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Most Overrated
1. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
While most left the combine in awe of Waynes' speed, the discussion among PFF analysts centered on the fact that his 20-yard shuttle (4.39 seconds) was slower than his 40 time (4.31), a rare feat we couldn't recall seeing. That poor change-of-direction ability was evident on tape, and is a problem at a position where change of direction is vital.
Moreover, for someone who possessed the recovery speed to not have to worry about getting beat deep, Waynes was fairly average breaking on intermediate routes and had only three pass breakups on 59 targets. His mark for yards per coverage snap allowed was just about average, at 1.04, but he was exposed against the most talented passing team the Spartans faced all year (Oregon). In that game in Week 2, he yielded 113 yards on seven targets, including a touchdown.
2. Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
It seems as though many look at Armstead's measurables (6-foot-7, 292 pounds, 5.1-second 40-yard dash) and his position (3-4 defensive end) and can't foresee him becoming anything other than Calais Campbell. What has gotten overlooked for the most part, however, is that Campbell had as many sacks in his sophomore season of college (10.5) as Armstead had his entire Oregon career.
Defensive line is one of the positions where physical freaks can easily dominate in college with little to no technique. That is why it's concerning that Armstead produced well outside the upper echelon of defensive linemen. The Oregon defensive end graded out as our No. 20 interior lineman against Power 5 schools, and posted middling numbers in run-stop percentage (7.1) and pass-rushing productivity (6.0) for the season. Those are worrisome numbers for a potential top-15 pick.
3. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
This one comes with a caveat, as we think Scherff could possibly be a fantastic guard, it's just that if you plug him in at left tackle next season you'll be sorely disappointed. It's difficult to see the Outland Trophy winner ever being an effective pass protector on the edge. Scherff wasn't close to the top of our tackle rankings, even after facing a fairly weak slate of edge rushers in the Big Ten. The Iowa tackle's 96.2 pass-blocking efficiency was 62nd out of the 95 draft-eligible tackles.
People have fallen in love with Scherff's ability to plant a defender to the turf, but when asked to play in space on the edge, Scherff lacked the length and feet quickness to regularly engage defenders. His skill set translates much better to guard in the NFL, but even there he would be something of a question mark.
4. Bud Dupree, LB, Kentucky
After one of the most impressive performances in the history of the combine and a productive senior season, it is easy to see why Dupree has become a consensus first-rounder among draft analysts. However, when we dug deeper into his stats and film, there were some red flags that popped up.
The most meaningful one is that only three of his 36 pressures came against tackles with positive pass-blocking grades for the season. While he posted an overall respectable pass-rushing productivity mark of 9.8, that number dropped to 7.1 against SEC competition. A third of those pressures against SEC competition came versus Missouri's right tackle, Taylor Chappell, who had the second-worst pass-blocking grade in the country.
It's also worth noting that despite being 6-4, 269 pounds, Dupree didn't generate a single pressure off of a bull rush last season. Those stats paint the picture of a player who feasted on weak competition and then put up impressive workout numbers, rather than a complete pass-rusher.
5. Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
Funchess is a tweener some project as a "move" tight end in the NFL. Our analysts saw a different story, as we thought he had neither the radical size advantage to outmuscle corners nor the quickness to consistently beat linebackers. To top it off, he showed very little promise as a run-blocker.
This means Funchess is likely limited to a "big slot" role like Marques Colston. However, playing the slot requires a certain level of consistency that Funchess simply doesn't possess yet, and he'll have to improve in that area. The 6-4, 232-pound receiver had an 8.8 percent drop rate (8.3 percent was the NCAA average) to go along with a handful of misses on attempted contested catches.
6. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
Goldman has many of the traits you look for in a nose tackle at the NFL level. He holds up well versus double-teams and has the strength to control most one-on-one blocks. He was by no means special in that regard, however, and was fairly poor at shedding and making the stop himself. In fact, his 5.3 run-stop percentage was well below average for this class.
Run defense aside, if you are taking a nose tackle in the first round, he better provide some complementary pass-rushing ability, and Goldman did not last season. The Florida State defensive lineman finished with a 5.5 in pass-rushing productivity, a figure far less than half that of the leader among D-linemen, Stanford's Henry Anderson (12.1).
7. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Everyone loves speed at the receiver position because it is so hard to find, but consider the following: 38 receivers have run sub-4.4 40-yard dashes since the 2009 combine, and only six are now a top-two receiver on their respective teams. The main takeaway is that speed can help, but one needs to do so many other things well to be a complete receiver in the NFL.
With Dorsett, we didn't see much besides elite speed. He's undersized at 5-10, 185 pounds, and is still an unrefined route runner. Of his 67 targets last season, 40 came on deep routes (go, deep crosser, post and corner). He'll have to run a much more varied route tree at the next level. DeSean Jackson goes deep as often as anyone in the NFL, and even he was targeted on downfield routes only 37 percent of the time last season.
There's certainly a lot of potential here, but with all the other proven talent at receiver in this draft, taking Dorsett in the first round would be a substantial gamble.
8. Shaq Thompson, S/LB, Washington
People have been in love with Thompson's athleticism since he was a five-star recruit coming out of high school in Sacramento. However, all the athleticism in the world won't make up for poor instincts as a linebacker, and Thompson has yet to show he can make the necessary reads for the position. His 7.3 run-stop percentage was 41st among 58 draft-eligible starting inside linebackers, and he was an overall ineffective player against the run, outside of forcing and recovering fumbles.
Thompson's skill set translates better to safety, as he was smooth in coverage and has nickelback experience, but it's hard to feel comfortable picking a player early for a position you've never seen him play.
9. P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State
After watching all of Williams' plays this season, our analysts agreed that the most accurate description of him is "inconsistent." Inconsistency at cornerback in the NFL is synonymous with getting benched, as defensive coordinators won't put up with the types of highs and lows Williams experienced last season.
While the Florida State corner was aggressive and productive around the line of scrimmage, he gave up tons of ground on intermediate and deep routes when receivers got a hint of initial space. Williams actually graded out negatively in coverage, in no small part due to his silly habit of not wrapping up receivers after the catch. He missed 11 tackles in coverage last season, and his ratio of a miss on every 6.2 attempts was 79th out of 101 starters in the class.
10. Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
McKinney is a fantastic athlete whose size (6-4, 246 pounds) and explosiveness (a 4.66 in the 40-yard dash, a 40.5-inch vertical leap) have him at or near the top of most inside linebacker rankings. The trouble is that all of our analysts who broke down his games agreed they wouldn't trust McKinney as anything more than a two-down linebacker. That still has value, but not early-round value.
McKinney's 0.81 yards per coverage snap was below the class average of 0.71, and he made a paltry five stops in coverage all season, 66th among inside linebackers (Eric Kendricks led with 28). His biggest problem was bringing down receivers in space, as he had only seven solo tackles in coverage, compared to five missed tackles.
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Most Underrated
1. Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State
If there is a prospect in this draft who looks like he's simply too small to be regarded as a top pick, it's Lockett. A big-play threat who produced 559 yards on passes 20 yards or more downfield in 2014, he plays much bigger than his 5-foot-11, 175-pound frame suggests, going up to win the ball at the catch point when needed. An impressive route runner, he has quick feet that allow him to quickly get open and find holes in zones well. In a deep receiving class, he could fall further than his talents suggest, giving someone a steal on Day 2 or later.
2. Henry Anderson, DL, Stanford
For all the hype surrounding USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams, Anderson was arguably the best defensive lineman in the Pac-12 and in this entire draft class during the 2014 season. He's aggressive, making himself tough to block for opposing offensive linemen, and stood out against the run and as a pass-rusher, registering 57 total hurries in 14 games. He'll need to work on his technique at the next level, but his raw skills are impressive.
3. Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas
In a class in which many of the highest-ranked edge rushers come with question marks, Flowers could be a bargain for the right team. He is a well-rounded player, registering 61 total pressures in 2014 as a pass-rusher but doing his best work against the run. While some have questioned his ability to get pressure at the next level, he'll hit the ground running in the NFL as a run defender, utilizing the power that proved too much for most offensive linemen at the college level.
4. Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson
Lack of size is the biggest knock on Jarrett, but a lot of what he shows on tape suggests he'll be able to get past that and be productive at the next level. Despite his size (6-foot, 304), he is a powerful player, with a quick first step that gave plenty of offensive linemen lots of problems last season. He's a productive pass-rusher, registering 33 total pressures in 2014, but his best work came against the run, where all 30 of his solo tackles resulted in a defensive stop. Quick hands help him shed blocks well, while his general quickness allowed him to make plays it looked like he shouldn't have been able to make. An ideal fit as a 3-technique, he's likely to make some team very happy when it drafts him.
5. Troy Hill, CB, Oregon
Not even the highest-regarded cornerback on his own team (that would be Ifo Ekpre-Olomu), Hill could wind up being the best pro in a cornerback class that has plenty of question marks from the top down. Hill's off-field issues will drop him farther down draft boards, but on the field his talent shines through. He's not the biggest cornerback in the class, but he opens his hips well and runs smoothly, with a good feel for where the receiver is. Reacting quickly to come up and make tackles, he looks best-suited as a zone corner, but he was more than capable in man coverage during his time at Oregon as well, finishing the season tied for 12th in this draft class by allowing just 0.78 yards per coverage snap.
6. Tony Lippett, WR, Michigan State
While Lockett is hurt by his size, there is no such problem for Lippett. Instead, it's his rather unconventional style that at times leaves him looking a little bit awkward as a receiver. That doesn't mean he can't be successful, however, and when you watch him on film, he's the type of player who beats cornerbacks even when it looks like he's been beaten in the route. Somewhat similar to Stevie Johnson, he's the type of player who routinely finds his way to the ball after losing out early in the play, which helped him finish the year with a yards per route run average of 3.65, the second-most in this draft class next to Alabama's Amari Cooper.
7. Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson
Inside linebackers like TCU's Paul Dawson figure to go ahead of Anthony in the draft, but Anthony might be the most well-rounded player at the position. His marginal change-of-direction ability is the biggest knock on him, but he shows off a nice burst and reads plays well. When he gets to ball carriers he almost always gets them on the ground, missing just two tackles from Week 2 on, after an out-of-character three missed tackles in Week 1. He was an effective blitzer in 2014, too, and looked comfortable in coverage. All of that makes him an ideal three-down linebacker in today's NFL.
8. Rob Havenstein, OT, Wisconsin
Havenstein isn't getting nearly as much hype as other tackle prospects in this draft, but he is the type of player who could be found as late as Day 3 and end up developing into one of the best offensive linemen in the draft. He needs to work on his pass protection, tying for just 60th in this draft class with a pass-blocking efficiency rating of 96.3 percent last season, but he already looks very good as a run-blocker. He impresses at the second level, and when he got there against linebackers in 2014, it was game over, swallowing them up and finishing his blocks well. He shows quick feet, which helps when he is asked to pull, and he did a good job setting up cutback blocks on zone runs.
9. James Sample, S, Louisville
Teams in need of a safety would be wise to wait until the Day 2 range and grab Sample over some of the higher-ranked prospects at the position. A well-rounded defensive back who didn't shy away from run support, he did his best work in coverage, tying for sixth in this draft class by allowing a reception just once every 31.1 snaps in coverage. He showed quick decision-making to match his solid overall athleticism. He's not the fastest safety in the class, but his speed isn't an issue, either, and he's more than adequate as a tackler.
10. Christian Ringo, DT, Louisiana-Lafayette
Another undersized lineman, Ringo might only ever be a sub-package player in the NFL, but he has the potential to be a very good one. He can be overpowered, which isn't surprising given his size (6-1, 277), but his first step is often too good for opposing offensive linemen to handle. That led to him having a pass-rushing productivity rating of 15.8 from the 238 pass-rushing snaps he played at 3-4 defensive end last season, the highest in the nation. He's particularly impressive rushing the passer from the nose tackle spot, where his first step beat plenty of centers in 2014, but he likely won't hear his name called early in the draft. However, in the right system, he has the potential to be productive early in his career.
Good list, although I think a lot of these issues were more significant earlier in the draft process and have somewhat evened out now.
A guy like Stephone Anthony has moved way up most rankings now after initially being ranked as a mid/late round guy.
Shaq Thompson initially was ranked as an early 1st rounder but that has settled out to a mid 2nd.
Some of them are still way over/under rated like Armstead.
