Players who've risen too far

[jterrell]

Every year there are guys who are somewhat overlooked and because of that bloggers and couch scout types fall in love with them and boost them well beyond the natural range.

This year a few jump out at me.

I'll await the inevitable anger now.

1. Marcus Davenport. First example is one I am super guilty of myself. IF there is a Demarcus Ware in this class it is Davenport. Because of that lots of folks are pushing him up to top 10. BUT.. if he is to be Ware it will be a process. Davenport is more raw than even Ware was coming out and is less violent in his play. Really high upside but we've got to see if he can add strength and hold a bit more weight naturally. What he benches at the combine actually interests me for once. I really like Davenport but 15-20 is high water mark for him IMHO.

2. Isaiah Wynn. Example one of this phenomena IMHO. Wynn was a super stud at LT for Georgia. He out-quicked guys, he out-muscled them. He flat just blocked everything. But end of day Wynn is 6'2" and 300 pounds AND you are moving him inside to OG. He is a very good player but testing him versus collegiate pass rushers is very different than testing him versus elite DT. Can he anchor versus Fletcher Cox? Because that's his job day 1 (no seriously I expect the opener to be versus the Eagles) if Dallas drafts him at 19. 300 is really light for an OG. Wynn is a really good player but he's about 15-20 pounds light of RD1 IMHO. Wynn is likely as good as you will see in a rookie OG buy if he can't handle more weight he's not going to fit every running scheme and will struggle versus the behemoth DT out there. I'd say he is a pick around 35-45.

3. Mike Hughes. Hughes is a freak physically and he can play the type of press man cover few guys can. He's long but quick and fast. And strong. He has all these tools. But keep in mind he was kicked out of a P5 school and is a weird cat. Maybe he is just a character but also loves football and will never be more than odd. But I'd be interviewing him for sure and doing background before I considered him at 19. Think he's a legit Round 2 guy.

4. Courtland Sutton. Ok Sutton is an odd one. He may have been overrated all along and I am not sure why. He was never the most productive WR on his own team. And he didn't exactly play at Clemson or something. He is a tools guy that you are hoping can be coached into productivity.

5. Baker Mayfield. Baker has a certainty and swagger to him. Teammates LOVE this dude. But he's also a 6 foot and change gunslinger who is at best a shorter Tony Romo. He can be a bit loose with the ball and he runs around trying to keep plays alive. He will "compete" in the media offering up bulletin board material. He's also an Air Raid guy and it's all he's run going back to High School. He's a very nice prospect but not sure I'd commit Round 1 resources to him at QB.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

I like this topic and I feel you hit the nail on the head with #1. I like Davenport and wanted him in the 3rd as a project DE early on, now this top 10 overall hype is absolutely ridoculous. I saw him go 7th in a mock today. I feel he is more of a mid-2nd rounder.

I gave you praise, but I'll also say that I disagree with Wynn & Mayfield. Hell some are still mocking Baker after Josh Allen, which is lunacy to me.

I'll give some of my own. Tremaine Edmunds-I like him, hes young, hes fast, hes huge, hes good out in space, but I dont see him as a top 15 player or better than Roquan. There's a lot more projection to his evaluation than I'd like in a top 15 player, and many are mocking him in the top 5-10.

Ive already hit on Josh Allen. He has a top 5 pick QB body and athleticism, with UDFA decision making ans accuracy.

Orlando Brown is my last one. He's more of a bottom 2nd rounder to me than a 1st rounder. Doesnt play with technique, more so raw strength which will be tougher at the next level.

 

[tm1119]

Good discussion but probably a little early. Rankings are so inconsistent at this point that it’s hard to say who is ranked where. The real test will be after the combine....that’s when the Byron Jones’ of the world emerge .

But I will say that both Davenport and Edmunds are probably spot on. Both look like 2nd round picks to me...

