Pickens appears to be a poor risk

[Diehardblues]

I dunno.
But as I suggested, we should get a decent comp pick on the back end to offset the 3rd.

And keep in mind Tolbert. Picked in the 3rd.

4years of Tolbert or 1 year of Pickens?
Pickens is a difference maker.

I could pick several 3rd round picks we had that wouldn’t be as favorable as Tolberts comparison. Just saying…

 

[Diehardblues]

I think hopeful is the right word and we all have different beliefs. I am sure some homers, think we are going to the SB next year.

Our owner always wants to hype and promote that possibility. And some of these fans follow that rhetoric.

While I suppose there’s always a glimmer of hope until there’s not most fans understand the reality of the situation.

 

[Diehardblues]

Look at the draft trade value chart.

Do you think $100K is worth a $100K next year?

That’s a subjective argument but being an accountant by trade I’d argue it will be very similar in value based on of course inflation.

 

[Diehardblues]

Comp picks are a thing. It’s not part of the trade because it doesn’t happen until a player leaves their team through free agency.

Unless he absolutely sucks and has to sign some terrible deal elsewhere, there *will* be a comp pick.

Yes. But will it be a 3rd. Bottomline for me is if we can’t resign him then it’s a higher risk of losing a 3rd round pick which is usually a starter potential pick for at least 4 years.

I get fans willing to take that risk. It could turn out well. And in the long range of continued futility by our dysfunctional leadership this era it’s likely not to make much difference. But that’s doesn’t mean there are some concerns which deserve criticism.

 

[Diehardblues]

So you’re not even willing to give the guy a chance?

Of course. Like I have said in several post in response. It has the potential of being a good trade. But there are some issues which raise concerns worthy of criticism. I think that’s fair.

 

[Diehardblues]

Well, you gotta look at it from Jerry's POV. We are one player away. One player away from relevance.

Pickens is a good talent. Low end #1/Top tier #2 type. He will change us from a 7-8 win type team to a 9-10 win type team.

And what does Jerry just have to have? Relevance. Pickens makes us a contender to make the playoffs. And that is all Jerry desires. All he knows how to do.

Well said. To Jethro the trade is enough if it provides Cowboys more relevance this year.

Unfortunately our dysfunctional leadership priority doesn’t look ahead. He’s only enthralled in hyping or promoting one season at a time.

 

[Kwyn]

Yes. But will it be a 3rd. Bottomline for me is if we can’t resign him then it’s a higher risk of losing a 3rd round pick which is usually a starter potential pick for at least 4 years.

I get fans willing to take that risk. It could turn out well. And in the long range of continued futility by our dysfunctional leadership this era it’s likely not to make much difference. But that’s doesn’t mean there are some concerns which deserve criticism.

Hey, Cowboys always seem to hold off on pulling the trigger on anything meaningful in free agency or through trades.

I’m just glad to see some effort.

 

[fivetwos]

If you’re basing the idea that Pickens was a poor risk on the draft pick then I don’t agree. If you factor in all the guys on one year prove it deals and the fact that Pickens is in a probe deal then we’re going to receive a lot of comp picks. That will help mitigate the loss of the third. So to me the risk isn’t the draft picks, that’ll be a wash.

For me the real risk/gamble is his behavior and what will that do on the field and in the locker room. Also another risk is if he plays well. Ironically if this works out great we’re almost in a worse spot. If Pickens plays to potential we will have a very potent balanced offense. I would hate to have a very balanced explosive offense for only one year and then have to reload. Personally I would have rather we waited until next year’s draft and use our #1 on a WR and have him for 4-5 years on a rookie deal. Then if we find gold and our offense is balanced we have that offense in place for 4 years.

So the gamble is what happens if he plays very well and we advance in the playoffs. Do we pay him 30-33 million APY or do we start over? To me that’s the gamble. For 2025 I think this was a win for us in the trade. Depending on finances and contracts, it kind of depends how things shake out. I do know that I don’t want to lose Tyler Smith because we have to sign Pickens to 30 million.

So as you can see I’m conflicted on this. I’m happy for 2025 but concerned how it may shake out in the future and I have concerns about behavior issues. The one thing I’m not too concerned about is the 3rd rounder. That will wash itself out moving forward. And we’ve wasted 2nd and 3rds and 4ths. I like the aggressive gamble myself but I don’t like the behavior issues or the last season on contract issue. JMO

I’ve been saying much of the same.

We all know what worst case looks like, but what does BEST case look like? He shuts his mouth, has a sufficient amount of targets (which also might mean they are throwing it more than they want to, which means being behind…just saying) and puts up numbers reasonably close to those of his career.

Then what? He is flirting with #1 money so you’ll get your third back, albeit 23 months later. But you’ll also need to replace him, which essentially forces them into the all too familiar position of having to force a first round position, and now it’s another number one.

Also said yesterday that if you’re willing to part with a third and a fifth, probably could have moved up for the supposed original target…TMac….and had him for five years.

The difference is a starting guard, but they are typically around later and already had some depth there.

I’m babbling by now, but fully agree with best case scenario creating another problem.

Bottom line is if your agenda is winning as many games as possible next year, you love the deal. If you want to open a 2-3 window to have a real potential shot at a deep playoff run once or twice, not so much.

 

[exciter]

And somehow they ended up with 9 picks after making 3 trades.

And those comp picks were for players who left after 2023… you know, the FA period we didn’t do anything?

 

[darealvelle]

If Pickens went to any other team, those teams would be getting praised. But since he is in dallas, its an big question mark smh.

