Patriots in the Playoffs---Who's got the best shot?

Mavs · Dec 30, 2007

Who do y'all think has the best chance of going to New England and beating them? I think Jacksonville, Indi, and even San Diego all have chances. Indi has proven it, plus they get Marvin Harrison back. Granted, they've lost Dwight Freeney which is a huge loss....
The Jaguars have tremendous balance on offense and are clearly the most physical team in the league. I'd love to see them take on New England and overpower them.
San Diego's hot right now as well and have a really nice running game which could spell doom for the Patsies. Not to mention their ball-hawking defense.

Pittsburgh? Not so much...they don't seem like they match up very well at all. Polamalu did miss that game...still.

One thing's for sure:
The Patriots will have to beat some good teams to get to the Super Bowl to play us.

:

Nors · Dec 30, 2007

Dallas Cowboys
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sand Diego Chargers

In that order

Rampage · Dec 30, 2007

Nors;1865115 said:
Dallas Cowboys
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sand Diego Chargers

In that order

so the colts have no shot? you've spoken like the true pats fan you are

Nors · Dec 30, 2007

Rampage;1865223 said:
so the colts have no shot? you've spoken like the true pats fan you are

FYI - Indy lost Freeney for season and their WR's and TE's are badly dinged.

Dallas, Jax and SD are far more likely to beat the Pats.

Note who I had top of the list. :yourock:

dwmyers · Dec 30, 2007

Well, if my stats are correct:

Code:

Rank  Team    Median   W   L   T 
-------------------------------------
1     NE      21.0    16   0   0
2     IND     18.0    13   2   0
3     DAL     10.0    13   3   0
4     GB       9.0    13   3   0
5     SD      12.0    11   5   0
6     JAC      7.0    11   5   0
7     PIT      7.0    10   6   0
8     CLE      4.5    10   6   0
9     SEA      4.5    10   6   0
10    NYG      4.0    10   6   0
11    TEN      3.0     9   6   0
12    TB       3.5     9   7   0
13    WAS      2.5     9   7   0

The team with the best shot is Indianapolis, followed by Dallas and Green Bay. The margin between Dallas and Green Bay has gotten razor thin, by my calculations.

Median is median point spread.

David.

thekavorka · Dec 30, 2007

indy
jags
chargers
Dallas
GB

(in that order)

I don't really like to use stats that take into account the entire season (like median point spread) unless the stats are weighted to give more strength to the games at the end of the season. The first game of the season and the 14th game of the season should not be given the same weight.

I think the Colts/Jags/Chargers are playing the best football right now.

I'd really love to see the Jags play NE. They play relatively mistake free football and have an awesome run game.

Nors · Dec 30, 2007

Indy has lost Freeney and dinged at WR/TE

Factor that into the median and add in the Indi record in Foxboro in January.

dwmyers · Dec 30, 2007

thekavorka;1868351 said:
indy
jags
chargers
Dallas
GB

(in that order)

I don't really like to use stats that take into account the entire season (like median point spread) unless the stats are weighted to give more strength to the games at the end of the season.

Just for yucks I'll post the last 8 games of 2006 using my system:

Code:

Rank  Team    Median   W   L   T 
-------------------------------------
1     SD       7.5     8   0   0
2     BAL     11.0     7   1   0
3     NYJ      8.0     6   2   0
4     CHI      7.5     6   2   0
5     PIT      6.5     6   2   0
6     NE       5.5     6   2   0
7     PHI      5.0     6   2   0
8     TEN      3.0     6   2   0
9     DAL      5.0     5   3   0
10    GB       4.0     5   3   0
11    NO       6.0     4   4   0
12    CIN      2.5     4   4   0
13    CAR      2.0     4   4   0
14    BUF      1.0     4   4   0
15    STL      0.5     4   4   0
16    ARI      0.5     4   4   0
17    KC       0.5     4   4   0
18    SF       0.0     4   4   0
19    HOU      0.0     4   4   0
20    MIA      0.0     4   4   0
21    SEA     -0.5     4   4   0
22    IND     -1.0     4   4   0

Indianapolis, Super Bowl winner, ranked 22nd. New Orleans, ranked underneath Dallas. No, using parts of season just does not inspire confidence in the numbers.

By contrast, using the whole season:

Code:

Rank  Team    Median   W   L   T 
-------------------------------------
1     SD       8.0    14   2   0
2     CHI     10.0    13   3   0
3     BAL     10.0    13   3   0
4     NE       7.0    12   4   0
5     IND      4.0    12   4   0
6     PHI      5.0    10   6   0
7     NO       4.0    10   6   0
8     NYJ      3.0    10   6   0
9     DAL      5.0     9   7   0
10    KC       3.0     9   7   0
11    SEA      2.0     9   7   0
12    DEN      2.0     9   7   0
13    JAC      2.0     8   8   0
14    CIN      1.0     8   8   0
15    NYG      0.5     8   8   0

