Post Week 5: QB Combined Statistical Ranking

DFWJC

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5 weeks in, so learning more every week. Still 12 games remaining.

Weekly Disclaimer on this statistical ranking
This does NOT say which QB is the best.....ONLY how they have played so far this year in the first 5 games.


Just a reminder that in these weekly postings, "Combined Stats" just means using two key stats that --when combined--almost always point to the QBs having the best season (the eventual All-Pros, MVPs, etc)

Those stats are:
1) Standard QB Passer rating
2) Total TDs (Rushing and Passing) - Total Turnovers (Fumbles lost and Interceptions)

Here are the QB Rankings using Combined Stats after 5 weeks:
  1. Wilson
  2. Brady
  3. Stafford
  4. Murray
  5. Prescott (tied 5th)
  6. Mahomes (tied 5th)
  7. Winston
  8. Herbert
  9. J Allen
  10. Burrow (tied 10th)
  11. Cousins (tied 10th)
  12. Bridgewater
  13. Rodgers
  14. Jackson
  15. Ryan (tied 15th)
  16. Hurts (tied 15th)
  17. Wentz
  18. D Jones
  19. Carr
  20. Heinike
  21. Mayfield
  22. Darnold
  23. Garoppolo
  24. Tannehill
  25. Goff
  26. M Jones
  27. Roethlisberger
  28. Brissett
  29. Mills
  30. Fields
  31. Lawrence
  32. Wilson
( I omitted Tue, Lance, Dalton, Taylor, Lock)



Here is the thread for last week (week 4)
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-week-4-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.485260/
 

DFWJC

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Dak is holding strong so far this year!

Some other post-week 5 trivia:

  • Risers: Jackson (10 spots), Herbert (7 spots) , Brady (6 spots), Allen (5)
  • Fallers: Heinke (10 spots), Cousins (5), Mahomes (4)

The fact that there can be that much movement tells us we are still very early in the season.

A couple fo random observations.

Rodgers is always near or at the top of these types of rankings. I assume he'll climb up into that top 3-7 range, but he's had one awful game and a few sub par (for Ragers) games already this year.

Winston is a shocking +9 in TDs-Turnovers so far. That's outstanding thru 5 games.
He has always had great arm talent, but his decision-making has been....well....sporadic. lol
Its extremely early but he keeps hanging around in that 7-10 range.
 
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DFWJC

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Top 10 in TD-Turnovers

1st___Brady (13)
2nd___Allen (11)
3rd-(3 tied)___Wilson, Stafford, Mahomes (10)
6th (3 tied)___Murray, Herbert, Winston (9)
9th (4 tied)___Prescott, Cousins, Hurts, Rodgers,(8)


Top 10 Passer Rating

  1. Wilson
  2. Prescott
  3. Stafford
  4. Murray
  5. Brady
  6. Winston
  7. Burrow
  8. Mahomes
  9. Bridgewater
  10. Herbert
 

RS12

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Dak is holding strong so far this year!

Some other post-week 5 trivia:

  • Risers: Jackson (10 spots), Herbert (7 spots) , Brady (6 spots), Allen (5)
  • Fallers: Heinke (10 spots), Cousins (5), Mahomes (4)
The fact that there can be that much movement tells us we are still very early in the season.

A couple fo random observations.

Rodgers is always near or at the top of these types of rankings. I assume he'll climb up into that top 3-7 range, but he's had one awful game and a few sub par (for Ragers) games already this year.

Winston is a shocking +9 in TDs-Turnovers so far. That's outstanding thru 5 games.
He has always had great arm talent, but his decision-making has been....well....sporadic. lol
Its extremely early but he keeps hanging around in that 7-10 range.
I thought Sean Payton was Winstbon's best shot as a reclamation project.
 

DFWJC

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I thought Sean Payton was Winstbon's best shot as a reclamation project.
So far, so good!

+9 in TDs-Turnovers thru just 5 games is great for anyone.
But for him.....wow. That has to close to his career 16 game best

In the past, for anyone, a +20 for a 16 game season was good.
 

JD_KaPow

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5 weeks in, so learning more every week. Still 12 games remaining.

