PFF: Deep Passing

[Hoofbite]

Just checking the stats for their attempts targeting 20 yards downfield.

Looks to be from the spot of the throw as Darren McFadden has 1 attempt, 1 completion and 16 yards. I guess since it was a TD they are counting it because it traveled 4 or more yards into the endzone.

Little look around the league.

1 Ben Roethlisberger........ PIT........ 27
4 E.J. Manuel.................... BUF...... 22
5 Geno Smith.................... NYJ...... 21
5 Drew Brees................... NO........ 21
7 Eli Manning.................... NYG..... 20
10 Michael Vick................ PHI....... 18
12 Tom Brady.................. NE........ 17
12 Philip Rivers............... SD........ 17
16 Aaron Rodgers........... GB........ 16
16 Colin Kaepernick........ SF......... 16
21 Peyton Manning......... DEN..... 14
28 Tony Romo................ DAL....... 9

Obviously a number of factors in play. For instance Ben is 0-4 and is likely trailing a lot along the way and that's just a big part of his game. Evading the rush, extending plays and throwing it as far as he can.

But I just think it's kind of shocking that Dallas is only being credit with 9 attempts. That's a little more than 1 per half. Now, it is PFF and they've only credited 1 of those passing being a drop so maybe they're missing some. I thought both Bryant's drop in KC and Wittens drop in SD were over 20 yards.....maybe not.

But comparing to previous years, this is well below what they have done in the past. Last year Dallas was above 4, likely because of playing catchup almost every week. But even 2011 was at 3.8 which is another 1.5 shots downfield per game.

PFF only goes back to 2008 but I would just assume that 2007 had more shots downfield. That's pretty much the only great offense we have seen under Garrett and TO had quite a few big plays. That last time that Dallas was under 3 attempts per game was 2009. From 2008 to now, Dallas is averaging about 3.4 attempted passes 20 or more yards downfield per game with Romo.

It would be below average, attempts-wise.

Production-wise, it's actually on pace to be the 2nd best season he's had on those passes. So far this year he's credited with 3 TDs on those 20 yard attempts. Looks like it's Harris, Escobar, and the 3rd TD is unclear. I'm assuming Witten because he caught it about 5 yards deep in the endzone.

In 2012 he had 9 TDs, which is 2nd only to 2011 when he had 13.....Laurent Robinson probably had a good portion of them. In 2011 he had 2 INTs, last year he had 5. This year, none. Even taking his partial seasons and projecting them, he's only broken 10 TDs in that category 1 time, in 2011.

What does it all mean? Probably little. I think it's clear that Dallas has reeled things in quite a bit and people can choose whichever reason they want. Some make more sense than others. Dead arm makes almost no sense considering he had a pretty relaxing offseason with the surgery and didn't get a full camp of throwing in.

Whatever the reason, the team is definitely lacking the long ball right now and the team needs to find a way to get it fixed. I think it was Collinsworth a while back who said he'd throw one deep to dez once per quarter just because he can go get it and just to keep the defense honest. I'd like to see it.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

That's an interesting set of stats.

I'd sacrifice some completion percentage for longer pass attempts.

Even the short/medium pass attempts seem to be pass patterns where the receiver doesn't have much of an opportunity for RAC... And all the attempts to Witten? We know how much RAC those generate.

 

[17yearsandcounting]

This offense is the antithesis of excitement. Slow, dull, plodding, predictable.

 

[birdwells1]

That's an interesting set of stats.

I'd sacrifice some completion percentage for longer pass attempts.

Even the short/medium pass attempts seem to be pass patterns where the receiver doesn't have much of an opportunity for RAC... And all the attempts to Witten? We know how much RAC those generate.

In fairness you'd have to compare Tony's numbers to Andy Dalton's and Matt Stafford imo. The reasoning is that they have 1 dominant receiver (and deep threat) and every D is going to probably double them just like they do Dez. Until we have someone else that defenses fear I'm afraid Dez will probably be doubled in most games

 

[Jenky]

Just checking the stats for their attempts targeting 20 yards downfield.

Looks to be from the spot of the throw as Darren McFadden has 1 attempt, 1 completion and 16 yards. I guess since it was a TD they are counting it because it traveled 4 or more yards into the endzone.

Little look around the league.

