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DOLPHINS GAVE JAKE LONG A DEADLINE
Posted by Michael David Smith on April 14, 2008, 10:47 a.m.
It has now been widely reported that the Miami Dolphins are engaging in contract negotiations with Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long, and that if the two parties can reach a satisfactory deal, Long will be the first pick in the draft.
But Peter King of SI.com reports that negotiations won’t drag out until the draft. According to King, Long is the only player the Dolphins are actively negotiating with right now, but there is a deadline for Long to accept the deal the Dolphins have offered. If Long doesn’t accept by the deadline, the Dolphins will try to find a player — most likely Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston — who will accept a contract favorable to the team.
King also reports that Dolphins front office boss Bill Parcells is hoping to achieve “the victory of paying this year’s first pick less than the first pick earned last year.”
Paying this year’s top pick less than the Raiders gave quarterback JaMarcus Russell last year certainly would constitute a victory. Contracts for top rookies rise every year, just as the salary cap rises every year. If Parcells became the team executive who convinced a top overall pick to take less, that would be a major achievement.
It would also be good business for the Dolphins. Every dollar the Dolphins save on the first pick is a dollar they can spend to upgrade the roster elsewhere, and this is a team that needs help all over the place.
The problem is that no agent wants to be known as the one whose client agreed to take less money. That means there’s a good chance that the Dolphins will fail to find a player willing to take less than Russell got last year — even though some player might end up turning down an offer from the Dolphins, only to eventually accept a deal for even less money from a team that takes him later in the draft.
PARCELLS IS SIMPLY BEING PARCELLS
Posted by Mike Florio on April 14, 2008, 12:11 p.m.
I was out doing “real” work this morning when MDS posted the blurb about the Fins giving Jake Long a deadline for working out a deal to become the No. 1 overall pick, so I haven’t had a chance to chime in regarding the latest disclosure regarding the team’s tactics.
So I will now.
It’s classic Bill Parcells.
His goal, Peter King believes, is to pay the top pick less money than what the No. 1 pick received in 2007. Only Parcells has the personality to pull this off. And pull it off Parcells will, if the player who ultimately agrees to terms gets good advice based on the best interests of the player, not on the self-interests of his agent.
I wrote about the Parcells’ draft-pick dynamic on Friday for SportingNews.com, but that’s not gonna stop me from addressing it in further detail here.
The analysis is simple. Assuming that he has no preference in teams among the top five who select (Miami, St. Louis, Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City), it’s a dollars-and-cents decision for Jake Long. The issue comes down to how much he’d get in Miami as the No. 1 pick, versus how much he’d get if he isn’t the No. 1 pick.
Gauging that amount can be tricky. Since we’re fairly certain that the Chiefs would pounce on Long if he’s on the board at No. 5, an armchair expert in probability analysis could quickly throw together a formula that would put a dollar value not accepting the Dolphins’ best offer, based on the realistic possibility of getting picked in each spot from No. 2 to No. 5 and the expected contract that each slot will pay.
Under such an analysis, the answer surely would be to take the offer at No. 1.
The only cause for pause would arise if Long were 100 percent certain that he’d otherwise be the No. 2 selection. In that case, he’d need to ask himself whether he thinks he’ll get more money at No. 2 than he’ll get at No. 1.
Complicating matters is the reality that there’s an inherent, but non-specific, marketing value in being the No. 1 overall pick. Also, what Jake Long gets at No. 2 will be influenced heavily by what the Dolphins pay to someone else at No. 1. If one of the other high-end prospects eventually accepts the offer that Jake Long rejects, the ceiling will arguably be established for Jake Long at No. 2.
And Jake Long needs to analyze these tough questions with the input of an agent who would be villified, excoriated, and otherwise dissed by his colleagues in the agent industry if the agent does a deal that actually reduces the astronomical growth in the No. 1 overall contract. From 2003 to 2007, the guaranteed money shot from $15 million to $32 million. The concept of heading in the other direction is something that agents simply aren’t wired to comprehend.
If Long doesn’t take the deal from Miami and lands at No. 5, it won’t be difficult for him to count the difference in real dollars that he sacrificed, possibly so that his agent will then be able to recruit another top-five pick in 2009, 2010, and beyond.
As a league source told me last week, if/when Parcells pulls this off, the first demand from the union in the next CBA will be to prohibit pre-draft negotiations. And that demand will come from the agents who don’t want to be put in the awkward position of serving their clients, and serving themselves.
Maybe this hasn’t happened sooner because the organizations that have held the No. 1 overall pick in the draft were in that position for a reason. This year, the worst team from the prior season cleaned house and brought in a new sheriff who’s willing to take on a fight that, over the past several years, none of the teams at the top of the draft board have had the smarts, the nerve, or the will to wage.
