Potential Dallas Trade scenarios

[JohnnyHopkins]

I was hoping to get some new blood to throw out their mock drafts, so I figured I could put out some trades based on value. Nutshell scenario is that Dallas gives up a little more to move up and gets a little more to move back. For example, Dallas gave away 24 points to the Pats in 2010 to move up for Dez. New picks are highlighted in blue.

Note: If users want to subsitute future picks, they can do so by replacing a current year pick with the next round up in the 2012 draft (example, 2011 4th round replaced by 2012 3rd round pick):

Note #2: I did not consider needs or if another team might realistically want to trade, just how the math might work.

Dallas Draft Points for 2011 Draft:
http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft_point_value_chart.htm
1 (9) - 1,350
2 (40) - 500
3 (71) - 235
4 (109) - 76
5 (140) - 36
6 (171) - 23
7 (209) - 7.8


Dallas Moves Up:

Cincy #4 - Dallas gives #1, #2 (1840) in return for the Bengals #1 (1,800)

New Picks: #1(4), #3 (71), #4 (109), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Arizona #5 - Dallas Gives #1 and #2 (1840) in return for Arizona's #1 and #4 (1,831.5).

New Picks: #1 (5), #3 (71), #4 (102), #4 (109), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Cleveland #6 - Dallas trades #1 and #2 (1,840). Receives Clevelands #1 and #3 (1,835).

New Picks: #1 (6), #3 (70), #3 (71), #4 (109), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

49ers #7 - Dallas trades #1 and #3 (1,585). Receives 49ers #1 and #4 (1580)

New Picks: #1 (7), #2 (40), #4 (107), #4 (109), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Titans #8 - - Dallas trades #1 and #4 (1,426). Receives the Titans #1 (1,400)

New Picks: #1 (8), #2 (40), #3 (71), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Dallas Moves Down:

Commanders #10 - Dallas trades #1 (1,350). Receives #1 and 2012 #3 (1,374). Washington does not have a 3rd or 4th round selection, which makes for a difficult trade.

New Picks: #1(10), #2 (40), #3 (71), #4 (109), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Texans #11 -Dallas trades #1, #4 and #5 (1,462). Receives #1 and #3 (1,475).

New Picks: #1(11), #2 (40), #3 (71), #3 (73), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Vikings #12 - Dallas trades #1, #3 and #4 (1,661). Receives #1 and #2 (1,670).

New Picks: #1(12), #2 (40), #2 (43), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Lions #13 - Dallas trades #1 (1,350). Receives #1 and #3 (1,365).

New Picks: #1(13), #2 (40), #3 (71), #3 (75), #4 (109), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Rams #14 - Dallas trades #1 and #3 (1,585). Receives #1, #2 and #5 (1,595).

New Picks: #1(14), #2 (40), #2 (47), #4 (109), #5 (140), #5 (142), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Dolphins #15 - Dallas trades #1 and #4 (1,426). Receives #1, 2012 #2, #3 (1,440). Miami does not have a #2, so this would be a difficult trade to pull off without a future pick.

New Picks: #1(15), #2 (40), #3 (71), #3 (79), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Jaguars #16 - Dallas trades #1 and #5, #7 (1,393.8). Receives #1, #2 (1,410).

New Picks: #1(16), #2 (40), #2 (49), #3 (71), #4 (109), #6 (171)

Patriots #17 - Dallas trades #1 and #3 (1,585). Receives #1 and #1 (1,610).

New Picks: #1(17), #1 (28), #2 (40), #4 (109), #5 (140), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Chargers #18 - Dallas trades #1, #4 and #5 (1,462). Receives #1, #2 and #3 (1,480).

New Picks: #1(18), #2 (40), #2 (50), #3 (71), #3 (82), #6 (171), #7 (209)

Giants #19 - Dallas trades #1, #5 (1,386). Receives #1, #2, #3 (1,405).

