Punt the Ball

[Croomraider]

No seriously PUNT THE BALL!!
I don't undertand why every team uses their gawd awful metrics to GO FOR IT on every 4th down. Mostly once they've crossed the 50, they all go for it... all of em!!

Has one person, one human, not an alien or a fantasy football know-it all arm-chair coach, but an actual human provided data that shows if you punt the ball on 4th down, on your opponent's side of the field.... you stand an amazing chance of pinning the team inside their own TEN!

Subsequently, if said team is pinned inside the ten, they run 3 times and punt from a bad angle. Resulting in your team getting the ball back at the SAME 50 YARD LINE, but 1st and 10.... not 4th and 10!!

READING RAINBOW --- the more you know

 

[VaqueroTD]

You must have been AWOL during the season. Big Mac is the Go For It Coach. Much debate on these forums and analytics for some of those decisions. Controversial at first, especially for some of us old schoolers, but forum consensus by the end of season seemed to be it was worth it.

Lord help the next coach if he's conservative on these calls. As a fanbase, we are already used to it and expect it now. Can see half the threads dedicated to that guy.

 

[Croomraider]

I think the analytics system is flawed. Meaning it's not processing the fact of, if you pin and three and out the other team, you will get the ball in the same spot, 1st and 10.
I'm ok going it for it in certain situations but very rarely and definitely not every single time the team passes the 50.
And never ever would I go for it on my side of the field.

 

[John813]

I mean, for me it depends on the situation. 1st drive of the game, and it's 4th and 2 on the 45? Punt it.
4th and 2 in the 4th, down by 7. I'm not opposed for going for it.

Was it the Broncos game(sorry already erased it from my mind) where we went for it on 4th once or twice and it backfired?

 

[Vtwin]

Analytics has some inherent flaws in that anytime you distill an action plan from a data set compiled of the outcomes of many similar situations, all of the nuances of the current situation you're dealing with can't be accounted for.

If I were deciding whether to punt or not, the only factors I'm considering are those specific to this particular situation.

I absolutely would go for it though, if I thought the situation favored that decision.

 

[Croomraider]

I totally agree with you, great points go for it if necessary... i think the problem though is currently no one evaluates circumstance.. they close their eyes and go for it on every chance!!! And this backfires a ton!

 

[Flamma]

I mean, for me it depends on the situation. 1st drive of the game, and it's 4th and 2 on the 45? Punt it.
4th and 2 in the 4th, down by 7. I'm not opposed for going for it.

Was it the Broncos game(sorry already erased it from my mind) where we went for it on 4th once or twice and it backfired?

It was. Probably not the only game, but early on in that game I think we missed twice. We gave them momentum and a short field. Momentum we never got back. That early in the game, it's just wrong. The cons outweigh the pros.

 

[Truck]

If you have a strong D then going for it at 4th and short makes sense sometimes. But if your D and rushing sucks, you have to punt.

 

[JD_KaPow]

No seriously PUNT THE BALL!!
I don't undertand why every team uses their gawd awful metrics to GO FOR IT on every 4th down. Mostly once they've crossed the 50, they all go for it... all of em!!

Has one person, one human, not an alien or a fantasy football know-it all arm-chair coach, but an actual human provided data that shows if you punt the ball on 4th down, on your opponent's side of the field.... you stand an amazing chance of pinning the team inside their own TEN!

Subsequently, if said team is pinned inside the ten, they run 3 times and punt from a bad angle. Resulting in your team getting the ball back at the SAME 50 YARD LINE, but 1st and 10.... not 4th and 10!!

READING RAINBOW --- the more you know

Of course the analytics take field position and what follows into account; what makes you think they ignore that? What you describe is certainly one of the outcomes. But it's better to go for it even though that's one of the possible punt outcomes.

 

[JD_KaPow]

If you have a strong D then going for it at 4th and short makes sense sometimes. But if your D and rushing sucks, you have to punt.

If your D stinks, then the value of the field position you gain by a punt is reduced, because the other team is more likely to just gobble those yards up. And the value of having the ball, with your offense on the field and your defense off of it, is increased, because, well, your defense stinks. If your D stinks, you need to go for it more often.

 

[Truck]

If your D stinks, then the value of the field position you gain by a punt is reduced, because the other team is more likely to just gobble those yards up. And the value of having the ball, with your offense on the field and your defense off of it, is increased, because, well, your defense stinks. If your D stinks, you need to go for it more often.

Your right. Good point.

Hey- how do I give your post a like or do I have to wait some because I am new?

 

[LACowboysFan1]

Your right. Good point.

Hey- how do I give your post a like or do I have to wait some because I am new?

You have to wait a while. There will be a like button in the lower right of this box when you can like posts...

 

[Croomraider]

If your D stinks, then the value of the field position you gain by a punt is reduced, because the other team is more likely to just gobble those yards up. And the value of having the ball, with your offense on the field and your defense off of it, is increased, because, well, your defense stinks. If your D stinks, you need to go for it more often.

If your D is good, especially if you're playing at home, you should punt.
If you pin the punt inside the 5. Home crowd amped up. Opposing team will run it twice.
Good chance to get the ball right back with a three in out. And also get the ball back, almost right where you left off before punting.
Might be old school, I think of it as just smart football.

 

[JD_KaPow]

If your D is good, especially if you're playing at home, you should punt.
If you pin the punt inside the 5. Home crowd amped up. Opposing team will run it twice.
Good chance to get the ball right back with a three in out. And also get the ball back, almost right where you left off before punting.
Might be old school, I think of it as just smart football.

The other guy was arguing that if your D is bad, you should punt. You're arguing that if your D is good, you should punt.
And that's sort of the problem with the old-school thiinking. People say, "oh, it's all so situation-dependent blah blah," and yet they always always come down on the side of being more conservative than the analytics say. I've seen the arguments every which way: "good defense, punt for these reasons...bad defense, punt for these reasons...good offense, punt...bad offense, punt...home, punt...road, punt...early in the game, punt...late in the game, punt..." I have never once seen anyone say, "Oh, the analytics say you should punt here, but given the situation, I think they should go for it." It's always the other way.
And that's the lesson of analytics. It's not that NFL coaches have historically erred a little bit on the side of being conservative. It's that the league was overwhelmingly, absurdly, laughably conservative. It's finally changing, as it always does eventually when new better ways are developed and understood. But there's always a backlash.

 

[EST_1986]

No seriously PUNT THE BALL!!
I don't undertand why every team uses their gawd awful metrics to GO FOR IT on every 4th down. Mostly once they've crossed the 50, they all go for it... all of em!!

Has one person, one human, not an alien or a fantasy football know-it all arm-chair coach, but an actual human provided data that shows if you punt the ball on 4th down, on your opponent's side of the field.... you stand an amazing chance of pinning the team inside their own TEN!

Subsequently, if said team is pinned inside the ten, they run 3 times and punt from a bad angle. Resulting in your team getting the ball back at the SAME 50 YARD LINE, but 1st and 10.... not 4th and 10!!

READING RAINBOW --- the more you know

No nuts no glory

 

[Croomraider]

No nuts no glory

Lol true!! but we already have a pro bowl punter that we should have franchise tagged. Punt our wayyyy to the championship!