QBR Ratings

[BlindFaith]

I haven't seen much discussion on this. Maybe I missed it. But there seems to be a lot of merit to these rankings.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

RKPLAYERPASS EPARUN EPASACK EPAPEN EPATOTAL EPAACT PLAYSQB PARQB PAATOTAL QBR
1Josh McCown, CHI41.35.9-5.22.544.626956.834.5---85.1
2Peyton Manning, DEN117.3-2.2-10.85.4109.7757151.088.2---82.9
3Philip Rivers, SD91.8-1.6-14.93.779.0671102.246.5---71.7
4Drew Brees, NO96.93.1-24.75.180.4776114.950.5---70.5
5Nick Foles, PHI48.65.3-15.23.342.042961.425.7---69.0
6Aaron Rodgers, GB42.46.9-14.62.937.636551.821.5---68.7
7Colin Kaepernick, SF64.218.6-23.12.562.259283.834.7---68.6
8Jay Cutler, CHI42.36.0-10.20.138.241555.821.4---66.4
9Andrew Luck, IND42.821.2-21.412.655.372086.626.8---62.0
10Matt Ryan, ATL77.24.0-27.510.363.977390.926.8---61.1

11Tom Brady, NE76.11.6-25.812.864.774988.025.9---61.1
12Tony Romo, DAL69.10.8-20.53.552.964372.519.1---59.5
13Russell Wilson, SEA62.611.6-28.10.346.360667.216.9---58.9
14Cam Newton, CAR51.921.0-30.95.447.465267.012.9---56.2
15Andy Dalton, CIN55.14.6-16.65.248.471572.813.5---55.8

 

[DanTanna]

My QBR goes something like this, with an actual verbal evaluation included:

RKPLAYERPASS EPARUN EPASACK EPAPEN EPATOTAL EPAACT PLAYSQB PARQB PAATOTAL QBR
1Tony Romo, DAL69.10.8-20.53.552.964372.519.1---1000.0 awesome
2Peyton Manning, DEN117.3-2.2-10.85.4109.7757151.088.2---82.9 awesome
3Philip Rivers, SD91.8-1.6-14.93.779.0671102.246.5---71.7 sux
4Drew Brees, NO96.93.1-24.75.180.4776114.950.5---70.5 awesome
5Nick Foles, PHI48.65.3-15.23.342.042961.425.7---69.0 becoming awesome
6Aaron Rodgers, GB42.46.9-14.62.937.636551.821.5---68.7 awesome
7Colin Kaepernick, SF64.218.6-23.12.562.259283.834.7---68.6 sux
8Jay Cutler, CHI42.36.0-10.20.138.241555.821.4---66.4 sux
9Andrew Luck, IND42.821.2-21.412.655.372086.626.8---62.0 jury is still out
10Matt Ryan, ATL77.24.0-27.510.363.977390.926.8---61.1 sux

11Tom Brady, NE76.11.6-25.812.864.774988.025.9---61.1 awesome
12Josh McCown, CHI41.35.9-5.22.544.626956.834.5---60.1 sat up in coffin, will lay back down soon
13Russell Wilson, SEA62.611.6-28.10.346.360667.216.9---58.9 sux
14Cam Newton, CAR51.921.0-30.95.447.465267.012.9---56.2 sux
15Andy Dalton, CIN55.14.6-16.65.248.471572.813.5---55.8 sux

Those are official evaluations.

 

[BlindFaith]

My QBR goes something like this, with an actual verbal evaluation included:

