PFW's exclusive draft value chart

[theogt]

Based on this chart I see even more justification for trading entirely out of the first round and getting an extra first next year as well as getting maybe a 2nd and a 3rd this year in the process. Now we have 2 seconds, thirds and fourths.

Based on this chart here's what I'd do:

#2a. Trumaine Johnson
#2b. Brandon Brooks
#3a. Bruce Irvin
#3b. Ryan Broyles
#4a. Jared Crick
#4b. Josh Norman

Now I'm also set up with two first rounders next year. Hopefully one of them ends up in the top 10 where I can grab a future QB or perhaps an elite playmaker at another position (LB, DL, OT).

Nope. This first round is loaded. You don't trade out of rounds that are loaded with talent. That's not good business.

 

[Eskimo]

Nope. This first round is loaded. You don't trade out of rounds that are loaded with talent. That's not good business.

I'm not sure about this first round in top end talent:

2 top QBs and then maybe a third but not reasonable prospect for us on the board to trade down with

1 good CB, the other guy rising the board was a second rounder at the start of draft season

No elite pass rushers

Only 1 high end LT prospect

No elite WR prospects (I don't think Blackmon is elite)

This first round is lacking in impact players at impact positions. I see lots of good players but not many great players.

I'd rather take my chances by deferring until next year where we might get a better choice of players to fit our needs. Our best chances this year are at Safety (Barron) and OG (DeCastro) or a couple of DL that can't rush the passer (Cox or Brockers). I'm sorry but that is slim pickings and you can usually get similar players in the second rounds of most drafts.

Our only real hope of getting the impact defender I want is if Coples falls and we pull the trigger on him.

Last year we really lucked out with Tyron dropping to us so I hope the same thing happens to us this year with Coples. Otherwise I'll take the trade down route.

 

[808CowboyFan]

trade back
1. Konz
2. Jenkins
3. Irvin
3. Broyles

 

[theogt]

I'm not sure about this first round in top end talent:

2 top QBs and then maybe a third but not reasonable prospect for us on the board to trade down with

1 good CB, the other guy rising the board was a second rounder at the start of draft season

No elite pass rushers

Only 1 high end LT prospect

No elite WR prospects (I don't think Blackmon is elite)

This first round is lacking in impact players at impact positions. I see lots of good players but not many great players.

I'd rather take my chances by deferring until next year where we might get a better choice of players to fit our needs. Our best chances this year are at Safety (Barron) and OG (DeCastro) or a couple of DL that can't rush the passer (Cox or Brockers). I'm sorry but that is slim pickings and you can usually get similar players in the second rounds of most drafts.

Our only real hope of getting the impact defender I want is if Coples falls and we pull the trigger on him.

Last year we really lucked out with Tyron dropping to us so I hope the same thing happens to us this year with Coples. Otherwise I'll take the trade down route.

You and I are way apart on this year's draft class. Coples is actually one of the few guys I don't want and don't think is an elite prospect.

 

[Eskimo]

You and I are way apart on this year's draft class. Coples is actually one of the few guys I don't want and don't think is an elite prospect.

Coples is boom or bust - I'll admit to that. If we can harness his ability we have a top 5 player. If we can't reignite his spark then we get nothing. I think we will be able to convert him so that is why I like the pick. He'll do well surrounded by guys like Ware, Ratliff, Lee and Connor.

As for this draft, I don't like the top end but I do like the depth at CB, OG and OLB which is where we have needs. That is why I want to trade down and fill up the holes in the roster.

I also want a shot at a QB next year.

 

[theogt]

Coples is boom or bust - I'll admit to that. If we can harness his ability we have a top 5 player. If we can't reignite his spark then we get nothing. I think we will be able to convert him so that is why I like the pick. He'll do well surrounded by guys like Ware, Ratliff, Lee and Connor.

As for this draft, I don't like the top end but I do like the depth at CB, OG and OLB which is where we have needs. That is why I want to trade down and fill up the holes in the roster.

