cowboyjoe
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Paul G profiles 5 players who could be "over-drafted."
Pigskin Paul’s Place
DRAFT DOPE
http://www.pigskinpaul.com/Pigskin_Pauls_Place/Home/Entries/2010/4/1_DRAFT_DOPE.html
Let’s switch gears a bit and talk about a common phenomenon that takes place during any NFL DRAFT; over-Drafting. This is basically the occurrence of players showing enough between the end of the college football season and the DRAFT to convince Personnel People that they are better, and have more Pro potential than game film on them would indicate. There is no specific formula to the phenomenon and it can happen anywhere from Round 1 until the final Pick of the process. Here are five players who I think may be only weeks away from earning some serious cash, but never living up to their presently perceived value once in the League.
JARRETT BROWN/QB/WEST VIRGINIA/6’3/225 BROWN didn’t see the field very often until his Senior season because of PAT WHITE’s presence in Morgantown for the previous 4 years. So the first thing you hear people say when he does something poorly is that he just lacks reps and experience. And then there is that cannon arm that he has, he can throw it as far, and effortlessly as anyone else coming out this year at the QB position, and more so than most. He is also athletic and can roll and run his way to yardage, or just buying time for receivers to come open. And yes I know that he completed just over 63% of his throws this year. But for me think the telling stat is his 11 TD passes, to 9 INT. I don’t think he sees more than half the field on any given play. Some of that can be improved with coaching and experience, but if this guy is Drafted any earlier than Round 4 someone is desperate, and/or fooling themselves.
RILEY COOPER/WR/FLORIDA/6’3/222 TIM TEBOW’s favorite receiver, and roommate is getting a lot more love by some than I can rationalize from what I have seen of the guy. He’s not a bad receiver, and has a chance to be a No.3 or more likely, No.4 wideout in the NFL, if he doesn’t change his mind and head back to baseball after all. he was far from the highest energy guy during practices in Mobile and is certainly not possessing of the speed or quickness to gain lots of separation against NFL Corners. He snared 51 balls from his Roomie, but over 14 games thats a whopping average of 3 catches per game. And before you start blaming TEBOW’s throwing, let me tell in the 8 Gator games I watched he easily dropped two throws per game. I’m not sure he does a good job of locating the ball in the air and catching it over his shoulder. He’s a Day Three Pick for me, but I have sen him slotted well into the TOP 100 Prospects on way too many lists, by guys whose opinion I respect.
DORIN DICKERSON/TE/PITT/6’2/225 The first thing that should get your attention is a guy listed at 6’2/226 being a serious NFL TE prospect. And he pretty much proved in Mobile that he is not quick or fast enough to be a WR in the Pro game. he hit the radar by finally seeing the field as a starter for the Panthers as a senior, but folks he only caught 49 balls. He is going to be no more than an H-B/slot receiver in the NFL. And by the way he is not even quite a full 6’2”. He doesn’t fit anywhere as a full time performer. In the right NFL Offensive scheme he can be a nice art time receiving piece, and might be a decent Special Teams performer. But I do not see the hot prospect that multiple Draft Analysts are putting as high as a Round 2 selection. DICKERSON could end up being one of the biggest reaches in this DRAFT by some team.
JACOBY FORD/WR/RS/CLEMSON/5’9/185 The love affair began back in Mobile, when LIONS HC JIM SCHWARTZ referred to FORD as short but not small. He said FORD was a tough guy with football smarts. Then the love affair really blossomed when he ran a blazing 4.28/40 in Indy. But folks he is a track athlete. He’s fast, but also has almost perfect technique for the straight line sprinting that is required in the 40. He just doesn’t play that fast in pads. He led CLEMSON with catches, but his total was only 56 in 13 games. And he only found his way to End Zone 6 times as a receiver, all season. In other words put him in pads, with 21 other guys running around and his effectiveness diminishes. And the NFL is still almost bereft of 5’9” WRs, in great part because it is hard for QBs to find them in all the traffic. FORD is another player I see on lots of TOP 100 lists, and if he goes before the 4th or 5th Rounds some team will be disappointed in the value they got the Pick at the end of the 2010 season.
TORELL TROUP/DT/CENTRAL FLORIDA/6’3/315 I got a chance to see a lot of TROUP during my week in Orlando for the shrine game. I came away from the practices with the feeling that he might more than just a guy, with a decent mix of mobility, strength and size. But then on game day I saw more of what I had seen in two games during the 2009 season. He moves around pretty well for his size, but he doesn’t get into the action much, other than being the last man on the pile. He is also not particularly stout at the point of attack and can be moved off the line. He can hold his own in a rotation system, as a Tackle in a 4-3 scheme, and not much more. He’s a Round 5 guy with a good chance to make an NFL team, but I am seeing his name on some lists as a Friday Pick. That’s just too soon for what this player brings to the field folks.
Every one of these players will likely make an NFL roster next fall. But my point is that if they go in the first Three Rounds where some are projecting them, they will not present good value for the slot at which they are selected, and much more productive pro players will be chosen well after them. Value for the Pick is a big deal at DRAFT time.
