PFW: First Round Boom or Bust Predictions

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Boom or bust

First-round picks traditionally are a 50-50 proposition

By Eric Edholm (eedholm@pfwmedia.com)
May 3, 2007


It’s just a matter of fact: About half of the first-round picks from Saturday will fail.

And though "fail" is a subjective term, not fulfilling expectations is another way of saying it. Basically, 16 of the 32 first-round picks will come up short.

It’s true. Go back and look at any draft in the past 20 years. It’s about a 50-50 shot. There might not be a cut-and-dry definition of what success entails. Take, for instance, Marc Colombo. He suffered injuries in Chicago after being taken by the Bears with their first pick in 2002, and though he never made it there, he has become a productive pro with the Cowboys. Chalk Colombo as a circuitous success, though the Bears never saw the benefit of any rewards.

That said, applying the 50 percent rule to this year’s class, it’s impossible to say which guys will succeed and which will flunk out. Some will get hurt unexpectedly — there’s a Yatil Green every few years, guys who should have made it — and some will get dealt a bad hand.

And this is all assuming that we have a fairly consistent standard deviation in terms of talent. In truth, many NFL people shrugged at this year’s talent pool, writing it off somewhat as shallow and uninspiring. No way will it approach the greatness of last year’s banner rookie class, at least not right away.

But let’s make our best guess, picks 1-32, at which players ultimately will fare well in the league. There will be 16 “booms” and 16 “busts.”

1. Oakland — QB JaMarcus Russell — Prediction: Bust

Like Nolan Nawrocki, who follows this stuff more closely than I do, I just have a hard time thinking that Russell is going to meet the extremely high expectations that have been put on him. His talent ceiling is undeniable, but I never really saw those moments of brilliance in college on a regular basis, and I watched a fair number of LSU games. Russell might not be enough of a gym rat and a worker to get it done. Years from now, Russell will be seen as Al Davis' final big mistake as the team's owner.

2. Detroit — WR Calvin Johnson — Prediction: Boom

How can this kid not do well? (Bad question to ask of a Lions player.) But really, there are too many reasons to think that he’ll be the best player to come out of this draft when we look back three years from now and beyond. With Roy Williams opposite Johnson, we’ll be comparing this pair to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin very soon and arguing over which is the best WR combo in the league.

3. Cleveland — OLT Joe Thomas — Prediction: Bust

I hate to do this because I think Thomas is a good kid and a good player, but ultimately, I think he’ll be moved to right tackle. Now, he might end up being a serviceable player at that spot, but I never have seen that dominant streak that defines the league’s great left tackles. Jonathan Ogden had it. Orlando Pace still has it. Walter Jones. William Thomas. Chris Samuels. All of them play with an edge, but I rarely see that out of Thomas. The problem is that his becoming a solid, eight-year starter at right tackle has to be deemed a failure for a No. 3 pick.

4. Tampa Bay — DE Gaines Adams — Prediction: Bust

There are some guys whom you just get a bad feeling about, and it’s tough to put your finger on it. There are many things to love about Adams, including the fact that it often looks like he is shot out of a gun when he pins his ears back and attacks the quarterback or picks up a loose ball. But there are enough questions about his character and intelligence, starting his career out on a transitioning Bucs club, that scare me off.

5. Arizona — OT Levi Brown — Prediction: Boom

This might come as a surprise, seeing as how Brown needs more refinement than Thomas, but if Levi is good enough for the Mushroom Society, the exclusive, semi-secret sect of OL coaches around the league, he’s good enough for me. I say he turns into what the franchise thought Leonard Davis could be.

6. Washington — FS LaRon Landry — Prediction: Boom

Landry is a good football player, and he fills a need with the Commanders. He should help get Sean Taylor’s head back on straight, and the defensive scheme will be set up to allow Landry to make plays. Is he going to help the Commanders improve significantly this season? Probably not all that much, but I like his chances to be good.

7. Minnesota — RB Adrian Peterson — Prediction: Boom

The only thing that will keep Peterson from being great would be injuries. Maybe he’s not an ideal fit in this offense, but he sure can run. And I think he'll learn to run in a way that preserves him for a longer career.

