PAT strategy

[Craig]

Now that they are further out, does offside just result in 5 yards? Or does it apply on the kick. Seems like it could be a nice opportunity to cheat a bit on XPs.

 

[Deep_South]

I think the real decision is going to come when the other team scores first and makes the 2 point conversion. What do we do when we score while down by 8 will be an interesting decision.

 

[erod]

Coughlin was right, that they should have just moved the LOS for conversions to the 1-yard line.

I REALLY hate that idea.

You want to see quarterback sneaks all year?

Roethlisberger and Newton would be automatic from there.

 

[erod]

Exactly a 33 yd FG is worth 3 pts. Now it has to made after a TD for 1 pt.

Games in bad weather will be decided by this and fans will be furious. Wait til someone gets a holding penalty.

I would rather have TDs worth 7 pts unless they go for 2.

What about an unsportsmanlike penalty for illegal celebration? Now, it's a 47-yard extra point.

 

[LandryFan]

I'd argue that if the expected points are exactly the same, it's better strategy to go for two because additional game reps should in theory improve your success rate.

I know a lot of teams use metrics/statistics on which to base some decisions, but I don't get the feeling they will delve too deeply into the extra point stat probabilities. Most kickers are going to be automatic enough from 33 yds that they won't likely stray from that unless they have to.

 

[erod]

I know a lot of teams use metrics/statistics on which to base some decisions, but I don't get the feeling they will delve too deeply into the extra point stat probabilities. Most kickers are going to be automatic enough from 33 yds that they won't likely stray from that unless they have to.

Indoor, yes. Early in the season, yes. In the playoffs in New England, Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh......not so much.

 

[Nightman]

What about an unsportsmanlike penalty for illegal celebration? Now, it's a 47-yard extra point.

The unintended consequences will be huge with this rule.

Maybe that's exactly what they want.

 

[erod]

The unintended consequences will be huge with this rule.

Maybe that's exactly what they want.

Maybe. A subtle way to control the end zone celebrations. This will be common after defensive and special teams touchdowns.

I want Witten off the field goal team asap. Now, because the defense can score, they're going to be coming hard. And players will tell you that there's no more dangerous position than field goal protection.

What's the risk of wiping out a kicker now? Another shot at the extra point? Big deal, it's only one point. Take that risk and try to block it for the 2-point return. Kickers are going to get hurt.

I also hate that now the game is going to be decided by 150-pound kickers more than real football players. This was already too much the case, and now it will be moreso.

I just wished they narrowed the field goal posts by a foot each side, and left the rest alone.

 

[LandryFan]

Indoor, yes. Early in the season, yes. In the playoffs in New England, Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh......not so much.

Valid point.

 

[percyhoward]

I REALLY hate that idea.

You want to see quarterback sneaks all year?

Roethlisberger and Newton would be automatic from there.

Carolina and the Steelers had a combined 14 plays from the 1-yard line last year, and Roethlisberger and Newton combined for 0 rushes.

The Cowboys had 6 plays from the 1-yard line. All were Murray runs. All were touchdowns.

 

[links18]

I think the real decision is going to come when the other team scores first and makes the 2 point conversion. What do we do when we score while down by 8 will be an interesting decision.

Yes, a team's strategy on PATs will likely be influenced by the other team's strategy, which puts a premium on scoring the first TD of the game in order to dictate the terms.

 

[USMarineVet]

I don't know why teams haven't gone for the 2 point conversion more in the past. Essentially, you only have to make it 1 out of 2 times to get your 2 points. Make it twice and you've got 4. There's a 75% chance you will come out with at least 2 points for every two touchdowns you score in a game and try for the 2-point conversion both times.

Four scenarios:

Make it & Make it. (4 points)
Make it and Miss it. (2 points)
Miss it and Make it. (2 points)
Miss it and Miss it. (0 points)

I'd tend towards kicking the extra point in the 4th quarter if that point made it a 3 or 7 point game though.

 

[Plankton]

This is an idiotic rule. You kick a 33 yard conversion and get one point. Yet, you can convert a kick on fourth down between 19 and 33 yards, and it's worth three points. Three points for a shorter kick that is only worth one following a touchdown.

And, the league that is all about player safety is making the conversion play more likely to end up with injuries. You can't make this stuff up.

 

[Nightman]

This is an idiotic rule. You kick a 33 yard conversion and get one point. Yet, you can convert a kick on fourth down between 19 and 33 yards, and it's worth three points. Three points for a shorter kick that is only worth one following a touchdown.

And, the league that is all about player safety is making the conversion play more likely to end up with injuries. You can't make this stuff up.

If you block the kick and return it you get twice the points. So why not sell out and go for the blocked kick at all costs. Worst case scenario is a penalty that moves the PAT back to the 2yd line. Running into the kicker can become a strategy early in the game. All you are risking is an easier PAT try.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

That does not compute........guess you could just be joking though....

Where does a 48% chance gets you better odds than a 93% chance of scoring.
You do not get a double advantage on a % just because it's 2 points vs. 1 point.

It's the risk vs. reward issue. Give me the more assured 1 point every time. Until you need the 2 points.

Getting 2 yards in goal line situation is very hard, even with our OL. Teams practice this situation all the time. Even bad teams can stop this, probably 50% of the time.

It's called expected value. It's a common idea in statistics and probability theory. The expected value (or outcome) of a situation is the reward times the likelihood of it happening. It was a valid argument.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I think this could add some possible excitement. Let's say the expected value is the same for kicking it or going for 2, and let's say a team is down 7 and scores a touchdown to make it a 1-point game. In the entirety of NFL history, that team would kick it and tie the game (and go into OT if it's the end of the game). But imagine some teams taking their chances and going for the win. It could be exciting.

 

[jazzcat22]

It's called expected value. It's a common idea in statistics and probability theory. The expected value (or outcome) of a situation is the reward times the likelihood of it happening. It was a valid argument.

It may be a valid argument in statistics. Anything can be swayed to one's thinking in statistics. Common football sense says go for the higher % of scoring points until 2 points are needed.
I expect my team to score, not play an expected statistic of a probability theory. Higher % of scoring rather 1 or 2 points is the objective.