PFT: Goodell plans to address 1st round windfalls

[Idgit]

If the veterans "deserve" it, shouldn't they be getting it as free agents?

They should. And the FA pool is generally merit-based. It's just a smaller pool that it should be.

The problem is the salary cap is restrictive enough that it inflates the value of a high first round hit. High first-round hits *are* more valuable in a salary capped system because they're younger, tend to be healthier, and can more realistically deliver at a high level throughout the term of their deal. The problem is that high first-round misses are damaging to the bad teams that generally select them and to the league in general in that they absorb a disproportionate % of the salary capped dollars available to everyone. You end up with a front loaded payout system that doesn't map as closely to merit as it should, which is in the best interests of nobody other than the high first-round misses.

You moderate the problem by limiting what teams can pay for unknown talent, and shorten the contract cycle for new players so that they're up for a resigning once they've had an opportunity to demonstrate their ability at the professional level.

 

[theogt]

They should. And the FA pool is generally merit-based. It's just a smaller pool that it should be.

The problem is the salary cap is restrictive enough that it inflates the value of a high first round hit. High first-round hits *are* more valuable in a salary capped system because they're younger, tend to be healthier, and can more realistically deliver at a high level throughout the term of their deal. The problem is that high first-round misses are damaging to the bad teams that generally select them and to the league in general in that they absorb a disproportionate % of the salary capped dollars available to everyone. You end up with a front loaded payout system that doesn't map as closely to merit as it should, which is in the best interests of nobody other than the high first-round misses.

You moderate the problem by limiting what teams can pay for unknown talent, and shorten the contract cycle for new players so that they're up for a resigning once they've had an opportunity to demonstrate their ability at the professional level.

I think people are highly exaggerating the cap hit of high draft picks. Adrian Peterson's cap hit this year will be $4-5 million. That's about average for a starter in the NFL. Considering most top 5 picks are pretty much guaranteed starters in year 1, that's not really a bad deal.

 

[jterrell]

I think that's a great idea, but the argument will always be that in football there is greater risk of injury, so larger guaranteed contracts are necessary.

But they aren't guaranteed. Just the bonus is.

What may work as a concession is fully guaranteed smaller rookie contracts exactly like the NBA.

They'd get that rich second deal sooner and could get huge signing bonuses then because teams would have the jack to pay for them.

 

[theogt]

But they aren't guaranteed. Just the bonus is.

What may work as a concession is fully guaranteed smaller rookie contracts exactly like the NBA.

They'd get that rich second deal sooner and could get huge signing bonuses then because teams would have the jack to pay for them.

High guaranteed amounts is what they're trying to get rid of, though.

 

[jterrell]

I think people are highly exaggerating the cap hit of high draft picks. Adrian Peterson's cap hit this year will be $4-5 million. That's about average for a starter in the NFL. Considering most top 5 picks are pretty much guaranteed starters in year 1, that's not really a bad deal.

Some of these guy are not starters and it actually causes them to bust out of the league. A guy like Romo or Crayton for instance was paid less money so they could be developed.

Developing Carpenter is an issue. He makes a lot of money right now as a nickel backer.

4.5 mil per starter on average at 22 starters is almost 100 million dollars. that sure doesn't leave much space for backups or special teamers.

 

[theogt]

Some of these guy are not starters and it actually causes them to bust out of the league. A guy like Romo or Crayton for instance was paid less money so they could be developed.

Developing Carpenter is an issue. He makes a lot of money right now as a nickel backer.

4.5 mil per starter on average at 22 starters is almost 100 million dollars. that sure doesn't leave much space for backups or special teamers.

Once you get out of the top 5-10 players, contracts decrease dramatically. A guy drafted in the late first round only has a cap hit around $1-2 million. That's peanuts in today's cap.

The players in the lower end of the roster are counting less than $1 million per person against the cap.

 

[jterrell]

High guaranteed amounts is what they're trying to get rid of, though.

