Playoff Probability Leverage for Week 12

[percyhoward]

According to Brian Burke, a win tomorrow gives the Cowboys a 100% chance of making the playoffs. A loss takes that down to 98.4%,

 

[CATCH17]

Nice!


We're playing for that week off and homefield though.

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

I don't believe this

 

[jazzcat22]

A win puts us at more than 99%, a loss to 96%.
Currently at 98% to make the playoffs.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/cowboyswhatif.html
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

Magic numbers
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcwinmagicnumbers.html for winning to clinch
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfclosemagicnumbers.html for losing to be eliminated or still win a spot

Like Dallas is at MW...meaning if they lose the rest of their games, they still may get a playoff spot.

 

[DallasInDC]

1.6% chance we wont make the playoffs if we lose?!?!? That definitely makes this a must win game!!

Seriously though,the fact tthaa cowboys win drops the skins to below 50% probability is enough of reason to consider this a must win game. I do not want to see any NFC East teams in the playoffs. I don't like the idea of facing the same team three times in a season.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It's not really 100% (we won't have clinched anything). Even with a win tomorrow, it's still possible for the Cowboys to finish last in the NFCE.

 

[Hawkeye19]

Nice!


We're playing for that week off and homefield though.

Yup... Unbelievable regular season so far.

Obviously we want HFA-- but tbh, going on the road doesn't mean we're screwed. Even if Seattle were to win the #1 seed, I wouldn't count this Dallas team out. This team rises to the challenge, and a good ground game always travels well.

 

[jazzcat22]

With a win tomorrow, this is what we need to happen elsewhere.

Vikings and Lions game has no impact on us.
Rams and Saints game has no impact either, however if we win, one of these teams will be out of contention vs. us for a playoff spot. the other on the brink of being out.
Falcons and Cardinals, a Cardinals loss will put them out as well.
Buccaneers and Seahawks, of course we want TB to win, for HFA implications. But if not, then TB wil be on the verge of being eliminated vs us also.
Raiders and Panthers, a Panthers loss eliminates them from contention with us also.
Browns and giants, of course we want the Browns to win
Packers and Eagles, same here, want GB to win.

All this would be great, but we really need to win. Then since the Bears and 49ers are out, then 3 more teams can be out, and 3 more being one game away from being out.
That can be 8 teams of 10 needing to be eliminated vs. us for a playoff spot.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

As i've said. If we get to 10 wins we will make the playoffs. It's mathematically possible to design a scenario where that doesnt' happen...but it's incredibly silly. We'd have to lose out and almost every other thing would have to go very poorly for us.

 

[JD_KaPow]

As i've said. If we get to 10 wins we will make the playoffs. It's mathematically possible to design a scenario where that doesnt' happen...but it's incredibly silly. We'd have to lose out and almost every other thing would have to go very poorly for us.

Yeah, this doesn't look like the year for a 10-win team not to make the playoffs. Through 10 games, only 3 NFC teams have 7 wins.

 

[vicjagger]

Some people cannot differentiate between possibility and probability.

 

[T-RO]

I don't believe this

10-6 = One of two Wild Card spots

 

[windjc]

Some people cannot differentiate between possibility and probability.

+1

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Yeah, this doesn't look like the year for a 10-win team not to make the playoffs. Through 10 games, only 3 NFC teams have 7 wins.

Exactly right.

 

[THEHEREAFTER]

Are we really discussing clinching scenarios?

 

[dogunwo]

As i've said. If we get to 10 wins we will make the playoffs. It's mathematically possible to design a scenario where that doesnt' happen...but it's incredibly silly. We'd have to lose out and almost every other thing would have to go very poorly for us.

If that's true, then 10 wins shouldn't be 100% playoff berth as the original post states.

 

[JD_KaPow]

If that's true, then 10 wins shouldn't be 100% playoff berth as the original post states.

It's not. Probably rounds to 100%, but we won't clinch anything by beating the 'Skins.

 

[jobberone]

It's not. Probably rounds to 100%, but we won't clinch anything by beating the 'Skins.

It's probability of making the playoffs not clinching a playoff berth.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It's probability of making the playoffs not clinching a playoff berth.

They're identical at 100%. The probability of reaching the playoffs hits 100% when and only when you clinch a playoff spot. I assume the actual number is 99.5% or so, and it's rounded to 100%.

 

[jobberone]

They're identical at 100%. The probability of reaching the playoffs hits 100% when and only when you clinch a playoff spot. I assume the actual number is 99.5% or so, and it's rounded to 100%.

Probability and certainty are defined differently. You may consider perusing magic numbers to clinch etc.