New Picks: #1(19), #2 (40), #2 (52), #3 (71), #3 (83), #4 (109), #6 (171), #7 (209)

 

[Randy White]

throw away the point chart.. That's been obsolete for at least the past 5 years if not more. As of right now, just about any trade in the draft is possible. Just look at what's happened in the past 3 drafts alone.

Having said that, I think this year it's going to be a very difficult one when it comes to trades in the draft IF there's no new CBA before it starts. Teams are going to be valuing the draft picks more than ever because it's the only sure way to fill up the holes for now. Nobody knows what the new CBA is going to look like, so the free agency market is not even a thought and IF it takes a long time for the new agreement to be settled, that same FA market is going to be less of a factor than it usually is. That makes the draft picks immensely more valuable.

 

[JohnnyHopkins]

throw away the point chart.. That's been obsolete for at least the past 5 years if not more. As of right now, just about any trade in the draft is possible. Just look at what's happened in the past 3 drafts alone.

Having said that, I think this year it's going to be a very difficult one when it comes to trades in the draft IF there's no new CBA before it starts. Teams are going to be valuing the draft picks more than ever because it's the only sure way to fill up the holes for now. Nobody knows what the new CBA is going to look like, so the free agency market is not even a thought and IF it takes a long time for the new agreement to be settled, that same FA market is going to be less of a factor than it usually is. That makes the draft picks immensely more valuable.

The point chart is still more relevant than people give it credit for. It loses relevance the further one gets away from the original pick, but is the best guide to use when doing stuff like what is done on this forum. Here is an analysis of the chart's performance on the 2008 Draft:

http://torgo.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/10525021/13697648

The short version is that there were 23 trades that were strictly pick for pick within the 2008 draft (no future picks, no players). Of those, only one broke from the chart by more than 10% (for early round trades, where the numbers are big) or 11 total points (for later rounds, where the numbers are smaller). And that one trade was a four for one deal, with the one pick carrying the higher point value. Seven out of the nine first-day deals were within 5%.

As I posted above, the Dallas/NE trade was within 25 points even last year. It will not be perfect because it can't factor in how badly a team needs a certain player on draft day, but it is still relevant and passed out by the NFL before the draft.

 

[DFWJC]

Any trade that requires us to give up both our 1st and 2nd picks just to move up a little further makes my stomach turn. We can get two excellent players with those picks.

 

[fishspill]

It's logical to believe that the new CBA, in whatever form it takes, will include rookie salary limits set much lower than they are now. With the guaranteed money decreased the higher draft picks become much more valuable. The chart can still be a good guide but I'd increase the values of the higher picks in relation to lower ones. The trade points should favor the team with the higher pick in the equation to be valid. IMO.

 

[Randy White]

just out of the top of my head going back roughly 4 years, there have been several trades that made the chart obselete.

One of them was the Jets, sending the 17th pick of the draft, a 2nd round pick, and 3 veteran average players to the Browns for the 5th pick of the draft ( Mark Sanchez ).

Another one was the Jacksonville Jaguars sending the 26th pick of the draft to the Ravens for the 8th pick of the draft ( Derrick Harvey ), costing them two 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick.

Several teams trading 2nd round draft picks ( from high to low in the round ) for future #1 draft picks in the past several drafts.

Last year teams were all over the place. Eagles payed two 3rd round picks to move up 11 spots in the 1st round ( 24th to 13th ). Chargers payed almost nothing to the Dullphins for moving up from #28 to #12 ( they gave up a 2nd round pick, but switched places in the 4th rnd, improving 16 spots, and got a 6th round pick on top of that ). Other minor deals late in the draft also were out of whack.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?confirm=true&id=09000d5d817b4621&template=with-video-with-comments

in short, teams have learned that the so called chart, mostly a creating of Jimmy Johnson by the way, is pretty much worthless. If they like a player at a particular round, or even a particular pick, and are willing to pay the asking price, they do so and move on.

 

[DFWJC]

just out of the top of my head going back roughly 4 years, there have been several trades that made the chart obselete.

