Predict sack totals for DL

[waldoputty]

what are your predictions?

here are mine:
Irving - 3 - 0.5 last year with minimal playing time though a decent amount of pressure
Thornton - 2 - 1 more than last year in 1 gap system instead of 2-gap
Crawford - 7 - 2 more than last year assuming he stays healthy
Mayowa - 3 - assuming he gets at least 50% time due to suspensions
J Crawford - 6 - 2 more than last year in which he played 46% of snaps - assuming he gets more playing time due to suspensions.
Collins - 3 assuming he plays on 3rd downs and obvious passing situations.
Lawrence - 6 - 2 less than last year due to suspension and lack of hardy
Gregory - 3 - 3 more than last year assuming there is improvement
Tapper - 1 - assuming red shirt type year
DT#4 - run stuffing only

total is 34 - which is a lot more than last year from the DL which got 23.5 last year.
other positions got 7.5 sacks last year
31 total sacks in 2015

so basically Crawford has a better year while Lawrence regress a bit.
JCrawford gets more with more playing time.
Irving and Mayowa produce moderately or they lose time to other players such as Gregory and Tapper.
Collins does ok.
Tapper plays ~20% snaps or so.

Can DT upgrade compensate for Hardy we shall see?

 

[DTown214]

I think Lawrence's suspension will get reduced to 2 games and he'll get double digit sacks. I also expect 5-8 sacks from each of Crawford, Gregory, and Throton.

 

[Sydla]

I think Lawrence's suspension will get reduced to 2 games and he'll get double digit sacks. I also expect 5-8 sacks from each of Crawford, Gregory, and Throton.

I don't know about expecting 5-8 sacks from Thornton. Even in a one gap system, he's not that type of player. He just needs to hold up in the run game.

 

[RandyOh]

7 from both Tank and T Crawford.
4 from both Gregory, Mayowa, and J Crawford
3 from both Irving and Collins.
2 from Thornton
1 from both tapper and hopefully Coe.

9 Sacks off of blitz from other positions. RoMac leads the way with 4.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Romo stays healthy which will lead to more 2nd half sack opportunities as teams try to come back. That is what the defense is designed for and we saw what team execution could do for a player like Mincey.

Crawford - 9.5 sacks his shoulder isn't hurt and now he can use his left arm again. This will have a cascading effect on the line as he can no switch sides for matchups and make the entire line more dynamic.

DLaw - 7 sacks. He lines up next to talent no matter what this year as opposed to last year where he spent the first half of the season next to Velcro. If not for the suspension he would have a 10+ sack year.

Gregory - 4 sacks. This is a real wild card but his talent is unmistakable plus a year in the program and weight room will do him well. I don't predict he starts so he will make his mark situationally.

Jack Crawford - 2.5 sacks. Marinelli likes to play him but with the additional line talent he won't get as many snaps.

Mayowa - 3.5 sacks. I've seen only a handful of snaps but statistically he was efficient.

Collins - 4 sacks. HIs ability to disengage as well as his burst to finish fits the scheme like a glove. He's a rookie which limits his snaps and potential for the year.

Thornton - 1.5 sacks. More disruptive than this total would indicate, his position and lack of finish limit his opportunities and production.

Irvin - 4.5 sacks. Another wildcard who could blow up if he is working his butt off right now, I'm guessing a fair amount of playing time and a fair sack number.

Tapper - .5 sacks He will get some playing time early in the season and then will find himself struggling to get on the field. He is transitioning to a new style of lineplay and will take time to adjust. Zoners will of course poo all over the pick in instant evaluation.

Russell - .5 sack. Was not impressed last year see no reason to change my mind here.

McClain - 1.5 sacks. Will play modestly well and be on IR by the midpoint of the year yet again.


That is 40 sacks from the group. Romo being healthy will make that much of a difference in opportunities for them to rush the passer with impunity.

 

[RS12]

Over/ Under is 30 IMO. If I had to bet I'd go under. Their best pass rusher is looking at a 4 game suspension and coming off back surgery.

 

[KJJ]

I think Lawrence's suspension will get reduced to 2 games and he'll get double digit sacks. I also expect 5-8 sacks from each of Crawford, Gregory, and Throton.

Not having Hardy to account for will likely hurt DLaw's sack total unless others step up and provide a pass rush. DLaw suspended the first 4 games isn't going to help him get started and slow starts have been a problem for him.

 

[StarBoyz83]

25 or less total sacks.

 

[waldoputty]

Not having Hardy to account for will likely hurt DLaw's sack total unless others step up and provide a pass rush. DLaw suspended the first 4 games isn't going to help him get started and slow starts have been a problem for him.

Having Thornton or Collins next to Lawrence will force the double team more.
However offense can devote other resources (te, rb, etc) for Lawrence without Hardy - since he would be the most proven pass rusher.

 

[waldoputty]

Romo stays healthy which will lead to more 2nd half sack opportunities as teams try to come back. That is what the defense is designed for and we saw what team execution could do for a player like Mincey.

Crawford - 9.5 sacks his shoulder isn't hurt and now he can use his left arm again. This will have a cascading effect on the line as he can no switch sides for matchups and make the entire line more dynamic.

DLaw - 7 sacks. He lines up next to talent no matter what this year as opposed to last year where he spent the first half of the season next to Velcro. If not for the suspension he would have a 10+ sack year.

Gregory - 4 sacks. This is a real wild card but his talent is unmistakable plus a year in the program and weight room will do him well. I don't predict he starts so he will make his mark situationally.

