TLCC
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Tony Romo
Like him or hate him Tony Romo will be the Dallas Cowboys starting QB for the next couple of years. Romo needs to cut down on the turnovers and needs to become more of a leader for this team to take a step towards the Super Bowl, uh I mean actually winning a playoff game.
Let's Evaluate 2007 Tony Romo versus 2008. *The 2008 numbers were projected if Romo played all 16 games.
C% - Yards - Y/A -TD- INT Sa QBR Fum FumLost
64.4 - 4211 - 8.1 - 36 - 19 - 24 - 97 - 10 - 2
61.3 - 4244 - 7.7 - 32 - 17 - 25 - 91 - 16 - 9
The biggest problem with Tony Romo as everyone knows about is his recklessness with the ball in his hands. If Wade Wilson or Jason Garrett can help with this part of the game. As perspective in 176 starts Peyton Manning has lost 17 fumbles (One every 10.35 games). In 39 starts Tony Romo has lost 12 fumbles (1 fumble lost every 3.25 games). Now I am not saying that Tony Romo can become Peyton Manning they play the position differently. But he needs to be held accountable.
Tony Romo's turnover per game ratio last year was 1.625 which is incredibly high. Given that the only QB that I researched that was even close to him was Brett Favre at 1.5 turnover's per game.
Here are the stat's for Turnovers Per Game in 2008. Based on the statistics you would expect the QB to turn over the ball once per game. Listed are my list of top 10 QB's this past year and their turnover per game ratio from highest to lowest.
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Ben Roethlisberger - 1.375
Kurt Warner - 1.3125
Jay Cutler - 1.250
Drew Brees - 1.125
Donovan McNabb - 1.000
Matt Cassel - 1.000
Philip Rivers - 0.938
Peyton Manning - 0.750
Eli Manning - 0.750
Matt Ryan - 0.750
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Last year I do not believe Tony Romo was a top 10 QB, whether it was due to injuries, decision making or OL problems he just wasn't an elite QB in my opinion. He was good QB but not making the playoffs and making that many turnovers dropped him to the 10 - 15 range of starting QB's. Can Romo become a top 10 QB again? Yes, but he needs to be more accountable for his turnovers. If Romo can be around the 16 - 20 range for turnovers without compromising his big play ability he will be a top 10 QB maybe even top 5 if he wins the big one.
Backup QB
Brad Johnson is done. Cut him save 2 million in cap space. Use that cap space to sign yourselves a new backup QB. The max we should pay our backup should be around 2.5 Million against the cap.
Leftwich, Batch & Garcia would be excellent fits but for one reason or another I don't see them joining the Cowboys. Batch is happy with the Steelers he is a hometown boy. Leftwich is gonna want to start. Garcia is not coming to Dallas as long as TO is here. So none of these guys will be coming to Dallas. Get it, got it, good.
Warner, Cassell, Collins are all going to get the opportunity to start somewhere else, so let's not even discuss them.
So who do the Cowboys have left to sign as a backup?
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Berlin, Kyle Boller, Dan Orlovsky, Chris Simms, Joey Harrington, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, JT O'Sullivan, Brooks Bollinger, & Brian St. Pierre. There are likely others that might become available Alex Smith, Jon Kitna, John Beck … but they aren't available now so let's not bother talking about them.
The thing about backup QB is that it takes a different mentality to be a backup QB than a starter. You have to be able to help the starting QB evaluate defenses and lend advice to him when you aren't on the field. That's why Brad Johnson was kept on the roster this year. That being said you still need to be able to play. In ways a backup QB is sort of like an extra QB coach. This is why guys like; Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown & David Klinger do not make it they are talented but not smart. I think that it takes a lot more than physical ability to become a backup QB. Trent Dilfer was an excellent backup QB he had the knowledge of the game and the desire to be a starter but was willing to help the team if he was put into a backup's role. Right now I don't think that JP Losman & Rex Grossman have what it takes from the mental side. Sure Losman would have the physical abilities closest to Tony Romo, but I wouldn't trust him from the day to day standpoint to help this team win. Plus his name is too close to Loss Man. Grossman has never been accused of being mentally strong. This is why I put the following guys in my 5 people that I would like as backup QB.
