News: Projecting 2021 Comp Picks

[J12B]

I have felt all along Quinn will result in 3rd. Two 3rds, 5th & 6th.

2 3rd round comp picks would be nice and would make for a really fund day 2 of next year's draft.

 

[Wood]

2 3rd round comp picks would be nice and would make for a really fund day 2 of next year's draft.

would set up well to get S.

 

[Kaiser]

2 3rd round comp picks would be nice and would make for a really fund day 2 of next year's draft.

Considering those picks would be around the spots we got Gallimore and Robinson....

 

[ksg811]

Here's a quick breakdown of how the comp pick formulas work.

1. All players on active rosters at the end of the season are ranked in ascending order by contract AAV, including any bonuses or incentives earned that year. Players are awarded points per their ranking, where the player with the lowest salary is awarded 1 point and continues upwards.

2. Additional points are awarded for honors and playing time, awarded as follows:

A. 1st team All NFL by PFWA or AP 1st team All Pro - 20 points
B. Selected All Conference by PFWA (except if All NFL/All Pro - 5 points
C. 1 point for each percentage of offensive/defensive points played, with a 25% minimum. Punters get 1 point per punt and an additional point per punt inside the 20. Kickers get 2 points per FGA and an additional point per FGM.
​

The sum of 1 and 2 represents a player's final value. That value is then measured as a percentile of the entire league to determine round.

3rd round - Top 5%
4th round - Top 10%
5th Round - Top 15%
6th round - Top 25%
7th round - Top 35%

NOTE: This is only to determine each player's relative round. Final compensatory picks for a team include netting CFA's lost and gained.

In the specific case of Robert Quinn, here's a quick breakdown as to why he'll likely net a 4th round pick.

Purely in terms of AAV, Robert Quinn ranks 93rd in the league. That alone puts him in the 3rd round. There are usually somewhere around 1,950 players at year's end on team rosters and listed as part of the comp formula. Top 5% would be the top 98, so Quinn falls within that, though very close.

Last year, Robert Quinn played his highest percentage of snaps since 2014 at 60%. He did miss 2 games though, and of the games he played, he averaged 67% of snaps. Unfortunately, that is the nature of his position, and I don't foresee that rising much in Chicago, despite their lack of EDGE depth.

Of the 25 players ranked behind Quinn, 11 of them played over 90% of their team's snaps last season and would project to do so again this year. Those 11 alone would push Quinn down to 104 and in the 4th round range. There were quite a few others who were well into the 80s in snap % that could push him down further. Given 60% was his highest in 6 years and his injury history, I don't foresee Robert Quinn playing enough to net a 3rd round pick.

 

[lkelly]

Here's a quick breakdown of how the comp pick formulas work.
...

Very well explained.

I don't see a line that says:

D. Gut feeling by randos on a message board
or
E. Wishful optimism from Cowboys fans

Maybe the league will rethink their formula and adjust accordingly.

 

[big dog cowboy]

For what's it's worth...

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

3 Jones
4 Quinn
5 Cobb
7 Heath

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I have felt all along Quinn will result in 3rd. Two 3rds, 5th & 6th.

He has to do A LOT to get that 3rd it seems.

 

[LandryFan]

Probably some truth to this. Seems like some good teams are getting multiple picks though.

You'er right about that. But just as bad teams have very few good players to lose in FA, good teams have good players and let them go if conditions warrant (Ie Byron Jones and Quinn, for example). I feel safe in saying that good teams consider the comp pick they'll receive when deciding whether to let players walk...it's all part of the decision process.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

Heath finally did something good for the team.

LLLOOOLLL

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So are these guesses based on how they think these guys will play this season as well as contract? Like Byron is expected to play a lot of snaps so they have him listed as a 3rd rounder?

people have figured out the system and how its tiered based on salary. the issue is not all FA are signed so the baseline is not yet established.

there is some grey area where games played comes into effect but unless you are on those borders it is a very good predictor.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Here's a quick breakdown of how the comp pick formulas work.

1. All players on active rosters at the end of the season are ranked in ascending order by contract AAV, including any bonuses or incentives earned that year. Players are awarded points per their ranking, where the player with the lowest salary is awarded 1 point and continues upwards.

2. Additional points are awarded for honors and playing time, awarded as follows:

A. 1st team All NFL by PFWA or AP 1st team All Pro - 20 points
B. Selected All Conference by PFWA (except if All NFL/All Pro - 5 points
C. 1 point for each percentage of offensive/defensive points played, with a 25% minimum. Punters get 1 point per punt and an additional point per punt inside the 20. Kickers get 2 points per FGA and an additional point per FGM.
​

The sum of 1 and 2 represents a player's final value. That value is then measured as a percentile of the entire league to determine round.

3rd round - Top 5%
4th round - Top 10%
5th Round - Top 15%
6th round - Top 25%
7th round - Top 35%

NOTE: This is only to determine each player's relative round. Final compensatory picks for a team include netting CFA's lost and gained.

In the specific case of Robert Quinn, here's a quick breakdown as to why he'll likely net a 4th round pick.

Purely in terms of AAV, Robert Quinn ranks 93rd in the league. That alone puts him in the 3rd round. There are usually somewhere around 1,950 players at year's end on team rosters and listed as part of the comp formula. Top 5% would be the top 98, so Quinn falls within that, though very close.

Last year, Robert Quinn played his highest percentage of snaps since 2014 at 60%. He did miss 2 games though, and of the games he played, he averaged 67% of snaps. Unfortunately, that is the nature of his position, and I don't foresee that rising much in Chicago, despite their lack of EDGE depth.

Of the 25 players ranked behind Quinn, 11 of them played over 90% of their team's snaps last season and would project to do so again this year. Those 11 alone would push Quinn down to 104 and in the 4th round range. There were quite a few others who were well into the 80s in snap % that could push him down further. Given 60% was his highest in 6 years and his injury history, I don't foresee Robert Quinn playing enough to net a 3rd round pick.

the playing time is calculated after the following season and what they do with their new teams. otherwise you are correct.

IOW, we want Quinn and Jones to be healthy all year long next season.

 

[ksg811]

the playing time is calculated after the following season and what they do with their new teams. otherwise you are correct.

IOW, we want Quinn and Jones to be healthy all year long next season.

Correct. My breakdown was on the assumption everyone stayed around last year’s snap %. My apologies if that wasn’t clear.