playoff tie breaker questions

JoeyBoy718

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Can any tie-breaker experts answer me this? I'm having trouble determining the common games tie-breaker.

I know the only scenario to get the #1 seed is a Det/GB tie, Arizona loss and Seattle loss.

I also know that we'd get the #2 seed with Arizona loss and Seattle loss.

Our most likely scenario is getting the #3 seed. In every scenario I tested on the playoff simulator, when we're the #3 seed we always get the loser of the Det/GB game.

The loser of the Det/GB game will be 11-5. If Seattle and Arizona win, Arizona would be 12-4 and the #5 seed over the 11-5 loser of the Det/GB game.

If Arizona wins and Seattle loses, Seattle would be the #5 seed over Green Bay (if GB lost) via head-to-head when Seattle beat GB in Week 1. And (I think it works like this) Seattle would be the #5 seed over Detroit via common games (they didn't play head to head and would both have 3 losses in the conference).

In common games, Seattle and Detroit played Green Bay, NY Giants, Carolina and Arizona. The records are:

vs Green Bay -- Detroit (1-1), Seattle (1-0)
vs NY Giants -- Detroit (1-0), Seattle (1-0)
vs Carolina -- Detroit (0-1), Seattle (1-0)
vs Arizona -- Detroit (0-1), Seattle (2-0)
overall -- Detroit (2-3), Seattle (5-0)

Okay, so I think I understand it. But then here's where I get confused:

If Seattle wins and Arizona loses, Arizona would be the #5 seed over Detroit via head-to-head when they beat them in Week 11. When it comes to determining a winner between Arizona and Green Bay, it gets tricky. They didn't play head-to-head and they'd both have 4 conference losses. So a common games tie-breaker would need to be applied. Here's what I found:

In common games, Arizona and Green Bay played Seattle, Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The records are:

vs Seattle -- Green Bay (0-1), Arizona (0-2)
vs Detroit -- Green Bay (1-1), Arizona (1-0)
vs Philadelphia -- Green Bay (1-0), Arizona (1-0)
vs Atlanta -- Green Bay (1-0), Arizona (0-1)
overall -- Green Bay (3-2), Arizona (2-3)

Keep in mind, this includes Week 17 games (Green Bay losing to Detroit and Arizona losing to San Fran). By my calculations, Arizona should be the #6 seed if they lose and Green Bay loses, but the playoff simulator says Green Bay would be the #6 seed. Is there something I'm missing?
 
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