1. Chris Simms. I honestly wasn't sold on Simms before the year as a backup. Chris Simms has a career 71.2 QB Rating. In 2005, before nearly died on the field, he posted a 81.4 QB rating. This year even though Vince Young was listed as the backup QB, Simms was the backup QB. He was the one putting in the extra efforts preparing with Collins. He was working with the coaches identifying defenses. The Cowboys may have made a big mistake by not signing him as our backup QB last year. Oh and by the way the dude is tough, did I mention he almost died on the field for the Buc's.
2. Kyle Boller. He's been a backup. He's been a starter. You know the one thing he's been consistent whether he's a starter or a backup he'll complete about 55-60 % of his passes with a 70% QB rating whether he's a backup or a starter. I think of all the former first round picks he is the most ready to be a backup QB. His completion % has improved every year, (51.8, 55.6, 58.4, 60.0, 61.1) with the exception of this year due to injury. His last three years, that he played, QB Ratings; 71.8, 104, 75.2. Do I think Boller will win us a championship? No, but let's be honest neither will anyone that we pickup to be our backup. I am picking the people that I think are best suited for a backup QB's role. Also, there is no way he is resigning with the Ravens. So he is available.
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't see how he signs with us over the Bengals. But if he is on the market I think he would be a capable backup. His year's stats 8 TDS 9 INTS 1905 YDS and 70. QB Rating aren't something to write home about. After his first game against the Browns he played decent. He is a game manager though. Even with Johnson and Houshmandzadeh he only averaged just over 5 yards per passing attempt. Tony Romo averages around 8. The biggest plus is he's a Harvard boy so he and their Ivy league schools.
4. Patrick Ramsey. I think Ramsey knows what he is and that's a backup QB. Since 2004 his completion % is over 60%. His career TD - INT is 35 - 30. His career yards per attempt is 6.5. The one negative on Ramsey is he takes his fair share of sacks. He only has 24 starts and has been sacked 79. Some of those came when he filled in but still that's a lot. By comparison Tony Romo has started 39 games and has been sacked 65 times.
5. Joey Harrington. I wouldn't hate Harrington. That said I wouldn't love him as a backup either. He would be a cheap option though probably 1 Mil. I found it weird that he couldn't find work as a backup last year. He is not a starter. He throws more INT's than TD's. But I think that he has enough skills to be a decent backup. His completion % has improved every year 50, 55.8, 56, 57, 57.5 & 61.8. His QB rating for the last 4 years he played was decent 78, 72, 68, 77 are what you would expect from your 2nd stringer. I think that former 1st rounders take a while to realize becoming a backup is what they need to do to get a paycheck in the NFL. I would say that last year was an eye opener for Harrington. Much like David Carr's year in Carolina was an eye opener for him. BTW - Carr was my number one option prior to him signing with the Giants.
Sleeper: Brian St. Pierre. I have seen him play one preseason game but he looked alright. He seems like he is a smart QB. I read that he has leadership qualities and has earned the respect from his coaching staff to be able to call trick plays during key playoff games. I have no stats to back this guy up though.
Draft
My 5 Draft QB's that I like and Round projected in by NDS.
1. Nathan Brown - 6'1 220 - 4.79 - Central Arkansas (NDS 6) - Is a leader and intelligent. Has been compared to Romo.
2. Rhett Bomar - 6'2 224 - 4.75 - Sam Houston State (NDS 3/4) - I have reservations about him because of character and I don't think taking a QB before the 5th would be smart. But he could turn out to be a starter.
3. Stephen McGee 6'3 235 - 4.79 - Texas A&M (NDS 5) - He has the tools to be a starter.
4. Hunter Cantwell - 6'5 235 - 4.89 - Louisville (NDS 6-7) - He has the size and arm just not much experience as a starter.
5. Jason Boltus - 6'3 225 - 4.76 - Hartwick (NDS UDFA) - Love the arm and athletic ability.
That's all I got to say about that.