 

[TheCoolFan]

Mayfield for sure. Productive college QB, sure but still a project at the next level and I wouldn't draft a project in the Top-20 or even the entire 1st round. But looks like he is going to be a Top-10 pick, maybe even Top-5

 

[Centex]

That's a good list. I would add Ogbonnia Okoronkwo.

 

[rkell87]

Every year there are guys who are somewhat overlooked and because of that bloggers and couch scout types fall in love with them and boost them well beyond the natural range.

This year a few jump out at me.

I'll await the inevitable anger now.

1. Marcus Davenport. First example is one I am super guilty of myself. IF there is a Demarcus Ware in this class it is Davenport. Because of that lots of folks are pushing him up to top 10. BUT.. if he is to be Ware it will be a process. Davenport is more raw than even Ware was coming out and is less violent in his play. Really high upside but we've got to see if he can add strength and hold a bit more weight naturally. What he benches at the combine actually interests me for once. I really like Davenport but 15-20 is high water mark for him IMHO.

2. Isaiah Wynn. Example one of this phenomena IMHO. Wynn was a super stud at LT for Georgia. He out-quicked guys, he out-muscled them. He flat just blocked everything. But end of day Wynn is 6'2" and 300 pounds AND you are moving him inside to OG. He is a very good player but testing him versus collegiate pass rushers is very different than testing him versus elite DT. Can he anchor versus Fletcher Cox? Because that's his job day 1 (no seriously I expect the opener to be versus the Eagles) if Dallas drafts him at 19. 300 is really light for an OG. Wynn is a really good player but he's about 15-20 pounds light of RD1 IMHO. Wynn is likely as good as you will see in a rookie OG buy if he can't handle more weight he's not going to fit every running scheme and will struggle versus the behemoth DT out there. I'd say he is a pick around 35-45.

3. Mike Hughes. Hughes is a freak physically and he can play the type of press man cover few guys can. He's long but quick and fast. And strong. He has all these tools. But keep in mind he was kicked out of a P5 school and is a weird cat. Maybe he is just a character but also loves football and will never be more than odd. But I'd be interviewing him for sure and doing background before I considered him at 19. Think he's a legit Round 2 guy.

4. Courtland Sutton. Ok Sutton is an odd one. He may have been overrated all along and I am not sure why. He was never the most productive WR on his own team. And he didn't exactly play at Clemson or something. He is a tools guy that you are hoping can be coached into productivity.

5. Baker Mayfield. Baker has a certainty and swagger to him. Teammates LOVE this dude. But he's also a 6 foot and change gunslinger who is at best a shorter Tony Romo. He can be a bit loose with the ball and he runs around trying to keep plays alive. He will "compete" in the media offering up bulletin board material. He's also an Air Raid guy and it's all he's run going back to High School. He's a very nice prospect but not sure I'd commit Round 1 resources to him at QB.

I think you are right on all points but freaking nailed Sutton, guy looks like a 3rd round and hope he develops type.

 

[cowboyec]

Quenton Nelson,G-Notre Dame is too high....I think 19 suits him just fine.

 

[Paintrain4978]

Unfortunately, I think after the Combine, Vea will be out of reach at 19. Some team is going to fall in love with his athleticism especially at his size.

 

[cnuball21]

Davenport is the most overrated prospect in the draft IMO.

I think it's laughable if teams take Allen early in the 1st as well - Hackenberg all over again.

A few others would be Ridley in the top 10 (#2 ceiling for me), Kirk in the 1st (more athlete than football player) and Josh Jackson in the 1st (limited athlete).

 

[Aven8]

I will add some.

Rosen- he couldn't even carry UCLA in the lousy PAC 12.

Darnold- a TO machine.

Half these top prospects, not just these QB's, will still be sitting on draft night and everyone will be like, I can't believe such and such is still on the board! The media and these so called draft gurus pump players up, but the NFL isn't stupid and they know where they should go come draft night.