I also want a shot at a QB next year.

I can't recall the last time we've seen a draft this deep in first round talent. 2008 would probably be the last year, I think.

 

[jswalker1981]

Just based on that board, I'd go 1-Barron, 2-vinnie curry, 3-Philip Blake, 4-Joe Adams, 4-Chase minnifield, 5-Akiem Hicks, 6-vontaze burfict, 7-beau Reliford


Also, just a few days ago I was thinking it would be great if CZ did a draft board. We could average everyone's together and post it before the draft. It would give us a little bit more of a uniformed opinion of where a player should be picked.

 

[cowboysooner]

This is a really interesting list. To me there are a couple of guys that are clearly underranked given the board's opinion of them McClellan and Crick. I'd like to see people's opinion with those guys plus Coples available and how different it would be with those guys graded 1 round higher.

I'm also surprised by Devon Still in the middle of 2. That changes the way I'd think about the draft.

 

[Eskimo]

I can't recall the last time we've seen a draft this deep in first round talent. 2008 would probably be the last year, I think.

Yes, the talent is deep - I don't disagree that the bottom of the first round looks good. However, that deepness also extends into the second and third rounds.

For example, I don't prefer Upshaw and Hightower over Irvin, Curry and McClellin.

I don't prefer Kirkpatrick over Heyward and Trumaine Johnson.

I don't prefer Glenn over Silatolu and Brooks.

I don't prefer Brockers and Poe over Reyes and Crick.

I do like Barron over Harrison Smith and Iloka but not enough that I want to draft him at #14.

This is why I think a trade down makes good sense for us in this draft. We can get extra picks by dropping down without losing much in the way of quality.

I also like having drafts with two first rounders - it gives you a ton of flexibility. The mistake we've made in the past with this strategy is we haven't moved around much to create future value for ourselves. I also think with the abuse Romo has taken we have to seriously consider preparing for a future without him. I will be surprised if he is still healthy in 2015.

 

[cowboysooner]

With Coples, McClellan and Crick available

1) Coples
2) Janoris Jenkins
3) Shea McClellan
4) Joe Adams
4c)Jared Crick
5)Kelcie McCray
6) Quinton Saulsberry
7)Emmannuel Acho

Without Coples, McClellan and Crick available in the PFW round

1) Brockers or Barron
2) Brandon Brooks (Note: I'd try to trade down from here to the top of 3rd/bottom 2)
3) Bruce Irvin
4) Markelle Martin
5) Chase Minnefield
6) Juron Criner
7) Cliff Harris

 

[Hoofbite]

The cool part about the draft is that many teams could be giving feedback about a player that makes it seem like he should go later.

I don't think McClellan lasts until the 3rd round at all.

Mayock was saying a team could be perfectly fine taking him at the end of round 1.

 

[RamziD]

Boy, you can just see JJ working the phones to trade back in the second and get an extra pick. I think the goal would be to draft Bruce Irvin at the end of Rd. 2 and pick up a late 3rd in the process.

Edit: And it that scenario, I would be fine wit Barron, Irvin, Broyles, and Blake in the top 3 rounds.

 

[Leadbelly]

I hunted down their 2011's chart...

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/04/06/pfws-exclusive-draft-value-chart-4

They had a few big misses but it's pretty accurate. I was expecting to be able to tear it down.

When they miss in round 1 or 2, it's usually just by the next tier (1B vs 1C). By round 3, it is more like 2 tiers (3C vs 4B). In the first two rounds, here were the only misses greater than 1 tier...

