Playoff odds

[AdamJT13]

I know of three different sites that project/simulate the rest of the season to determine each team's chances of making the playoffs. According to them, we have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 40 percent chance of winning the division.




http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Football Outsiders, which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, has us with a 77.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 42.4 percent chance of winning the division. (And an 18.1 percent chance of reaching the NFC title game, a 7.9 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl and a 3.9 percent chance of winning it.)




http://accuscore.com/nfl/tools/team-win-forecasts

Accuscore projects us to finish 10-6, with a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 39 percent chance of winning the division.




http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

Playoffstatus.com has us with a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 38 percent chance of winning the division.

 

[Temo]

Sounds about right. I know FO's stats includes strength of schedule. Do the others?

 

[Rampage]

I don't see how we can get in at 10-6 unless Philly and New York just forget how to play football.

 

[Temo]

I don't see how we can get in at 10-6 unless Philly and New York just forget how to play football.

If we had 10 wins, we'd need the Giants to finish 3-1, AND the packers, Eagles, and Cardinals to all go at least 2-2.

If just one of those 3 teams goes 1-3, we're in with 10 wins. Or if the Giants go 2-2.

Also even if the Eagles and Cards go 2-2, it'd come down to tie breakers. We could get the straight-up tie breaker on the Eagles, or the triple-team-tie division tie breaker on both teams depending on how our division record looks after the 'Skins and Eagles games.

Suffice to say that 10 wins should get us in and 11 will lock it up. 9 wins has an outside shot.

 

[Rampage]

If we had 10 wins, we'd need the Giants to finish 3-1, AND the packers, Eagles, and Cardinals to all go at least 2-2.

If just one of those 3 teams goes 1-3, we're in with 10 wins. Or if the Giants go 2-2.

that's about as likely to happen as me winning the lottery.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

I don't see how we can get in at 10-6 unless Philly and New York just forget how to play football.

You mean like the Giants did when they lost 5 of 6?

 

[reddyuta]

it would just devastate me if we finish with 10 wins and dont make the playoffs.

 

[Temo]

that's about as likely to happen as me winning the lottery.

Kind of confused. I was saying that's what would need to happen for us to MISS the playoffs. If one of those teams doesn't go at least 2-2 WHILE the Giants go 3-1, we're in with 10 wins.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

If we had 10 wins, we'd need the Giants to finish 3-1, AND the packers, Eagles, and Cardinals to all go at least 2-2.

If just one of those 3 teams goes 1-3, we're in with 10 wins. Or if the Giants go 2-2.

Also even if the Eagles and Cards go 2-2, it'd come down to tie breakers. We could get the straight-up tie breaker on the Eagles, or the triple-team-tie division tie breaker on both teams depending on how our division record looks after the 'Skins and Eagles games.

Suffice to say that 10 wins should get us in and 11 will lock it up. 9 wins has an outside shot.

Cardinals are irrelevant given they will win the division.

 

[InmanRoshi]

You mean like the Giants did when they lost 5 of 6?

Yeah, I'm not really worried about the Giants. They have to go 3-1 in their final four games to even have a dream of the playoffs. Their problems over the last 2 months didn't just magically disappear. They were still dominated by us in virtually every statistical category. They still have to face the Eagles on Sunday, the Vikings on the road.

They won their "playoff game" on Sunday.

 

[Rampage]

Kind of confused. I was saying that's what would need to happen for us to MISS the playoffs. If one of those teams doesn't go at least 2-2 WHILE the Giants go 3-1, we're in with 10 wins.

1st off Arizona doesn't matter.

2nd Green Bay will get a wildcard

3rd the Eagles are gonna win the division unless we finish 11-5 and beat them in the final regular season game.

4th if we finish at 10-6 and the Giants finish at 10-6(if they go 3-1 over the last 4 games) we're not gonna make it.

 

[AdamJT13]

I don't see how we can get in at 10-6 unless Philly and New York just forget how to play football.

If the Giants lose to the Eagles and lose to the Vikings, 10-6 gets us in.

Or if the Eagles lose to EITHER the Giants or Broncos and lose to us, 10-6 gets us in if we beat the Commanders.

Is it really that big of a stretch to see the Eagles losing to either the 7-5 Giants or 8-4 Broncos? Or to see the Giants losing to the 10-2 Vikings?

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Adam, how do the Cowboys' chances the division compare against other NFC East teams?

 

[Hoofbite]

Any sort of history on the quality of these odds makers?

 

[Rampage]

If the Giants lose to the Eagles and lose to the Vikings, 10-6 gets us in.

Or if the Eagles lose to EITHER the Giants or Broncos and lose to us, 10-6 gets us in if we beat the Commanders.

Is it really that big of a stretch to see the Eagles losing to either the 7-5 Giants or 8-4 Broncos? Or to see the Giants losing to the 10-2 Vikings?

the Vikings are most likely gonna be resting players in week 17.

I'll be suprised if Philly loses to either Denver or NY.

 

[InmanRoshi]

Has there ever been a time in NFL history post-realignment where three teams in the same division have finished 10-6 or better?

Seems pretty unlikely to me.

 

[Bleu Star]

I know of three different sites that project/simulate the rest of the season to determine each team's chances of making the playoffs. According to them, we have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 40 percent chance of winning the division.




http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Football Outsiders, which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times, has us with a 77.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 42.4 percent chance of winning the division. (And an 18.1 percent chance of reaching the NFC title game, a 7.9 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl and a 3.9 percent chance of winning it.)




http://accuscore.com/nfl/tools/team-win-forecasts

Accuscore projects us to finish 10-6, with a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 39 percent chance of winning the division.




http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

Playoffstatus.com has us with a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 38 percent chance of winning the division.

Since I know no one here would be content with just making the playoffs and being 1 & done... It seems the more important stats is: what are the odds on us getting a playoff win?

 

[InmanRoshi]

I imagine that's pretty impossible to predict until you know who the playoff opponent is.

 

[Bleu Star]

Adam can do it. He's pretty special (& I don't mean short bus special). Adam is a MACHINE.

 

[SDogo]

I got a great idea.

How about the Cowboys take care of their own ****ing business for once and we dont need to worry about what anyone else does!

It makes me sick sitting here watching everyone try and predict what other teams have to lose or win to help our sorry *** get into the playoff's.

Bottom line, Cowboys grow a pair and man up in December it wont matter what the other 31 teams do.

Everyone wants a gift, no one wants to earn it.