RKPLAYERPASS EPARUN EPASACK EPAPEN EPATOTAL EPAACT PLAYSQB PARQB PAATOTAL QBR
1Tony Romo, DAL69.10.8-20.53.552.964372.519.1---1000.0 awesome
2Peyton Manning, DEN117.3-2.2-10.85.4109.7757151.088.2---82.9 awesome
3Philip Rivers, SD91.8-1.6-14.93.779.0671102.246.5---71.7 sux
4Drew Brees, NO96.93.1-24.75.180.4776114.950.5---70.5 awesome
5Nick Foles, PHI48.65.3-15.23.342.042961.425.7---69.0 becoming awesome
6Aaron Rodgers, GB42.46.9-14.62.937.636551.821.5---68.7 awesome
7Colin Kaepernick, SF64.218.6-23.12.562.259283.834.7---68.6 sux
8Jay Cutler, CHI42.36.0-10.20.138.241555.821.4---66.4 sux
9Andrew Luck, IND42.821.2-21.412.655.372086.626.8---62.0 jury is still out
10Matt Ryan, ATL77.24.0-27.510.363.977390.926.8---61.1 sux

11Tom Brady, NE76.11.6-25.812.864.774988.025.9---61.1 awesome
12Josh McCown, CHI41.35.9-5.22.544.626956.834.5---60.1 sat up in coffin, will lay back down soon
13Russell Wilson, SEA62.611.6-28.10.346.360667.216.9---58.9 sux
14Cam Newton, CAR51.921.0-30.95.447.465267.012.9---56.2 sux
15Andy Dalton, CIN55.14.6-16.65.248.471572.813.5---55.8 sux
Those are official evaluations.

Okie Dokie. Guess serious football talk is still on hold?

 

[Afigueroa22]

How much merit can a rating system have if it has one of the greatest single season performances by a QB (Manning) below Josh McCown? Not to mention Foles had a better year as well.

 

[DFWJC]

Regular QB ratings and ESPN's QBR are both pretty flawed.

I think yards per attempt and TD/INT ratio gets discounted and total yards gets boosted some in ESPNs QBR.

 

[BlindFaith]

How much merit can a rating system have if it has one of the greatest single season performances by a QB (Manning) below Josh McCown? Not to mention Foles had a better year as well.

That's the key. It's not just about how many yards or how many TDs a QB throws.

But even look at McCown's numbers. He played very well in those 8 games.

Look at the All Time Best Seasons for QBR. Its a whose who of the best QBs. There are some shockers in there like McCown, Gerrard and Young, but for the most part the guys on the list are the best.

 

[BlindFaith]

Regular QB ratings and ESPN's QBR are both pretty flawed.

I think yards per attempt and TD/INT ratio gets discounted and total yards gets boosted some in ESPNs QBR.

Take a read of what QBR actually is.

"What underlies QBR is an understanding of how football works and a lot of detailed situational data. What it yields are results that should reflect that. It illustrates that converting on third-and-long is important to a quarterback. It shows that a pass that is in the air for 40 yards is more reflective of a quarterback than a pass that is in the air for 5 yards and the receiver has 35 yards of run after the catch. These premises should sound reasonable to football fans. They come out of a lot of statistical analysis, but they are also consistent with what coaches and players understand."

 

[DFWJC]

Take a read of what QBR actually is.

"What underlies QBR is an understanding of how football works and a lot of detailed situational data. What it yields are results that should reflect that. It illustrates that converting on third-and-long is important to a quarterback. It shows that a pass that is in the air for 40 yards is more reflective of a quarterback than a pass that is in the air for 5 yards and the receiver has 35 yards of run after the catch. These premises should sound reasonable to football fans. They come out of a lot of statistical analysis, but they are also consistent with what coaches and players understand."

yeah, I know ESPN likes their QBR and is always stating it represents the game better (in their opinion)...

Still, for example, notice that

Matt Ryan (26 TD, 17 INT, 6.94 ypa, 89.6 regular QB rating)
is rated ahead of
Tony Romo (31 TD, 10 INT, 7.16 ypa, 96.7 regular QB rating)

At least in 2013, there is no way in hell Ryan was better than Romo....and that is not even including "real" football things like game-winning drives, etc....which Romo was far better at in 2013 than Ryan was.

For the most part though, you usually find the same top 15 or so in both rating systems...just in different order.

 

[Section446]

Pretty useless stat.

 

[BlindFaith]

Regular QB ratings and ESPN's QBR are both pretty flawed.