Pigskin Paul’s Place
DRAFT DOPE
http://www.pigskinpaul.com/Pigskin_Pauls_Place/Home/Entries/2010/4/1_DRAFT_DOPE.html
Let’s switch gears a bit and talk about a common phenomenon that takes place during any NFL DRAFT; over-Drafting. This is basically the occurrence of players showing enough between the end of the college football season and the DRAFT to convince Personnel People that they are better, and have more Pro potential than game film on them would indicate. There is no specific formula to the phenomenon and it can happen anywhere from Round 1 until the final Pick of the process. Here are five players who I think may be only weeks away from earning some serious cash, but never living up to their presently perceived value once in the League.
JARRETT BROWN/QB/WEST VIRGINIA/6’3/225 BROWN didn’t see the field very often until his Senior season because of PAT WHITE’s presence in Morgantown for the previous 4 years. So the first thing you hear people say when he does something poorly is that he just lacks reps and experience. And then there is that cannon arm that he has, he can throw it as far, and effortlessly as anyone else coming out this year at the QB position, and more so than most. He is also athletic and can roll and run his way to yardage, or just buying time for receivers to come open. And yes I know that he completed just over 63% of his throws this year. But for me think the telling stat is his 11 TD passes, to 9 INT. I don’t think he sees more than half the field on any given play. Some of that can be improved with coaching and experience, but if this guy is Drafted any earlier than Round 4 someone is desperate, and/or fooling themselves.
RILEY COOPER/WR/FLORIDA/6’3/222 TIM TEBOW’s favorite receiver, and roommate is getting a lot more love by some than I can rationalize from what I have seen of the guy. He’s not a bad receiver, and has a chance to be a No.3 or more likely, No.4 wideout in the NFL, if he doesn’t change his mind and head back to baseball after all. he was far from the highest energy guy during practices in Mobile and is certainly not possessing of the speed or quickness to gain lots of separation against NFL Corners. He snared 51 balls from his Roomie, but over 14 games thats a whopping average of 3 catches per game. And before you start blaming TEBOW’s throwing, let me tell in the 8 Gator games I watched he easily dropped two throws per game. I’m not sure he does a good job of locating the ball in the air and catching it over his shoulder. He’s a Day Three Pick for me, but I have sen him slotted well into the TOP 100 Prospects on way too many lists, by guys whose opinion I respect.
DORIN DICKERSON/TE/PITT/6’2/225 The first thing that should get your attention is a guy listed at 6’2/226 being a serious NFL TE prospect. And he pretty much proved in Mobile that he is not quick or fast enough to be a WR in the Pro game. he hit the radar by finally seeing the field as a starter for the Panthers as a senior, but folks he only caught 49 balls. He is going to be no more than an H-B/slot receiver in the NFL. And by the way he is not even quite a full 6’2”. He doesn’t fit anywhere as a full time performer. In the right NFL Offensive scheme he can be a nice art time receiving piece, and might be a decent Special Teams performer. But I do not see the hot prospect that multiple Draft Analysts are putting as high as a Round 2 selection. DICKERSON could end up being one of the biggest reaches in this DRAFT by some team.
JACOBY FORD/WR/RS/CLEMSON/5’9/185 The love affair began back in Mobile, when LIONS HC JIM SCHWARTZ referred to FORD as short but not small. He said FORD was a tough guy with football smarts. Then the love affair really blossomed when he ran a blazing 4.28/40 in Indy. But folks he is a track athlete. He’s fast, but also has almost perfect technique for the straight line sprinting that is required in the 40. He just doesn’t play that fast in pads. He led CLEMSON with catches, but his total was only 56 in 13 games. And he only found his way to End Zone 6 times as a receiver, all season. In other words put him in pads, with 21 other guys running around and his effectiveness diminishes. And the NFL is still almost bereft of 5’9” WRs, in great part because it is hard for QBs to find them in all the traffic. FORD is another player I see on lots of TOP 100 lists, and if he goes before the 4th or 5th Rounds some team will be disappointed in the value they got the Pick at the end of the 2010 season.
TORELL TROUP/DT/CENTRAL FLORIDA/6’3/315 I got a chance to see a lot of TROUP during my week in Orlando for the shrine game. I came away from the practices with the feeling that he might more than just a guy, with a decent mix of mobility, strength and size. But then on game day I saw more of what I had seen in two games during the 2009 season. He moves around pretty well for his size, but he doesn’t get into the action much, other than being the last man on the pile. He is also not particularly stout at the point of attack and can be moved off the line. He can hold his own in a rotation system, as a Tackle in a 4-3 scheme, and not much more. He’s a Round 5 guy with a good chance to make an NFL team, but I am seeing his name on some lists as a Friday Pick. That’s just too soon for what this player brings to the field folks.
Every one of these players will likely make an NFL roster next fall. But my point is that if they go in the first Three Rounds where some are projecting them, they will not present good value for the slot at which they are selected, and much more productive pro players will be chosen well after them. Value for the Pick is a big deal at DRAFT time.