1 Ben Roethlisberger........ PIT........ 27
4 E.J. Manuel.................... BUF...... 22
5 Geno Smith.................... NYJ...... 21
5 Drew Brees................... NO........ 21
7 Eli Manning.................... NYG..... 20
10 Michael Vick................ PHI....... 18
12 Tom Brady.................. NE........ 17
12 Philip Rivers............... SD........ 17
16 Aaron Rodgers........... GB........ 16
16 Colin Kaepernick........ SF......... 16
21 Peyton Manning......... DEN..... 14
28 Tony Romo................ DAL....... 9

Obviously a number of factors in play. For instance Ben is 0-4 and is likely trailing a lot along the way and that's just a big part of his game. Evading the rush, extending plays and throwing it as far as he can.

But I just think it's kind of shocking that Dallas is only being credit with 9 attempts. That's a little more than 1 per half. Now, it is PFF and they've only credited 1 of those passing being a drop so maybe they're missing some. I thought both Bryant's drop in KC and Wittens drop in SD were over 20 yards.....maybe not.

But comparing to previous years, this is well below what they have done in the past. Last year Dallas was above 4, likely because of playing catchup almost every week. But even 2011 was at 3.8 which is another 1.5 shots downfield per game.

PFF only goes back to 2008 but I would just assume that 2007 had more shots downfield. That's pretty much the only great offense we have seen under Garrett and TO had quite a few big plays. That last time that Dallas was under 3 attempts per game was 2009. From 2008 to now, Dallas is averaging about 3.4 attempted passes 20 or more yards downfield per game with Romo.

It would be below average, attempts-wise.

Production-wise, it's actually on pace to be the 2nd best season he's had on those passes. So far this year he's credited with 3 TDs on those 20 yard attempts. Looks like it's Harris, Escobar, and the 3rd TD is unclear. I'm assuming Witten because he caught it about 5 yards deep in the endzone.

In 2012 he had 9 TDs, which is 2nd only to 2011 when he had 13.....Laurent Robinson probably had a good portion of them. In 2011 he had 2 INTs, last year he had 5. This year, none. Even taking his partial seasons and projecting them, he's only broken 10 TDs in that category 1 time, in 2011.

What does it all mean? Probably little. I think it's clear that Dallas has reeled things in quite a bit and people can choose whichever reason they want. Some make more sense than others. Dead arm makes almost no sense considering he had a pretty relaxing offseason with the surgery and didn't get a full camp of throwing in.

Whatever the reason, the team is definitely lacking the long ball right now and the team needs to find a way to get it fixed. I think it was Collinsworth a while back who said he'd throw one deep to dez once per quarter just because he can go get it and just to keep the defense honest. I'd like to see it.

Can you post a link or the complete list?

 

[MichaelWinicki]

In fairness you'd have to compare Tony's numbers to Andy Dalton's and Matt Stafford imo. The reasoning is that they have 1 dominant receiver (and deep threat) and every D is going to probably double them just like they do Dez. Until we have someone else that defenses fear I'm afraid Dez will probably be doubled in most games

I think a bigger part of this is mindset.

Look at the number of deep passes that Tom Brady has attempted. Almost twice as many as Romo... And look at his receiving corps... Rivers has the same problem with his receiving corps. Boldin isn't a speed guy and Kaepernick is attempting long passes to him.

 

[percyhoward]

Production-wise, it's actually on pace to be the 2nd best season he's had on those passes. So far this year he's credited with 3 TDs on those 20 yard attempts. Looks like it's Harris, Escobar, and the 3rd TD is unclear. I'm assuming Witten because he caught it about 5 yards deep in the endzone.

It was Witten. If you look at those receivers' individual stats, under "receptions by direction," you'll see a breakdown of every target by distance.

PFF often fails whenever subjectivity enters into the equation. They missed Witten's 4th-quarter drop, for instance. And their rating system is notorious. But they're a great source for anything that's objectively measurable like the stats you posted.

 

[birdwells1]

I think a bigger part of this is mindset.

Look at the number of deep passes that Tom Brady has attempted. Almost twice as many as Romo... And look at his receiving corps... Rivers has the same problem with his receiving corps. Boldin isn't a speed guy and Kaepernick is attempting long passes to him.

