Prescott and the Perception of Pressure

[percyhoward]

In response to questions about how other QB performed under pressure, and to give some context to my earlier thread.

Passer rating, 2017
Clean pocket vs. (when pressured)
Smith 115.0 (76.6)
Brees 114.1 (59.2)
Goff 112.0 (75.7)
Wentz 110.3 (81.7)
Keenum 109.3 (78.5)
Cousins 108.5 (76.7)
Wilson 108.4 (69.3)
Stafford 107.1 (75.0)
Brady 106.7 (97.0)
Rthlsbrgr 103.5 (62.1)
Rivers 102.4 (77.1)
Ryan 101.5 (66.2)
Carr 100.3 (39.1)
Winston 98.7 (90.7)
Prescott 95.5 (67.1)

2016 Prescott 118.0 (75.8)

Dak's rating from a clean pocket went down 22.5 points from 2016. Did it have something to do with playing in so many more games when he was pressured often? IOW, in games when he was getting pressured often, did the perception of pressure affect his performance even on plays when he wasn't pressured? And if so, is that normal?

To find out, I isolated the games in which these QB were pressured on 40% or more of their dropbacks. 40% is a very high number, as the league average is around 33%.

Number of games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks (week of season)
9 Wilson (2 3 5 7 8 10 12 14 15)
8 Prescott (2 4 8 10 11 12 15 16)
7 Rivers (2 5 6 7 10 12 16)
6 Keenum (2 4 6 10 12 14)
4 Brady (5 8 12 15)
4 Cousins (1 7 10 13)
4 Wentz (4 6 11 12)
3 Stafford (4 15 16)
3 Smith (4 6 8)
2 Goff (2 11)
2 Rthlsbrgr (4 15)
2 Winston (13 16)
1 Ryan (9)
1 Carr (16)
0 Brees

Using only the games listed above, I looked at just the plays on which the QB was not pressured, and compared those attempts to similar non-pressured plays from all the rest of their games -- the games in which they were pressured less than 40% of the time.

CLEAN POCKET ONLY
< 40% pressure games vs. (≥ 40% pressure games)
Smith 119.6 (94.5)
Prescott 119.0 (74.0)
Goff 114.9 (90.2)
Keenum 114.2 (102.3)
Brees 114.1 (--)
Wilson 109.4 (107.8)
Wentz 109.2 (113.5)
Stafford 107.3 (106.1)
Cousins 106.3 (113.4)
Rthlsbrgr 103.4 (104.6)
Brady 102.7 (117.7)
Ryan 100.3 (117.5)
Rivers 99.7 (106.1)
Carr 99.5 (117.5)
Winston 95.4 (120.4)

Here's what goes into Dak's 119 rating.
106 of 152 (69.7%) 1206 yd (7.9 ypa) 13 td 1 int 119.0

That's exceptional QB play, and it's all from this season. The problem is the number in parentheses, which is his passer rating from a clean pocket in games when he gets pressured on at least 40% of his dropbacks. That 74 rating puts Dak on an island in an ocean of his own.

 

[TheHerd]

That's some serious work Percy, thanks. Two big takeaways to me. Dak is spooked by the pressure. And the OL was not elite this year.

 

[TonyS]

Even if nothing above is remotely correct, I salute you, sir. If it is correct, then you've figured out Dak pretty well and backed up purely observational speculation by most of us with objective data. Well done!

PS this thread should be stickied...

 

[Kevinicus]

Pressure is not uniform. There is a huge difference between pressure at 4 seconds and pressure at 2 seconds. Reasons for pressure are varied as well.

 

[percyhoward]

Pressure is not uniform. There is a huge difference between pressure at 4 seconds and pressure at 2 seconds. Reasons for pressure are varied as well.

This is more about the cumulative effect of pressure of any type on Dak's performance even when not pressured.