I think yards per attempt and TD/INT ratio gets discounted and total yards gets boosted some in ESPNs QBR.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6909058/nfl-total-qbr-faq

"Another important design factor for Total QBR was that it be difficult to "game the system." We heard frequently that quarterbacks knew how the NFL Passer Rating worked, so they would try to maximize their Passer Rating even if it didn't help their team win. Total QBR is built upon team success, then broken down to the quarterback contribution, so that a quarterback's incentives and his team goals are better aligned. Racking up lots of yards in a meaningless situation doesn't help a QB in QBR like it did with NFL Passer Rating. Going back again to what an NFL GM would like, aligning a quarterback's statistical performance with that of the team helps make contract negotiation easier."

"How QBR "relates to winning" is a question that can be interpreted various ways. One way that we addressed this on TV was that the team winning the QBR battle within a game wins the game 86% of the time. Teams that win the turnover battle don't win this often. Teams that win the NFL Passer Rating battle don't win this often. This result is primarily emphasizing that QBR is capturing team results and that quarterbacks performance is quite important to that."

 

[BlindFaith]

yeah, I know ESPN likes their QBR and is always stating it represents the game better (in their opinion)...

Still, for example, notice that

Matt Ryan (26 TD, 17 INT, 6.94 ypa, 89.6 regular QB rating)
is rated ahead of
Tony Romo (31 TD, 10 INT, 7.16 ypa, 96.7 regular QB rating)

At least in 2013, there is no way in hell Ryan was better than Romo....and that is not even including "real" football things like game-winning drives, etc....which Romo was far better at in 2013 than Ryan was.

For the most part though, you usually find the same top 15 or so in both rating systems...just in different order.

That's the thing about QBR, its not just about stats. Its shows how effective a QB is in certain situations. Being down by 30 in the fourth quarter is not the same as being down by 3. It's alot easier to get yards when a defense is playing prevent or not trying as hard.

QBR also focuses more on sacks and what was the real cause for the sack. Did the QB hold the ball too long? It also addresses who is really responsible for an incompletion. Did the WR simply drop the ball? Was it overthrown? It also addresses dumping the ball off for 5 yards and then the RB/WR running 60 yards for the score.

 

[BlindFaith]

Pretty useless stat.

Looks pretty good to me. I'd maybe weed out the 3 or 4 guys that had 325 or less ACT Plays as the sample size is only about half of that of the others on the list. But it still doesn't mean that those players with 325 or less didn't have good years.

All-Time* NFL Leaders
RKPLAYERYEARPASS EPARUN EPASACK EPAPEN EPATOTAL EPAACT PLAYSQB PARQB PAATOTAL QBR
1Peyton Manning, IND2006112.95.1-8.93.1112.3635142.489.787.2
2Tom Brady, NE2007106.97.7-11.24.0107.4687153.496.387.1
3Aaron Rodgers, GB2011104.911.5-17.68.1107.0665148.493.287.1
4Josh McCown, CHI201341.35.9-5.22.544.626956.834.585.1
5Drew Brees, NO2011117.41.7-13.02.5108.6752150.187.783.0
6Peyton Manning, DEN2013117.3-2.2-10.85.4109.7757151.088.282.9
7Peyton Manning, IND200997.4-1.0-7.24.693.8639127.073.982.8
8Peyton Manning, DEN201296.31.2-12.79.894.5690135.878.682.4
9Drew Brees, NO200989.23.6-14.42.380.7600112.562.780.4
10Peyton Manning, IND200894.6-1.7-7.23.088.6636116.063.279.3

11Peyton Manning, IND200783.7-0.1-10.64.377.3591105.456.378.4
12Philip Rivers, SD200986.50.8-16.17.878.9588104.455.678.2
13Tom Brady, NE201294.82.0-14.09.292.0738129.468.277.7
14Tom Brady, NE201078.20.6-12.63.970.1594102.453.177.0
15David Garrard, JAX200757.18.5-11.91.555.142773.237.776.7
16Matt Ryan, ATL201292.78.5-18.24.087.0714117.057.774.8
17Aaron Rodgers, GB201293.613.7-30.210.587.6725118.558.374.7
18Matt Ryan, ATL200866.8-4.7-7.28.663.655187.741.973.6
19Robert Griffin III, WSH201266.311.5-17.06.367.258993.044.173.2
20Tom Brady, NE2011103.51.3-19.22.688.1750117.555.373.0

