misses too many tackles. Patrick Watkins (6-4 1/2, 208), a so-so hitter, enters in nickel.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Mat McBriar is exceptional. Rookie K Nick Folk has made 85% of his FGs and is OK on kickoffs. The return game is ordinary, with either Crayton or Newman on punts and Austin on kickoffs. S Keith Davis leads mediocre coverage units.
Dallas gets experts' nod because game is in Texas
Posted: Nov. 26, 2007
Green Bay - One crucial factor seems to separate the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys when it comes to picking a winner Thursday night at Texas Stadium.
"I'd pick Dallas just because it's there," an executive in personnel for a recent Cowboys' opponent said. "I think it's pretty evenly matched but Dallas runs the ball better. Although the last couple weeks Green Bay has run it, too."
Four of the five personnel men and assistant coaches for teams that have faced Dallas picked the Cowboys for that very reason. "I'd take Green Bay if it was at Green Bay," one of the coaches said. "It probably will be a hell of a game."
The Cowboys are favored by 6 1/2 points, a hefty spread for a matchup of teams with 10-1 records. Perhaps coach Mike McCarthy's road record isn't all that well-known beyond state borders.
Since 2006, the Packers are a remarkable 10-3 on the road. They were 5-3 last season as an underdog in each road game and are 5-0 this season on the road, including three as underdog.
However, oddsmakers also know that Brett Favre is 0-8 at Texas Stadium, and that not one of the defeats was by less than a 10-point margin. Conversely, he has quarterbacked two lopsided victories in his only starts against the Cowboys at Lambeau Field.
"I see Green Bay," another scout said. "Because Green Bay's defense will be able to stop Dallas' offense more than vice versa.
"It's at Dallas; it will be close. If Green Bay gets home-field, they will (reach the Super Bowl). But Green Bay can beat Dallas in Dallas. I don't think Dallas can beat Green Bay in Green Bay."
Another coach questioned Green Bay's run defense and gave Dallas a slight edge on the basis of its ground game.
"But Dallas isn't that great on defense and the Packers are playing great defense and have a special passing offense," one scout said.
"If I'm betting, I maybe bet Dallas. But I wouldn't bet because I'd never bet against Favre. This is New England-Indianapolis. That's what the commissioner wants, these kind of games."
OFFENSE
SCHEME
Owner Jerry Jones persuaded the Dolphins to release Jason Garrett in January so he could hire him as coordinator. It wasn't until later that Jones hired Wade Phillips as coach. Garrett, 41, incorporates elements of the vertical offense that he learned from Norv Turner in the early 1990s as Troy Aikman's backup. Garrett is rushing 45.5% of the time with a pure power-oriented run game. The Cowboys rank second in points (32.6) and yards (388.5), and are tied for 11th in turnovers (17).
QUARTERBACKS
Tony Romo (6-2, 224), 16-5 as a starter, is smart (37 on the Wonderlic intelligence test) and far more mobile than his 5.05 speed would indicate. He has a great feel for the rush, throws instinctively moving up in the pocket, has good accuracy, nice touch and adequate arm strength. He's nervy, charismatic, hard to sack and a risk-taker. He is capable of big plays and big mistakes. Brad Johnson (6-4 1/2, 238) is 39 and doesn't have much arm left.
RECEIVERS
Terrell Owens (6 feet 3 inches, 218 pounds) is big, physical and still can run. Garrett is using Owens all over the formation, making him difficult to double-team. His relationship with position coach Ray Sherman, in his first year in Dallas, is thought to be critical to his exemplary deportment. Terry Glenn, 33, would have been a terrific complement to Owens but has been out all season with a knee injury. His replacement, Patrick Crayton (6-0, 205), sat out last week (ankle) but is expected to play. He has fine hands, competitive speed and runs solid routes. Sam Hurd (6-2, 196) doesn't run well but is fearless inside. Another ex-free agent, Miles Austin (6-2, 216), is developing into a deep threat. Pro Bowl TE Jason Witten (6-5 1/2, 266) is the No. 2 option after Owens. He's fast (4.67-second speed at 40 yards), gets into his routes quickly and is physical downfield. His blocking is adequate, too. Backup Anthony Fasano (6-4, 265) is OK.
OFFENSIVE LINE
In March, the Cowboys guaranteed $18.75 million to sign free agent RG Leonard Davis (6-6, 354) from Arizona. As the replacement for Marco Rivera, Davis uses his superior strength to maul people in the run game and hold his own in protection, although quickness still troubles him. Another road-grader is Andre Gurode (6-4, 316), one of the NFL's biggest and best centers. He lacks foot quickness but has quick hands, long arms and a measure of nastiness. LG Kyle Kosier (6-4 1/2, 294), the midget of the group, is adequate in protection and often gets help in the run game. LT Flozell Adams (6-7 1/2, 340), a Pro Bowler in '03, physically dominates slower foes but can be beat outside by speed. RT Marc Colombo (6-8, 315), a bust as the Bears' first-round pick in '02, restructured his misshapen body in Dallas and turned his career around. He's no gazelle, and still qualifies as the weak link, but his days as a turnstile are over. He battles.