They are trying to get rid of the high figures for rookies altogether.
The answer is a rookie cap. That cap would be lesser money but all of it guaranteed instead of just the bonus in my mind.

Instead of seeing

16 mil signing bonus
year one 1 mil
year two 1 mil
year three 3 mil
year four 3 mil
year five 4 mil

for a total of 5 years 26 mil.

You'd see perhaps something like:

2 mil signing bonus
year one 2 mil
year two 3 mil
year three 4 mil

3 year 11 million dollar deal all guaranteed.

Then the guy hits free agency and if he was any good he makes up that 15 million dollar different in signing bonus on his second contract.

 

[theogt]

They are trying to get rid of the high figures for rookies altogether.
The answer is a rookie cap. That cap would be lesser money but all of it guaranteed instead of just the bonus in my mind.

Instead of seeing

16 mil signing bonus
year one 1 mil
year two 1 mil
year three 3 mil
year four 3 mil
year five 4 mil

for a total of 5 years 26 mil.

You'd see perhaps something like:

2 mil signing bonus
year one 2 mil
year two 3 mil
year three 4 mil

3 year 11 million dollar deal all guaranteed.

Then the guy hits free agency and if he was any good he makes up that 15 million dollar different in signing bonus on his second contract.

No, I agree that this system is a better idea -- I was just responding to your post about the contracts not being guaranteed. They're getting 15-20 million in guaranteed money.

But, again, the players will always scream that risk of injuries requires a higher amount guaranteed.

 

[TX_Yid]

The risk of injury doesn't hold much water. The risk is just as high for an undrafted free agent, he's not guaranteed a living from an NFL team, a first round pick deserves $20M because he was great in college?

Cry me a river. If you want a gauaranteed income study hard at college while you are there and have a plan B should the worst come to the worst on the field.

 

[theogt]

The risk of injury doesn't hold much water. The risk is just as high for an undrafted free agent, he's not guaranteed a living from an NFL team, a first round pick deserves $20M because he was great in college?

Cry me a river. If you want a gauaranteed income study hard at college while you are there and have a plan B should the worst come to the worst on the field.

The oh-so-subtle difference may be that UDFAs typically aren't as good as high first rounders. Subtle, I know.

 

[TX_Yid]

The oh-so-subtle difference may be that UDFAs typically aren't as good as high first rounders. Subtle, I know.

I'm saying a first round pick shouldn't be able to demand $20M up front in case they get injured.
The NFL doesn't owe you a living because you were a college standout. You deserve the money if you consistently perform for your team.. risk of injury shouldn't equate to exorbitant signing bonuses.

 

[aikemirv]

The risk of injury doesn't hold much water. The risk is just as high for an undrafted free agent, he's not guaranteed a living from an NFL team, a first round pick deserves $20M because he was great in college?

Cry me a river. If you want a gauaranteed income study hard at college while you are there and have a plan B should the worst come to the worst on the field.

How much money do you think the signing of Reggie Bush brought to the Saints organization? I am kind of torn on the issue. I think they do deserve alot because of the effort they put in to be great at college just like anyone else who puts in the work and effort to be good at anything else. They are just in a profession that pays very well.

I dont like the holdouts though. I would like to see a set contract structure for the top ten with escalators for the years based on the salary cap.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

The NFL is the only profession that I know that someone straight out of college will make more than someone doing the same job with tenure.

I think there should be a slotted cap for all draft picks. #1 gets this, #2 gets this, no hold outs, just get out there and prove yourself.

 

[theogt]

I'm saying a first round pick shouldn't be able to demand $20M up front in case they get injured.
The NFL doesn't owe you a living because you were a college standout. You deserve the money if you consistently perform for your team.. risk of injury shouldn't equate to exorbitant signing bonuses.

Your argument that UDFAs should get paid as much as the #1 overall pick is well-reasoned and stunningly persuasive.

 

[TX_Yid]

Your argument that UDFAs should get paid as much as the #1 overall pick is well-reasoned and stunningly persuasive.