21Chad Pennington, MIA200879.02.8-15.31.868.355987.040.672.6
22Matt Schaub, HOU200989.4-4.4-12.02.875.9673104.648.772.6
23Colin Kaepernick, SF201235.810.0-9.9-2.433.631548.622.472.2
24Ben Roethlisberger, PIT200779.69.5-30.2-0.957.951278.836.372.2
25Jay Cutler, DEN200881.82.8-5.31.881.1722110.951.072.1
26Brett Favre, MIN200988.2-0.9-20.90.867.363196.544.171.9
27Russell Wilson, SEA201267.118.9-21.05.270.258889.640.871.7
28Peyton Manning, IND201086.40.9-9.78.285.8765116.553.071.7
29Philip Rivers, SD201391.8-1.6-14.93.779.0671102.246.571.7
30Tony Romo, DAL200785.03.7-16.42.574.863795.842.971.2

31Aaron Rodgers, GB201076.511.0-18.71.570.461090.840.270.7
32Matt Ryan, ATL201080.51.3-15.19.376.0688102.145.070.6
33Drew Brees, NO201396.93.1-24.75.180.4776114.950.570.5
34Matt Ryan, ATL201174.13.3-16.47.368.367999.242.869.9
35Kurt Warner, ARI200882.4-2.8-15.91.164.8687100.143.169.9
36Aaron Rodgers, GB200981.916.5-31.65.472.2706102.543.969.7
37Tony Romo, DAL201184.20.0-20.71.264.762990.938.769.5
38Alex Smith, SF201236.03.3-12.02.029.429542.618.169.4
39Nick Foles, PHI201348.65.3-15.23.342.042961.425.769.0
40Eli Manning, NYG201262.70.5-10.17.160.262889.637.568.9

41Aaron Rodgers, GB201342.46.9-14.62.937.636551.821.568.7
42Colin Kaepernick, SF201364.218.6-23.12.562.259283.834.768.6
43Vince Young, TEN200934.87.7-6.1-0.536.034148.320.068.6
44Tony Romo, DAL200659.3-0.1-15.92.145.443160.925.168.5
45Philip Rivers, SD200871.20.1-16.63.157.858380.231.867.4
46Jeff Garcia, TB200849.810.1-13.1-1.145.845362.324.767.4
47Eli Manning, NYG200965.4-0.2-16.53.552.260282.632.767.3
Matt Schaub, HOU201141.61.0-9.21.034.334347.018.667.3
49Michael Vick, PHI201050.017.9-20.62.750.153573.228.867.2
50Brett Favre, GB200772.3-2.4-10.33.563.162585.133.267.0

 

[BlindFaith]

I think what we see in the QBR vs the Passer Rating is what causes the big rift amongst the opinions on Romo.

One group sees the big numbers. One group sees how he actually plays in certain situations and how those big numbers where accumulated. And even statistically, by passer rating, Romo was only 8th best this year.

I don't want this to turn into a bash Romo thing. For me, this rating reflects more to where I see Romo ranked among other QBs and helps explain why. I can certainly see why many see Romo as a top 3 guy, based on the stats he's put up and why there is such a broad range of opinions on him.

There is no such argument about Manning, Brees, Brady or Rodgers. And the QBR supports that.

 

[DFWJC]

I think what we see in the QBR vs the Passer Rating is what causes the big rift amongst the opinions on Romo.

One group sees the big numbers. One group sees how he actually plays in certain situations and how those big numbers where accumulated. And even statistically, by passer rating, Romo was only 8th best this year.

