Predictability

[rd26]

Let me say, I've been reasonably happy with the play calling this season. This last game, however, has me completely baffled.

I decided to take a closer look at the first 2 1/2 quarters of Thursday's game. All these numbers are up until the 7:29 mark of the third quarter, when the iggles scored to go up 30-10. The offense was pretty much pass and pray from that point on.

1st down: 13 run, 1 pass
The lone pass was in the 2 minute drill before the half, the fumble by Beasley. That pretty much leaves us 13 for 13 running the ball on first downs.

2nd and 6 or more: 6 pass, 1 run
The lone running play came on a 2nd and 6.

2nd and 5 or less: 5 run, 1 pass
The lone pass was an 8 yard check down to Witten on 2nd and 1 with the score 23-7 I believe.

3rd down: 6 pass 2 runs
Ran the ball on a 3rd and 1 and a 3rd and 3. Converted once.

I guess maybe the logic was that they will never expect us to do exactly what is expected every single time.

There was plenty of blame to go around Thursday, but I've got no sane explanation for this play calling.

Any ideas?

 

[Beast_from_East]

Let me say, I've been reasonably happy with the play calling this season. This last game, however, has me completely baffled.

I decided to take a closer look at the first 2 1/2 quarters of Thursday's game. All these numbers are up until the 7:29 mark of the third quarter, when the iggles scored to go up 30-10. The offense was pretty much pass and pray from that point on.

1st down: 13 run, 1 pass
The lone pass was in the 2 minute drill before the half, the fumble by Beasley. That pretty much leaves us 13 for 13 running the ball on first downs.

2nd and 6 or more: 6 pass, 1 run
The lone running play came on a 2nd and 6.

2nd and 5 or less: 5 run, 1 pass
The lone pass was an 8 yard check down to Witten on 2nd and 1 with the score 23-7 I believe.

3rd down: 6 pass 2 runs
Ran the ball on a 3rd and 1 and a 3rd and 3. Converted once.

I guess maybe the logic was that they will never expect us to do exactly what is expected every single time.

There was plenty of blame to go around Thursday, but I've got no sane explanation for this play calling.

Any ideas?

Yea, the offense is starting to get predictable......................we run almost every time on first down and throw on second down...............this is a pattern that has been repeated in multiple games this year.

You can get away with that when you are playing scrub sub 500 teams, but when you play good teams with winning records this comes back to bite you on the arse.

 

[Hoov]

I wonder if the eagles play calling was so much different. I don't think they did much to disguise their intentions. We just couldn't stop them

 

[Alexander]

I wonder if the eagles play calling was so much different. I don't think they did much to disguise their intentions. We just couldn't stop them

They have an offense based on options and play action. There is a big difference between how their whole scheme works versus what Dallas does.

The frustrating part is even when we did run play action off of a run set, we sent two into a route.

 

[Beast_from_East]

I wonder if the eagles play calling was so much different. I don't think they did much to disguise their intentions. We just couldn't stop them

I am afraid you might be right......................the Eagles are so much better than we are that it doesn't matter if we know what their play is or not.

When the Eagles played the Packers however, it was a different story.

 

[rd26]

They have an offense based on options and play action. There is a big difference between how their whole scheme works versus what Dallas does.

The frustrating part is even when we did run play action off of a run set, we sent two into a route.

The only times we ran play action it was is in down and distance situations that dictated a pass

I wonder if the eagles play calling was so much different. I don't think they did much to disguise their intentions. We just couldn't stop them

Eagles ran 10 times and passed 14 times on 1st down during the same time frame if my quick math is correct.

 

[blumayne38]

i just don't understand this offense, I get so pissed at the management of this team at times its pathetic to have guys that can contribute but aren't given a chance to shine

 

[blumayne38]

Its just not that easy to run plays that you dont draw in the original game plan

 

[CF74]

Let me say, I've been reasonably happy with the play calling this season. This last game, however, has me completely baffled.

I decided to take a closer look at the first 2 1/2 quarters of Thursday's game. All these numbers are up until the 7:29 mark of the third quarter, when the iggles scored to go up 30-10. The offense was pretty much pass and pray from that point on.

1st down: 13 run, 1 pass
The lone pass was in the 2 minute drill before the half, the fumble by Beasley. That pretty much leaves us 13 for 13 running the ball on first downs.

2nd and 6 or more: 6 pass, 1 run
The lone running play came on a 2nd and 6.

2nd and 5 or less: 5 run, 1 pass
The lone pass was an 8 yard check down to Witten on 2nd and 1 with the score 23-7 I believe.

3rd down: 6 pass 2 runs
Ran the ball on a 3rd and 1 and a 3rd and 3. Converted once.