RUNNING BACKS
Julius Jones (5-10, 208) starts and alternates by series with Marion Barber (5-11 1/2, 221), but Barber is better and by the fourth quarter takes most of the snaps. Pound-for-pound, Barber might be the NFL's most punishing runner. He runs over tacklers, has a wicked stiff-arm and wears down defenses. Barber (4.51), a fourth-round pick in '05, isn't as fast as Jones (4.40), a second-round pick in '04. Barber also is a capable receiver. Jones might be more consistent in his reads. He has good hands, is elusive and probably is the better receiver. When starting FB Deon Anderson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 8, Oliver Hoyte (6-2 1/2, 252) took over. Hoyte, a collegiate LB, is an OK blocker but lacks Anderson's skills as a receiver.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Brian Stewart is the coordinator but Phillips makes almost all the calls. It's a 3-4 front with one-gap principles and "quarters" as base coverage. The Cowboys play a four-man line on most passing downs. Unlike Bill Parcells, Phillips is big on line stunts. The Cowboys try to sow confusion by lining up late on third down. They rank seventh in yards allowed (299.1), tied for eighth in takeaways (23) and tied for 10th in points allowed (20.1).
DEFENSIVE LINE
After losing NT Jason Ferguson (biceps) in Week 1, the Cowboys didn't miss a beat with Jay Ratliff (6-3 1/2, 298), a seventh-round pick in '05. Ratliff relies more on quickness than the bulkier Ferguson. He's strong for his size and a real threat as a pass rusher. LE Marcus Spears (6-4, 305), the 20th pick in '05, and RE Chris Canty (6-7, 299), a fourth-round pick the same year, are evenly-matched as adequate starters. Spears has very long arms and holds the point pretty well, but isn't much of a pass rusher. Canty isn't as stout as Spears but offers more rush. Former Bear DT Tank Johnson (6-2 1/2, 300), who served an eight-game NFL suspension, is starting to play back to his mid-2006 form. He had 4.69 speed in '04, effectively shoots into gaps and isn't bad at the point. Backup DE Jason Hatcher (6-6, 298) has size and 4.89 speed but is late to locate and shed.
LINEBACKERS
WOLB DeMarcus Ware (6-4, 252), the 11th pick in '05, is a candidate for NFL defensive player of the year. He's an equally effective rusher standing up in the 3-4 or from DE on passing downs. He rushes with power and speed, is athletic and aware and is dynamic against the run. SOLB Greg Ellis (6-5, 265), the eighth pick in '98, is a converted DE who plays the other end in nickel and still can get to the passer. He's much less effective in coverage. The early-down ILBs are Bradie James (6-2 1/2, 239) and Akin Ayodele (6-2, 240). James is sound in every phase. Ayodele, a former Jaguar, is aggressive but lacks speed and doesn't cover well. They're replaced on passing downs by Kevin Burnett (6-2 1/2, 227), a second-round pick in '05. He's excellent covering backs and tight ends but is rather soft against the run. Rookie OLB Anthony Spencer (6-2 1/2, 257), the 26th pick, can play up or down and is another pass-rush threat.
SECONDARY
LC Terence Newman (5-10 1/2, 181), the fifth pick in '03, is Pro Bowl-caliber. He's hard to beat and tackles well. Nickel back Anthony Henry (6-0 1/2, 205), a former Brown, still isn't 100% with a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 4. Henry, a ball-hawk with bump-and-run ability, is playing hurt and lacks top speed. Starting for Henry at RC is Jacques Reeves (5-11, 188), a seventh-round pick in '04. He has good speed but is a little stiff and gives too much cushion. The No. 4 CB, Nathan Jones (5-9, 183), is a career backup with limited tools. SS Roy Williams (6-0 1/2, 225), the eighth pick in '02, plays near the line in base and at LB in nickel. He's an intimidating hitter and solid blitzer, but in coverage his shaky speed gets exposed almost on a weekly basis. FS Ken Hamlin (6-2 1/2, 206), a former Seahawk, has good range and is physical but misses too many tackles. Patrick Watkins (6-4 1/2, 208), a so-so hitter, enters in nickel.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Mat McBriar is exceptional. Rookie K Nick Folk has made 85% of his FGs and is OK on kickoffs. The return game is ordinary, with either Crayton or Newman on punts and Austin on kickoffs. S Keith Davis leads mediocre coverage units.
