POLL: Romo contract situation

[Alexander]

Well, what are the options?

1. If Jones bites too early and Romo is a dud, Jones loses money and has no franchise quarterback.

2. If Jones bites too early and Romo gets hurt but is out only for the year, Jones may lose some money but still has a franchise quarterback.

3. If Jones bites too early and Romo gets hurt so badly that it ruins his career, Jones loses money and has no franchise quarterback.

Those are the Jones risks of biting too early. What are the Romo risks of signing a new contract too early?

1. Romo might leave a great deal of money on the table if he plays well and stays healthy (like Ellis).

2. If the good feeling Romo now has about the team, the coaches, or the front office deteriorates, he would be stuck in an uncomfortable setting.

Well, what are the risks for Jones if no deal is done early?

1. If Romo plays well, stays healthy, and refuses to sign before the end of the season, Jones must enter a bidding war with other teams for Romo's services and may lose a franchise quarterback -- but, if successful in bidding, will pay more (perhaps a great deal more) money than he would have paid by biting early.

2. If Romo plays well, stays healthy, and refuses to to sign before the end of the season, Jones must use the franchise tag to have the best chance of keeping a franchise quarterback for one more year (at a cost of more than 12 million for the year), but the franchise tag will not keep another team from outbidding him and relinquishing the necessary two first round picks. He may lose his franchise quarterback anyway.

3. If Romo is franchised and no team gives up the picks, but Romo holds out, Jones is left without a franchise quarterback for 10 games.

What are the Romo risks of refusing to sign early?

1. He might be a dud, and be out millions.

2. He might get hurt bad, and be out millions.

3. If franchised, he might have to play for a year for only 12 million, or hold out.


Given those alternatives, who has the stronger position? The greater risks?

Jerry Jones has mentioned several times that he is banking on Romo wanting to play for the Dallas Cowboys. He can make millions just off endorsement deals.

That is also a plus, IMO.

 

[theogt]

Angus, can we get that in a decision tree?

 

[percyhoward]

If he was just a flash in the pan that no one was prepared for, it should not take long to realize it. I would say that even after a quarter of the season, you could separate the wheat from the chaff.

Of course, if he's terrible after a quarter of the season, then the picture is clear. But I don't know why anybody would expect that.

It's more likely that he'll be good after a quarter of a season (or half a season), and it will come down to how he performs in pressure games.

If you want to wait, then it wouldn't make sense to sign him before then.

 

[JackMagist]

And if you listened to Mister Jones the other night, it is clear his mind is not made up and it may not get done early.

The only hope for Romo is that the Bulger contract is something that Jones was waiting on to establish another benchmark to go along with the Schaub contract.

It sounded to me he was leaning towards seeing more, gambling and then paying him if necessary. Never disregard Jones' tendency to gamble.

In this case Jones has no choice but to gamble. Whatever he does will be a gamble in one way or another. That is the reason that I believe that he will go ahead and bet on Romo being a franchise quality QB. There is evidence that Romo has that ability and He can get him cheaper now than if he waits and Romo does pan out as hoped. Get him now and you get no bidding war, no franchise tag and no hard feelings between the player and organization.

In either case if Romo is not the real deal then the team is left without a franchise QB for at least a couple of years more. The team’s hopes at quarterback are already riding on Tony Romo. So the question is how much of his money is Jerry Jones willing to gamble on him and how much extra is he willing to gamble on a more sure deal by waiting?

I simply see the greater risk for the team and for Jerry’s money to be in waiting.

 

[skicat1898]

If you pay Romo now, and it is a contract less than what Bulger has and Romo goes out and lights it up this year,, deep in the playoffs, another Pro Bowl,,, Jerry will end up being forced by Romo and Condon to renegotiate a bigger deal.......

So with that being said, I believe Jerry waits, getting Romo cheap if he is really that good just isn't going to happen....

Jerry can afford to wait,,, if he ends up paying Romo more money than Bulger got, that means Romo earned it and we have our franchise QB for the next 5 to 7 years.

 

[sago1]

If Jerry pays big bucks now & Romo is a dud or gets seriously hurt, not only would we hae a serious cap hit for serious years but we'd also have to then spend big money to draft/sign a high round QB pick setting us back many years. I'm betting Jones waits until mid season. Don't forget at this point in time Romo seems happy and has said nothing to indicate he'd be upset by waiting. I think Romo knows Jerry will pay him the big bucks if he warrants it and Romo has enough confidence to accept waiting for half a season. He also knows as QB of the Dallas Cowboys, particularly if he gets us at least deep into the playoffs & with his personality, he will get contracting agreements in the millions (ala Michael Vick but w/o the problems) so he'll stay in Dallas.

 

[JackMagist]

If Jerry pays big bucks now & Romo is a dud or gets seriously hurt, not only would we hae a serious cap hit for serious years but we'd also have to then spend big money to draft/sign a high round QB pick setting us back many years. I'm betting Jones waits until mid season. Don't forget at this point in time Romo seems happy and has said nothing to indicate he'd be upset by waiting. I think Romo knows Jerry will pay him the big bucks if he warrants it and Romo has enough confidence to accept waiting for half a season. He also knows as QB of the Dallas Cowboys, particularly if he gets us at least deep into the playoffs & with his personality, he will get contracting agreements in the millions (ala Michael Vick but w/o the problems) so he'll stay in Dallas.

You can leave the "or gets seriously hurt" bit out of the equation. It is a factor outside of anyone's control and has no bearing on whether or not Romo has the skills and talent to be worth the big contract. It could happen to Brady or Manning or anyone and is therefore not a consideration in the contract negotiations. The same thing could happen next year even after Romo has proven to be worth the money so it should not even enter into this discussion.

You are going with the other gamble. Get a little more tape and a little more proof that he is or is not worth the money. The downside (from Jerry's perspective) is that if/when he proves to be worth that money it will translate into a LOT MORE money.

I do think you are right and that Tony will want to stay in Dallas. He has already shown that he is aware of the intrinsic value of being the Dallas Cowboys quarterback as opposed to the Cleveland Browns (or whatever) quarterback. But if Jerry lets him get to FA when it comes down to it...make no mistake...money talks. This is the only chance Jerry will have to get him cheap (or relatively so).

For me...I'm already a believer. I want to see the long term deal done ASAP and be done with it. I want contracts behind us and Romo concentrating on playing Football.

 

[skicat1898]

If you have a franchise QB, or if you have to go get one,, it ain't gonna be "cheap".... Eventually you are going to have to pay a franchise QB franchise QB money, so all this talk about getting Romo "cheap" is really ridiculous.....

Wait til mid season, if he earns it pay him accordingly.. If not , don't pay him and we still have the money to go get a franchise QB... It is ridiculous to pay Romo franchise money until you comfortably feel he has earned it... Bulger has, Romo has not.

 

[Angus]

Jerry Jones has mentioned several times that he is banking on Romo wanting to play for the Dallas Cowboys. He can make millions just off endorsement deals.

That is also a plus, IMO.

The other side of that coin exposes a risk for Jones. If Romo refuses to sign and goes to another club, Jones loses Romo's marketability. If he plays well, Romo can make millions from endorsements with any team. His celebrity is already established.

 

[Fmart322]

2. Gets new contract during season