8. Atlanta — DE Jamaal Anderson — Prediction: Bust

This is one I struggled with. Although I like Anderson’s production and grade him higher for doing well against SEC teams, I see him as a classic ’tweener: not explosive enough as a pure pass rusher and not enough of a beast against the run. My guess is that he’ll turn into a pretty good player, but never a great one. Think a poor man’s Adewale Ogunleye.

9. Miami — WR-RS Ted Ginn — Prediction: Bust

He has something you can’t teach, but like many other people, I am not convinced that he’ll ever get it as a receiver. I just don’t salivate when I think about John Beck throwing to Ginn. Maybe he’ll be a good punt returner, but as great as Devin Hester was last year, no one in their right mind would say he was worth taking with the ninth pick in the draft.

10. Houston — DT Amobi Okoye — Prediction: Bust

Boy, I am harsh, eh? Basically any kid with potential is a dog in this draft so far. In reality, I just think he’s going to fall short of expectations, given that he might not get better from this point on. People talk about how advanced he is for his age, but I can tell you I can’t think of too many 19- or 20-year-olds anywhere who can handle the bright lights and distractions of the NFL.

11. San Francisco — LB Patrick Willis — Prediction: Boom

I have bled plenty of words elsewhere about how good I think this kid will be, so I’ll keep it short. A candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year who also should have a fruitful career. I love the kid.

12. Buffalo — RB Marshawn Lynch — Prediction: Bust

There’s enough talent to suggest he can have a good year or two, like Willis McGahee did, but I think Lynch’s problems will lie elsewhere. His character has been considered a little different by some NFL types, and he might not ever work out in Buffalo. And like McGahee, he could end up with another team after 3-4 years.

13. St. Louis — DE Adam Carriker — Prediction: Boom

He’s exactly the anchor the Rams need up front. And he’s a heck of a good kid. He might never be a 10-sack guy, but he’s this decade’s Grant Wistrom, who was productive with the Rams.

14. N.Y. Jets — CB Darrelle Revis — Prediction: Boom

Revis will be the best cornerback in this class by a clear margin. He has better ball skills than Leon Hall and, with good teaching, won’t get burned deep as much. The Jets got a nice player here.

15. Pittsburgh — LB Lawrence Timmons — Prediction: Boom

Can you picture Mike Tomlin letting this kid fail? He might have to be patient with Timmons, who is likely to go through some up-and-down spells, but in the end he’ll get a very productive player who matures in time.

16. Green Bay — DT Justin Harrell — Prediction: Bust

One of the bigger mysteries of the first round. In terms of talent, he’s a good bet to make it, especially in a scheme that uses its linemen well, but he has the kind of injury history that makes one think that he’s bound to get hurt — more than once — again.

17. Denver — DE Jarvis Moss — Prediction: Bust

I have had my doubts about this kid ever since his title-game performance lifted him into the draft. Let’s face it: had he not had two sacks and a forced fumble on the biggest spotlight, I don’t think he considers coming out after what would have been a 5½-sack season. Too raw, too upright and not disciplined enough for my taste.

18. Cincinnati — CB Leon Hall — Prediction: Bust

In the sense that nickel backs nowadays are drafted in Round One without much thought, I suppose Hall could end up being valuable enough. But I just don’t see much of a shutdown corner here. I see more of a cover-2 guy who won’t kill you but won’t make your secondary that much better. Maybe he’s better than I think he is, but I have a hard time forgetting his performances against Ohio State and USC last season.

19. Tennessee — S Michael Griffin — Prediction: Boom

You can argue all you want that the Titans ignored their needs at defensive end and wideout, which might be true, but that doesn’t mean Griffin can’t, as the team expects, be a very solid player. He’ll make his impact felt on special teams, where he blocked eight kicks in college, as well as at safety opposite Chris Hope. It might not be Landry-Sean Taylor good, but you could do a lot worse than Hope and Griffin as your safeties.

20. N.Y. Giants — CB Aaron Ross — Prediction: Bust

Based on what I talked about with Hall, expectations for cornerbacks must be muted somewhat — there is, by definition, no true shutdown corner in the game other than Champ Bailey — but Ross has a chance. He has nice size and ball skills, plus some punt-return ability, but he probably never will be more than a No. 2, and though that’s pretty good, I suppose, I just can’t call him a true "boom."