Weekly Disclaimer on this statistical ranking
This does NOT say which QB is the best.....ONLY how they have played so far this year in the first 5 games.


Just a reminder that in these weekly postings, "Combined Stats" just means using two key stats that --when combined--almost always point to the QBs having the best season (the eventual All-Pros, MVPs, etc)

Those stats are:
1) Standard QB Passer rating
2) Total TDs (Rushing and Passing) - Total Turnovers (Fumbles lost and Interceptions)

Here are the QB Rankings using Combined Stats after 5 weeks:
  1. Wilson
  2. Brady
  3. Stafford
  4. Murray
  5. Prescott (tied 5th)
  6. Mahomes (tied 5th)
  7. Winston
  8. Herbert
  9. J Allen
  10. Burrow (tied 10th)
  11. Cousins (tied 10th)
  12. Bridgewater
  13. Rodgers
  14. Jackson
  15. Ryan (tied 15th)
  16. Hurts (tied 15th)
  17. Wentz
  18. D Jones
  19. Carr
  20. Heinike
  21. Mayfield
  22. Darnold
  23. Garoppolo
  24. Tannehill
  25. Goff
  26. M Jones
  27. Roethlisberger
  28. Brissett
  29. Mills
  30. Fields
  31. Lawrence
  32. Wilson
( I omitted Tue, Lance, Dalton, Taylor, Lock)



Here is the thread for last week (week 4)
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-week-4-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.485260/
This is a kind of weird mix of passer rating (a rate stat) and a sort-of volume stat which includes things at least partially covered in passer rating (passing TDs and INTs) but ends up weighting them heavier compared to the other things in passer rating. It doesn't include QB rushing...but does include rushing TDs.
It doesn't include sacks. It includes fumbles, but only fumbles lost.
You also don't say (at least here) how you combine them. Not sure how you would properly combine two such disparate stats.

I'm left wondering why you would concoct such a stat and how it's better than other measures.
 

Ranching

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So far, so good!

+9 in TDs-Turnovers thru just 5 games is great for anyone.
But for him.....wow. That has to close to his career 16 game best

In the past, for anyone, a +20 for a 16 game season was good.
Good stuff!
 

john van brocklin

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5 weeks in, so learning more every week. Still 12 games remaining.

Weekly Disclaimer on this statistical ranking
This does NOT say which QB is the best.....ONLY how they have played so far this year in the first 5 games.


Just a reminder that in these weekly postings, "Combined Stats" just means using two key stats that --when combined--almost always point to the QBs having the best season (the eventual All-Pros, MVPs, etc)

Those stats are:
1) Standard QB Passer rating
2) Total TDs (Rushing and Passing) - Total Turnovers (Fumbles lost and Interceptions)

Here are the QB Rankings using Combined Stats after 5 weeks:
  1. Wilson
  2. Brady
  3. Stafford
  4. Murray
  5. Prescott (tied 5th)
  6. Mahomes (tied 5th)
  7. Winston
  8. Herbert
  9. J Allen
  10. Burrow (tied 10th)
  11. Cousins (tied 10th)
  12. Bridgewater
  13. Rodgers
  14. Jackson
  15. Ryan (tied 15th)
  16. Hurts (tied 15th)
  17. Wentz
  18. D Jones
  19. Carr
  20. Heinike
  21. Mayfield
  22. Darnold
  23. Garoppolo
  24. Tannehill
  25. Goff
  26. M Jones
  27. Roethlisberger
  28. Brissett
  29. Mills
  30. Fields
  31. Lawrence
  32. Wilson
( I omitted Tue, Lance, Dalton, Taylor, Lock)



Here is the thread for last week (week 4)
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-week-4-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.485260/
As always, much appreciated
 

DFWJC

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This is a kind of weird mix of passer rating (a rate stat) and a sort-of volume stat which includes things at least partially covered in passer rating (passing TDs and INTs) but ends up weighting them heavier compared to the other things in passer rating. It doesn't include QB rushing...but does include rushing TDs.
It doesn't include sacks. It includes fumbles, but only fumbles lost.
You also don't say (at least here) how you combine them. Not sure how you would properly combine two such disparate stats.