Parcells has it all. And, in this specific context, we love it.
Posted by Michael David Smith on April 14, 2008, 10:47 a.m.
It has now been widely reported that the Miami Dolphins are engaging in contract negotiations with Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long, and that if the two parties can reach a satisfactory deal, Long will be the first pick in the draft.
But Peter King of SI.com reports that negotiations won’t drag out until the draft. According to King, Long is the only player the Dolphins are actively negotiating with right now, but there is a deadline for Long to accept the deal the Dolphins have offered. If Long doesn’t accept by the deadline, the Dolphins will try to find a player — most likely Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston — who will accept a contract favorable to the team.
King also reports that Dolphins front office boss Bill Parcells is hoping to achieve “the victory of paying this year’s first pick less than the first pick earned last year.”
Paying this year’s top pick less than the Raiders gave quarterback JaMarcus Russell last year certainly would constitute a victory. Contracts for top rookies rise every year, just as the salary cap rises every year. If Parcells became the team executive who convinced a top overall pick to take less, that would be a major achievement.
It would also be good business for the Dolphins. Every dollar the Dolphins save on the first pick is a dollar they can spend to upgrade the roster elsewhere, and this is a team that needs help all over the place.
The problem is that no agent wants to be known as the one whose client agreed to take less money. That means there’s a good chance that the Dolphins will fail to find a player willing to take less than Russell got last year — even though some player might end up turning down an offer from the Dolphins, only to eventually accept a deal for even less money from a team that takes him later in the draft.
PARCELLS IS SIMPLY BEING PARCELLS
Posted by Mike Florio on April 14, 2008, 12:11 p.m.
I was out doing “real” work this morning when MDS posted the blurb about the Fins giving Jake Long a deadline for working out a deal to become the No. 1 overall pick, so I haven’t had a chance to chime in regarding the latest disclosure regarding the team’s tactics.
So I will now.
It’s classic Bill Parcells.
His goal, Peter King believes, is to pay the top pick less money than what the No. 1 pick received in 2007. Only Parcells has the personality to pull this off. And pull it off Parcells will, if the player who ultimately agrees to terms gets good advice based on the best interests of the player, not on the self-interests of his agent.
I wrote about the Parcells’ draft-pick dynamic on Friday for SportingNews.com, but that’s not gonna stop me from addressing it in further detail here.
The analysis is simple. Assuming that he has no preference in teams among the top five who select (Miami, St. Louis, Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City), it’s a dollars-and-cents decision for Jake Long. The issue comes down to how much he’d get in Miami as the No. 1 pick, versus how much he’d get if he isn’t the No. 1 pick.
Gauging that amount can be tricky. Since we’re fairly certain that the Chiefs would pounce on Long if he’s on the board at No. 5, an armchair expert in probability analysis could quickly throw together a formula that would put a dollar value not accepting the Dolphins’ best offer, based on the realistic possibility of getting picked in each spot from No. 2 to No. 5 and the expected contract that each slot will pay.
Under such an analysis, the answer surely would be to take the offer at No. 1.
The only cause for pause would arise if Long were 100 percent certain that he’d otherwise be the No. 2 selection. In that case, he’d need to ask himself whether he thinks he’ll get more money at No. 2 than he’ll get at No. 1.
Complicating matters is the reality that there’s an inherent, but non-specific, marketing value in being the No. 1 overall pick. Also, what Jake Long gets at No. 2 will be influenced heavily by what the Dolphins pay to someone else at No. 1. If one of the other high-end prospects eventually accepts the offer that Jake Long rejects, the ceiling will arguably be established for Jake Long at No. 2.
And Jake Long needs to analyze these tough questions with the input of an agent who would be villified, excoriated, and otherwise dissed by his colleagues in the agent industry if the agent does a deal that actually reduces the astronomical growth in the No. 1 overall contract. From 2003 to 2007, the guaranteed money shot from $15 million to $32 million. The concept of heading in the other direction is something that agents simply aren’t wired to comprehend.
If Long doesn’t take the deal from Miami and lands at No. 5, it won’t be difficult for him to count the difference in real dollars that he sacrificed, possibly so that his agent will then be able to recruit another top-five pick in 2009, 2010, and beyond.
As a league source told me last week, if/when Parcells pulls this off, the first demand from the union in the next CBA will be to prohibit pre-draft negotiations. And that demand will come from the agents who don’t want to be put in the awkward position of serving their clients, and serving themselves.
Maybe this hasn’t happened sooner because the organizations that have held the No. 1 overall pick in the draft were in that position for a reason. This year, the worst team from the prior season cleaned house and brought in a new sheriff who’s willing to take on a fight that, over the past several years, none of the teams at the top of the draft board have had the smarts, the nerve, or the will to wage.
Parcells has it all. And, in this specific context, we love it.
