SaltwaterServr
Blank Paper Offends Me
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Prior to our first game this season, someone put up stats that showed Philly lives and dies by the big play. I think it was originally more along the lines of they couldn't sustain drives that started at their own 35 yard line or worse.
Keeping that in mind, I found my notes for that week and decided to revisit the issue. Philly has played 7 games since we played them and I've gone through and charted each of their drives starting at their 35 or worse. Actually, I fibbed and included 3 that started at their own 36.
In those drives, I looked at starting position, result of the drive, and any play over 20 yards whether it be real gain or gain by penalty.
Summarization: Philly had 61 possessions in their 7 games that started at their 36 or worse.
Of those 61 possessions:
So let's pull those 2 end of game drives out.
59 remaining possessions, 21 scores. 35% scoring rate, 20 percent by touchdown and 15% by field goal. 1 in 3 drives scores with a long field.
Now, go a bit inside the numbers. Like I said, I noted any plays of longer than 20 yards on their drives. I'll give you these game by game:
San Diego
5 - Punt
25 - punt
36 punt
22 (22 and 27 yard play) field goal
6 - Field goal
23 punt
16 (58 yard pass) field goal
23 - Touchdown
34 - interception
Chicago
25 (34 yard pass) field goal
24 (21 yard pass) Touchdown
34 (20 yard pass) punt
20 - interception
32 punt
36 (48 yard pass) Touchdown
29 - Punt
19 - Fumble
19 - end of game (discarded drive)
Washington
21 (19, 15, and 18 yard pass) field goal
20 punt
11 punt
20 punt
21 punt
20 punt
10 interception
10 (46, 20 yard pass) Touchdown
20 (35 yard pass) Field Goal
Atlanta
8 (59 yard pass) Missed Field Goal
2 punt
29 (56 yard pass) field goal
9 punt
20 Touchdown
32 punt
NY Giants
33 (32 yard pass) Touchdown
31 punt
23 (23 yard pass) Field Goal
30 (44, 23 yard pass) Touchdown
24 Interception
14 punt
33 punt
9 (20, 19 yard passes) Touchdown
San Francisco
18 punt
32 punt
20 Down (I counted it as a punt)
6 (43 yard pass) Touchdown
16 (39 yard pass) Interception
30 Interception
34 Punt
11 (59 yard pass) Touchdown
15 punt
27 End of Game (discarded drive)
Denver
36 Fumble
12 (34 and 47 yard passes) Touchdown
24 (21 yard pass) Field Goal
20 interception
20 (41 yard Pass interference) Touchdown
1 punt
20 punt
20 punt
19 punt
30 punt
Notice anything highlighted? Philly had 4 scoring drives in 59 possessions that didn't include a pass of 20 yards or greater including the drive that had passes of 19, 18 and 15 yards.
Now I'm not a big statistical analysis guy. By my way of looking at things, Philly scoring requires a big play of 20 or more yards to score on 17 of their 59 possessions.
Here's another way to look at it. Only 1 out of 28 drives ending in punts did Philly have a play of 20+ yards, and it was 20 yards exactly.
If Philly cannot get their big plays going in a drive, they stall out. If you look at their last 3 games played, they've not scored at all if they haven't gotten the defense to fall for a big play.
27 possessions between the NY, 49ers, and Denver game, 0 scoring opportunities outside of a big play.
Limit their opportunities on the long ball, and they'll be kicking field goals at best.
Keeping that in mind, I found my notes for that week and decided to revisit the issue. Philly has played 7 games since we played them and I've gone through and charted each of their drives starting at their 35 or worse. Actually, I fibbed and included 3 that started at their own 36.
In those drives, I looked at starting position, result of the drive, and any play over 20 yards whether it be real gain or gain by penalty.
Summarization: Philly had 61 possessions in their 7 games that started at their 36 or worse.
Of those 61 possessions:
- 12 touchdowns
- 9 field goals
- 2 fumbles
- 1 missed field goal
- 7 interceptions
- 2 Victory formations
- 28 punts
So let's pull those 2 end of game drives out.
59 remaining possessions, 21 scores. 35% scoring rate, 20 percent by touchdown and 15% by field goal. 1 in 3 drives scores with a long field.
Now, go a bit inside the numbers. Like I said, I noted any plays of longer than 20 yards on their drives. I'll give you these game by game:
San Diego
5 - Punt
25 - punt
36 punt
22 (22 and 27 yard play) field goal
6 - Field goal
23 punt
16 (58 yard pass) field goal
23 - Touchdown
34 - interception
Chicago
25 (34 yard pass) field goal
24 (21 yard pass) Touchdown
34 (20 yard pass) punt
20 - interception
32 punt
36 (48 yard pass) Touchdown
29 - Punt
19 - Fumble
19 - end of game (discarded drive)
Washington
21 (19, 15, and 18 yard pass) field goal
20 punt
11 punt
20 punt
21 punt
20 punt
10 interception
10 (46, 20 yard pass) Touchdown
20 (35 yard pass) Field Goal
Atlanta
8 (59 yard pass) Missed Field Goal
2 punt
29 (56 yard pass) field goal
9 punt
20 Touchdown
32 punt
NY Giants
33 (32 yard pass) Touchdown
31 punt
23 (23 yard pass) Field Goal
30 (44, 23 yard pass) Touchdown
24 Interception
14 punt
33 punt
9 (20, 19 yard passes) Touchdown
San Francisco
18 punt
32 punt
20 Down (I counted it as a punt)
6 (43 yard pass) Touchdown
16 (39 yard pass) Interception
30 Interception
34 Punt
11 (59 yard pass) Touchdown
15 punt
27 End of Game (discarded drive)
Denver
36 Fumble
12 (34 and 47 yard passes) Touchdown
24 (21 yard pass) Field Goal
20 interception
20 (41 yard Pass interference) Touchdown
1 punt
20 punt
20 punt
19 punt
30 punt
Notice anything highlighted? Philly had 4 scoring drives in 59 possessions that didn't include a pass of 20 yards or greater including the drive that had passes of 19, 18 and 15 yards.
Now I'm not a big statistical analysis guy. By my way of looking at things, Philly scoring requires a big play of 20 or more yards to score on 17 of their 59 possessions.
Here's another way to look at it. Only 1 out of 28 drives ending in punts did Philly have a play of 20+ yards, and it was 20 yards exactly.
If Philly cannot get their big plays going in a drive, they stall out. If you look at their last 3 games played, they've not scored at all if they haven't gotten the defense to fall for a big play.
27 possessions between the NY, 49ers, and Denver game, 0 scoring opportunities outside of a big play.
Limit their opportunities on the long ball, and they'll be kicking field goals at best.
