Prescott vs other notable rookie passers

[percyhoward]

To qualify for a season passer rating, a player needs 224 pass attempts. (With 248 attempts already, Prescott has qualified for a season, even if he never takes another snap in 2016.) Since the 1970 merger, there are six QB who have ranked in the top 10 in passer rating in their rookie season. One of those, Jim Kelly, was a 26-year old "rookie" who had already won an MVP award in the USFL.

Here are the five true rookies with their season rankings.

Marino 3rd 1983
Griffin 3rd 2012
Wilson 4th 2012
Prescott 4th 2016 (through 8 games)
Roethlisberger 5th 2004

And here they are ranked by their passing yards as a percentage of their team's total offense when they were playing. QB rushing yards are also listed, along with the QB's percentage of total offense including his rushing yards.

Marino 1983 63.0%
pass 2234
run 1313 (Marino 45) 64.3%

Prescott 2016 60.4%
pass 2020
run 1322 (Prescott 125) 64.2%

Griffin 2012 55.3%
pass 3200
run 2587 (Griffin 815) 69.4%

Wilson 2012 54.7%
pass 3118
run 2579 (Wilson 489) 63.3%

Roethlisberger 2004 54.2%
pass 2727
run 2306 (Rthbgr 144) 57.0%

 

[DogFace]

The 60.4% stands out to me. Outstanding. Only Marino is better and he's top 7 all time at the posistion.

 

[SDCowboy]

Dak is really, really good. And not just rookie-good.

 

[Iago33]

I'm curious how many 300 yard passing games those guys had in those years. I assume they played it careful with them like we are doing with Dak--at least in their rookie years.

 

[percyhoward]

I'm curious how many 300 yard passing games those guys had in those years. I assume they played it careful with them like we are doing with Dak--at least in their rookie years.

I wouldn't say we were "playing it careful" with Dak. In the 1st half of games this year, he's averaging 143 yards passing, which ranks 8th in the NFL. Prescott's 253 yards per game is higher than the league average, and would be even higher if we didn't have so many 2nd-half leads.

1st half passing yards per start
(Marino's numbers not available)
2016 Prescott 143
2012 Wilson 109
2004 Roethlisberger 107
2012 Griffin 105

Teams with rookie QB are 51-51 all time when passing for 300+ yards, and the most 300-yard games for a rookie in a win is 3 (Bulger, Griffin, Luck). In fact, the most 250-yard games for a rookie in a win is 4 (Bulger, Luck). The most 200-yard games for a rookie in a win is an interesting list.

8 Luck 2012
7 Prescott 2016*
6 Ryan 2008
5 Winston 2015
5 Bridgewater 2014
5 Griffin 2012
5 Wilson 2012
5 Bulger 2002

*through 8 games

 

[Iago33]

I'm curious how many 300 yard passing games those guys had in those years. I assume they played it careful with them like we are doing with Dak--at least in their rookie years.

I looked up Marino and Griffin.
MARINO played 11 games and had one 300-yard game.
GRIFFIN played 16 and had 3 games of 300+.

Marino averaged over 300 yard per game his second year.

 

[Iago33]

I wouldn't say we were "playing it careful" with Dak. In the 1st half of games this year, he's averaging 143 yards passing, which ranks 8th in the NFL. Prescott's 253 yards per game is higher than the league average, and would be even higher if we didn't have so many 2nd-half leads.

1st half passing yards per start
(Marino's numbers not available)
2016 Prescott 143
2012 Wilson 109
2004 Roethlisberger 107
2012 Griffin 105

Teams with rookie QB are 51-51 all time when passing for 300+ yards, and the most 300-yard games for a rookie in a win is 3 (Bulger, Griffin, Luck). In fact, the most 250-yard games for a rookie in a win is 4 (Bulger, Luck). The most 200-yard games for a rookie in a win is an interesting list.

8 Luck 2012
7 Prescott 2016*
6 Ryan 2008
5 Winston 2015
5 Bridgewater 2014
5 Griffin 2012
5 Wilson 2012
5 Bulger 2002

*through 8 games

I know 300 yard games don't equal wins. I'm just wondering if Prescott can win when it becomes a shoot out rather than relying on the running game I'm not knocking him, but rookies are limited.

 

[percyhoward]

I'm just wondering if Prescott can win when it becomes a shoot out rather than relying on the running game.

A legitimate question. That, and how far can we go in the playoffs with a rookie QB.