I'm left wondering why you would concoct such a stat and how it's better than other measures.
I know you love stats and will want to take this to another level. Maybe enter some differential equations into the fold....lol.
Dissect it and devalue it in some way. I get it.

Backtests have shown after a full season, this particular combo ends up correlating to the QBs who end up getting MVP and or All-Pro (not Pro Bowl, but the highest level of All-Pro)

Hey, I'm a geophysicist by trade and a mathematician, but that's not what this is.
I also understand if you choose to not participate in these threads, I would not be insulted whatsoever. It might seem like a waste of your time.

Nobody is saying it's remotely perfect, but I've found it to be a great indicator of how a QB is playing...and helping his team... over the course of a season. It needs a large sample size.

On a common-sense level, I think this combination takes the basic efficiency of the standard passer rating, but over time, weeds out the high passer rating that can be had through bus driving. Kind of double dips.
You cannot have a huge Total TD-Total turnover and be a bus driver.
It includes rushing TDs and lost fumbles.

I suspect this could slightly short-change a QB that rushes for a ton of yards but does not get the rushing TDs to go with it. That is very rare though. The only guy this year might be Lamar Jackson. But he's also fumbling alot.

Again, I get it if this isn't sophisticated enough for you. I know we could add way more to it, but I've found this simple combo works almost all the time.

I hope that answered your question
:thumbup:
 

pansophy

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5 weeks in, so learning more every week. Still 12 games remaining.

Weekly Disclaimer on this statistical ranking
This does NOT say which QB is the best.....ONLY how they have played so far this year in the first 5 games.


Just a reminder that in these weekly postings, "Combined Stats" just means using two key stats that --when combined--almost always point to the QBs having the best season (the eventual All-Pros, MVPs, etc)

Those stats are:
1) Standard QB Passer rating
2) Total TDs (Rushing and Passing) - Total Turnovers (Fumbles lost and Interceptions)

Here are the QB Rankings using Combined Stats after 5 weeks:
  1. Wilson
  2. Brady
  3. Stafford
  4. Murray
  5. Prescott (tied 5th)
  6. Mahomes (tied 5th)
Nice work -- how do you calculate this? Do you just use the standard passer rating statistic but add running TDs and fumbles as Ints?
 

Ranching

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I know you love stats and will want to take this to another level. Maybe enter some differential equations into the fold....lol.
Dissect it and devalue it in some way. I get it.

Backtests have shown after a full season, this particular combo ends up correlating to the QBs who end up getting MVP and or All-Pro (not Pro Bowl, but the highest level of All-Pro)

Hey, I'm a geophysicist by trade and a mathematician, but that's not what this is.
I also understand if you choose to not participate in these threads, I would not be insulted whatsoever. It might seem like a waste of your time.

Nobody is saying it's remotely perfect, but I've found it to be a great indicator of how a QB is playing...and helping his team... over the course of a season. It needs a large sample size.

On a common-sense level, I think this combination takes the basic efficiency of the standard passer rating, but over time, weeds out the high passer rating that can be had through bus driving. Kind of double dips.
You cannot have a huge Total TD-Total turnover and be a bus driver.
It includes rushing TDs and lost fumbles.

I suspect this could slightly short-change a QB that rushes for a ton of yards but does not get the rushing TDs to go with it. That is very rare though. The only guy this year might be Lamar Jackson. But he's also fumbling alot.

Again, I get it if this isn't sophisticated enough for you. I know we could add way more to it, but I've found this simple combo works almost all the time.

I hope that answered your question
:thumbup:
Wow! I never knew you were this smart! Lol, Salud!
 

DFWJC

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Nice work -- how do you calculate this? Do you just use the standard passer rating statistic but add running TDs and fumbles as Ints?
Thanks.

It's really just a simple average of each QB's rank in the two categores
1--Standard PR
2--TD-Turnover Differential (Passing/Rushing TDs - Ints/Lost Fumbles)

I know it is basic but it has worked really well the last 20 years, so I don't go any further than this.
 
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