 

[Paintrain4978]

QB is the easy answer. They get overvalued every year.

I think this year another position that teams will reach for is pass rusher. Chubb is the clearly the best, but teams will reach because every team needs more pass rush help. Some more than others.

 

[McKDaddy]

Unfortunately, I think after the Combine, Vea will be out of reach at 19. Some team is going to fall in love with his athleticism especially at his size.

That's not over reaching that's just good talent evaluation.

 

[Paintrain4978]

That's not over reaching that's just good talent evaluation.

See that now, misunderstood the thread. Thats what i get for skimming lol

 

[Bigdog]

Quenton Nelson,G-Notre Dame is too high....I think 19 suits him just fine.

I agree. Now if we can just get the 18 teams in front of us to think the same.

 

[cowboyec]

I agree. Now if we can just get the 18 teams in front of us to think the same.

 

[OUCowboy]

5. Baker Mayfield. Baker has a certainty and swagger to him. Teammates LOVE this dude. But he's also a 6 foot and change gunslinger who is at best a shorter Tony Romo. He can be a bit loose with the ball and he runs around trying to keep plays alive. He will "compete" in the media offering up bulletin board material. He's also an Air Raid guy and it's all he's run going back to High School. He's a very nice prospect but not sure I'd commit Round 1 resources to him at QB.

No anger here, but I think you are selling Baker a bit short. He has plenty of arm strength and is accurate on his throws. One pass against Texas last year traveled over 60 yards in the air and was placed perfectly to clear the trailing DB and allow the receiver to catch the ball in stride as he was crossing the goal line.

And I would be interested in knowing how you classify him as being "a bit loose with the ball". He throws very few interceptions and hasn't been guilty of a ton of fumbles.

I'm not advocating for Dallas to draft him, but I think his body of work in college should be proof of what he is capable of. Yes, I know he had the one incident in Arkansas and then the crotch grabbing against Kansas last year. I think the incident in Arkansas concerns me much more than what happened in Kansas. He was taunted by the players, right from the coin toss. He responded in kind, right or wrong, but he received the bulk of the blame.

Personally, I think Baker is going to make some NFL team a great QB. I just hope it's not in the NFC East.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...e-numbers-say-he-should-be-no-1-overall-pick?

 

[beware_d-ware]

Roquon Smith. Looks like a great run-and-hit Will prospect, but the top 10 talk blows my mind. He can't take on blocks, he just runs around blockers.

 

[jterrell]

I like this topic and I feel you hit the nail on the head with #1. I like Davenport and wanted him in the 3rd as a project DE early on, now this top 10 overall hype is absolutely ridoculous. I saw him go 7th in a mock today. I feel he is more of a mid-2nd rounder.

I gave you praise, but I'll also say that I disagree with Wynn & Mayfield. Hell some are still mocking Baker after Josh Allen, which is lunacy to me.

I'll give some of my own. Tremaine Edmunds-I like him, hes young, hes fast, hes huge, hes good out in space, but I dont see him as a top 15 player or better than Roquan. There's a lot more projection to his evaluation than I'd like in a top 15 player, and many are mocking him in the top 5-10.

Ive already hit on Josh Allen. He has a top 5 pick QB body and athleticism, with UDFA decision making ans accuracy.

Orlando Brown is my last one. He's more of a bottom 2nd rounder to me than a 1st rounder. Doesnt play with technique, more so raw strength which will be tougher at the next level.

Thanks for the reply and yes of course there will be disagreements.

Quick thoughts on your guys:
Trumaine Edwards: I like him more than Roquan Smith. To me he is a legit NFL LB at 6"5" and 250. Roquan is 6'1" and 225.
Dallas has a super stud that's 6'2" and 230 and he can't stay healthy in this league at that size. I worry about Roquan having the same issues.
So I wouldn't draft him top 15.
To me, Edwards is an ideal Dallas pick at 19. You start him at the SAM and let him rush on 3rd downs. He had 3 forced fumbles last year speaking to the pop he delivers.
I also think the NFL going back to power running and less air it out stuff.

