Playoff Scenarios

djmajestik

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Apologies if this was posted, frequent reader, infrequent poster, didn't see anything like this and was bored, so here goes.

I did some scenarios to see what we would need to have happen to win the division, with 0, 1, 2, 3 wins.

Dallas
Record: 8-5
Division: 3-2
Conference: 6-3
Games: @wash, @car, rams

Skins
Record: 7-6
Division: 2-1
Conference: 7-2
Games: Dall, Gints, @philly

Gints
Record: 9-4
Division: 4-1
Conference: 8-3
Games: kc, @wash, @oak

0 wins:
We cannot win the division with 0 wins (obviously).

1 win:
If we only beat either the rams or carolina, we would lose out because of head to head with either the skins or the gints. If we only beat wash, even if the Gints lose out they would own the Head to head against us (we would have the same record of 9-7).

2 wins:
If our 2 wins came against wash and carolina, even if the skins won their other two, we would win out based on record (we would be 10-6). The gint would therefore be allowed only one win and that win cannot be against the skins (it would put there divisional better than ours). We would win that based on common games I believe.

If our 2 wins came against wash and the rams, the same scenario as above would apply.

If the 2 wins came against carolina and the rams, that would say that the skins beat us. Based on that, the skins would have to lose to philly because they would need to beat the gints (see next). The gints would HAVE to lose out based on a better divisional record with one win.

3 wins:
If we win out, the skins can win all three, it doesn't matter based on record. The gints would only be allowed to win 2, and it cannot come against the skins based on divisional record.

So let me know what you guys think, did I miss something, am I off? I haven't done this in a while, so I may be a bit off. I based this on the nfl.com procedures:

1. head to head
2. best divisional record
3. common games
4. best conference record

~majestik
 

Reality

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jord1242 said:
1 win:
If we only beat either the rams or carolina, we would lose out because of head to head with either the skins or the gints. If we only beat wash, even if the Gints lose out they would own the Head to head against us (we would have the same record of 9-7).
The head-to-head record against the Giants this year is 1-1 (tied).

-Reality
 

djmajestik

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I should have said that the gints would have had the better conference record. They would be at 8-4 and our best with one win against the skins would be 7-5. I believe common games would be tied in that scenario.

Thanks for pointing that out!!
 

EndGame

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Good info. Frankly, I think winning the division is a great goal, but the more realistic outcome is that we go into the playoffs as a wild card. The permutations on figuring out what we need there are too ridiculous right now, and will be for a couple more weeks.
 

LittleBoyBlue

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jord1242 said:
Apologies if this was posted, frequent reader, infrequent poster, didn't see anything like this and was bored, so here goes.

I did some scenarios to see what we would need to have happen to win the division, with 0, 1, 2, 3 wins.

Dallas
Record: 8-5
Division: 3-2
Conference: 6-3
Games: @wash, @car, rams

Skins
Record: 7-6
Division: 2-1
Conference: 7-2
Games: Dall, Gints, @philly

Gints
Record: 9-4
Division: 4-1
Conference: 8-3
Games: kc, @wash, @oak

0 wins:
We cannot win the division with 0 wins (obviously).

1 win:
If we only beat either the rams or carolina, we would lose out because of head to head with either the skins or the gints. If we only beat wash, even if the Gints lose out they would own the Head to head against us (we would have the same record of 9-7).

2 wins:
If our 2 wins came against wash and carolina, even if the skins won their other two, we would win out based on record (we would be 10-6). The gint would therefore be allowed only one win and that win cannot be against the skins (it would put there divisional better than ours). We would win that based on common games I believe.

If our 2 wins came against wash and the rams, the same scenario as above would apply.

If the 2 wins came against carolina and the rams, that would say that the skins beat us. Based on that, the skins would have to lose to philly because they would need to beat the gints (see next). The gints would HAVE to lose out based on a better divisional record with one win.

3 wins:
If we win out, the skins can win all three, it doesn't matter based on record. The gints would only be allowed to win 2, and it cannot come against the skins based on divisional record.

So let me know what you guys think, did I miss something, am I off? I haven't done this in a while, so I may be a bit off. I based this on the nfl.com procedures:

1. head to head
2. best divisional record
3. common games
4. best conference record

~majestik

Can you modify this to read the way it should now that you have figured it out?
I am curious

thanks
 

djmajestik

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Sure, and I am going to do the permutations for what we need to get in the playoffs with 0, 1, 2, 3 wins.

I will be posting something tonite on that. Definitley agree getting in the playoffs is more important, but that is a LOT more work.

~majestik
 

Dallas22

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jord1242 said:
3 wins:
If we win out, the skins can win all three, it doesn't matter based on record. The gints would only be allowed to win 2, and it cannot come against the skins based on divisional record.

The Commanders COULDN'T win all final 3 games IF we win our final 3 games because 1 of them is against us... so IF we win out and get all 3 victories, then the Skins will only be able to win 2 games... like you said though, it wouldn't make a difference.

Dallas22
 

CrazyCowboy

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I really believe we might catch the iants.......Chiefs will beat them on Saturday
 

djmajestik

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Dallas22 said:
The Commanders COULDN'T win all final 3 games IF we win our final 3 games because 1 of them is against us... so IF we win out and get all 3 victories, then the Skins will only be able to win 2 games... like you said though, it wouldn't make a difference.

Dallas22

Right, that's what I should have said
:rolleyes:

Thanks for the help, I am going to rewrite this for those interested, really appreciate all the help from everyone.

~majestik
 

djmajestik

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CrazyCowboy said:
I really believe we might catch the iants.......Chiefs will beat them on Saturday

Definitely agree, but just getting in the playoffs would be nice. I am going to try and run a what if scenario for us just to get in. Gonna be pretty complicated!
 

Doomsday101

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jord1242 said:
Definitely agree, but just getting in the playoffs would be nice. I am going to try and run a what if scenario for us just to get in. Gonna be pretty complicated!

Not complicated at all. Win our remaining games and we are in, lose and we start looking for others to help us. Dallas controls their own fate.
 
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