 

[DrunkWithPower]

Great write-up!!!

i mentioned this many moons ago in several threads and peeps didn't believe me. The loss of left tackle smith for several games this year has mentally beat down our QB. He is hearing foot steps on every play even with a clean pocket. His passes are hurried and his precision is not good. Add to that most of the season has been one big O-line experience plugging random people in the left guard position and you have a disaster. Our worst move this off-season was letting Leary walk, and anyone who doesn't believe that hasn't been watching the games. We've lost 2 seasons in the last 4 years, one for letting our stud running back walk and another for the left guard. Maybe the FO now understands football isn't necessarily plug and play at every position.

I hate to think we need to use another high round pick on the O-line, but a high quality left guard might just put us back in the hunt. Dak needs some confidence and good line play will give that back to him. Getting a couple of good receivers would probably help as well.

 

[Direwolf63]

So in games when Dak is heavily pressured he is hearing footsteps even when they aren't there. And it affects his play negatively. Much more than other QB's.

Can this be coached out of him? And if so, who is going to do it? Nobody on the current staff.

 

[Kevinicus]

This is more about the cumulative effect of pressure of any type on Dak's performance even when not pressured.

Yes, that is interesting.

Obviously, QBs struggle more when under pressure. It's good to see the impact on Dak on non-pressure plays when there has been pressure.

However, I think it's also important to look at what is causing pressure be that poor line play, poor recognition of the defense, blown assignments, holding the ball too long, poor movement in the pocket, etc.

 

[superonyx]

This matches with what ours eyes have been telling us.
What is disturbing is how the coaches have not seen this and adjusted formations and personnel to keep the pressure off Dak.
This also shows the power having the threat of Zeke is for this offense.

 

[Rockport]

That's some serious work Percy, thanks. Two big takeaways to me. Dak is spooked by the pressure. And the OL was not elite this year.

More than any of the is his WR’s suck.

 

[superonyx]

Yes, that is interesting.

Obviously, QBs struggle more when under pressure. It's good to see the impact on Dak on non-pressure plays when there has been pressure.

However, I think it's also important to look at what is causing pressure be that poor line play, poor recognition of the defense, blown assignments, holding the ball too long, poor movement in the pocket, etc.

Why are all the reasons you list under what is causing pressure seem to be Dak's faults except poor line play?
Maybe not having a home run threat like Zeke in the backfield allows defense to get after the QB without fear of being gashed by the run.
Maybe poor offensive design is a factor...
Maybe its the predictable nature of the offense where opposing defense all know are plays?

 

[percyhoward]

So in games when Dak is heavily pressured he is hearing footsteps even when they aren't there. And it affects his play negatively. Much more than other QB's.

He's a unique case, it seems. In the other games when he isn't pressured, he's right at the top of the league.

 

[4lifecowboy]

More than any of the is his WR’s suck.

You clearly don't have an agenda

 

[Gameover]

That 74 rating puts Dak on an island in an ocean of his own.

Rattle him and he doesn't recover.

I'm sure some of the issue is also the pass catchers.

 

[Rockport]

You clearly don't have an agenda

If an opinion about the lack of talent at the WR position is an agenda, so be it. BTW, your opinion on Dak would also be an agenda.

 

[ShortRound]

Knowing this, how could the coaches have helped Dak? (trying to learn)

 

[Rockport]

Rattle him and he doesn't recover.

I'm sure some of the issue is also the pass catchers.

Rattle Brady and he struggles as well. Just like any QB under pressure. SMH you people are ignorant.

 

[Rockport]

Knowing this, how could the coaches have helped Dak? (trying to learn)

They only thing would be to get better WR’s. They couldn’t so there was no help available for Dak. His mistakes were mostly due to him trying to overcome the offenses deficiencies. Same thing Romo had to go through.

 

[ShortRound]

They only thing would be to get better WR’s. They couldn’t so there was no help available for Dak. His mistakes were mostly due to him trying to overcome the offenses deficiencies. Same thing Romo had to go through.

But playing with the players we had this year, we can't simply go and buy a WR, and hope it clicks. (or can we?)
I would assume coaching plans for scenarios where we have no RB, Oline is in trouble, etc.

 

[Gameover]

Dak made plays under pressure in the first half of the Rams game. The second half he came unglued.

Soon to be highly paid OG, got his *** kicked by a real All Pro