Orlando Brown: Oddly I think Brown is underrated. He reminds me quite alot of SB Champion and former OU OT Lane Johnson. He is a monster dude and needs to clean up technique but he can road grade and he is hard to get around. He rolled Georgia guys in the 1st half. In the 2nd they attacked OU other ways with stunts and blitzes. I don;t love his fit for Dallas but think he is a legit late 1st that often mocked round 2 or 3.

Allen is a complete and total project. Someone is going to take he risk on him but yes round 1 is crazy time.
I wouldn't touch Baker or Josh Allen in round 1. If you could marry the best traits of both then he'd the top overall player man they have serious weaknesses.

 

[EPL0c0]

Will Hernandez G (UTEP). The guy is STARVING for a win. (UTEP went 0-12 in 2016 & his team lost the Senior Bowl).

Very aggressive on the field. Excellent run blocker, and showed he can pull as well. He says he modelled his play after Incognito and he plays w/ that mean streak.

He's a VERY hard worker. The OL guys in Dallas would take to him as quickly as he to them.

 

[jterrell]

No anger here, but I think you are selling Baker a bit short. He has plenty of arm strength and is accurate on his throws. One pass against Texas last year traveled over 60 yards in the air and was placed perfectly to clear the trailing DB and allow the receiver to catch the ball in stride as he was crossing the goal line.

And I would be interested in knowing how you classify him as being "a bit loose with the ball". He throws very few interceptions and hasn't been guilty of a ton of fumbles.

I'm not advocating for Dallas to draft him, but I think his body of work in college should be proof of what he is capable of. Yes, I know he had the one incident in Arkansas and then the crotch grabbing against Kansas last year. I think the incident in Arkansas concerns me much more than what happened in Kansas. He was taunted by the players, right from the coin toss. He responded in kind, right or wrong, but he received the bulk of the blame.

Personally, I think Baker is going to make some NFL team a great QB. I just hope it's not in the NFC East.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...e-numbers-say-he-should-be-no-1-overall-pick?

Appreciate the discussion. First, Mayfeild was easily the best college football player in the country last year. It really wasn't close.
And his accuracy has grown immeasurably but he also plays in a super completion percentage offense. Baker led the country in both throws over 20 yards down the field and under 5 yards. That kinda speaks to how few traditional NFL throws he made of 6 to 20 yards.

Arm Strength: While at Tech; Mayfield had visibly less arm strength than Webb Davis. He was more accurate but less arm strength.
As he progressed his arm did get stronger and it's to the point of average NFL arm but it's not a cannon or anything close by NFL standards.
That's not a huge knock as he has a lot more arm Dak Prescott.

"Loose": Baker will emulate Tony Romo a lot. He will run around, spin, shrug off defenders et al to keep plays alive. And this is why he fumbled 22 times as collegiate QB. 9 the last two years. It's not hit on as much because OU didn't lose many of them.But he also had a top 3 OL at OU. That group was good to great yearly.

The OU OL factor: In the 1st half versus Georgia you saw that OU OL dominate and roll Georgia. It was a literal beating. And Baker looked like a kid having fun with his buddies putting up a zillion points. That second half and OT? UGLY. Baker was responsible for 7 points. 3 were in OT on a FG where they didn't do much at all. 7 were off a defensive score. So I'm very concerned about what Baker can do if the OL isn't a really good group. Basic cover 2 up top with some man press underneath to take away swings and screens and can he beat you on intermediate stuff? Not versus Georgia he couldn't.

So, I'd say legit knocks are around the offense he's run, his maturity/cockiness and his size. To me that removes him as an R1 guy.
It won't for the NFL but I suspect any team taking him top 10 will mightily regret it at some point even if he eventually is a really good QB for someone down the line.