TLCC
Like him or hate him Tony Romo will be the Dallas Cowboys starting QB for the next couple of years. Romo needs to cut down on the turnovers and needs to become more of a leader for this team to take a step towards the Super Bowl, uh I mean actually winning a playoff game.
Let's Evaluate 2007 Tony Romo versus 2008. *The 2008 numbers were projected if Romo played all 16 games.
C% - Yards - Y/A -TD- INT Sa QBR Fum FumLost
64.4 - 4211 - 8.1 - 36 - 19 - 24 - 97 - 10 - 2
61.3 - 4244 - 7.7 - 32 - 17 - 25 - 91 - 16 - 9
The biggest problem with Tony Romo as everyone knows about is his recklessness with the ball in his hands. If Wade Wilson or Jason Garrett can help with this part of the game. As perspective in 176 starts Peyton Manning has lost 17 fumbles (One every 10.35 games). In 39 starts Tony Romo has lost 12 fumbles (1 fumble lost every 3.25 games). Now I am not saying that Tony Romo can become Peyton Manning they play the position differently. But he needs to be held accountable.
Tony Romo's turnover per game ratio last year was 1.625 which is incredibly high. Given that the only QB that I researched that was even close to him was Brett Favre at 1.5 turnover's per game.
Here are the stat's for Turnovers Per Game in 2008. Based on the statistics you would expect the QB to turn over the ball once per game. Listed are my list of top 10 QB's this past year and their turnover per game ratio from highest to lowest.
--------------------------------------
Ben Roethlisberger - 1.375
Kurt Warner - 1.3125
Jay Cutler - 1.250
Drew Brees - 1.125
Donovan McNabb - 1.000
Matt Cassel - 1.000
Philip Rivers - 0.938
Peyton Manning - 0.750
Eli Manning - 0.750
Matt Ryan - 0.750
-------------------------------------
Last year I do not believe Tony Romo was a top 10 QB, whether it was due to injuries, decision making or OL problems he just wasn't an elite QB in my opinion. He was good QB but not making the playoffs and making that many turnovers dropped him to the 10 - 15 range of starting QB's. Can Romo become a top 10 QB again? Yes, but he needs to be more accountable for his turnovers. If Romo can be around the 16 - 20 range for turnovers without compromising his big play ability he will be a top 10 QB maybe even top 5 if he wins the big one.
Backup QB
Brad Johnson is done. Cut him save 2 million in cap space. Use that cap space to sign yourselves a new backup QB. The max we should pay our backup should be around 2.5 Million against the cap.
Leftwich, Batch & Garcia would be excellent fits but for one reason or another I don't see them joining the Cowboys. Batch is happy with the Steelers he is a hometown boy. Leftwich is gonna want to start. Garcia is not coming to Dallas as long as TO is here. So none of these guys will be coming to Dallas. Get it, got it, good.
Warner, Cassell, Collins are all going to get the opportunity to start somewhere else, so let's not even discuss them.
So who do the Cowboys have left to sign as a backup?
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Berlin, Kyle Boller, Dan Orlovsky, Chris Simms, Joey Harrington, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, JT O'Sullivan, Brooks Bollinger, & Brian St. Pierre. There are likely others that might become available Alex Smith, Jon Kitna, John Beck … but they aren't available now so let's not bother talking about them.
The thing about backup QB is that it takes a different mentality to be a backup QB than a starter. You have to be able to help the starting QB evaluate defenses and lend advice to him when you aren't on the field. That's why Brad Johnson was kept on the roster this year. That being said you still need to be able to play. In ways a backup QB is sort of like an extra QB coach. This is why guys like; Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown & David Klinger do not make it they are talented but not smart. I think that it takes a lot more than physical ability to become a backup QB. Trent Dilfer was an excellent backup QB he had the knowledge of the game and the desire to be a starter but was willing to help the team if he was put into a backup's role. Right now I don't think that JP Losman & Rex Grossman have what it takes from the mental side. Sure Losman would have the physical abilities closest to Tony Romo, but I wouldn't trust him from the day to day standpoint to help this team win. Plus his name is too close to Loss Man. Grossman has never been accused of being mentally strong. This is why I put the following guys in my 5 people that I would like as backup QB.