 

[Majic]

I can't imagine any scenario where a 3rd round pick is returned back. Should Pickens have a WR1 type season I think the Cowboys will work out some kind of deal. It's not in their nature to let players leave who might succeed elsewhere based on recent production.

For me it is a gamble stacked against you. I think the likelihood is he leaves after 1 year with question marks still with no team willing to commit to a long-term deal and we get a 5th or 6th back. But no one knows for sure. A 3rd round pick should be a starter for 4 years, I would not have given that up, but that is just me.

 

[Spottswoode]

People are so set in their opinions that they only consider what they feel strengthens their position and discount others.

The most common negative comments are:
- 1 year rental who we will not be able to afford with Lamb’s contract
- A good coach like Tomlin got rid of him because of his attitude
- He is a malcontent and a head case
- No one else wanted him…other teams laughed at bringing him in at any price

The flip side is:
- If he is such a malcontent that no one else would want him, why do we immediately assume he is a 1 year rental because he will be unaffordable. It seems to me you can’t have it both ways.

- If he does end up commanding a big contract and Lamb’s contract is the reason why Dallas can’t afford him, why do some assume the only reason Tomlin traded him was because of his attitude? Didn’t the Steelers just acquire Metcalf and give him an ~$150M contract? Is it not possible that the same math used to suggest a 1 year rental for Dallas also applies to Pittsburg? Would they have made the trade if they hadn’t traded for Metcalf?

- Even if the reason Tomlin traded Pickens was his attitude, is it possible that it had something to do with Tomlin as well? I am no Tomlin expert but he seems to be the kind of person who doesn’t suffer fools gladly. I don’t see him as having tolerance to a lack of discipline and as far as I can tell, most of Pickens issues are related to on the field discipline.

The most common positive comments are:
- Low risk…even if he leaves, we likely get a 3rd back.
- He is in a contract year and will likely be on his best behavior
- We have successfully managed this personality type previously

The flip side is:
- If it is true that other teams have little interest in dealing with his personality and the comp pick is based on the salary he commands, why do we assume he will command the highest level comp pick?

- While I agree that if he has half a brain, he will be on his best behavior, it seems that most of his issues stem from on the field behavior. To me, that points to a problem with impulse control which can be more difficult to correct.

- While true that we have successfully managed this personality type in the past, it is also true that we have a new coach who will need to develop his presence in the room.

That responsibility doesn’t just fall on him, the other coaches and players also play a role. I would bet this might partially explain the comments we heard around looking for leaders or the right players along with the changes in locker assignments.

Some assume trading for Pickens means the comments about getting leaders or the right type of players was lip service. Maybe they are right. But IMO, it’s more likely about creating a room that can help manage those outlier personalities. No franchise is going to have a room full of choirboys. But if you have the right makeup in the room, it becomes much easier to manage those outliers.

At the end of the day, this is a calculated risk. Personally I like potential reward relative to the risk but it is fair to feel differently. What I find tiresome is constant arguing by either side while only using the points that support your side without acknowledging that there is an equally valid counterpoint to that opinion.

 

[Tussinman]

Yes. But will it be a 3rd. Bottomline for me is if we can’t resign him then it’s a higher risk of losing a 3rd round pick which is usually a starter potential pick for at least 4 years.

Very good chance it won't be a 3rd. The absolute bottom comp 3rd for next year is projected to be Milton Williams who signed 4 years 104 million.

3rds are really hard to get, you usually have to lose a top dollar free agent. Last time cowboys got one was with Byron Jones who signed 82 million 5 years ago (which would be 100+ in today's dollars).

 

[rambo2]

And those comp picks were for players who left after 2023… you know, the FA period we didn’t do anything?

This offseason has been awesome.

 

[Rockport]

Of course. Like I have said in several post in response. It has the potential of being a good trade. But there are some issues which raise concerns worthy of criticism. I think that’s fair.

No it’s not fair when you do it anytime the Cowboys make a move.

 

[KMY_Amber]

True , but is it worth the risk for one season , assuming it’s not a playoff season, giving up a 3rd round pick.

Now if we end up resigning Pickens and he’s our #2 for years to come then it’s a sweet deal.

That verdict will be out. And why there’s some red flags all basically surrounding his mental attitudes thus far and contract situation. Nothing to do with his talent .

Yes, it's worth the risk...assuming the Cowboys believe this is a playoff season.

If the Cowboys are rebuilding, then, a full rebuild should occur.

 

[Diehardblues]

Yes, it's worth the risk...assuming the Cowboys believe this is a playoff season.

If the Cowboys are rebuilding, then, a full rebuild should occur.

Jethro always hyped and promotes each season as a potential contender or playoff season. He’s never going to say it’s a rebuild.

But most fans probably don’t think this is a playoff season.

 

[Diehardblues]

No it’s not fair when you do it anytime the Cowboys make a move.

That’s what fans , journalist and the media do whenever there is action taken. They critique or cover the story. Not sure why that isn’t expected.

 

[Diehardblues]

This offseason has been awesome.

That’s a matter of opinion and until the results come in is arguable . Time will tell how well we did. And if the results are favorable the offseason moves and drafts will be applauded.

I understand some fans like to stand up and cheer before the play is snapped but most wait until the results come in.

 

[Diehardblues]

Hey, Cowboys always seem to hold off on pulling the trigger on anything meaningful in free agency or through trades.

I’m just glad to see some effort.

And I think this is why some fans are excited. They’d prefer taking a risk than doing nothing.

I get it. And he’s a solid talent . Could be a great deal. But the baggage he carries and potential of not resigning him raises the red flags.