One of them was the Jets, sending the 17th pick of the draft, a 2nd round pick, and 3 veteran average players to the Browns for the 5th pick of the draft ( Mark Sanchez ).

Another one was the Jacksonville Jaguars sending the 26th pick of the draft to the Ravens for the 8th pick of the draft ( Derrick Harvey ), costing them two 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick.

Several teams trading 2nd round draft picks ( from high to low in the round ) for future #1 draft picks in the past several drafts.

Last year teams were all over the place. Eagles payed two 3rd round picks to move up 11 spots in the 1st round ( 24th to 13th ). Chargers payed almost nothing to the Dullphins for moving up from #28 to #12 ( they gave up a 2nd round pick, but switched places in the 4th rnd, improving 16 spots, and got a 6th round pick on top of that ). Other minor deals late in the draft also were out of whack.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?confirm=true&id=09000d5d817b4621&template=with-video-with-comments

in short, teams have learned that the so called chart, mostly a creating of Jimmy Johnson by the way, is pretty much worthless. If they like a player at a particular round, or even a particular pick, and are willing to pay the asking price, they do so and move on.

Lots of good points and mostly true.

If you have nothing else to go by, however, an updated draft chart gets you closer than nothig at all--especially because we don't know what player will where and who will be willing to overpay (or undertrade) until the draft unfolds.

For example, most would not predict that the Chargers were going to partially fleece the Fins like that. Of course, as it turns out, the Chargers may have overpaid for Matthews anyway...we'll see, and that's on the player not the trade.

 

[NeonDeion21]

A trade with the Chargers would be real interesting. I would use #40 and #82 to move to the back of the 1st round.

 

[Randy White]

For example, most would not predict that the Chargers were going to partially fleece the Fins like that. Of course, as it turns out, the Chargers may have overpaid for Matthews anyway...we'll see, and that's on the player not the trade.

Of course.. I mean, remember that the draft is based on potential, not current or past performances in the NFL.

Think Dez would have lasted to the 25th ? had teams known what he was going to do ?

 

[SDogo]

throw away the point chart.. That's been obsolete for at least the past 5 years if not more. As of right now, just about any trade in the draft is possible. Just look at what's happened in the past 3 drafts alone.

Having said that, I think this year it's going to be a very difficult one when it comes to trades in the draft IF there's no new CBA before it starts. Teams are going to be valuing the draft picks more than ever because it's the only sure way to fill up the holes for now. Nobody knows what the new CBA is going to look like, so the free agency market is not even a thought and IF it takes a long time for the new agreement to be settled, that same FA market is going to be less of a factor than it usually is. That makes the draft picks immensely more valuable.

I'm pretty sure you and I went around about this last year until we realized we were pretty much on the same page just saying different things.

The general idea of a trade chart is not obsolete but the days of everyone using Jimmy's chart are long gone.

I kind of get annoyed when some of the old timers still call out trades as silly because a team gave up 25pts here or there.

It does not work that way anymore people. Each team has their own values on the picks based a dozen various factors.

Can we please stop referring to the old trade chart just because Scott Wright refuses to take it off his site.

 

[Randy White]

I'm pretty sure you and I went around about this last year until we realized we were pretty much on the same page just saying different things. The general idea of a trade chart is not obsolete but the days of everyone using Jimmy's chart are long gone. I kind of get annoyed when some of the old timers still call out trades as silly because a team gave up 25pts here or there. It does not work that way anymore people. Each team has their own values on the picks based a dozen various factors. Can we please stop referring to the old trade chart just because Scott Wright refuses to take it off his site.

It wasn't you and me, because I was saying basically the same thing you were.

To folks who watch the draft regularly and for at least the past 10+ years, you could tell the chart thing wasn't being used anymore the past few years. It was actually somewhat of a shock because it used to be a thrilled pretending to trade down and accumulating this many picks because that other team did it back when and so forth and so forth.. Once teams starting making this trades that " looked " like " rip offs " but, essentially, they were the price that the market was producing, then the light bulb went on and the realization that the old system wasn't in play anymore set in.