21. Jacksonville — FS Reggie Nelson — Prediction: Bust

When it comes down to it, a lack of intelligence could be Nelson’s downfall, even if he has anticipatory skills you can’t teach. There’s a sense that things could blow up in Jacksonville if this year is not a big hit, and a new coach might not see all of Nelson’s virtues the same way as this staff apparently does.

22. Cleveland — QB Brady Quinn — Prediction: Boom

Quarterbacks are either good of not, and so there’s no real point in mentioning his slide in the draft or even what the team gave up for him (next year’s likely top-10 pick). And I think Quinn will be good. He’s polished and smart, and though he lacks a cannon arm, I think one of the fallacies that emerged from this year’s Quinn vs. Russell debate is that arm strength rose to the top of the QB prerequisites chart. He’ll do just fine as he builds up his arm. His brain is strong enough right now to succeed.

23. Kansas City — WR Dwayne Bowe — Prediction: Bust

I hate to do this, because I have an affinity for Bowe, but I think he might never be more than a No. 2 or No. 3 guy in the NFL, and in the Chiefs’ offense, that might mean 30-40 catches, tops. Sure, Bowe can block, which endears him to Herm Edwards, but receptions of consequence are few and far between with this system, and Bowe was one of those guys in college who needed the ball early in games to get in a rhythm.

24. New England — FS Brandon Meriweather — Prediction: Boom

If there’s a defensive scheme that allows a gambler like Meriweather to succeed, it’s this one. If the Patriots can win with Artrell Hawkins, Michael Stone, et al at safety, certainly a guy with great ball skills such as Meriweather can be a productive pro.

25. Carolina — LB Jon Beason — Prediction: Boom

They are already falling for this guy down in Charlotte. Sure, he’s not a measurables guy, but he plays football well and has a knack for being around the ball. I expect good things from him right away in this veteran defense that only needed minor tweaking, and I think he’ll have a productive 10 years in the pros.

26. Dallas — OLB-DE Anthony Spencer —Prediction: Boom

Wade Phillips saw enough Shaun Phillips in Spencer to make him a No. 1 pick, and the similarities are undeniable. Lest we forget, though, that Shaun Phillips took a little while to get on the field, so don’t judge this pick too quickly if Spencer has four sacks as a rookie.

27. New Orleans — WR Robert Meachem — Prediction: Boom

I thought Meachem was the most consistently dangerous receiver in college last season, more so than the mercurial Ginn. And in this offense, with Drew Brees throwing the ball, there’s a good chance Meachem will be a successful pro. He’s serious-minded, tough and fast, and that’s all Sean Payton can ask for.

28. San Francisco — OT Joe Staley — Prediction: Bust

He might not have the frame to be a massive tackle, and he doesn’t have elite OLT feet. I just see something similar to Thomas: a solid technician who gets moved to right tackle at some point. Again, that might not be a bad thing, but right tackles rarely are seen as first-round picks.

29. Baltimore — OG Ben Grubbs — Prediction: Boom

Grubbs might have been one of the safest picks of Round One. In fact, if you asked 30 NFL talent evaluators to pick the surest Pro Bowler of this year’s draft not named Calvin Johnson, I bet Grubbs would finish in the top five. He’s compact and athletic, tough and determined. Maybe he’s not Shawn Andrews, but Grubbs could end up being very good. Classic Ravens pick.

30. San Diego — WR Craig Davis — Prediction: Bust

I never got all that excited by Davis in college, though I did feel like he had more talent than we saw on a weekly basis. Seems like a thing with them Bayou Bengals (see my JaMarcus write-up up top). I am not crazy about his durability, and he seems a little more like a track guy and not a football player. I think we’ll see flashes from him but never anything consistent.

31. Chicago — TE Greg Olsen — Prediction: Bust

The Bears haven’t had a pass-catching tight end, the locals argue, since Ditka (no first name needed). But that doesn’t mean that the first one to come along is going to fill the bill. I think he’ll be a solid pass catcher and nothing more, good for maybe 40-50 catches per season, but until he improves his blocking and upper-body strength, I think he’ll be a part-time player.

