Point Differential Update

[JoeKing]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL UPDATE

I posted back in October that point differential is one of the most reliable predictors of which teams will make the Super Bowl.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 9-10 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 6 teams in point differential:

• Bills +145
• Cards +98
• Rams +98
• Pats +98
• Cowboys +89
• Bucaneers +67

It’s no guarantee, but right now history says these 6 teams are the biggest contenders to be in the next Super Bowl.

Pats/Bills AFCC game. The NFC is deep with good teams.

 

[ultron]

If it’s not Cowboys vs. Bills in the SB, I hope it’s the Patriots vs Buccs; even though I don’t want either Bill or Tom to get another ring - I just think that would be a fun 2 weeks of build up and a Hollywood like script lol.

 

[DallasInDC]

So Bills over Cards in the SB. Who we targeting in the draft?

Actually, it would be Bill's over Cowboys if you normalize for games played (as Razon pointed out). Side note, I think we would win that match up.

 

[Fmart322]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL UPDATE

I posted back in October that point differential is one of the most reliable predictors of which teams will make the Super Bowl.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 9-10 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 6 teams in point differential:

• Bills +145
• Cards +98
• Rams +98
• Pats +98
• Cowboys +89
• Bucaneers +67

It’s no guarantee, but right now history says these 6 teams are the biggest contenders to be in the next Super Bowl.

I was looking at that today in the standings.
I didn't realize that stat though.
If the Cowboys would have shown up in the Denver game perhaps we'd be higher on the list.
Also, I believe we've played 1 less games then some of those teams.

 

[Diehardblues]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL UPDATE

I posted back in October that point differential is one of the most reliable predictors of which teams will make the Super Bowl.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 9-10 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 6 teams in point differential:

• Bills +145
• Cards +98
• Rams +98
• Pats +98
• Cowboys +89
• Bucaneers +67

It’s no guarantee, but right now history says these 6 teams are the biggest contenders to be in the next Super Bowl.

Amazing how the Pats have moved up. All of a sudden they have become contenders. Wow

With the AFC elite teams spiraling down , watch out.

Maybe Bill just needed another Elite QB.

 

[Bobhaze]

Amazing how the Pats have moved up. All of a sudden they have become contenders. Wow

With the AFC elite teams spiraling down , watch out.

Maybe Bill just needed another Elite QB.

Everyone who says the pats dynasty was all Brady is very shortsighted.

 

[Flamma]

They're not blowing teams out, running up scores. Seems that helps point diff a lot. Most of those teams in the top 6 that Bob posted have had at least one big blowout this season. Can't remember TB having that signature run up the score game.

Green Bay got blown out by like 40 points in week 1. That's kind of masking how good their point differential should be. But the OP is right. Good teams win more often and throw in a few blowouts to boot. Rarely do they get blown out. So point differential is probably a good indicator.

 

[conner01]

the NFC is stacked, whoever comes out on top is winning the SB imo.

Reminds me of the days when who ever won between us and the 49ers lol

 

[conner01]

Everyone who says the pats dynasty was all Brady is very shortsighted.

I think Brady was a huge part of it
But bill is building away to get back and they are playing pretty good right now
But Brady has a ring without bill
Bill can’t say the same

 

[conner01]

Green Bay got blown out by like 40 points in week 1. That's kind of masking how good their point differential should be. But the OP is right. Good teams win more often and throw in a few blowouts to boot. Rarely do they get blown out. So point differential is probably a good indicator.

It’s a good stat to judge the best teams at the end of the year but a game or two this time of year can skew the numbers as you pointed out. Just like our falcons win skews the numbers too