I don't want this to turn into a bash Romo thing. For me, this rating reflects more to where I see Romo ranked among other QBs and helps explain why. I can certainly see why many see Romo as a top 3 guy, based on the stats he's put up and why there is such a broad range of opinions on him.

There is no such argument about Manning, Brees, Brady or Rodgers. And the QBR supports that.

Who thinks Romo is a top 3 guy?

Also, how does this explain Matt Ryan this year?

 

[burmafrd]

I think what we see in the QBR vs the Passer Rating is what causes the big rift amongst the opinions on Romo.

One group sees the big numbers. One group sees how he actually plays in certain situations and how those big numbers where accumulated. And even statistically, by passer rating, Romo was only 8th best this year.

I don't want this to turn into a bash Romo thing. For me, this rating reflects more to where I see Romo ranked among other QBs and helps explain why. I can certainly see why many see Romo as a top 3 guy, based on the stats he's put up and why there is such a broad range of opinions on him.

There is no such argument about Manning, Brees, Brady or Rodgers. And the QBR supports that.

you keep ignoring Ryan. Wonder why?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6909058/nfl-total-qbr-faq

"Another important design factor for Total QBR was that it be difficult to "game the system." We heard frequently that quarterbacks knew how the NFL Passer Rating worked, so they would try to maximize their Passer Rating even if it didn't help their team win. Total QBR is built upon team success, then broken down to the quarterback contribution, so that a quarterback's incentives and his team goals are better aligned. Racking up lots of yards in a meaningless situation doesn't help a QB in QBR like it did with NFL Passer Rating. Going back again to what an NFL GM would like, aligning a quarterback's statistical performance with that of the team helps make contract negotiation easier."

"How QBR "relates to winning" is a question that can be interpreted various ways. One way that we addressed this on TV was that the team winning the QBR battle within a game wins the game 86% of the time. Teams that win the turnover battle don't win this often. Teams that win the NFL Passer Rating battle don't win this often. This result is primarily emphasizing that QBR is capturing team results and that quarterbacks performance is quite important to that."

They have admitted that the 'clutch' portion of their metric does not correlate to anything and I am still waiting for someone to show that play is metrically different in 'close and late' versus any other time. When they say 'meaningless' they should punch themselves in the face for being cherry picking hand wavers at something they have not demonstrated to be meaningful.

 

[BlindFaith]

Who thinks Romo is a top 3 guy?

Also, how does this explain Matt Ryan this year?

Why didnt you post Ryans passing yards and completion percentage? Because both were better than Romos?
Both had virtually the same QBR. But Romo had a higher passer rating.
I didnt watch Ryan play. I know Jones was out all year and White was out alot. What the QBR shows is that Ryan and Romo were almost the same value to the sucess of the team.
I havent researched each category breakdown of the qbr. I know it uses very similar formulas as Advanced Stats and other more intrinsic ratings.

 

[BlindFaith]

They have admitted that the 'clutch' portion of their metric does not correlate to anything and I am still waiting for someone to show that play is metrically different in 'close and late' versus any other time. When they say 'meaningless' they should punch themselves in the face for being cherry picking hand wavers at something they have not demonstrated to be meaningful.

Can you provide a link for this? Not trying to dog you. Id like to read up on any arguments against it.

 

[dstovall5]

Joke of a stat, and not because Romo is ranked 12th.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Can you provide a link for this? Not trying to dog you. Id like to read up on any arguments against it.

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/06/why-clutch-is-overrated/258179/

Here is a start explaining what I am getting at in general. QBR uses win probabilities in certain circumstances and takes the stances that a score when the game is close and late and thus the points that put them in that position are not as meaningful for some reason.

The issue in this is not just that they are grandstanding on human emotions. The issue is that they have not demonstrated that performance in general differs during those times. In essence, they are grandstanding on noise in the system.

While that last minute TD score seems oh so meaningful, when you are looking at the final score the first TD counted towards the final score just as much as one on the first quarter and discounting one late as being more 'meaningful' is baseless. Without that first quarter score the end result is still the same.