Punt play with gunner completely uncovered

[Nightman]

If at this point, you don't understand why it would have been a dumb decision to audible to a fake punt in that particular situation, then I fully doubt you'll comprehend any reasonable explanation presented on this board.

I'm inclined to think that you're trolling at this point, and I'll leave it at that.

Have a good one.

The old "I was called on my incorrect thinking so to save face I will call you a troll card"

That is so lame, so lame.

 

[Nightman]

He was intentionally uncovered. That should tell you something. It wasn't a blown play by Miami, the guy drifted over and covered the gunner before the snap without ever taking his eyes off of the backfield.

Why would anyone in their right mind take the kind of risk that would entail under those circumstances? You mentioned risk/reward. The risk there was giving the ball to the Dolphins at the 16 yard line, or getting it picked off and run in for a quick TD. All that to avoid punting? Really?

Intentional or not he is 15 yards away. DAL controls when to snap the ball. Snap it to the up back and he immediately fires it out to the split end. The defender cannot get there in time.

Fish in a barrel. Avoiding punts is a big deal and a big play like this would increase the probability of scoring and thus winning by a large amount.

 

[Reality]

While that is true, it shouldn't take two grown men, who are athletically gifted and getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year at a minimum, to practice enough to throw and catch an uncontested pass for 10 yards or so. If they can't do that, then one doesn't need to be the punter and the other doesn't need to be the gunner.

The coach should set the bar higher than saying I don't trust those guys to execute a simple pitch and catch. If it is more than a simple pitch and catch, then the guy gunner isn't really technically uncovered.

The Colts failed attempt to convert that fake punt drastically changed the momentum of the game, especially since we scored soon after. In that game, the gunner turned his head right before the ball arrived if I remember correctly. It's a stupid mistake and one all players are warned against even at the high school level, but it still happens. To me, throwing the ball on a punt is no different than a fake punt. You don't do it in your own territory unless you have nothing to lose, meaning your season is over or you are way behind. Now, once you reach the 50 or beyond, it's another story.

 

[Nightman]

The Colts failed attempt to convert that fake punt drastically changed the momentum of the game, especially since we scored soon after. In that game, the gunner turned his head right before the ball arrived if I remember correctly. It's a stupid mistake and one all players are warned against even at the high school level, but it still happens. To me, throwing the ball on a punt is no different than a fake punt. You don't do it in your own territory unless you have nothing to lose, meaning your season is over or you are way behind. Now, once you reach the 50 or beyond, it's another story.

We won that game 42-7. The Colts knew they had to take chances and it was worth the risk. I remember my stomach dropped when I saw the wide open WR.

The win probability went from 83% to 87% after their failed attempt but that isn't earth shattering. The only thing it changed was Dez' TD was for only 19 yards instead of 59 yards.

 

[Nightman]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000447269/McDonald-drops-fake-punt-pass

 

[Reality]

We won that game 42-7. The Colts knew they had to take chances and it was worth the risk. I remember my stomach dropped when I saw the wide open WR.

The win probability went from 83% to 87% after their failed attempt but that isn't earth shattering. The only thing it changed was Dez' TD was for only 19 yards instead of 59 yards.

You are basing all of your opinions on hypotheticals, which are great, but rarely work out, especially when you add more of them together. A lot would have changed had the fake punt worked. The game was still close at the time so the final score is irrelevant at that point. It's one thing to say statistical probability drops only a few percentage points after a single play, but there are endless other variables that enter the mix. That pass play to Dez very well would have been a different play had they punted and the defense would have likely be in a different defense that far away from the end zone. If they had punted, what if the Cowboys return guy muffed the catch and lost the ball? What if he caught it and on the first play, Murray fumbled? There are so many variables to consider that trying to use what-if's is a pointless argument.

The bottom line is they took a huge risk, it back fired and and took a close game and threw it away. If the Cowboys had thrown the ball to the gunner and it failed, most of the people griping right now would have been complaining how stupid Garrett was to attempt that on the Cowboys end of the field. I can tell you even if it worked, I would have thought less of Garrett for doing it. While I detest his conservative play calling, especially over the 7 losses in a row, trying to be non-conservative at point like that would have been twice as foolish.

 

[Nightman]

You are basing all of your opinions on hypotheticals, which are great, but rarely work out, especially when you add more of them together. A lot would have changed had the fake punt worked. The game was still close at the time so the final score is irrelevant at that point. It's one thing to say statistical probability drops only a few percentage points after a single play, but there are endless other variables that enter the mix. That pass play to Dez very well would have been a different play had they punted and the defense would have likely be in a different defense that far away from the end zone. If they had punted, what if the Cowboys return guy muffed the catch and lost the ball? What if he caught it and on the first play, Murray fumbled? There are so many variables to consider that trying to use what-if's is a pointless argument.

The bottom line is they took a huge risk, it back fired and and took a close game and threw it away. If the Cowboys had thrown the ball to the gunner and it failed, most of the people griping right now would have been complaining how stupid Garrett was to attempt that on the Cowboys end of the field. I can tell you even if it worked, I would have thought less of Garrett for doing it. While I detest his conservative play calling, especially over the 7 losses in a row, trying to be non-conservative at point like that would have been twice as foolish.

Everyone has their own opinions but fake punts are by their nature risky. There is no 'correct' time to call for one except when it is not expected. DAL had their starting D on the field when MIA punted in the 4th from DAL's territory. DAL was ready for a fake when MIA needed it most. If MIA is going to dare me to make a big play and keep the ball, I'm going to take it.

I always Double Down on a 10 or 11 against a 6. It is not without risk but all the variables point to taking the chance. If the dealer wins I know it was still a smart move. It is smart to put the most money up when you have the best chance of winning. When things get desperate the chances you take are just that, desperate.

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

Yes. Good point! Why would our coaches expect our players to be competent? No use in trying to set any standards! This is an excellent idea! I wish I would have come up with this!

It's your lucky day, I already have my Turkey in the oven.

 

[DandyDon52]

Yes. Good point! Why would our coaches expect our players to be competent? No use in trying to set any standards! This is an excellent idea! I wish I would have come up with this!

its a process ! competence comes much later, right now we are in the fight & dont blink phase.