Using the whole season, Indianapolis ranks 5th. There isn't much difference between Philadelphia and New Orleans, and a New Orleans/Chicago NFC Championship isn't that much of a reach. Chicago as the NFC Championship is predicted, but Indianapolis still had to upset 3 consecutive teams to get to and win the Super Bowl. I'm pretty sure their injuries (Indy got Bob Sanders back in time for the playoff run) made a difference.

~~~

One of the biggest problems in football is a small sample size (just 16 games). You don't know if games are a trend or just an anomaly simply from scores.

It's also the same trap PECOTA (Football Outsider's season prediction method) fell into. Dallas was supposed to go belly up this year, and not win a damn thing, because PECOTA weighted games at the end of the 2006 season more than Dallas's whole season in 2006.

David.

dwmyers · Dec 30, 2007

Nors;1868424 said:
Indy has lost Freeney and dinged at WR/TE

Factor that into the median and add in the Indi record in Foxboro in January.

I'm just going to take the system at face value and see how it turns out. If you want to look at how well it has done, go to the second link in my signature.

Indy just lost a ton of points in median.. I guess it was on an edge and the Tenn loss pushed it over.

NFC wild cards: Predicting Seattle over Washington, and NY Giants over Tampa Bay. System suggests a San Diego win, and that Jacksonville has the equivalent of a two point (median) edge over Pittsburgh, by virtue of its 1 game lead in record.

Code:

Rank  Team    Median   W   L   T 
-------------------------------------
1     NE      21.0    16   0   0
2     IND     12.5    13   3   0
3     DAL     10.0    13   3   0
4     GB       9.0    13   3   0
5     SD      12.0    11   5   0
6     JAC      7.0    11   5   0
7     PIT      7.0    10   6   0
8     CLE      4.5    10   6   0
9     SEA      4.5    10   6   0
10    NYG      4.0    10   6   0
11    TEN      3.5    10   6   0
12    TB       3.5     9   7   0
13    WAS      2.5     9   7   0

Mavs · Dec 31, 2007

thekavorka;1868351 said:
indy
jags
chargers
Dallas
GB

(in that order)

I don't really like to use stats that take into account the entire season (like median point spread) unless the stats are weighted to give more strength to the games at the end of the season. The first game of the season and the 14th game of the season should not be given the same weight.

I think the Colts/Jags/Chargers are playing the best football right now.

I'd really love to see the Jags play NE. They play relatively mistake free football and have an awesome run game.

I've come to see it pretty similarily. Cowboys are totally flustering down the stretch again while Green Bay has been inconsistent as well lately. Jags, Colts, and Chargers are the hottest going into the playoffs...and though I hate to say it, we'll be seeing the Commanders again in 2 weeks.

Doomsday101 · Dec 31, 2007

I think the only stumbling block for the Pats will be the Colts. Indy I don't feel is intimidated by the Pats in large part because they have faced each other in big games and Indy has held their own. No doubt though the Pats will be the favor no matter who they play

Mavs · Jan 1, 2008

Doomsday101;1870150 said:
I think the only stumbling block for the Pats will be the Colts. Indy I don't feel is intimidated by the Pats in large part because they have faced each other in big games and Indy has held their own. No doubt though the Pats will be the favor no matter who they play

I cannot wait to experience the joy when they do finally lose....hopefully... :/

theebs · Jan 1, 2008

Just Indy.

Nobody else.

burmafrd · Jan 1, 2008

If the weather is not good the Jags have a shot. Colts the best. Chargers have the talent but not the coaching. BB will absolutely devour Norv.

thekavorka · Jan 1, 2008

dwmyers;1868700 said:
Just for yucks I'll post the last 8 games of 2006 using my system:

Code:

Rank Team Median W L T ------------------------------------- 1 SD 7.5 8 0 0 2 BAL 11.0 7 1 0 3 NYJ 8.0 6 2 0 4 CHI 7.5 6 2 0 5 PIT 6.5 6 2 0 6 NE 5.5 6 2 0 7 PHI 5.0 6 2 0 8 TEN 3.0 6 2 0 9 DAL 5.0 5 3 0 10 GB 4.0 5 3 0 11 NO 6.0 4 4 0 12 CIN 2.5 4 4 0 13 CAR 2.0 4 4 0 14 BUF 1.0 4 4 0 15 STL 0.5 4 4 0 16 ARI 0.5 4 4 0 17 KC 0.5 4 4 0 18 SF 0.0 4 4 0 19 HOU 0.0 4 4 0 20 MIA 0.0 4 4 0 21 SEA -0.5 4 4 0 22 IND -1.0 4 4 0

Indianapolis, Super Bowl winner, ranked 22nd. New Orleans, ranked underneath Dallas. No, using parts of season just does not inspire confidence in the numbers.

By contrast, using the whole season:

Code:

Rank Team Median W L T ------------------------------------- 1 SD 8.0 14 2 0 2 CHI 10.0 13 3 0 3 BAL 10.0 13 3 0 4 NE 7.0 12 4 0 5 IND 4.0 12 4 0 6 PHI 5.0 10 6 0 7 NO 4.0 10 6 0 8 NYJ 3.0 10 6 0 9 DAL 5.0 9 7 0 10 KC 3.0 9 7 0 11 SEA 2.0 9 7 0 12 DEN 2.0 9 7 0 13 JAC 2.0 8 8 0 14 CIN 1.0 8 8 0 15 NYG 0.5 8 8 0

Using the whole season, Indianapolis ranks 5th. There isn't much difference between Philadelphia and New Orleans, and a New Orleans/Chicago NFC Championship isn't that much of a reach. Chicago as the NFC Championship is predicted, but Indianapolis still had to upset 3 consecutive teams to get to and win the Super Bowl. I'm pretty sure their injuries (Indy got Bob Sanders back in time for the playoff run) made a difference.

~~~

One of the biggest problems in football is a small sample size (just 16 games). You don't know if games are a trend or just an anomaly simply from scores.

It's also the same trap PECOTA (Football Outsider's season prediction method) fell into. Dallas was supposed to go belly up this year, and not win a damn thing, because PECOTA weighted games at the end of the 2006 season more than Dallas's whole season in 2006.

David.

Then don't use median point spread unless you take in to other factors like injuries. And I didn't say to ignore a part of the season. I merely suggested weighting them differently.

Also the problem with PECOTA is that it weights games at the end of the 2006-2007 in order to predict 2007-2008.

It makes a lot more sense to weight games at the end of the regular season to predict the playoffs.

Patriots in the Playoffs---Who's got the best shot?

Mavs

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Believe!!!!

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