Point Differential Update

[Bobhaze]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL UPDATE

I posted back in October that point differential is one of the most reliable predictors of which teams will make the Super Bowl.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 9-10 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 6 teams in point differential:

• Bills +145
• Cards +98
• Rams +98
• Pats +98
• Cowboys +89
• Bucaneers +67

It’s no guarantee, but right now history says these 6 teams are the biggest contenders to be in the next Super Bowl.

 

[glimmerman]

Wake me up at the playoffs. We have to win the division first..

 

[Direwolf63]

I don't know where the Packers are, but they are a legitimite threat

 

[Bobhaze]

I don't know where the Packers are, but they are a legitimite threat

The pack is currently +36, which is 9th.

 

[Havic]

the NFC is stacked, whoever comes out on top is winning the SB imo.

 

[Point-of-the-Star]

I don't know where the Packers are, but they are a legitimite threat

They're not blowing teams out, running up scores. Seems that helps point diff a lot. Most of those teams in the top 6 that Bob posted have had at least one big blowout this season. Can't remember TB having that signature run up the score game.

 

[RaZon]

I put a lot into that point differential thing, real big deal, it just takes awhile before it really means anything, it does around week 8ish.

This is the average score per game.

Cowboys 28 19
Cards 28 18
Rams 27 22
Packers 21 18
Buc's 27 21

Bills 28 13
Pats 27 17
Chiefs 26 24
Ravens 23 21
Titans 27 23

perspective...Texans 12 25

 

[Bobhaze]

I put a lot into that point differential thing, real big deal, it just takes awhile before it really means anything, it does around week 8ish.

This is the average score per game.

Cowboys 28 19
Cards 28 18
Rams 27 22
Packers 21 18
Buc's 27 21

Bills 28 13
Pats 27 17
Chiefs 26 24
Ravens 23 21
Titans 27 23

perspective...Texans 12 25

Good stuff.

 

[Risen Star]

I don't know where the Packers are, but they are a legitimite threat

Green Bay. It's in Wisconsin.

 

[RaZon]

Good stuff.

You brought it up, and yep, a big deal.

Another thing is who can win on the road, that says a lot about them/

Cowboys 3-1
Cards 5-0
Rams 4-1
Packers 4-2
Buc's 2-3 ouch!!!

Pats 5-0
Bills 3-2
Chiefs 3-2
Ravens 2-2
Titans 4-1

perspective...Texans 0-5

 

[ThatJerryKid]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL UPDATE

I posted back in October that point differential is one of the most reliable predictors of which teams will make the Super Bowl.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 9-10 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 6 teams in point differential:

• Bills +145
• Cards +98
• Rams +98
• Pats +98
• Cowboys +89
• Bucaneers +67

It’s no guarantee, but right now history these 6 teams are the biggest contenders to be in the next Super Bowl.

So Bills over Cards in the SB. Who we targeting in the draft?

 

[T-RO]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL UPDATE

I posted back in October that point differential is one of the most reliable predictors of which teams will make the Super Bowl.

Yup!

So far, 9-10 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 6 teams in point differential:

• Bills +145
• Cards +98
• Rams +98
• Pats +98
• Cowboys +89
• Bucaneers +67

To be accurate this must be adjusted. Some teams have played 1 more game. Pats now at @net +123 pts have played two more games.

If you adjust for games played, Cards and Cowboys are virtually tied for third. Your number for Rams is typo. They are net 44.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

NFCCG
Dallas vs Cardinals

AFCCG
Bills vs Chiefs

 

[Praxit]

NFCCG
Dallas vs Cardinals

AFCCG
Bills vs Chiefs

..I feel Tenn and Bills for AFCCG.

 

[RaZon]

True!



To be accurate this must be adjusted. Some teams have played 1 more game.

If you adjust for games played Cards, Pats and Cowboys are virtually tied for 2nd. Your number for Rams is incorrect. They are net 44.

Ball park no need to be exact/percise we get it.

 

[T-RO]

Ball park no need to be exact/percise we get it.

I would agree with you, but my Cowboys were sitting unfairly at 5th. Can't have that!

 

[Zman5]

Green Bay. It's in Wisconsin.

 

[RaZon]

When the Chiefs played in the first Superbowl they had....

Buck Buchanon
Curley Culp
Willie Laneir
Bobby Bell
Emmett Thomas
Johnny Robinson

on the defense, all in the Hall of Fame

The first Dallas Texan star...

He was the first African American to play college football in the state of Texas, there he is in his North Texas uni, I own that card.

Great great player he could do it all and did.

 

[Cowpolk]

Green Bay. It's in Wisconsin.

They still eat Wisconsin cheese

 

[Direwolf63]

Green Bay. It's in Wisconsin.

Thanks. I figured it was either Wisconsin or Georgia.