32. Indianapolis — WR Anthony Gonzalez — Prediction: Boom

Bill Polian built this team on offense, and he got another prime piece in Gonzalez, who is an exceptional route runner and a perfect fit in the slot. In time, he’ll return punts, too, I think. Reggie Wayne took time to develop — he had only 11 TDs in his first three seasons combined — and we might have to wait for Gonzo to put up big numbers, but he’ll be worth the wait. He’s too talented and focused not to succeed.

LINK
 

Zaxor

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the only one I might disagree with is Peterson as I think injuries will be his undoing
 

DanTanna

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26. Dallas — OLB-DE Anthony Spencer —Prediction: Boom

Wade Phillips saw enough Shaun Phillips in Spencer to make him a No. 1 pick, and the similarities are undeniable. Lest we forget, though, that Shaun Phillips took a little while to get on the field, so don’t judge this pick too quickly if Spencer has four sacks as a rookie.

I'm predicting 8.5 sacks and a butt-load of great plays to boot! :)
 

joseephuss

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Really the only one I disagree with is Griffin. I just don't see him as a good NFL safety. I didn't think he was superb in college and it just gets tougher in the pros. He is a more athletic Keith Davis.

I say it all the time. It is easier to predict busts than it is to predict greatness. The odds just favor the busts. Even if a player turns out to be decent and solid, they can still come across as somewhat of a bust just because they were picked in the first round. Gregg Ellis is a great example.
 

Wrangler87

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Zaxor;1487773 said:
the only one I might disagree with is Peterson as I think injuries will be his undoing

I agree. He is my pick as this years big bust. The only reason his ability to get injured. He's good at it. They call his injuries flukes, but I call them non-contact, which is even worse than contacted related injuries. He may just be fragile. I predict he will be the bust of the draft, like I predicted Cadillac Williams would be two years ago, and for the exact same reason.
 

jazzcat22

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DanTanna;1487782 said:
I'm predicting 8.5 sacks and a butt-load of great plays to boot! :)

Shooting a little low for his production for his 1st game aren't you? :lmao:
 

Dallas

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Wrangler87;1488021 said:
The only reason his ability to get injured. He's good at it. They call his injuries flukes, but I call them non-contact, which is even worse than contacted related injuries.

The only non-contact injury AD sustained at OU was his dive into the endzone on a 53 yrd TD run which broke his collar bone. He has been hampered by that still.

Other than that. I cant think of any other.

His high ankle sprain was certainly contact motivated one would think back in 05. You certainly don't just wake up and grab your ankle and scream "high ankle sprain".



Just keeping you all straight on Peterson since some do not care to even go research his so called "non-contact injuries". :D
 

DallasEast

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Eric Edholm;1487768 said:
3. Cleveland — OLT Joe Thomas — Prediction: Bust

22. Cleveland — QB Brady Quinn — Prediction: Boom
These two picks are intertwined. The Browns are really depending on Thomas to protect Quinn's blindside for years to come. I find it hard to imagine seeing one have success while the other doesn't.
 

adamknite

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For once a prediction article that actually makes sense. I may not agree with a couple but you can respect his dicision because he actually seems informed.

Also: Why is this Landry-Taylor safety combo being praised so much? Landry has never played an NFL down.
 

BouncingCheese

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I think the Cardinals are stupid; Levi Brown is just like Leonard Davis...His feet are too slow to be a LT...Brown could be a fantastic guard, though you do NOT draft a guard in the top 22. The Cardinals front office may be the worst in the league.. After all they JUST created direct deposit for its players; could you imagine how nervous a player would be driving around knowing he has a 50,000 dollar check in his pocket every week he has to deposit?
 

adamknite

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BouncingCheese;1488087 said:
I think the Cardinals are stupid; Levi Brown is just like Leonard Davis...His feet are too slow to be a LT...Brown could be a fantastic guard, though you do NOT draft a guard in the top 22. The Cardinals front office may be the worst in the league.. After all they JUST created direct deposit for its players; could you imagine how nervous a player would be driving around knowing he has a 50,000 dollar check in his pocket every week he has to deposit?

