I'm going to say 2-3 but not to worry.
The Cowboys defense has too many new parts to dominate early in the season. I'm going to say that it will take 4-5 games for them to get things together.
I think we will see steady improvement from there and the Cowboys will go 8-4 after the first five games to finish 10-7.
However, it's not the record or the seed that will matter. The Cowboys will own the momentum and make it to their first conference championship game in 30 seasons.
And then what? I don't know. The revelation hasn't hit me yet.