Jack Crawford - 2.5 sacks. Marinelli likes to play him but with the additional line talent he won't get as many snaps.

Mayowa - 3.5 sacks. I've seen only a handful of snaps but statistically he was efficient.

Collins - 4 sacks. HIs ability to disengage as well as his burst to finish fits the scheme like a glove. He's a rookie which limits his snaps and potential for the year.

Thornton - 1.5 sacks. More disruptive than this total would indicate, his position and lack of finish limit his opportunities and production.

Irvin - 4.5 sacks. Another wildcard who could blow up if he is working his butt off right now, I'm guessing a fair amount of playing time and a fair sack number.

Tapper - .5 sacks He will get some playing time early in the season and then will find himself struggling to get on the field. He is transitioning to a new style of lineplay and will take time to adjust. Zoners will of course poo all over the pick in instant evaluation.

Russell - .5 sack. Was not impressed last year see no reason to change my mind here.

McClain - 1.5 sacks. Will play modestly well and be on IR by the midpoint of the year yet again.


That is 40 sacks from the group. Romo being healthy will make that much of a difference in opportunities for them to rush the passer with impunity.

If we trust the offense, then it should give the D more opportunities with a lead.
so we can hope that means more pressure on the other team to score and more passing under bad situations instead of playing it safe.
that by itself may translate to more opportunities for the D - more sacks and ints.

 

[KJJ]

Having Thornton or Collins next to Lawrence will force the double team more.
However offense can devote other resources (te, rb, etc) for Lawrence without Hardy - since he would be the most proven pass rusher.

Thornton has only 4 career sacks in 4 years, never having more than one sack in a season and Collins is a rookie. To force a double team you need a dominate pass rusher that can take up 2 defenders. The reason Denver's pass rush was so effective is having Miller AND Ware to contend with. This opened things up allowing Wolf, Barrett and Ray to combine for 15 sacks.

 

[waldoputty]

Thornton has only 4 career sacks in 4 years, never having more than one sack in a season and Collins is a rookie. To force a double team you need a dominate pass rusher that can take up 2 defenders. The reason Denver's pass rush was so effective is having Miller AND Ware to contend with. This opened things up allowing Wolf, Barrett and Ray to combine for 15 sacks.

I think others have talked about how a decent 1tech can almost force a double team by lining up the right way.
Lets compare Thornton and Collins to Hayden, the 1tech they are replacing.
That is probably a substantial step up in pressure and need for double team.

i seen a few mentions that Thornton penetrates well in runs.
hope that translates to pressure in pass situation in a one-gap.

“The former Eagle has only four sacks in four NFL seasons, so there’s a perception that he’s a lower-tier signing. Not true,” wrote Andy Benoit on MMQB.com Friday. “On first and second down, Thornton is as good as almost any NFL D-lineman. He has brute strength, lateral mobility and a knack for locating the ball. He can also penetrate against the run…The Cowboys got a very good player.” http://thelandryhat.com/2016/03/13/cedric-thornton-best-bang-dallas-cowboys-buck/

 

[AzorAhai]

Not going to bother guessing the individual totals. This looks like a team who ends up somewhere around 30-35 sacks if Romo stays healthy and effective. Anything more than that will be a pleasant surprise.

 

[YosemiteSam]

This many per player.

 

[AbeBeta]

I think Lawrence's suspension will get reduced to 2 games and he'll get double digit sacks. I also expect 5-8 sacks from each of Crawford, Gregory, and Throton.

People are basing the 2 game suspension on what happened to Scandrick.

Scandrick's suspension was not reduced. The league and NFLPA came to an agreement reclassifying amphetamines as part of the substance of abuse policy rather than the performance enhancing policy. That reclassification made his suspension go away as what he tested positive for was no longer what was being tested under the steroid policy. Lawrence's appeal appears to hinge on him being prescribed something after his back surgery. Regardless of what policy he was tested under (it is not clear at this point), that seems very much an all or none proposition. Either the league accepts that he tested positive due to legal prescription or they don't. So I'd expect an all or nothing decision here.

 

[DeaconMoss]

I dont care if they get 20 sacks as long as they are getting consistent pressure and making QB's throw the ball before they are ready and are making them uncomfortable.

 

[KJJ]

I dont care if they get 20 sacks as long as they are getting consistent pressure and making QB's throw the ball before they are ready and are making them uncomfortable.

Consistent pressure usually leads to a lot of sacks.

 

[Corso]

I think others have talked about how a decent 1tech can almost force a double team by lining up the right way.
Lets compare Thornton and Collins to Hayden, the 1tech they are replacing.
That is probably a substantial step up in pressure and need for double team.

i seen a few mentions that Thornton penetrates well in runs.
hope that translates to pressure in pass situation in a one-gap.

“The former Eagle has only four sacks in four NFL seasons, so there’s a perception that he’s a lower-tier signing. Not true,” wrote Andy Benoit on MMQB.com Friday. “On first and second down, Thornton is as good as almost any NFL D-lineman. He has brute strength, lateral mobility and a knack for locating the ball. He can also penetrate against the run…The Cowboys got a very good player.” http://thelandryhat.com/2016/03/13/cedric-thornton-best-bang-dallas-cowboys-buck/

Agreed. Good stuff.

 

[waldoputty]

Agreed. Good stuff.

Corso, dont come home late tonight or mom will be mad.
You know what can happen...

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

This many per player.

What is the difference between a bag and a sack?