They're the cardinals, did you really expect better?
 

BouncingCheese

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DallasEast;1488056 said:
These two picks are intertwined. The Browns are really depending on Thomas to protect Quinn's blindside for years to come. I find it hard to imagine seeing one have success while the other doesn't.

I don't know where you get your rationale from.

Thomas could be a fantastic tackle but Quinn could still bust, just like Quinn could be great and Thomas could bust. ...

Eaxample:
If we as cowboys fans can put our homeristic feelings away for a minute, I noticed (as I live in DC they always show Skins games so I saw it) that the Commanders offensive line is actually really very good ( ladell betts had five 100+ yard games in six weeks) but Jason Campbell still sucked behind pretty good pass protection.

I bring up the skins because Quinn could still have a great offensive line like Campbell, but still end up sucking terribly. Likewise, Quinn could still have a good career even if Thomas sucks ( look what Romo did even though flo' was terrible at LT)

If anything, Quinn and Thomas will be rememberd if one of them suceeded and the other one failed.
 

DallasEast

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BouncingCheese;1488100 said:
I don't know where you get your rationale from.

Thomas could be a fantastic tackle but Quinn could still bust, just like Quinn could be great and Thomas could bust. ...

Eaxample:
If we as cowboys fans can put our homeristic feelings away for a minute, I noticed (as I live in DC they always show Skins games so I saw it) that the Commanders offensive line is actually really very good ( ladell betts had five 100+ yard games in six weeks) but Jason Campbell still sucked behind pretty good pass protection.

I bring up the skins because Quinn could still have a great offensive line like Campbell, but still end up sucking terribly. Likewise, Quinn could still have a good career even if Thomas sucks ( look what Romo did even though flo' was terrible at LT)

If anything, Quinn and Thomas will be rememberd if one of them suceeded and the other one failed.
No homerism here. IMO, Quinn's success is tied directly in how well his offensive line will provide protection. Left tackle (in this case Thomas) is the best OL protector a right-handed quarterback can have. The Browns aren't going to give up on Thomas any time soon. If he struggles, I see Quinn struggling as well. JMO.
 

lspain1

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DanTanna;1487782 said:
I'm predicting 8.5 sacks and a butt-load of great plays to boot! :)

No offense to you Dan. I'm old school and stuffy....I admit it .....but "butt load" does not do it for me as an adjective...or a noun...or an adverb...or whatever it is.:eek:hno:
 

bobtheflob

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adamknite;1488067 said:
Also: Why is this Landry-Taylor safety combo being praised so much? Landry has never played an NFL down.

Because nobody else has used two top-ten picks on their safeties before. Unfortunately with no pass rush they're both going to spend a lot of time getting burned on Sundays.
 

BouncingCheese

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DallasEast;1488111 said:
No homerism here. IMO, Quinn's success is tied directly in how well his offensive line will provide protection. Left tackle (in this case Thomas) is the best OL protector a right-handed quarterback can have. The Browns aren't going to give up on Thomas any time soon. If he struggles, I see Quinn struggling as well. JMO.

Point taken, friend, but we shall agree to disagree.

I just say take a look at Romo last year, and he played very well considering everything, including flo' bieng too slow-footed to protect that side. The Browns' line is worse than ours, but Quinn could still be decent even if Thomas doesn't play up to his billing; visce-versa Thomas playing well and Quinn not.
 

DallasEast

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BouncingCheese;1488120 said:
Point taken, friend, but we shall agree to disagree.

I just say take a look at Romo last year, and he played very well considering everything, including flo' bieng too slow-footed to protect that side. The Browns' line is worse than ours, but Quinn could still be decent even if Thomas doesn't play up to his billing; visce-versa Thomas playing well and Quinn not.
I'm not a Notre Dame fan, so I can't say to have watched Quinn exclusively. From what little I have seen of him, imo he's not as effective after being flushed out of the pocket as Romo. Mobility and improvisation on the run are great assets. If Quinn has these assets, then he will prove my assumption wrong. If he doesn't have these assets, I guess we can still agree to disagree. :)
 
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