MOVED UP - 10
Christian Ponder went 1B vs 2A
James Carpenter went 1C vs 2B

Colin Kaepernick went 2A vs 3A
Brooks Reed went 2A vs 3A
Bruce Carter went 2A vs 2C
Ben Ijalana went 2B vs 3C
Stefen Wisniewski went 2B vs 4C
Orlando Franklin went 2B vs 3B
Marcus Gilchrist went 2B vs 3C
Jonas Mouton went 2C vs unlisted


MOVED DOWN - 9
Aaron Williams went 2A vs 1B
Da'Quan Bowers went 2B vs 1C
Stephen Paea went 2B vs 1C
Randall Cobb went 2C vs 2A

Allen Bailey went 3C vs 2C
Johnny Patrick went 3C vs 2C
Christian Ballard went 4A vs 2A
Clint Boling went 4A vs 2C
Dion Lewis went 5B vs 2C


A few guys dropped big and I didn't count them -- late drug concern (justin houston), or there was a medical issue (marcus cannon and virgil green). Pretty dang accurate. By Day 3, it becomes very hit or miss.

Assuming their sources are similar in 2012, it seems plausible that McClellin can jump up to 2C...maybe 2B...but jumping to 1C would be a shocker. Small sample size, but PFW was very accurate for round 1 in 2011.

 

[funkytown]

Assuming their sources are similar in 2012, it seems plausible that McClellin can jump up to 2C...maybe 2B...but jumping to 1C would be a shocker. Small sample size, but PFW was very accurate for round 1 in 2011.

I'm sure they will publish another one much closer to the draft. I expect that one to be as accurate as last years.

 

[SDogo]

I hunted down their 2011's chart...

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/04/06/pfws-exclusive-draft-value-chart-4

They had a few big misses but it's pretty accurate. I was expecting to be able to tear it down.

When they miss in round 1 or 2, it's usually just by the next tier (1B vs 1C). By round 3, it is more like 2 tiers (3C vs 4B). In the first two rounds, here were the only misses greater than 1 tier...

MOVED UP - 10
Christian Ponder went 1B vs 2A
James Carpenter went 1C vs 2B

Colin Kaepernick went 2A vs 3A
Brooks Reed went 2A vs 3A
Bruce Carter went 2A vs 2C
Ben Ijalana went 2B vs 3C
Stefen Wisniewski went 2B vs 4C
Orlando Franklin went 2B vs 3B
Marcus Gilchrist went 2B vs 3C
Jonas Mouton went 2C vs unlisted


MOVED DOWN - 9
Aaron Williams went 2A vs 1B
Da'Quan Bowers went 2B vs 1C
Stephen Paea went 2B vs 1C
Randall Cobb went 2C vs 2A

Allen Bailey went 3C vs 2C
Johnny Patrick went 3C vs 2C
Christian Ballard went 4A vs 2A
Clint Boling went 4A vs 2C
Dion Lewis went 5B vs 2C


A few guys dropped big and I didn't count them -- late drug concern (justin houston), or there was a medical issue (marcus cannon and virgil green). Pretty dang accurate. By Day 3, it becomes very hit or miss.

Assuming their sources are similar in 2012, it seems plausible that McClellin can jump up to 2C...maybe 2B...but jumping to 1C would be a shocker. Small sample size, but PFW was very accurate for round 1 in 2011.

There is a reason I have been saying in previous posts to keep an eye on this kid running the draft room over there. If everything goes as planned he is on the fast track to a NFL FO, seriously could be looking at the NFL's version of Theo Epstein

 

[Hoofbite]

There is a reason I have been saying in previous posts to keep an eye on this kid running the draft room over there. If everything goes as planned he is on the fast track to a NFL FO, seriously could be looking at the NFL's version of Theo Epstein

Isn't he just compiling the feelings around the league?

 

[SDogo]

Isn't he just compiling the feelings around the league?

He does, he is well connected but the scouting reports for the most part are all his own work and if you look at their rankings and grading scales those are done as the process unfolds. Really there are only a few slight changes from what I have seen between this board they released and what they have been giving out up to this release.

They did some obvious adjustments on a few players from what I can tell but for the most part if this board is what they say it is and a compiling on information then they have done a hell of a job keeping pace.

 

[jterrell]

very cool tool as we look at guys.

anytime you have a consensus value some players will go higher and others will fall. just the way the dominoes fall come draft day.