I'm not sure where you think I said that.

Again, the point I was responding too was that 1st rounders deserve a huge signing bonus in case they get a career ending injury. I disagree that the risk of injury should be a factor in the signing bonuses, thats all.

I'm saying a 1st rounder whose career in unfortunately ended early (say 1st year) is no more valuable to a team than an UDFA with the same injury. Why should one walk away with $20M and one walk away with nothing?
I don't think a good college career alone is worth that type of money.

A 1st rounder who helps his NFL team over the course of his contract is absolutely entitled to a huge pay day, but I think you should have to earn it in the NFL, not in college.

 

[theogt]

I'm not sure where you think I said that.

Again, the point I was responding too was that 1st rounders deserve a huge signing bonus in case they get a career ending injury. I disagree that the risk of injury should be a factor in the signing bonuses, thats all.

I'm saying a 1st rounder whose career in unfortunately ended early (say 1st year) is no more valuable to a team than an UDFA with the same injury. Why should one walk away with $20M and one walk away with nothing?
I don't think a good college career alone is worth that type of money.

A 1st rounder who helps his NFL team over the course of his contract is absolutely entitled to a huge pay day, but I think you should have to earn it in the NFL, not in college.

You're confusing present value in the future with future value in the present. A first rounder has more future value in the present than an UDFA. We don't make contracts based on the future with knowledge of the future. We based them on what we know in the present. And typically we know that first rounders are better athletes.

As for where you said it, here's the quote:

The risk of injury doesn't hold much water. The risk is just as high for an undrafted free agent, he's not guaranteed a living from an NFL team, a first round pick deserves $20M because he was great in college?

Cry me a river. If you want a gauaranteed income study hard at college while you are there and have a plan B should the worst come to the worst on the field.

 

[TX_Yid]

You're confusing present value in the future with future value in the present. A first rounder has more future value in the present than an UDFA. We don't make contracts based on the future with knowledge of the future. We based them on what we know in the present. And typically we know that first rounders are better athletes.

As for where you said it, here's the quote:

ok, you win.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

A price ceiling in the NFL rookie labor market wouldnt adversely effect supply and it would solve escalating costs.

i could care less about market forces dictating the cost. The current trend is a problem because agents are demanding a proportional increase every year and it needs to stop and/or be reversed.

Any labor market where you have new entrants making more than the tenured and most qualified then you have a problem.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I think that's a great idea, but the argument will always be that in football there is greater risk of injury, so larger guaranteed contracts are necessary.

especially since there are over 300 players that get drafted as opposed to only 58-60 in the NBA

 

[GlitzCowboy]

If you guarantee a kid $30M and he turns out to be Ki-Jana Carter, you're in real trouble.

Just another aspect of the game of football is all. A team must draft wisely or get burnt in the process and possibly screw their team for years to come. Same as signing a big player to a free agent contract and them coming up limp a couple weeks in. The game isn't just played on the field. And just like any game worth a grain of salt, great chance and risk are part of it.

Personally I don't think there is anything the commissioner could possibly do to stop this. The money is being played by the owners and they're going to keep playing it as long as the potential payoff exceeds the risk, which it still does. Sure stipulations could be instilled, but then a Mr. Moneybags Jerry Jones would just come along and find a way around it. Just like when the salary cap came to be and suddenly teams were dishing out giant signing bonuses to loop around it and give players the money they still deserved.

Money paid, quite simply is and always will remain with the owners controlling that power. Unless the commish could come up with something that could literally tickle the owners "pink", he may not want to mess with the big money game they have going on. Saying a player can't do so and so off the field, or can't celebrate, whatever simple like that, is one thing...but thinking he controls the wallets of the owners is highly different. And at the end of the day we can't ever forget, this league resides under the roofs of these owners. They are the true powers that be that give us this grand privaledge of NFL Football. Take away the money, and keep taking it and keep taking it, and just see how long these good ole' boys want to continue playing with us anymore.