I guess maybe the logic was that they will never expect us to do exactly what is expected every single time.

There was plenty of blame to go around Thursday, but I've got no sane explanation for this play calling.

Any ideas?

Yeah the coaches are trying to hide Romo's injury by leaning on the run more. If you noticed when he did try to pass they either fell short, fluttered, or just didn't have any velocity. He was off worse than ever, kinda like Game 1 all over again...

 

[Oh_Canada]

This run first identity is a load of crap. Teams aren't dumb and if your tendency's skew one way or another teams will adjust.
The Cowboys would be better served balancing run/pass on first down. I think they became a little too arrogant, this isn't the 90's anymore....the talent difference is much closer.

 

[Idgit]

We've reached a point where we're complaining about the offense doing what's reasonable all the time, and actually want them instead to be throwing in running situations and running in throwing situations? I'm not sure what the issue is here.

 

[LandryFan]

We've reached a point where we're complaining about the offense doing what's reasonable all the time, and actually want them instead to be throwing in running situations and running in throwing situations? I'm not sure what the issue is here.

It' called "the benefit of hindsight". It didn't work that game, therefore we know they should have done something else...in hindsight. Truth is, the Cowboys have been very run-oriented on first down all year, and quite successfully, in general. They've averaged over five yards per carry which has led to very manageable 2nd an 3rd down situations. Having said that, I'll bet we see more of a first down mix Thursday night.

 

[rd26]

We've reached a point where we're complaining about the offense doing what's reasonable all the time, and actually want them instead to be throwing in running situations and running in throwing situations? I'm not sure what the issue is here.

The key word is ALL. I have no problem with having an identity, but this team is nowhere near good enough to COMPLETELY throw away any attempt at keeping the opposing team off balance.

Even with a hobbled qb, if he's healthy enough to drop back and pass on 3rd and 10, he's healthy enough to run play action a coulple of times on 2nd and 4 when we might actually fool someone.

 

[Idgit]

The key word is ALL. I have no problem with having an identity, but this team is nowhere near good enough to COMPLETELY throw away any attempt at keeping the opposing team off balance.

Even with a hobbled qb, if he's healthy enough to drop back and pass on 3rd and 10, he's healthy enough to run play action a coulple of times on 2nd and 4 when we might actually fool someone.

I don't know. I think 'keeping a team off balance' is just something fans say. It's like going to Vegas and keeping your blackjack dealer off balance by making a low probability bet. It's low-probability for a reason. I'd rather just play the odds and hope we execute better.

 

[rd26]

I don't know. I think 'keeping a team off balance' is just something fans say. It's like going to Vegas and keeping your blackjack dealer off balance by making a low probability bet. It's low-probability for a reason. I'd rather just play the odds and hope we execute better.

Its funny you mentioned Vegas. I was just about to compare play calling to poker.

Reckless will get you beat more times than not.

Consistent and conservative will win you some hands, but you will never be great.

Great poker players not only know the odds, they know the value of being at least somewhat unpredictable.

 

[visionary]

I don't know. I think 'keeping a team off balance' is just something fans say.

Good one "coach"
Coaches love to be predictable, they want the defense to know what's coming

Unfortunately the rest of us don't have the benefit of 20 years of coaching in the NFL

 

[Seven]

We've reached a point where we're complaining about the offense doing what's reasonable all the time, and actually want them instead to be throwing in running situations and running in throwing situations? I'm not sure what the issue is here.

Well said idgit.

Welcome to Hard Copy........

The TMZ Zone..

 

[sureletsrace]

I want to throw up when we're in 2nd and short and we're running the ball instead of looking to go deep.

 

[Idgit]

Good one "coach"
Coaches love to be predictable, they want the defense to know what's coming

Unfortunately the rest of us don't have the benefit of 20 years of coaching in the NFL

It's one thing to show run in a running situation and surprise the other team with a pass every once in a while. It's another thing to look at the snap counts by down and distance and claim that you want to see a trend of your team passing it in running situations. Especially after a steady diet of posts claiming nothing but a desire to run the ball and to not abandon that philosophy. Well, we see that that commitment on the part of the coaches has already outlasted the resolve of some of the fans.

And nobody has answered the question yet: if you're able to be successful doing what the averages suggest you should do in a particular down and distance, what's the argument for not playing the averages again? It'd be one thing if we weren't a successful offense overall, and were in a position to try anything because nothing's working. But when you score more points each possession than all but a handful of teams in the entire league, what's the urgency to start calling low-probability plays for the down and distance? Gotta give me something more than 'we'll catch 'em napping, I know it!'

 

[kevm3]

Our offense is extremely predictable. We run on first down 95% of the time. We've just been able to 'out-talent' teams, but when you face the top notch teams, it doesn't work.