Predict the FA Mindset

[xwalker]

The problem has been the team has gone bargin hunting and signed scrubs that dont ever pan out instead of singing one really good player. Here is an example of what I am talking about.

Cowboys sign four lower tier players and gives each of them $3 million...……….they all suck and are non-factors for the season.

Better plan...………...give the $12 million you just spent on scrubs to one really good tier one player that will contribute.

Same money spent, but do you see the difference?

I get your concept but they have not had many true fails.

Low cost contributors in 2018:
DT Woods
OG Sua-Filo
OT Flemming

They primarily had 2 significant talent based fails on free agents in the past several years:

CB Nolan Carroll (4M, played 1.5 games then cut)

DT Thorton (4M per contract, ended up with 9M and played 1 year) - Not completely useless but big drop in performance from his previous season with the Eagles.

A 3rd consideration is WR Hurns. He was a disappointment; although they knew he was not a #1 type WR but by default he ended up starting the season as the #1. They tried to sign a high priced free agent WR but wisely didn't get into a bidding war for Watkins. They like Hurns enough to want him back.

The concept is to fill holes in the roster with stopgap free agents and to add the core talent through the draft.

 

[Alexander]

Some of us may remember how it used to be. New owner, dynamic head coach and aggressive organization with the best scouts money could buy taking on the old guard NFL full of family-owned businesses that done things the same way for decades. We won three world titles in four years taking on the establishment.

Now, we ARE the establishment. We are a family-owned business that has done things, the same way, for decades.

It should not take a bunch of predictive powers to forecast how this is going to roll out.

Just as soon as people understand that, then they can reconcile the dissonance.

You just witnessed how an upset player can school an old guard franchise run by a bunch of family members who only are where they are because of being born that way. They are not equipped to cope with how players think these days. They may think they do because "look at all this money we've paid out" but the reality is they have paid those that are good soldiers and made members of the family. And others see that. Murray thought he was a made man, he wasn't. Lawrence thought he was a made man. He is finding out he is not as well.

Meanwhile, the Wittens and the Lees of the world are taken care of.

This won't be a fun ride unless somebody has had themselves a huge and radical change of heart.

 

[75boyz]

Some of us may remember how it used to be. New owner, dynamic head coach and aggressive organization with the best scouts money could buy taking on the old guard NFL full of family-owned businesses that done things the same way for decades. We won three world titles in four years taking on the establishment.

Now, we ARE the establishment. We are a family-owned business that has done things, the same way, for decades.

It should not take a bunch of predictive powers to forecast how this is going to roll out.

Just as soon as people understand that, then they can reconcile the dissonance.

You just witnessed how an upset player can school an old guard franchise run by a bunch of family members who only are where they are because of being born that way. They are not equipped to cope with how players think these days. They may think they do because "look at all this money we've paid out" but the reality is they have paid those that are good soldiers and made members of the family. And others see that. Murray thought he was a made man, he wasn't. Lawrence thought he was a made man. He is finding out he is not as well.

Meanwhile, the Wittens and the Lees of the world are taken care of.

This won't be a fun ride unless somebody has had themselves a huge and radical change of heart.

Extremely well written and accurate. Nice reality check post.

 

[slick325]

Some of us may remember how it used to be. New owner, dynamic head coach and aggressive organization with the best scouts money could buy taking on the old guard NFL full of family-owned businesses that done things the same way for decades. We won three world titles in four years taking on the establishment.

Now, we ARE the establishment. We are a family-owned business that has done things, the same way, for decades.

It should not take a bunch of predictive powers to forecast how this is going to roll out.

Just as soon as people understand that, then they can reconcile the dissonance.

You just witnessed how an upset player can school an old guard franchise run by a bunch of family members who only are where they are because of being born that way. They are not equipped to cope with how players think these days. They may think they do because "look at all this money we've paid out" but the reality is they have paid those that are good soldiers and made members of the family. And others see that. Murray thought he was a made man, he wasn't. Lawrence thought he was a made man. He is finding out he is not as well.

Meanwhile, the Wittens and the Lees of the world are taken care of.

This won't be a fun ride unless somebody has had themselves a huge and radical change of heart.

Great post Alexander...sadly, spot on.

 

[birdwells1]

They don't have principles. That's giving this front office way too much credit. Those guys are idiots. They simply have been mentally scarred into inactivity from so many personnel mistakes over the years. They've gone from one extreme to the other because that vast area in the middle would require them being legit and identifying value on the market. They have no ability to do that.

The Cowboys front office is more interested in looking smart than being smart. The reason they don't go after high quality free agents is because inactivity sometimes look to be prudent, wise and responsible.
They are never second guess about high cost free agents that they didnt sign that perform well versus free the high cost ones they would sign and possibly underperform.

 

[Verdict]

I'm detecting a touch of impatience across the board, like people want the Cowboys to already be making moves they can't actually make until free agency begins.

It's easy now to sit around and say we never do anything in FA, but this is our first year with lots of space, the DLaw situation is coming to a head, etc. Normally I wouldn't predict a big start, as they've been frugal to get to this point.

This year, I dont know what to expect. They seem to be considering win-now mode, and they might only be one "win-now" offseason from a SB run, like we've seen many teams do this last decade.

I wouldn't be surprised by another quiet start that locks us into overpaying DLaw. But this year, I also wouldn't be surprised by early fireworks like a trade of DLaw for picks followed by a high profile, cheaper DL signing and a safety, ET or any of a number of more affordable, great options.

I expect something in the middle is most likely. More aggressive than usual, but still sticking to their principles. For example, I think we'll see more "bridge players", but in the 5 to 10M range instead of the 2 to 4M range. I think there will also be an attempt to trade DLaw and recover a 1st round pick, which I expect will fail.

So I'm not asking you to predict what the Cowboys will do, but in general, what do you think their approach will be, or their intensity/aggressiveness, when the talk is over and 2019 Free Agency opens up?

We don't have a ton of cap space. We will extend Dak, and Amari and try to resign Tank. That probably won't happen. If it does free agency is largely over for the Cowboys other than extending our other guys.

Look for a significant trade possibility. Tank, or Byron but there might be others. I think Tank either signs in the next few days or he is moved for picks.

 

[Verdict]

Teams don't let high priced free agents walk unless 1. They don't have the cap room or 2. The player isn't worth the cap hit. That's another reason why high prices free agents often bomb. The team that let them go knows more about them than you do.

 

[Risen Star]

It's 12pm EST.

The Cowboys are legally tampering the crap out of the league right now.

 

[Teague31]

It's 12pm EST.

The Cowboys are legally tampering the crap out of the league right now.

It’s more likely they are prepping their “honest offer” press conference

 

[Risen Star]

Prediction - The Patriots sign Geoff Swaim as the heir apparent to Gronk.

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

I just want to freak out. Do something big.

 

[Risen Star]

These reporters are doing a terrible job of announcing all our signings.