I guess I'm saying that those wr corps see a lot more single coverage so they have more chances throw the ball deep. When your #1 receiver is your deep threat that means your deep threat is getting doubled. Say, for instance, Williams starts to show up and beats some teams deep in the next 2 or 3 games, that would loosen the coverage on Dez because teams would be afraid of getting hit with a 60-70 yard play. Even when Austin was in, he now lacks the threat of going deep (hamstrings won't let him go all out imo), so defenses still doubled Dez because they didn't fear Austin beating man coverage deep.

Now I could be wrong but this is just my opinion.

 

[Aven8]

It's a catch 22 really. If he stays on pace of the first quarter he will throw for 32 TDs and only 4 INT's. if we can't win with that we will never win.

 

[Hoofbite]

I didn't think it would be an issue with Dalton and Stafford so I didn't put them in.

Dalton is tied with Eli for 7th and Stafford has 13.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I guess I'm saying that those wr corps see a lot more single coverage so they have more chances throw the ball deep. When your #1 receiver is your deep threat that means your deep threat is getting doubled. Say, for instance, Williams starts to show up and beats some teams deep in the next 2 or 3 games, that would loosen the coverage on Dez because teams would be afraid of getting hit with a 60-70 yard play. Even when Austin was in, he now lacks the threat of going deep (hamstrings won't let him go all out imo), so defenses still doubled Dez because they didn't fear Austin beating man coverage deep.

Now I could be wrong but this is just my opinion.

I know what you're saying but still they (the Cowboys) don't even attempt them. Everything seems to be short/medium where the receiver catches the ball (usually not in a position to run with it) gets tackled or gets knocked out of bounds.

 

[maxdallasfan]

O trust in Romo. Nice.

Or they are just protecting Jerry's poster boy from throwing killer INT.

 

[RastaRocket]

Where is Alex Smith on the list?

 

[links18]

In fairness you'd have to compare Tony's numbers to Andy Dalton's and Matt Stafford imo. The reasoning is that they have 1 dominant receiver (and deep threat) and every D is going to probably double them just like they do Dez. Until we have someone else that defenses fear I'm afraid Dez will probably be doubled in most games

Both Jerry and Stephen Jones are on public record saying its OK to throw to a double covered Dez. Of course, the first time this causes an INT, this board will explode with Romo hate.

 

[links18]

It's a catch 22 really. If he stays on pace of the first quarter he will throw for 32 TDs and only 4 INT's. if we can't win with that we will never win.

Sometimes a punt is just another form of a turnover. If he throws no interceptions the rest of the year, it won't matter if the other team consistently scores more points.

 

[Gameover]

Do you have John kitna's stats from 2010?

 

[AdamJT13]

I thought both Bryant's drop in KC and Wittens drop in SD were over 20 yards.....maybe not.

They probably don't count it as a "drop" when the pass is being defended to the point of pass interference. It's usually only when the receiver has a chance of making a routine catch.

 

[Hoofbite]

O trust in Romo. Nice.

Or they are just protecting Jerry's poster boy from throwing killer INT.

I'm not really sure it's either.

If you add up PFFs numbers, they come out to 13 INTs on 266 attempts, which is about 4.8% of the passes.

2008: 5.08%
2009: 4.65%
2010: 4.16%
2011: 3.28%
2012: 7.14%

Pretty consistent. Between 3.28% and 7.14%.

If we look at their current pace they'd go deep 36 times this season. I'm going to compare to 64 which is 4 times per game.

3.28% of 36 is a little over 1 INT.

3.28% of 64 is a little over 2 INTs.

7.14% of 36 is about 2.5 INTs.

7.14% of 64 is about 4.5 INTs.

Basically, at the low end of INT percentage for those throws they will avoid 1 INT over the course of the season by going deep less often. At the high end, they will avoid 2 INTs over the course of the season by choosing to go deep less often.

I don't think it's a lack of confidence or protecting him.

 

[Hoofbite]

They probably don't count it as a "drop" when the pass is being defended to the point of pass interference. It's usually only when the receiver has a chance of making a routine catch.

Oh. I thought it hit his hands and was a catch he should have made. I think that would be an awfully subjective route. If the flag is thrown I'm totally cool with not counting it, but if there is no flag then it's basically up to the person watching to determine if it's pass interference "enough" to warrant the exclusion.

 

[Hoofbite]

Do you have John kitna's stats from 2010?

Off the top of my head it was like 25 for the 9 games.

I think Romo was just behind him for his 6 games.