Pat Kirwan's Power and Explosion Formula

[InmanRoshi]

Kirwan came out wiht an article last year ( http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/8322692 ) where he ranked players using a strength and explosion formula where he added up Bench Press + Broad Jump + Vertical Jump. His "magic number" is 70 to signify elite explosion and power.

Last year's biggest totals came from Luis Castillo (77), Shawne Merriman (75) and Demarcus Ware (75). Kevin Burnett also posted an impressive score of 67.

I figured out this year's DE's and LB's. Bobby Carpenter's numbers are not available. Mario Williams needs further testing to conclusively determine if he's a human being.

Mario Williams 85.5
Ernie Simms 76.42
Kai Parham 74.75
AJ Hawk 73.58
Kamerion Wimbley 73.25
Manny Lawson 72.83
Demarco Ryan 72.75
Mark Anderson 72.58
Thomas Howard 70.33
Darryl Tapp 69.08
Tim Dobbins 67.66
Stanley McClover 67.5
Chris Gocong 66.75
D'Qwell Jackson 65.67
Parys Haralson 65.58
Abdul Hodge 65
Chad Greenway 59.25
Mathias Kiwanuka 59

Vernon Davis also posted an 85. University of Miami Ohio LB Terna Nande posted a 90, which might be one of the top scores of all time if I went back and did the research, but he's generally thought of as a Day 2 prospect.

 

[burmafrd]

Carpender at his pro day: 20 bench; 34 1/2" vertical; 10'4" broad jump; so that is what- 65?

 

[InmanRoshi]

At those numbers he's 64.83

Another freak is Winston Justice - 86.16. And offensive linemen typically don't score well in the jumps.

 

[burmafrd]

So actually he is not all that explosive.

 

[InmanRoshi]

Depends on how much you think his ankle has effected him.

And I'm looking up some of the numbers of the players the Cowboys are privately working out, and its pretty clear Parcells and Kirwan share this model from their Jet days. Almost all of the players the Cowboys are working out are at the top or near it for their positions in this formula.

Stanford DB TJ Rushing (70) has probably the best score out of all defensive backs. Rod Wright - 72. Jon Alston - 80.

 

[burmafrd]

Problem with this formula is that the bench press is somewhat of a misleading indicator- there are a lot of people who are really not all that strong but can really crank it out on a bench. They might have fairly week upper body but strong arms.

 

[InmanRoshi]

Problem with this formula is that the bench press is somewhat of a misleading indicator- there are a lot of people who are really not all that strong but can really crank it out on a bench. They might have fairly week upper body but strong arms.

There are lots of players who did well on the bench press who don't come close to 70. With vertical jump and broad jump and factored also in, the formula combines upper and lower body strength.

Of course you have to be able to tell the difference between workout strenght and football strength, but if the people testing out over 70 tend to be good football players in the NFL then its probably a sound model, albeit crude. I know San Diego and Dallas think they have 3 future stars in Castillo, Merriman and Ware. Merriman may get all the notoriety with the DROY award, but Schotty is already calling Castillo the best defensive lineman he's ever coached in his entire career. Kirwan said in his article that all he had to do is give coaches a list of former players who graded out over 70, and it got their attention.

 

[austintodallas]

Very interesting stuff! Thanks for the work!

 

[burmafrd]

Actually broad and vertical jump show very little about the upper body.
And the bench is mostly arm strength. I am trying to think of something that would indicate upper body strength that does not take into account arm strength.

 

[InmanRoshi]

I disagree that the bench press is not mostly about arm strength. Pecs, delts and lats are responsible for for extending the arms. Do your maximum set on a bench press, and notice where you're sore the following day.

Considering that football is a sport of pushing, holding, pulling and hand fighting, any upper body measurement that doesn't account for arms would be fairly useless.

 

[burmafrd]

I mean something that would better measure upper body strength as a whole.
Some kind of test that would require twisting and pulling, etc. Look at some plays and see the contortions players get into- some kind of test to measure that kind of sbility is needed.

 

[ddh33]

Kai Parham is still on my most underrated list. It's like everyone forgot about him after his rough forty time, but the guy can play. I would not be surprised if Bill really wants him.

 

[dwmyers]

I think the point behind having a mixed indicator is that it combines disparate measurements into an aggregate whole. You see the same thing in baseball sabermetrics all the time. A simple example is the on base percentage. It's a better measure of offense than just batting average, even though a walk isn't a hit. Others are happier with OPS, which is on base percentage plus slugging percentage.

Kirwan's number is that kind of measurement. Picking about the edges at it doesn't eliminate its potential usefulness. It's probably more robust, in the statistical sense, than its 3 contributers.

David.

 

[Smith22]

Thanks for the link Roshi. Very interesting.

 

[Bizwah]

Interesting stuff.

I really like Wimbley and Anderson. Both would be great fits for us.

Anderson especially has my interest. DBrick said that he had the best pass rush moves of any DE he went up against at the SR Bowl.

 

[VACowboy]

Wimbley is looking better and better to me.

 

[Smith22]

University of Miami Ohio LB Terna Nande posted a 90, which might be one of the top scores of all time if I went back and did the research, but he's generally thought of as a Day 2 prospect.

Reports on him sound like he will be a special teams demon, with a chance to eventually earn a starting spot. Sounds like someone to keep an eye on if he falls far enough on day 2.

 

[MONT17]

doing maxum reps of pulling and twisting... thats fine for HS but this is BIG BUSINESS... NO WAY should u want a TOP prospect Pulling and twisting max reps of anything!!!

Bench is a safe lift... thats why u dont see them SQUATING or Power cleans... and gawd aweful Deadlift! dangerous lifts when testing maxiums....


Bench is the best way to measure upper body strenght the arms (Biceps) have very little to do with a press...


I will say guys with shorter arms have an advantage because the range of motion is short! Now if that skews #s then so be it there is nothing u can do!


If u cant Bench u have a weak UPPER BODY... simple!

 

[burmafrd]

I have seen those that do poorly on the Bench and they are quite strong in the upper body; I have also seen those that do well on the bench that look like skeletons in the upper body. Nothing is absolute.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

Kirwan came out wiht an article last year ( http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/8322692 ) where he ranked players using a strength and explosion formula where he added up Bench Press + Broad Jump + Vertical Jump. His "magic number" is 70 to signify elite explosion and power.

Last year's biggest totals came from Luis Castillo (77), Shawne Merriman (75) and Demarcus Ware (75). Kevin Burnett also posted an impressive score of 67.

I figured out this year's DE's and LB's. Bobby Carpenter's numbers are not available. Mario Williams needs further testing to conclusively determine if he's a human being.

Mario Williams 85.5
Ernie Simms 76.42
Kai Parham 74.75
AJ Hawk 73.58
Kamerion Wimbley 73.25
Manny Lawson 72.83
Demarco Ryan 72.75
Mark Anderson 72.58
Thomas Howard 70.33
Darryl Tapp 69.08
Tim Dobbins 67.66
Stanley McClover 67.5
Chris Gocong 66.75
D'Qwell Jackson 65.67
Parys Haralson 65.58
Abdul Hodge 65
Chad Greenway 59.25
Mathias Kiwanuka 59

Vernon Davis also posted an 85. University of Miami Ohio LB Terna Nande posted a 90, which might be one of the top scores of all time if I went back and did the research, but he's generally thought of as a Day 2 prospect.

Mike Kudla had 45 reps, a 37" vertical and 9'6" broad jump scoring a 91.5 using this formula and was said to be disappointed in all his numbers especially the bench.