1. Chris Simms. I honestly wasn't sold on Simms before the year as a backup. Chris Simms has a career 71.2 QB Rating. In 2005, before nearly died on the field, he posted a 81.4 QB rating. This year even though Vince Young was listed as the backup QB, Simms was the backup QB. He was the one putting in the extra efforts preparing with Collins. He was working with the coaches identifying defenses. The Cowboys may have made a big mistake by not signing him as our backup QB last year. Oh and by the way the dude is tough, did I mention he almost died on the field for the Buc's.
2. Kyle Boller. He's been a backup. He's been a starter. You know the one thing he's been consistent whether he's a starter or a backup he'll complete about 55-60 % of his passes with a 70% QB rating whether he's a backup or a starter. I think of all the former first round picks he is the most ready to be a backup QB. His completion % has improved every year, (51.8, 55.6, 58.4, 60.0, 61.1) with the exception of this year due to injury. His last three years, that he played, QB Ratings; 71.8, 104, 75.2. Do I think Boller will win us a championship? No, but let's be honest neither will anyone that we pickup to be our backup. I am picking the people that I think are best suited for a backup QB's role. Also, there is no way he is resigning with the Ravens. So he is available.
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't see how he signs with us over the Bengals. But if he is on the market I think he would be a capable backup. His year's stats 8 TDS 9 INTS 1905 YDS and 70. QB Rating aren't something to write home about. After his first game against the Browns he played decent. He is a game manager though. Even with Johnson and Houshmandzadeh he only averaged just over 5 yards per passing attempt. Tony Romo averages around 8. The biggest plus is he's a Harvard boy so he and their Ivy league schools.
4. Patrick Ramsey. I think Ramsey knows what he is and that's a backup QB. Since 2004 his completion % is over 60%. His career TD - INT is 35 - 30. His career yards per attempt is 6.5. The one negative on Ramsey is he takes his fair share of sacks. He only has 24 starts and has been sacked 79. Some of those came when he filled in but still that's a lot. By comparison Tony Romo has started 39 games and has been sacked 65 times.
5. Joey Harrington. I wouldn't hate Harrington. That said I wouldn't love him as a backup either. He would be a cheap option though probably 1 Mil. I found it weird that he couldn't find work as a backup last year. He is not a starter. He throws more INT's than TD's. But I think that he has enough skills to be a decent backup. His completion % has improved every year 50, 55.8, 56, 57, 57.5 & 61.8. His QB rating for the last 4 years he played was decent 78, 72, 68, 77 are what you would expect from your 2nd stringer. I think that former 1st rounders take a while to realize becoming a backup is what they need to do to get a paycheck in the NFL. I would say that last year was an eye opener for Harrington. Much like David Carr's year in Carolina was an eye opener for him. BTW - Carr was my number one option prior to him signing with the Giants.
Sleeper: Brian St. Pierre. I have seen him play one preseason game but he looked alright. He seems like he is a smart QB. I read that he has leadership qualities and has earned the respect from his coaching staff to be able to call trick plays during key playoff games. I have no stats to back this guy up though.
Draft
My 5 Draft QB's that I like and Round projected in by NDS.
1. Nathan Brown - 6'1 220 - 4.79 - Central Arkansas (NDS 6) - Is a leader and intelligent. Has been compared to Romo.
2. Rhett Bomar - 6'2 224 - 4.75 - Sam Houston State (NDS 3/4) - I have reservations about him because of character and I don't think taking a QB before the 5th would be smart. But he could turn out to be a starter.
3. Stephen McGee 6'3 235 - 4.79 - Texas A&M (NDS 5) - He has the tools to be a starter.
4. Hunter Cantwell - 6'5 235 - 4.89 - Louisville (NDS 6-7) - He has the size and arm just not much experience as a starter.
5. Jason Boltus - 6'3 225 - 4.76 - Hartwick (NDS UDFA) - Love the arm and athletic ability.
That's all I got to say about that.
TLCC