 

[JohnnyHopkins]

just out of the top of my head going back roughly 4 years, there have been several trades that made the chart obselete.

One of them was the Jets, sending the 17th pick of the draft, a 2nd round pick, and 3 veteran average players to the Browns for the 5th pick of the draft ( Mark Sanchez ).

Another one was the Jacksonville Jaguars sending the 26th pick of the draft to the Ravens for the 8th pick of the draft ( Derrick Harvey ), costing them two 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick.

Several teams trading 2nd round draft picks ( from high to low in the round ) for future #1 draft picks in the past several drafts.

Last year teams were all over the place. Eagles payed two 3rd round picks to move up 11 spots in the 1st round ( 24th to 13th ). Chargers payed almost nothing to the Dullphins for moving up from #28 to #12 ( they gave up a 2nd round pick, but switched places in the 4th rnd, improving 16 spots, and got a 6th round pick on top of that ). Other minor deals late in the draft also were out of whack.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?confirm=true&id=09000d5d817b4621&template=with-video-with-comments

in short, teams have learned that the so called chart, mostly a creating of Jimmy Johnson by the way, is pretty much worthless. If they like a player at a particular round, or even a particular pick, and are willing to pay the asking price, they do so and move on.

Pointing to the exceptions rather than the rule does not make the chart obsolete. Professional scouts have the inside knowledge of their teams, but this is a bunch of speculative fans with nothing more than BS (Basic Studying )to guide them. I for one enjoy reading the mocks and would love to see more of them from the regulars on the site. As long as someone aims for 95% of value (see below), it will be a very reasonable attempt. Two things to remember. No one can place emphasis on a player but the team that is trading. That is why I made no attempts to look at players. It is very similar with future draft picks, because only a team can put an emphasis on where they expect to end up the next year. If you throw those two scenarios out when/where you can, the chart is a very reasonable guide. Look at last seasons "current year, picks only" trades in the first round:

Broncos receive pick 13 and 113 (1218) from San Fran for pick #11 (1150). 1150 is 94.4% of 1218 per the chart.

Lions receive #30 and #128 (664) from Vikings for #34, #100 and #214 (665.8). Almost 100% of the value.

Broncos receive Pick #25 (720) from Ravens for pick #43, 70 and 114 (776). 720 is 92.7% of 776.

Dallas receives #24 and #119 (796) from Pats for #27 and #90 (820). 796 is 97% of 820.

Broncos receive #22 (780) from Pats for #24 and #113 (808). 780 is 96.5% of 808.

Broncos receive #24, #70 and #87 (1,135) from Eagles for pick #13 (1,150). 1,135 is 98.7% of 1,150.

So, the lowest % was just a shade under 93% of value from the chart. Still more than accurate enough to use here.

Look at the Dallas Picks from the 2010 Draft:

Trade to Pats (above). 24 pt difference for 97% of value.

Receive #55 (350) from Eagles for #59 and #125 (357). 7 point difference for98% of value.

Receive 126 and 179 (65.8) from Dolphins for 119 (56). 9.8 point difference for 85% of value.

The largest difference there is 24 points. Like I stated in my chart, Dallas gave more a little more points when they went up and received a little more points when they moved down. What this tells me is that unless they can fleece the other team, their value chart is similar enough to the traditional one to use it as speculation on this forum.

Having said that, if you have an alternate chart that you would like to present as more accurate, I would thoroughly enjoy reading it. :

 

[SDogo]

Having said that, if you have an alternate chart that you would like to present as more accurate, I would thoroughly enjoy reading it. :

Being totally honest it is nothing I can duplicate or sit here and pretend I can lay out for you. It's totally based off of a teams grading of players, value they deem in each round, simply how much or little they think of any set of players, how they grade out strength of positions.

Like I said, I cant even pretend to give you an example of any teams value chart but I have seen the process in parts and it takes months before the draft to lay out the numbers.